Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. With both supply and demand decreasing, combined with the upward price transmission effects of coal and the photovoltaic industry chain, price support is evident. There is short-term potential for demand growth, which will boost prices. The upward price limit depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory clearance progress, while the downward limit is restricted by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates in the photovoltaic industry may stimulate short-term polysilicon exports, but it may also deplete medium- and long-term demand. After polysilicon enterprises were interviewed, the hope for coordinated price support was dashed, and the overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with downstream production capacity accelerating to clear. In the short term, attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and the January production plan; in the medium to long term, focus on the recovery of demand and inventory clearance progress [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,605 yuan/ton and closed at 8,845 yuan/ton, a change of 140 yuan/ton (1.61%) from the previous day's settlement. As of the close, the position of the 2605 main contract was 235,167 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on January 18, 2026, was 11,283 lots, a change of 144 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1]. - As of January 15, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 555,000 tons, a 0.54% increase from the previous week [1]. - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton. This week, polysilicon production cuts continued, providing limited support for industrial silicon demand. Organic silicon maintained a staggered peak emission reduction policy and continued self - disciplined production cuts, also providing weak support for industrial silicon demand. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable to slightly weak. The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics may bring upward momentum to the demand side [1]. Supply - On the same day, a major factory in Xinjiang announced production cuts. The planned production in January is expected to decline significantly, which will positively impact the industrial silicon price. If the production cuts are effective, the supply of industrial silicon will contract significantly, and the inventory will shift from accumulation to depletion [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 19, 2026, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated upward, opening at 50,200 yuan/ton and closing at 50,505 yuan/ton, a 0.63% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The position of the main contract reached 44,571 lots (46,220 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on the day was 12,235 lots [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 59.00 yuan/kg [3]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory also increased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 321,000 tons, a 6.29% change from the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 24.78GW, a - 5.53% change from the previous period, polysilicon weekly production was 21,500 tons, a - 9.66% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer production was 10.83GW, a 2.95% change from the previous period [3]. - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.49 yuan/piece [4]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.41 yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W [6]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.73 - 0.74 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.77 yuan/W [6]. - Recently, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced an adjustment to the minimum opening volume of the polysilicon futures 2701 contract, changing the minimum opening order quantity from 1 lot to 10 lots. The reduction of speculative funds makes the market fluctuations more in line with the supply - demand fundamentals, stabilizes the hedging effect, and strengthens the influence of industrial customers on prices [6]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, with the main contract expected to maintain a weak oscillation - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [7]

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are experiencing price fluctuations, with industrial silicon prices showing a slight decline and polysilicon prices also decreasing, influenced by supply and demand dynamics and recent policy changes in the photovoltaic sector [2][5][7]. Supply Side - Industrial silicon futures prices have shown a downward trend, with the main contract closing at 8635 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan/ton or 1.65% from the previous day [2]. - The supply of industrial silicon remains stable, with prices for various grades holding steady across multiple regions, including East China and Xinjiang [2][13]. - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [13]. Demand Side - The demand for polysilicon is expected to rise due to the recent cancellation of the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products, although the actual impact may not be felt until April when the policy takes effect [3][7]. - The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises has slightly decreased, and the demand for aluminum alloys is showing marginal weakness [3][7]. Price Outlook - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation, supported by cost factors and production cut expectations, while the extent of price increases will depend on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction [4][14]. - Polysilicon futures prices have also shown a decline, with the main contract closing at 49005 yuan/ton, down 4.45% from the previous trading day [5][18]. Market Strategy - The recent policy changes in the photovoltaic industry may lead to short-term spikes in polysilicon demand, but the long-term effects could involve overshooting demand [7][18]. - The overall market sentiment is weak, with a recommendation to maintain a cautious stance in the short term and consider short positions in the medium to long term [7][18].

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8305 yuan/ton and closed at 8250 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton (-2.19%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2601 was 171,757 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 7780 lots, an increase of 252 lots from the previous day [2]. Supply - Side Information - The spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [2]. - The price of silicon coal remained stable for now, but it was expected to loosen in some regions due to the downward - trending prices of raw coal and coking coal. The average price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 825 yuan/ton, the price range of caking silicon coal was about 1300 - 1650 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon coal in Shaanxi was about 880 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was about 1260 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu was about 930 yuan/ton, and the average price of granular coal was about 1050 yuan/ton [2]. Demand - Side Information - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was also in this range, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week. As the DMC market price stabilized, the purchasing sentiment of downstream customers became more rational. Due to the weak demand in the terminal market, it would take time for the price to be fully transmitted to the terminal [3]. Strategy - The spot price was affected by the futures market and showed a weak and volatile trend. The industrial silicon futures market declined significantly due to capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the strength of the lower support. The industrial silicon market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there were policies to promote capacity exit, the market might rise as the current valuation was low. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and long positions could be considered when the price dropped significantly [4]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures showed a wide - range volatile trend. It opened at 56000 yuan/ton and closed at 55915 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 1.62% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 54959 lots (68874 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 116207 lots [5]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Information - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.10 (a 3.38% change from the previous period), the silicon wafer inventory was 21.30GW (a 9.23% change), the weekly polysilicon output was 25800.00 tons (a 7.50% change), and the silicon wafer output was 11.95GW (a - 0.58% change). The estimated polysilicon output in December was 113500 tons, mainly due to production cuts in Inner Mongolia, and there were no major production cut plans in January [5][6]. Component Price Information - The mainstream transaction prices of components were as follows: PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.65 - 0.67 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon both weakened, with a significant decline in consumption and high inventory pressure. The market was affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. After the establishment of the platform company, attention should be paid to the implementation of production and sales restrictions. The market fluctuated greatly recently, and participants should pay attention to risk management. It was expected that the market would mainly fluctuate. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 57000 yuan/ton [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is basically stable. After the production cut in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are relevant capacity - exit policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is poor, with increasing production, declining consumption, and rising inventory. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened and closed at 8910 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton ( - 0.50%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2601 main contract was 193,019 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 7,228 lots, an increase of 336 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. The social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on December 4 was 558,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous week [1] Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton. The domestic organic silicon DMC market price continued to rise this week, with the mainstream price range at 13,500 - 13,800 yuan/ton, about 450 yuan/ton higher than the average price of the previous week [2] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and it is advisable to go long on contracts during the dry season at low prices [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 4, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 57,270 yuan/ton and closing at 56,915 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 0.05% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 116,653 lots, and the trading volume was 175,576 lots. The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, with the polysilicon inventory at 291,000 tons (a month - on - month change of 3.38%) and the silicon wafer inventory at 21.30 GW (a month - on - month change of 9.23%). The weekly production of polysilicon was 25,800 tons (a month - on - month change of 7.50%), and the silicon wafer production was 11.95 GW (a month - on - month change of - 0.58%) [4] - In October, the polysilicon production was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September. In November, the production in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 and 57,000 yuan/ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the recent supply - demand pattern may improve, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the disk may have room to rise. For short - term trading, it is recommended to operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply and demand on both ends are weakening, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and with stricter supervision, the disk is expected to gradually fall back to the fundamentals. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,120 yuan/ton and closed at 9,145 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton (- 0.16%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 203,274 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 1 was 6,596 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,700 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,800 - 9,000 yuan/ton. In November 2025, the domestic industrial silicon output was 401,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of industrial silicon was 3.8716 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13,100 - 13,300 yuan/ton. In November, the domestic organic silicon DMC output increased by 3.82% month - on - month and decreased by 1.33% year - on - year. In December, due to the joint emission - reduction plan in November, the industry's overall operating rate is expected to decline month - on - month, and the domestic organic silicon DMC output is expected to decrease by about 3.08% month - on - month compared with November [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and the recent supply - demand pattern may improve. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November, the number of new warehouse receipts registered decreased significantly. The industrial silicon disk is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote, the disk may have room to rise. Short - term trading should operate within a range, and go long on dry - season contracts when the price is low [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 1, 2025, the main contract of polysilicon futures 2601 rose, opening at 57,000 yuan/ton and closing at 57,705 yuan/ton, a 3.26% change from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 142,133 lots (144,759 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 338,696 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 28.10, a 3.69% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.50GW, a 4.17% month - on - month change. The weekly polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a - 11.40% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a - 5.95% month - on - month change [4][5]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region was expected to decline significantly [5]. - The prices of battery cells and silicon wafers remained stable. In November, the output of component enterprises decreased by 2.43% month - on - month compared with October. It is expected that the output in December will continue to decline significantly, and the terminal demand will return to the off - season, with the expected month - on - month decline in the operating rate compared with October being 14.77% [5][6]. - From December 3, 2025, the speculative trading margin standard for the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract will be adjusted to 13%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 12%. From December 3, 2025, the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or customers in the polysilicon futures PS2601 contract shall not exceed 500 lots [6]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon have both weakened, with large inventory pressure and general consumer - end performance. The fundamentals are weak. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled in November and few new ones were registered, there was more delivery game in the near - month contracts. The disk is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, with large disk fluctuations. Short - term trading should be cautiously bearish, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, total inventory has decreased, and the current valuation is low. If there are relevant policies, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply and demand have both weakened, the inventory pressure is large, and the consumption performance is average. The futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the influence of anti - involution policies and weak reality [3][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9025 yuan/ton and closed at 9080 yuan/ton, a change of 60 yuan/ton (0.67%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 251,549 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 44,022 lots, a change of - 1323 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - As of November 13, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 127,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 419,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from the previous week. The inventory in Tianjin and Guangzhou decreased more actively, and the overall social inventory decreased [1]. Consumption End - The quotation of silicone DMC was 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton. Domestic mainstream monomer manufacturers had a strong willingness to support the price of silicone products such as DMC and intended to jointly reduce production, but the implementation of production cuts was still to be discussed [2]. Strategy - Spot prices are stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and total inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. It is recommended to operate in the short - term range, and go long on the dry - season contracts on dips [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 17, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated weakly, opening at 54,060 yuan/ton and closing at 52,655 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.57% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136,246 lots (145,191 lots in the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 249,758 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type polysilicon was 49.70 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, a change of 3.09% month - on - month, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42 GW, a change of 5.14% month - on - month. The weekly polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a change of - 0.74% month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 13.12 GW, a change of - 2.45% month - on - month [6]. - In October, the polysilicon output was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, the output in the southwest region is expected to decline significantly [6]. Strategy - The polysilicon futures price fluctuated weakly on the day. The supply and demand of polysilicon both weakened, and the overall inventory pressure was large. The consumption performance was average. The futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly, and it is recommended to operate in the short - term range. The December contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8]. Factors to Watch - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, factors to watch include the resumption of production in the northwest and shutdown in the southwest, changes in the start - up of polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, policy disturbances, and macro and capital sentiment [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is weak, leading to a decline in the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets. For industrial silicon, the current low valuation may present an opportunity for price increases if relevant policies are introduced. For polysilicon, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with limited upside potential and expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation [3][7]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,130 yuan/ton and closed at 8,885 yuan/ton, a change of - 210 yuan/ton (- 2.31%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 242,153 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 45,823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. In November, the supply is expected to increase as some maintenance devices resume production, while demand shows no significant change, resulting in an oversupply situation. Although the cost of industrial silicon has been oscillating slightly upward recently, it can only provide short - term support for the price of DMC and cannot drive a substantial price rebound [1][2]. - In October 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons (7.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 17,600 tons (4%). From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 3.4699 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6% [1]. Strategy - The intraday correction was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. Production cuts started in the southwest at the end of October, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is currently oscillating based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If relevant policies on capacity exit are introduced, there may be room for price increases. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 56,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,715 yuan/ton, a 3.91% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 128,876 lots (143,844 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 274,348 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%, and the silicon wafer production was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. In October, the polysilicon production was about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and production is expected to decline [4][5]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with significant inventory pressure. Both supply and demand may decrease starting in November. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. Policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. It is expected that relevant policies will be introduced this year. Without significant improvement in consumer demand, the upside potential of the futures market is limited, and it is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 and 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, and the intraday rebound of the futures market is mainly driven by the sharp rise of commodities such as coking coal. Starting from the end of October, production in Southwest China will be reduced, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant policies, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure. Although production may decrease in November, downstream production scheduling may also weaken. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,995 yuan/ton and closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 1.61% from the previous settlement price. The position of the 2511 main contract was 220,662 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 47,338 lots, a decrease of 706 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton and is expected to decline slightly under pressure [1] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken on the dry - season contracts at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 54,600 yuan/ton and closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 118,430 lots, and the trading volume was 307,284 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 4.84% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 14.73GW, an increase of 2.65% month - on - month. The production of polysilicon in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and production in Southwest China is expected to decline significantly in November [3] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended. The 11 main contract is expected to fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - The game between weak reality and policy expectations continues, and the polysilicon futures market fluctuates widely. The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental situation currently, but there may be a reduction in production in the southwest region at the end of October. The polysilicon market has high inventory pressure, and the price transmission to downstream products is not smooth. However, relevant policies are expected to be introduced in the long - term, which may bring opportunities for the market [1][3][8]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8520 yuan/ton and closed at 8505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton (-0.93%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 107,518 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 48,851 lots, a decrease of 452 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 9300 - 9400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and the northwest remained stable [1]. - The consumption side: The price of organic silicon DMC was reported at 11100 - 11500 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic DMC price may have a small trial increase, but it may be under pressure this week if the actual situation does not meet expectations [1]. Export and Import - In September 2025, the export volume of primary - form polysiloxanes of organic silicon in China was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% and a year - on - year increase of 9.57%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%. The import volume in September 2025 was 7500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.46%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 71,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [2]. Strategy - The current fundamental situation is weak, but production may decrease in the southwest at the end of October. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity withdrawal, the market may rise. The short - term strategy is to operate within a range, and it is advisable to go long on contracts during the dry season at low prices [3]. Group 4: Industry Analysis - Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 21, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50,210 yuan/ton and closed at 50,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 52,237 lots (56,806 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 121,870 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 51.00 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 25.30 (a month - on - month change of 5.33%), the silicon wafer inventory was 17.31GW (a month - on - month change of 3.16%), the weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 14.35GW (a month - on - month change of 11.85%) [6]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.70 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September. There will be a significant reduction in production in the southwest region in November. The silicon wafer production schedule increased significantly in October, but silicon wafer enterprises are expected to reduce production from November to December according to the association's quota [6]. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.32 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamental situation of polysilicon is average, with high inventory pressure. The production reduction in October did not meet expectations, and the price transmission to downstream products was not smooth. The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November will suppress the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the long - term, it is suitable to go long at low prices. The short - term strategy is to operate within a range, with the 11th main contract fluctuating between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton and the 12th contract between 51,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8]. Group 5: Factors to Watch Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production in the northwest and the shutdown in the southwest; changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises; policy disturbances; macro and capital sentiment; and the start - up situation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. Polysilicon - The impact of industry self - discipline on the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises; the promotion of the spot market by the futures listing; capital sentiment; and policy disturbances [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for industrial silicon; short-term range operation for polysilicon [3][9] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the futures market declined due to the closing of long positions last week. The market is influenced by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies on capacity exit, the market may rise as the valuation is low [3] - For polysilicon, the market is affected by weak reality and strong policy expectations. Recently, it has returned to the fundamentals of warehouse receipt delivery logic, leading to a weak operation. It is still fluctuating within the shock range. If the market corrects significantly, polysilicon can be bought at low prices in the medium to long term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 9,285 yuan/ton and closed at 8,950 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous settlement. The main contract held 285,490 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,802, a decrease of 72 from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. In August 2025, the export volume was 76,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 18%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 491,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] Consumption Analysis - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import volume of primary polysiloxane was 48,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.43%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 373,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.41%. The import volume was 7,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.16%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 63,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.27% [2] Strategy - The spot price increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to subsequent capacity exit policies. If there is policy support, the market may rise [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 significantly corrected, opening at 52,925 yuan/ton and closing at 50,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.63% from the previous day. The main contract held 123,917 lots, and the trading volume was 253,135 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The N-type material was 50.30 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the n-type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg [4] Inventory and Production - The polysilicon inventory was 204,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.80%. The silicon wafer inventory was 16.87 GW, a month-on-month increase of 1.93%. The weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.50%. The silicon wafer production was 13.92 GW, a month-on-month increase of 0.29% [6] Strategy - The polysilicon market is affected by weak reality and strong policy expectations. It is currently in a shock range. Attention should be paid to the support level of 50,000 yuan/ton and the spot price. If the market corrects significantly, it can be bought at low prices in the medium to long term [7]