盈利预测与投资建议 智通财经APP获悉，东方证券发布研报称，维持安踏体育(02020)"买入"评级和目标价112.89港币，其联 营企业Amer Sports, Inc(亚玛芬体育)三季度业绩优异，公司旗下Fila、迪桑特、可隆等品牌在双十一表现强 劲，增长动力充足，体现了公司多品牌全球化的运营能力。 东方证券主要观点如下： 业绩表现 公司联营企业Amer(公司是其第一大股东)近日公布25年第三季度的经营业绩，营收同比增长30%，营业 利润同比增长22%，整体超过之前市场的预计。第三季度亚玛芬在全球四大区域市场均实现双位数营收 增长。其中，亚玛芬大中华区实现营收同比增长47%。伴随三季报，Amer同时上调25年全年的收入增 速由之前的20%-21%至23%-24%。该行认为Amer优异的三季报再次展现了公司收购其以后在全球化、 多品牌方面优秀的运营能力(除了始祖鸟，Amer旗下的萨洛蒙和威尔胜也开始焕发强劲的增长潜能)，同 时也部分反映之前的烟花事件对实际的销售影响相对有限。从财务角度，Amer业绩优异为安踏公司投 资收益提供了良好的保障。 Fila保持稳健增长，以迪桑特和可隆为首的其他品牌有望延续高增态势， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports Products Limited (2020 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 110.90, reflecting a potential upside of 26.3% from the closing price of HKD 87.80 [2][5][9]. Core Insights - The third quarter performance showed weak revenue growth, leading management to lower the full-year guidance and adjust profit forecasts downwards. The main brand, Anta, is expected to see low single-digit growth, while FILA and other brands maintain mid-single-digit and over 40% growth expectations respectively [3][9]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been reduced by 1-3% due to a slowdown in industry recovery and increased competition, resulting in a 5-10% decrease in net profit projections for the same period [9][10]. - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term growth potential of the multi-brand strategy and operational resilience in a complex environment are viewed positively [9][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections (in million RMB) for the years ending December 31 are as follows: - 2023: 62,356 - 2024: 70,826 - 2025E: 78,080 - 2026E: 85,159 - 2027E: 91,473 - Year-on-year growth rates are expected to decline from 16.2% in 2023 to 7.4% in 2027 [4][21]. - Net profit projections (in million RMB) are as follows: - 2023: 10,236 - 2024: 15,596 - 2025E: 13,320 - 2026E: 14,804 - 2027E: 15,927 - The expected earnings per share (in RMB) are projected to be 3.57 in 2023, increasing to 5.50 by 2027 [4][21]. Brand Performance - Anta brand revenue growth is expected to be low single-digit, with inventory turnover slightly above five months. The company is optimizing its channels, having completed around 100 store renovations [9][10]. - FILA's revenue growth has slowed to low single digits, with inventory turnover increasing to about six months due to preparations for the Double Eleven shopping festival [9][10]. - Other brands, such as Descente and KOLON, continue to show strong growth, with respective revenue increases of approximately 30% and 70% in the third quarter [9][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" [2][5][10] Core Views - In Q3 2025, Anta's main brand and FILA achieved low single-digit growth, while other brands experienced a significant growth of 45-50%. The overall growth of the Anta Group remains stable, but the growth rate has slowed compared to Q2 [3][4][6] - The management has lowered the annual revenue guidance for the Anta brand but maintained the operating profit margin guidance and revenue growth guidance for FILA and other brands [4][5][10] - The consumer market continues to face pressure, and the management has adjusted the annual guidance to low single-digit growth due to uncertainties in the fourth quarter [5][10] Summary by Sections Q3 Performance - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit revenue growth, while FILA also achieved low single-digit growth. Other brands continued their high growth trajectory [3][4] - The inventory turnover ratio is healthy, influenced by promotional stock preparations, with the end-of-quarter inventory turnover ratio approaching six months [4][6] Brand Performance - Anta brand's Q3 revenue growth was low single-digit, with online discounts slightly increasing and stable offline discounts. The performance of running shoes and technological new products was notable [6][7] - FILA's Q3 revenue growth was also low single-digit, with a healthy inventory turnover ratio and stable discount rates [8] - Other brands, including Descente and KOLON, saw revenue growth of 45-50%, with Descente growing approximately 30% and KOLON growing 70% [9][10] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit for Anta from 2025 to 2027 is adjusted to 13.24 billion, 15.22 billion, and 17.16 billion yuan respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of 11.0%, 15.0%, and 12.7% [5][12] - The reasonable valuation range is adjusted to 116-121 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 23-24X for 2025 [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The controversy surrounding the "Anatomy of the Ancestor Bird" event has negatively impacted Anta Sports' stock performance and raised concerns about its ESG ratings due to governance and ecological risk management failures [2][3][4][5] Company Performance - Anta Sports' stock price fell by 2.22% on September 22 and continued to decline by 0.95% on September 23, bringing its total market capitalization to 263.2 billion HKD [3] - The company reported a revenue of 38.544 billion CNY in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.031 billion CNY, a decrease of 8.9% [7] ESG Considerations - The incident has the potential to negatively affect Anta Sports' ESG ratings, particularly in environmental and governance dimensions, as sub-brands' actions are included in the overall assessment [4][5] - The response to the controversy will significantly influence the extent of the impact on Anta's ESG ratings, with effective remedial actions potentially mitigating negative effects [5] Multi-Brand Strategy - Anta Sports has pursued an aggressive multi-brand acquisition strategy, acquiring brands such as Amer Sports, FILA, and Descente, which has contributed to revenue growth [7][8] - However, the complexity of managing multiple brands has led to increased operational challenges, including a rise in average inventory turnover days to 136 days, an increase of 22 days compared to the previous year [8][9] Market Challenges - The competitive landscape in the sportswear industry is intensifying, with Anta facing challenges in maintaining brand identity and operational efficiency across its diverse portfolio [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Negative public opinion is currently limited to the brand Arc'teryx, which is owned by Anta's joint venture partner Amer Sports [1] - Anta's direct outdoor brands, Descente and Kolon, are likely to be minimally affected [1] - Citigroup maintains a "Buy" rating on Anta with a target price of HKD 111.60 [1] Company Analysis - The negative sentiment surrounding Arc'teryx does not extend to Anta's other brands [1] - The impact on Anta's direct brands is expected to be negligible, indicating resilience in its portfolio [1] Market Outlook - Citigroup's positive outlook on Anta suggests confidence in the company's performance despite external challenges [1] - The target price reflects potential growth opportunities within the market [1]

Group 1 - The company achieved a revenue growth of 14.3% in the first half of the year despite a relatively weak domestic discretionary consumption environment, with Anta brand, Fila brand, and other brands growing by 5.4%, 8.6%, and 61.1% respectively [1] - The overall operating profit margin increased by 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to refined operations, optimized resource allocation, and an increase in government subsidies [1] - Anta and Fila are expected to maintain steady growth, with each brand projected to sustain a scale of around 30 billion, supported by strategies focused on brand innovation and overseas market expansion [2] Group 2 - Other brands, primarily Descente and KOLON, are anticipated to maintain rapid growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate of over 30% in revenue over the next three years, becoming a significant growth driver for the company [2] - The company is recognized as one of the few truly multi-brand, international, and long-term oriented global sportswear leaders, with positive expectations for the integration of the newly acquired Wolf Claw brand [2] - The earnings forecast for the company has been slightly adjusted, with expected earnings per share for 2025-2027 being 4.80, 5.54, and 6.21 RMB respectively, and a target price of 135.86 HKD based on a 26x PE valuation for 2025 [3]

Core Insights - Anta Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 38.54 billion, marking a 14.3% year-on-year increase and setting a new historical high, maintaining its position as the leading sportswear brand in China [2][13] - The combined revenue of Anta Group and Amer Sports exceeded RMB 100 billion, with Anta's revenue surpassing that of its competitors, including Nike China and Adidas China [2][4] Revenue Performance - Anta brand revenue was RMB 16.95 billion, up 5.4% year-on-year; FILA revenue was RMB 14.18 billion, up 8.6%; other brands, including Kolon and Descente, generated RMB 7.41 billion, a significant increase of 61.1% [4] - Amer Sports reported revenue of USD 2.709 billion, a 23.5% increase, with Greater China revenue growing by 42.4% to USD 856 million [4] Store Efficiency and Growth - Anta Group's revenue increased by 163% from RMB 14.669 billion in H1 2020 to RMB 38.544 billion in H1 2025, while the number of stores remained relatively stable, indicating a significant improvement in retail efficiency [6] - New store formats such as "Anta Arena Level" and "FILA Fusion" have enhanced consumer experience and targeted customer engagement [8] Strategic Initiatives - Anta Group emphasizes a strategy of "multi-brand assets + excellent operations + global collaboration" for sustainable growth, including acquisitions of high-potential brands and establishing joint ventures [11] - The acquisition of the German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin is expected to become a significant revenue growth point in the outdoor sector [11] Research and Development - R&D investment for H1 2025 remained stable at RMB 1 billion, with a cumulative investment of RMB 20 billion over the past decade, and plans for an additional RMB 20 billion over the next five years [12] - Anta Group has established seven design and R&D centers globally, collaborating with over 70 universities and research institutions [12] ESG Performance - Anta Group was included in the Hang Seng ESG 50 Index and ranked in the top 6% of global textile, apparel, and luxury goods companies in the S&P Global Corporate Sustainability Assessment [12] Competitive Landscape - Among China's major sportswear brands, Anta led with a 14.3% revenue growth, while Li Ning reported a 3.3% increase, indicating a strong competitive position [13] - Recent market rumors suggest potential acquisition interest in Puma by Chinese brands, including Anta, although the company has not commented on these speculations [15]

Core Viewpoint - Anta Group reported strong financial results for the first half of the year, with revenue reaching 38.544 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%, and net profit of 7.031 billion yuan, up 14.5% [1][4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of the year was 38.544 billion yuan, representing a 14.3% increase year-on-year [1] - Net profit reached 7.031 billion yuan, marking a 14.5% increase compared to the previous year [1] - Operating profit was 10.131 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17% [1] - Operating profit margin stood at 26.3%, exceeding market expectations [1] Strategic Focus - The company maintains a "single focus, multi-brand, globalization" strategy, aiming to meet diverse consumer needs across different segments and scenarios [1][4] - Anta and FILA, the two main brands, both achieved revenue exceeding 30 billion yuan, demonstrating resilience and growth above industry averages [4] - Other brands, including Descente and Kolon Sport, also reported strong and high-quality growth [4] Investment and Acquisition Strategy - Anta Group plans to invest in MUSINSA China, holding a 40% stake, to align with young consumer trends and explore the integration of the fashion and sports industries [2][7] - The acquisition strategy focuses on two types of opportunities: acquiring brands with strong value and genes, and investing in high-potential emerging brands [8] - The company emphasizes the importance of not only acquiring well but also managing and collaborating effectively to enhance market competitiveness [8] Long-term Vision - Anta aims to become a world-leading multi-brand sports goods group, contributing to the construction of a strong sports nation in China [6][7] - The company has signed contracts to support 36 Chinese national teams, reflecting its commitment to social responsibility and value creation for stakeholders [6] - Anta's stock has appreciated nearly 20 times since its listing in Hong Kong in 2007, indicating a focus on long-term stakeholder benefits rather than short-term gains [7]

Core Viewpoint - Anta is facing a critical question regarding the continuation of its Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy as both Nike and Adidas are reassessing their own DTC approaches amid slowing growth for Anta [1][3]. Group 1: Anta's Performance and Market Context - Anta's growth has begun to slow down, with its main brand and FILA showing only low to mid-single-digit growth in retail sales for Q2 2025, while emerging brands have seen growth rates of 50% to 65% [6][8]. - The overall sports goods market has been a growth highlight, with retail sales growth of 25.7% in the first five months of the year, compared to 15.2% the previous year [11]. - FILA's performance has been particularly disappointing, with a reported 6.8% growth in H1 2024, significantly lower than the main brand's 13.5% growth [7][10]. Group 2: DTC Strategy Insights - DTC, which allows brands to sell directly to consumers, was initially seen as a way to enhance growth and profitability, but its effectiveness is now under scrutiny as major brands like Nike and Adidas face challenges related to inventory and channel management [9][10]. - The DTC model can significantly increase gross margins by eliminating middlemen, allowing brands to retain a larger share of sales revenue [16][21]. - However, transitioning to a DTC model also increases operational costs, as brands must now cover expenses traditionally borne by distributors, which can pressure net profits if not managed efficiently [22][23]. Group 3: Anta's Unique DTC Approach - Anta's DTC strategy began in 2020 during a challenging market environment, allowing for a smoother transition and testing phase [29][30]. - FILA served as a successful testing ground for DTC, enabling Anta to validate its model with lower costs and risks [31][32]. - Unlike Nike and Adidas, Anta has maintained a higher number of franchise stores compared to direct stores, indicating a more integrated approach to DTC that does not completely abandon distributors [35][36].

Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing stable growth in its main brand and FILA, while all other brands are showing rapid growth driven by the outdoor sports trend [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the main brand recorded low single-digit year-on-year growth, while FILA achieved mid single-digit growth, and all other brands saw a significant increase of 50-55% [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the main brand achieved mid single-digit year-on-year growth, FILA recorded high single-digit growth, and all other brands experienced a growth rate of 60-65% [1]. - The main brand's retail growth in Q2 was slightly below expectations, prompting a focus on the effectiveness of online and offline channel enhancement plans [1]. Group 2: Brand Performance - FILA's Q2 retail growth was in line with expectations, achieving mid single-digit year-on-year growth [2]. - The outdoor industry is thriving, with high demand for premium outdoor brands like Descente and KOLON, contributing to the rapid growth of all other brands [2]. - Maia Active is gaining momentum, with a new endorsement deal and the launch of a Yoga Studio store format expected to enhance brand visibility [2]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is recognized as a leading player in the sports footwear and apparel industry, with a strong competitive edge and significant growth potential through multi-brand operations and overseas expansion [3]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 13.5 billion, 15.567 billion, and 17.163 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -13.44%, 15.31%, and 10.25% [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to the stability provided by its main brand and FILA, along with growth potential in the outdoor segment [3].