Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains a bullish outlook on Tesla, reiterating an "Overweight" rating and a target price of $410, despite recent volatility due to public disputes involving CEO Elon Musk and former President Donald Trump [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Tesla's stock experienced a significant decline of nearly 15% last week, with a record single-day loss exceeding 14% on Thursday, impacting major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq [2]. - As of 2025, Tesla's stock has dropped over 25% year-to-date [2]. Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the recent political tensions and the potential removal of electric vehicle tax credits will not significantly affect Tesla's long-term fundamentals [5]. - The firm believes that Tesla's leadership in AI, autonomous driving, and robotics positions it favorably for future growth, despite short-term market fluctuations [6][8]. Group 3: Key Growth Drivers - The core growth drivers identified by Morgan Stanley include Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, the Robotaxi network, and the Optimus AI humanoid robot, with the potential for the robotics market to surpass the global automotive market [8][11]. - The analysis suggests that the integration of advanced AI models and Tesla's Dojo supercomputer will enhance the capabilities of its products, further solidifying its market position [10][11]. Group 4: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley's bull case estimates a total valuation of $800 per share for Tesla, driven by various segments including automotive, energy, and mobility services [9]. - The base case valuation stands at $410, while the bear case estimates a value of $200, reflecting the potential volatility in Tesla's stock price based on market conditions [9].

Group 1 - China's Ministry of Commerce stated that as long as applications meet regulations, exports of rare earths will be approved, and this policy is not targeted at specific countries [1][10] - The tightening of rare earth export controls has led to significant disruptions in global high-tech supply chains, moving beyond typical trade friction [1][14] - The U.S. defense contractor Lockheed Martin has faced production halts of its F-35 fighter jets due to interruptions in the supply of high-performance neodymium-iron-boron magnets, resulting in losses of millions of dollars [2][14] Group 2 - Tesla is experiencing supply chain issues related to rare earth materials needed for its electric motors, threatening the production schedule of its Model series [4][14] - The German automotive industry, represented by major manufacturers like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen, warned that a disruption in Chinese rare earth supplies lasting over three months could lead to a large-scale paralysis of the European automotive industry [5][14] - Japanese automaker Suzuki had to suspend production at its Shizuoka plant due to a shortage of specific rare earth elements from China, highlighting the direct impact of supply chain tensions on manufacturing [5][14] Group 3 - The U.S. government's response to the rare earth control issue has been inconsistent, with President Trump pressuring China to ease export controls while simultaneously imposing technology sanctions [7][8] - This dual strategy of demanding rare earths while restricting technology reveals deep contradictions in U.S. policy, which has inadvertently spurred advancements in China's technology sector [8][12] - China's export control system for rare earths is based on international trade rules and aims to ensure the stability of global supply chains [10][16] Group 4 - The international competition over rare earths reflects a clash of national strategic thinking, with China having built the world's largest and most complete rare earth industry system over the past decade [12][16] - Despite having rich rare earth deposits, the U.S. remains heavily reliant on China for processing due to long-term neglect of domestic refining capabilities and environmental regulations [14][16] - The rare earth issue has become a focal point in global supply chain dynamics, emphasizing the vulnerabilities in high-tech industries such as electric vehicles, smartphones, and wind turbines [14][16]