Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports (02020) maintains a high level of prosperity in outdoor apparel, professional sports, and women's apparel sectors, with unique brand operation and growth planning, suggesting continued attention to the company. The buy rating is maintained with a target price of HKD 98.0 [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Anta's sales revenue achieved single-digit positive growth year-on-year, with a stable performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival [2] - The company revised its full-year revenue expectation for the Anta brand from +MSD to +LSD, while maintaining FILA's target at +MSD and other brands at +40% [2] - Other brands experienced significant growth, with a combined year-on-year increase of approximately 55%, including Descente at 30%, Kolon at 70%, and MAIA at 45% [2] Group 2: Profitability and Brand Matrix - The profitability contribution from professional and outdoor brands is increasing, with operating profit margins continuing to rise [3] - Operating profit for other brands turned positive in 2020 and is expected to reach 28.6% in 2024, increasing to 33.2% in H1 2025 (up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year) [3] - The operating profit share rose from 2.1% in 2020 to 18.4% in 2024, with further growth to 24.3% in H1 2025 [3] - The acquisition of the Wolf Paw brand in April and the establishment of a joint venture with Musinsa in September are expected to enrich the brand matrix and expand opportunities in the fashion sector [3] Group 3: Revenue Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 783.1 billion, 867.2 billion, and 942.3 billion for FY25E to FY27E, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.6%, 10.7%, and 8.7% respectively [4] - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be RMB 132.5 billion, 152.3 billion, and 168.9 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 11.2%, 14.9%, and 10.9% (excluding equity investment income) [4] - The target price of HKD 98.0 corresponds to a PE ratio of approximately 18.8 times for FY25E and a static PE of about 16 times, indicating an expected price increase of 21.8% from the current price [4]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports (02020) maintains a high level of prosperity in outdoor apparel, professional sports, and women's apparel sectors, with unique brand operation and growth strategies, suggesting continued attention to the company [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Anta's sales achieved single-digit positive growth year-on-year, with a stable performance during the Double Eleven shopping festival [2] - The company revised its full-year revenue forecast for the Anta brand from +MSD to +LSD, while maintaining FILA's growth target at +MSD and other brands at +40% [2] - Other brands experienced significant growth, with a combined year-on-year increase of approximately 55%, including Descente at 30%, Kolon at 70%, and MAIA at 45% [2] Group 2: Profitability and Brand Matrix - The profitability contribution from professional and outdoor brands is increasing, with operating profit margins expected to rise from 2.1% in 2020 to 18.4% in 2024, and further to 24.3% by H1 2025 [3] - The company acquired the Jack Wolfskin brand to expand its outdoor brand matrix and plans to revitalize it over the next 3-5 years [3] - A joint venture with the Korean fashion platform Musinsa was established to explore opportunities in the fashion sector, enhancing the overall brand matrix [3] Group 3: Revenue Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 783.1 billion, 867.2 billion, and 942.3 billion yuan for FY25E to FY27E, with year-on-year growth rates of +10.6%, +10.7%, and +8.7% respectively [4] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is 132.5 billion, 152.3 billion, and 168.9 billion yuan, with growth rates of +11.2%, +14.9%, and +10.9% (excluding equity investment income) [4] - The target price is set at 98.0 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 18.8 times for FY25E and a static PE of about 16 times, indicating a projected price increase of 21.8% from the current price [4]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Sports (02020) maintains a "Buy" rating and a target price of HKD 112.89, supported by strong performance from its affiliate Amer Sports, Inc, particularly during the Double Eleven shopping festival [1] Performance Summary - Amer Sports reported a 30% year-on-year revenue growth and a 22% increase in operating profit for Q3 2025, exceeding market expectations [1] - All four major global markets for Amer achieved double-digit revenue growth, with the Greater China region seeing a remarkable 47% year-on-year revenue increase [1] - Amer has raised its full-year revenue growth forecast for 2025 from 20%-21% to 23%-24%, reflecting strong operational capabilities post-acquisition [1] Brand Performance - Fila, Descente, and KOLON brands showed strong performance during the recent Double Eleven event, with Fila ranking first in Tmall's sports and outdoor sales [2] - The company expects Fila's revenue to achieve mid-single-digit growth for the full year 2025, while other brands are projected to grow over 40% [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2027, estimating earnings per share of 4.69, 5.29, and 6.02 RMB respectively [3] - Based on comparable companies, a 22x PE valuation for 2025 leads to a target price of HKD 112.89, maintaining a "Buy" rating [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports Products Limited (2020 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 110.90, reflecting a potential upside of 26.3% from the closing price of HKD 87.80 [2][5][9]. Core Insights - The third quarter performance showed weak revenue growth, leading management to lower the full-year guidance and adjust profit forecasts downwards. The main brand, Anta, is expected to see low single-digit growth, while FILA and other brands maintain mid-single-digit and over 40% growth expectations respectively [3][9]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 1-3% due to a slowdown in industry recovery and increased competition, resulting in a 5-10% decrease in net profit projections for the same period [9][10]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term growth potential of the multi-brand strategy and operational resilience in a complex environment are viewed positively [9][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections (in million RMB) for the years ending December 31 are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 - 2024: 70,826 - 2025E: 78,080 - 2026E: 85,159 - 2027E: 91,473 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline from 16.2% in 2023 to 7.4% in 2027 [4][21]. - Net profit projections (in million RMB) are as follows: - 2023: 10,236 - 2024: 15,596 - 2025E: 13,320 - 2026E: 14,804 - 2027E: 15,927 - The expected earnings per share (in RMB) are projected to be 3.57 in 2023, increasing to 5.50 by 2027 [4][21]. Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue growth is expected to be low single-digit, with inventory turnover slightly above five months. The company is optimizing its channels, having completed around 100 store renovations [9][10]. - FILA's revenue growth has slowed to low single digits, with inventory turnover increasing to about six months due to preparations for the Double Eleven shopping festival [9][10]. - Other brands, such as Descente and KOLON, continue to show strong growth, with respective revenue increases of approximately 30% and 70% in the third quarter [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" [2][5][10] Core Views - In Q3 2025, Anta's main brand and FILA achieved low single-digit growth, while other brands experienced a significant growth of 45-50%. The overall growth of the Anta Group remains stable, but the growth rate has slowed compared to Q2 [3][4][6] - The management has lowered the annual revenue guidance for the Anta brand but maintained the operating profit margin guidance and revenue growth guidance for FILA and other brands [4][5][10] - The consumer market continues to face pressure, and the management has adjusted the annual guidance to low single-digit growth due to uncertainties in the fourth quarter [5][10] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit revenue growth, while FILA also achieved low single-digit growth. Other brands continued their high growth trajectory [3][4] - The inventory turnover ratio is healthy, influenced by promotional stock preparations, with the end-of-quarter inventory turnover ratio approaching six months [4][6] Brand Performance - Anta brand's Q3 revenue growth was low single-digit, with online discounts slightly increasing and stable offline discounts. The performance of running shoes and technological new products was notable [6][7] - FILA's Q3 revenue growth was also low single-digit, with a healthy inventory turnover ratio and stable discount rates [8] - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, saw revenue growth of 45-50%, with Descente growing approximately 30% and KOLON growing 70% [9][10] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit for Anta from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 13.24 billion, 15.22 billion, and 17.16 billion yuan respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of 11.0%, 15.0%, and 12.7% [5][12] - The reasonable valuation range is adjusted to 116-121 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 23-24X for 2025 [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The controversy surrounding the "Anatomy of the Ancestor Bird" event has negatively impacted Anta Sports' stock performance and raised concerns about its ESG ratings due to governance and ecological risk management failures [2][3][4][5] Company Performance - Anta Sports' stock price fell by 2.22% on September 22 and continued to decline by 0.95% on September 23, bringing its total market capitalization to 263.2 billion HKD [3] - The company reported a revenue of 38.544 billion CNY in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.031 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.9% [7] ESG Considerations - The incident has the potential to negatively affect Anta Sports' ESG ratings, particularly in environmental and governance dimensions, as sub-brands' actions are included in the overall assessment [4][5] - The response to the controversy will significantly influence the extent of the impact on Anta's ESG ratings, with effective remedial actions potentially mitigating negative effects [5] Multi-Brand Strategy - Anta Sports has pursued an aggressive multi-brand acquisition strategy, acquiring brands such as Amer Sports, FILA, and Descente, which has contributed to revenue growth [7][8] - However, the complexity of managing multiple brands has led to increased operational challenges, including a rise in average inventory turnover days to 136 days, an increase of 22 days compared to the previous year [8][9] Market Challenges - The competitive landscape in the sportswear industry is intensifying, with Anta facing challenges in maintaining brand identity and operational efficiency across its diverse portfolio [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Negative public opinion is currently limited to the brand Arc'teryx, which is owned by Anta's joint venture partner Amer Sports [1] - Anta's direct outdoor brands, Descente and Kolon, are likely to be minimally affected [1] - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating on Anta with a target price of HKD 111.60 [1] Company Analysis - The negative sentiment surrounding Arc'teryx does not extend to Anta's other brands [1] - The impact on Anta's direct brands is expected to be negligible, indicating resilience in its portfolio [1] Market Outlook - Citigroup's positive outlook on Anta suggests confidence in the company's performance despite external challenges [1] - The target price reflects potential growth opportunities within the market [1]

Group 1 - The company achieved a revenue growth of 14.3% in the first half of the year despite a relatively weak domestic discretionary consumption environment, with Anta brand, Fila brand, and other brands growing by 5.4%, 8.6%, and 61.1% respectively [1] - The overall operating profit margin increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to refined operations, optimized resource allocation, and an increase in government subsidies [1] - Anta and Fila are expected to maintain steady growth, with each brand projected to sustain a scale of around 30 billion, supported by strategies focused on brand innovation and overseas market expansion [2] Group 2 - Other brands, primarily Descente and KOLON, are anticipated to maintain rapid growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 30% in revenue over the next three years, becoming a significant growth driver for the company [2] - The company is recognized as one of the few truly multi-brand, international, and long-term oriented global sportswear leaders, with positive expectations for the integration of the newly acquired Wolf Claw brand [2] - The earnings forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 being 4.80, 5.54, and 6.21 RMB respectively, and a target price of 135.86 HKD based on a 26x PE valuation for 2025 [3]

Core Insights - Anta Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 38.54 billion, marking a 14.3% year-on-year increase and setting a new historical high, maintaining its position as the leading sportswear brand in China [2][13] - The combined revenue of Anta Group and Amer Sports exceeded RMB 100 billion, with Anta's revenue surpassing that of its competitors, including Nike China and Adidas China [2][4] Revenue Performance - Anta brand revenue was RMB 16.95 billion, up 5.4% year-on-year; FILA revenue was RMB 14.18 billion, up 8.6%; other brands, including Kolon and Descente, generated RMB 7.41 billion, a significant increase of 61.1% [4] - Amer Sports reported revenue of USD 2.709 billion, a 23.5% increase, with Greater China revenue growing by 42.4% to USD 856 million [4] Store Efficiency and Growth - Anta Group's revenue increased by 163% from RMB 14.669 billion in H1 2020 to RMB 38.544 billion in H1 2025, while the number of stores remained relatively stable, indicating a significant improvement in retail efficiency [6] - New store formats such as "Anta Arena Level" and "FILA Fusion" have enhanced consumer experience and targeted customer engagement [8] Strategic Initiatives - Anta Group emphasizes a strategy of "multi-brand assets + excellent operations + global collaboration" for sustainable growth, including acquisitions of high-potential brands and establishing joint ventures [11] - The acquisition of the German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin is expected to become a significant revenue growth point in the outdoor sector [11] Research and Development - R&D investment for H1 2025 remained stable at RMB 1 billion, with a cumulative investment of RMB 20 billion over the past decade, and plans for an additional RMB 20 billion over the next five years [12] - Anta Group has established seven design and R&D centers globally, collaborating with over 70 universities and research institutions [12] ESG Performance - Anta Group was included in the Hang Seng ESG 50 Index and ranked in the top 6% of global textile, apparel, and luxury goods companies in the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment [12] Competitive Landscape - Among China's major sportswear brands, Anta led with a 14.3% revenue growth, while Li Ning reported a 3.3% increase, indicating a strong competitive position [13] - Recent market rumors suggest potential acquisition interest in Puma by Chinese brands, including Anta, although the company has not commented on these speculations [15]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group reported strong financial results for the first half of the year, with revenue reaching 38.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and net profit of 7.031 billion yuan, up 14.5% [1][4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of the year was 38.544 billion yuan, representing a 14.3% increase year-on-year [1] - Net profit reached 7.031 billion yuan, marking a 14.5% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Operating profit was 10.131 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17% [1] - Operating profit margin stood at 26.3%, exceeding market expectations [1] Strategic Focus - The company maintains a "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy, aiming to meet diverse consumer needs across different segments and scenarios [1][4] - Anta and FILA, the two main brands, both achieved revenue exceeding 30 billion yuan, demonstrating resilience and growth above industry averages [4] - Other brands, including Descente and Kolon Sport, also reported strong and high-quality growth [4] Investment and Acquisition Strategy - Anta Group plans to invest in MUSINSA China, holding a 40% stake, to align with young consumer trends and explore the integration of the fashion and sports industries [2][7] - The acquisition strategy focuses on two types of opportunities: acquiring brands with strong value and genes, and investing in high-potential emerging brands [8] - The company emphasizes the importance of not only acquiring well but also managing and collaborating effectively to enhance market competitiveness [8] Long-term Vision - Anta aims to become a world-leading multi-brand sports goods group, contributing to the construction of a strong sports nation in China [6][7] - The company has signed contracts to support 36 Chinese national teams, reflecting its commitment to social responsibility and value creation for stakeholders [6] - Anta's stock has appreciated nearly 20 times since its listing in Hong Kong in 2007, indicating a focus on long-term stakeholder benefits rather than short-term gains [7]