弱现实与政策预期博弈，多晶硅盘面震荡运行 工业硅： 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-26 市场分析 2025-08-25，工业硅期货盘面高开低走，主力合约2511开于8930元/吨，最后收于8675元/吨，较前一日结算变化（5） 元/吨，变化（0.06）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓289125手，2025-08-25仓单总数为50938手，较前一日变化-111 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9500（100）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9700 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8700（150）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8700（200）元/吨。天津、西北、新疆、 上海地区部分硅价也上调。四川地区个别硅价下调。昆明、黄埔港地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。 SMM统计8月21日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.3万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.7万吨， 较上周环比持平，社会交割仓库42.6万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-110 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, with both supply and demand increasing and a slight reduction in inventory. However, there is significant over - capacity and high inventory pressure. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. For polysilicon, short - term downstream product prices are under pressure, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure. The short - term market may maintain wide fluctuations, but it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2511 opened at 8800 yuan/ton and closed at 8600 yuan/ton, a change of - 305 yuan/ton (- 3.43%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 284,500 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,701 lots, a change of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable [1]. - In August, the number of open furnaces increased in both the southwest and northwest regions. The consumption side saw a significant increase in polysilicon production, while silicone, aluminum alloy, and exports were relatively stable. There was an overall slight reduction in inventory, but the total inventory in the industry was still high, about 940,000 tons, equivalent to about 3 months of consumption [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures declined, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.11% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 132,463 lots, and the trading volume was 395,645 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, while the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers also increased [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, the polysilicon market is under pressure, and the market may maintain wide fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading. In the long term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low levels. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are significantly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with relatively stable fundamentals. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation, while the polysilicon market is mainly dominated by policy expectations and has large overall fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8400 yuan/ton and closed at 8700 yuan/ton, with a change of 305 yuan/ton (3.63%) compared to the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2509 main contract was 208,736 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,580 lots, a change of - 226 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon increased. For example, the price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 yuan/ton [1] - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guide for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliance Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region", and relevant departments will continue to implement "window guidance" for new and technological transformation projects of industrial silicon. Industry associations in Yunnan and Sichuan issued an initiative against involution and for high - quality development. The policy disturbances had an impact on the market. The consumer - side organic silicon DMC was quoted at 12,100 - 12,500 yuan/ton, with stable prices, general trading, and mainly rigid - demand purchases [2] Strategy - The current market is greatly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with little change in fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation. The strategy for the single - side is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 50,300 yuan/ton and closing at 51,345 yuan/ton, with a closing - price change of 3.23% compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 138,396 lots (127,587 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 420,201 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the silicon wafer inventory increased, the weekly polysilicon production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [5] - In July, component enterprises slightly increased production, but the recent price fluctuations affected production enthusiasm. Distributed demand improved marginally but was still at a low level, and centralized demand had waiting and pressure - exerting behaviors from central state - owned enterprises. It is expected that the output in August will decrease slightly month - on - month, with better production and shipment of large - size components led by HJT [6] Strategy - In August, the production in the southwest is expected to increase significantly, the polysilicon inventory will rise, the delivery rhythm of previous orders will slow down, and the signing of new orders is limited except for granular silicon. The market is more watchful. The current market is mainly dominated by policy expectations, with large fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. The short - term single - side strategy is interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-01 反内卷情绪降温，工业硅多晶硅盘面回落 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-07-31，工业硅期货价格大幅回落，主力合约2509开于9090元/吨，最后收于8760元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-585） 元/吨，变化（-6.26）%。截止收盘，2509主力合约持仓212932手，2025-07-31仓单总数为50644手，较前一日变化 798手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格下跌。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9700-9900（-200）元/吨；421#硅在9900-10400 （-100）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格9100-9200（-200）元/吨，99硅价格在9000-9200（-200）元/吨。 根据SMM市场交流，2025年7月份工业硅产量在33.83万吨环比增加3.2%同比减少30.6%。2025年1-7月份工业硅累 计产量在221.12万吨，同比下降20.0%。 SMM统计7月31日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54万吨，较上周环比增加0.5万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.9万吨，较 上周减少0.1万吨，社会交割仓库42.1万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, recent price fluctuations are due to rising raw material coal prices and changes in supply - demand. The market is expected to remain volatile with a neutral stance on the single - side strategy [1][2][3]. - For polysilicon, the futures market is affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, with a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals. There is a risk of chasing high prices, and the recommended strategy is to sell - hedge at high prices and buy put options [4][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 9500 yuan/ton and closed at 9285 yuan/ton, a change of 200 yuan/ton (2.20%) from the previous settlement. The closing position of the 2509 main contract was 242,677 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 49,846 lots, a change of - 236 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9900 - 10100 (200) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 10100 - 10400 (100) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in multiple regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and Xinjiang also rose, while the price of 97 silicon remained stable [1]. - Affected by the rising price of raw material coal, the cost of silicon coal was strongly supported, driving up the prices of silicon coal in many regions. For example, the price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang increased by 50 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, it increased by 40 yuan/ton [2]. - The consumption side: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 12100 - 12700 (- 50) yuan/ton. The supply in the silicone market was contracting, and manufacturers' willingness to maintain prices increased significantly [2]. - **Strategy** - The recent market fluctuations have increased, but the fundamentals have changed little. It is expected that the market will remain volatile. - Single - side: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 30, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 51,800 yuan/ton and closing at 54,705 yuan/ton, a change of 8.87% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 164,490 lots (140,638 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 565,243 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 24.30, a month - on - month change of - 2.41%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.87GW, a month - on - month change of 11.55%. The weekly polysilicon output was 25,500.00 tons, a month - on - month change of 10.87%, and the silicon wafer output was 11.20GW, a month - on - month change of 0.90% [4]. - In terms of silicon wafers, domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 (0.05) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.55 (0.05) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.35 (0.05) yuan/piece [4]. - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [5]. - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (- 0.01) yuan/W [5]. - According to the data released by the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feeding materials this week was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 44,000 - 45,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 44,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.68% [6]. - From the perspective of supply and demand, the total polysilicon output in July is expected to be close to 110,000 tons, and there is still a large possibility of growth in August. In July, the start - up of silicon wafer factories was relatively weak. With the rise in silicon wafer prices, some enterprises had preliminary plans to start furnaces, and the implementation needs further observation. The supply - demand fundamentals were weak [6]. - According to the exchange announcement, non - futures company members or customers' single - day opening volume on the polysilicon futures PS2509 contract should not exceed 500 lots, and on the PS2510, PS2511, PS2512, and PS2601 contracts, it should not exceed 2,000 lots respectively [6]. - **Strategy** - Currently, the polysilicon futures market is mainly affected by the anti - involution policy in the photovoltaic industry, and there is a certain deviation from the spot fundamentals in the short term. The industry's acquisition and merger plan is still being promoted, and there is no clear conclusion yet. The futures are easily affected by news. From a valuation perspective, a price of 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton already gives the industry good profits, and the risk of chasing high prices is relatively large. The market fluctuations are large, and the futures position is large. After the exchange's position limit, the change in position can also easily cause market fluctuations. Investors need to pay attention to risk management. - Single - side: Sell - hedge at high prices; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: Buy put options [6][7].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment of commodities remains positive. The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon has improved recently, with reduced inventory. Affected by the anti - involution policy and the rising price of coking coal, the industrial silicon futures market may show a strong performance. For polysilicon, due to the expected impact of the anti - involution policy on capacity and under the influence of capital sentiment, the futures market may also run strongly [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Industry Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On July 24, 2025, the main contract 2509 of industrial silicon futures opened at 9560 yuan/ton and closed at 9690 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.21% from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract was 336274 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49776 lots, a decrease of 330 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The social inventory in major areas was 53.5 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons from the previous week [1]. - **Supply - Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon rose. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 10000 - 10200 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 10200 - 10500 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton. Downstream users purchased on demand, and the center of market transactions moved up [1]. - **Consumption - Side**: The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 12100 - 12800 yuan/ton. The supply was expected to decrease due to an incident at a Shandong organic silicon plant. The decrease in supply and the sharp rise in weekly prices stimulated downstream enterprises' panic - buying sentiment [2]. - **Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; there is no strategy for inter - period trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On July 24, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures continued to rise, opening at 50025 yuan/ton and closing at 53765 yuan/ton, a 5.15% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 172564 lots, and the trading volume was 1123795 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory decreased, while the silicon wafer inventory increased. The weekly polysilicon output was 25500 tons, a 10.87% increase, and the silicon wafer output was 11.20GW, a 0.90% increase [4]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, it is recommended to conduct range trading for unilateral trading; there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [9]. Silicon Wafers, Battery Cells, and Components - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.10 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.45 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece [6]. - **Battery Cells**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.27 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [6]. - **Components**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.70 yuan/W [6].

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the futures price rebounded while the spot price stabilized, with the basis narrowing significantly. The fundamentals changed little, but the overall sentiment improved recently. The price bottom is easily affected by various news, and the near - month contract has high positions, leading to large short - term fluctuations. Upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging [1][2]. - For polysilicon, the futures price declined, and the spot price was weakly stable. The fundamentals are weak. As the number of warehouse receipts increases, the delivery game weakens, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to the subsequent increase in warehouse receipts [3][5][10]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On June 8, 2025, the main contract 2507 of industrial silicon futures opened at 7,245 yuan/ton and closed at 7,475 yuan/ton, up 2.33% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2507 was 177,663 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on June 9 was 60,179 lots, a decrease of 394 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 8,000 - 8,300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8,400 - 9,000 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 7,500 - 7,700 yuan/ton. The prices of individual silicon in Xinjiang and Sichuan continued to decline, while those in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Shanghai, and the northwest remained stable, as did the price of 97 silicon [1]. - The DMC price of silicone was 10,900 - 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The weekend quotation of Shandong monomer enterprises decreased by 400 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the bid - winning price dropped to 10,800 yuan/ton. After the price decline, the transaction center of the DMC market decreased [1]. Polysilicon - On June 8, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures opened at 34,620 yuan/ton and closed at 34,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.24% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 64,383 lots (65,179 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 123,726 lots [3][7]. - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 30.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 29.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 35.00 - 38.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg [3][7]. - The polysilicon inventory was 26.90 (a 0.37% month - on - month increase), the silicon wafer inventory was 20.02GW (a 7.80% month - on - month increase), the weekly polysilicon output was 22,000 tons (a 1.85% month - on - month increase), and the silicon wafer output was 13.04GW (a 2.67% month - on - month decrease) [3][4][7]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.92 yuan/piece (a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece), N - type 210mm was 1.28 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.08 yuan/piece [4][7]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.25 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.26 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery cells were 0.37 yuan/W [4][8][9]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W (an increase of 0.01 yuan/W), and N - type 210mm was 0.70 - 0.70 yuan/W (an increase of 0.01 yuan/W) [4][9]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises can sell on rallies for hedging. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Futures - spot: None. - Options: None [2]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Futures - spot: None. - Options: None [5][8][10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For industrial silicon: Unilateral - Sell on rallies; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Options - None [3][4] - For polysilicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period - None; Cross - variety - None; Futures - spot - None; Options - None [8] 2. Core Views - The overall fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, with potential supply increases from the resumption of production in the northwest and southwest, lackluster consumption, and declining exports [3] - The fundamentals of polysilicon are also weak. With the increase in the number of warehouse receipts, the delivery game is weakening, and the market is expected to run weakly [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weakly volatile. The main contract 2505 opened at 8080 yuan/ton and closed at 7910 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton (-2.53%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 64706 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 66249 lots, an increase of 152 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable. The price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 8700 - 8900 (-150) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9400 - 10000 (-150) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in some regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, Shanghai, and the northwest continued to decline [1] - In April 2025, the export volume of industrial silicon was 60,500 tons, a 2% increase month - on - month and a 9% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative export volume was 216,700 tons, a 7% decrease year - on - year. In April 2025, the import volume of metallic silicon in China was 500 tons, a 70% decrease month - on - month and an 83% decrease year - on - year. From January to April 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5200 tons, a 43% decrease year - on - year [1] Consumption End - The quotation of organic silicon DMC was 11300 - 11600 (0) yuan/ton. In the organic silicon market, the prices of raw rubber and D4 showed different trends. The demand for raw rubber downstream increased rapidly, and the transaction was good, while the overall transaction of D4 was average due to weak demand for room - temperature rubber, and the high - end price declined slightly [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the main contract 2507 of polysilicon futures fell, opening at 36020 yuan/ton and closing at 35625 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 70536 (63062 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume was 165519 lots [5] - The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 (0.00) yuan/kg; granular silicon was 32.00 - 34.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, and N - type silicon was 36.00 - 39.00 (-0.50) yuan/kg, N - type granular silicon was 33.00 - 35.00 (-1.00) yuan/kg [5] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 25000 tons, a 2.27% decrease month - on - month, and the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW, a 7.22% increase month - on - month. The weekly output of polysilicon was 21400 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 12.42GW, a 0.50% increase month - on - month [6] - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.94 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.28 (0.00) yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.08 (0.00) yuan/piece [6] - For battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells was about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells was about 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells was 0.26 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W [6] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 (0.00) yuan/W [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry are weak. Although there has been some production reduction on the supply side, the approaching wet season in the southwest region is expected to increase supply. The falling prices of silicon coal and electricity during the wet season have weakened cost support. On the consumption side, performance is weak, with the possibility of further production cuts [2]. - The futures market for polysilicon has been volatile recently. Downstream production scheduling has decreased month-on-month. News of joint production cuts by silicon material factories has had a significant impact on the market. Attention should be paid to changes in the number of warehouse receipts and the impact of position reduction on the market [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On May 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2506 opened at 8,320 yuan/ton and closed at 8,230 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2505 had a position of 162,299 lots, and on May 14, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,494 lots, a change of -603 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,700 - 10,300 yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton; and 99 silicon was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton. In recent days, downstream alloy users have placed orders, and some traders reported improved trading volumes compared to last week. Sellers' quotes remained stable, but downstream users still had a tendency to bargain [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton. Domestic organic silicon DMC enterprises maintained stable quotes, with local transaction prices slightly decreasing. The overall transaction range was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, but market transaction expectations were not strong. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory as needed. It is expected that after May 20, downstream enterprises' raw material inventories will be depleted, which may drive market trading volumes [1]. Polysilicon - On May 13, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 rose significantly and then declined. It opened at 38,230 yuan/ton and closed at 38,270 yuan/ton, a 0.91% change from the previous trading day. The main contract had a position of 52,252 lots (69,417 lots the previous day) and a trading volume of 321,982 lots [4]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of polysilicon reclaimed material was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower polysilicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg; N-type material was 37.00 - 44.00 yuan/kg; and N-type granular silicon was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventories decreased, as did silicon wafer inventories. The latest statistics showed polysilicon inventory at 25.70 (a month-on-month change of -1.90%), silicon wafer inventory at 18.13GW (a month-on-month change of -12.08%), weekly polysilicon production at 21,400.00 tons (a month-on-month change of -4.46%), and silicon wafer production at 12.35GW (a month-on-month change of -7.07%) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.98 yuan/piece, N-type 210mm was 1.30 yuan/piece, and N-type 210R silicon wafers were 1.10 yuan/piece. For battery cells, the price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.27 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W; and HJT210 half-cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W. For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. Upstream enterprises should sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish on the 2506 contract [7]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [7]. - Cross - variety: None [7]. - Spot - futures: None [7]. - Options: None [7].