新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-18 消费表现一般，多晶硅工业硅盘面宽幅震荡 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-11-17，工业硅期货价格震荡运行，主力合约2601开于9025元/吨，最后收于9080元/吨，较前一日结算变化（60） 元/吨，变化（0.67）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓251549手，2025-11-17仓单总数为44022手，较前一日变化-1323 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9400-9600（0）元/吨；421#硅在9700-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8800-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8800-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计11月13日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.6万吨，较上周减少0.6万吨。其中社会普通仓库12.7万吨，较 上周持平，社会交割仓库41.9万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货库部分），较上周减少0.6万吨。（（不含内蒙、宁夏、甘 肃等地）。本周统计地区的社会库存变化，以天津及广州地区成交货物出库较为活跃，其他地区仓库库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market is weak, leading to a decline in the industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets. For industrial silicon, the current low valuation may present an opportunity for price increases if relevant policies are introduced. For polysilicon, the market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with limited upside potential and expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation [3][7]. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price dropped. The main contract 2601 opened at 9,130 yuan/ton and closed at 8,885 yuan/ton, a change of - 210 yuan/ton (- 2.31%) from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 242,153 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 45,823 lots, a decrease of 338 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. In November, the supply is expected to increase as some maintenance devices resume production, while demand shows no significant change, resulting in an oversupply situation. Although the cost of industrial silicon has been oscillating slightly upward recently, it can only provide short - term support for the price of DMC and cannot drive a substantial price rebound [1][2]. - In October 2025, China's industrial silicon production was 452,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,400 tons (7.5%) and a year - on - year decrease of 17,600 tons (4%). From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of industrial silicon was 3.4699 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.6% [1]. Strategy - The intraday correction was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment. Production cuts started in the southwest at the end of October, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is currently oscillating based on the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If relevant policies on capacity exit are introduced, there may be room for price increases. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 4, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures declined, opening at 56,000 yuan/ton and closing at 53,715 yuan/ton, a 3.91% decrease from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 128,876 lots (143,844 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 274,348 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 261,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The weekly production of polysilicon was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%, and the silicon wafer production was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. In October, the polysilicon production was about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest region will be significantly reduced, and production is expected to decline [4][5]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with significant inventory pressure. Both supply and demand may decrease starting in November. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. Policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. It is expected that relevant policies will be introduced this year. Without significant improvement in consumer demand, the upside potential of the futures market is limited, and it is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation. Short - term interval trading is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 and 57,000 yuan/ton [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, and the intraday rebound of the futures market is mainly driven by the sharp rise of commodities such as coking coal. Starting from the end of October, production in Southwest China will be reduced, and the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are relevant policies, the market may have room to rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average, with large inventory pressure. Although production may decrease in November, downstream production scheduling may also weaken. The futures market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large fluctuations. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low prices [2][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8,995 yuan/ton and closed at 9,170 yuan/ton, up 1.61% from the previous settlement price. The position of the 2511 main contract was 220,662 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 47,338 lots, a decrease of 706 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 - 9,400 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,800 - 11,200 yuan/ton and is expected to decline slightly under pressure [1] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken on the dry - season contracts at low prices. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 54,600 yuan/ton and closed at 54,990 yuan/ton, up 0.72% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 118,430 lots, and the trading volume was 307,284 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 29,500 tons, a decrease of 4.84% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 14.73GW, an increase of 2.65% month - on - month. The production of polysilicon in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, and production in Southwest China is expected to decline significantly in November [3] Strategy - Short - term range operation is recommended. The 11 main contract is expected to fluctuate between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and the 12 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - The game between weak reality and policy expectations continues, and the polysilicon futures market fluctuates widely. The industrial silicon market has a weak fundamental situation currently, but there may be a reduction in production in the southwest region at the end of October. The polysilicon market has high inventory pressure, and the price transmission to downstream products is not smooth. However, relevant policies are expected to be introduced in the long - term, which may bring opportunities for the market [1][3][8]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On October 21, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8520 yuan/ton and closed at 8505 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton (-0.93%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 107,518 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 48,851 lots, a decrease of 452 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon in East China was 9300 - 9400 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions such as Kunming, Huangpu Port, and the northwest remained stable [1]. - The consumption side: The price of organic silicon DMC was reported at 11100 - 11500 yuan/ton. Last week, the domestic DMC price may have a small trial increase, but it may be under pressure this week if the actual situation does not meet expectations [1]. Export and Import - In September 2025, the export volume of primary - form polysiloxanes of organic silicon in China was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.47% and a year - on - year increase of 9.57%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export volume was 420,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%. The import volume in September 2025 was 7500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.39% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.46%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 71,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [2]. Strategy - The current fundamental situation is weak, but production may decrease in the southwest at the end of October. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies to promote capacity withdrawal, the market may rise. The short - term strategy is to operate within a range, and it is advisable to go long on contracts during the dry season at low prices [3]. Group 4: Industry Analysis - Polysilicon Market Analysis - On October 21, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 50,210 yuan/ton and closed at 50,715 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 52,237 lots (56,806 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 121,870 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 51.00 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The polysilicon inventory was 25.30 (a month - on - month change of 5.33%), the silicon wafer inventory was 17.31GW (a month - on - month change of 3.16%), the weekly polysilicon output was 31,000 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 14.35GW (a month - on - month change of 11.85%) [6]. - In the silicon wafer market, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.70 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October is expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September. There will be a significant reduction in production in the southwest region in November. The silicon wafer production schedule increased significantly in October, but silicon wafer enterprises are expected to reduce production from November to December according to the association's quota [6]. - In the battery cell market, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 battery cells was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells was 0.32 yuan/W, Topcon210RN battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7]. - In the component market, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamental situation of polysilicon is average, with high inventory pressure. The production reduction in October did not meet expectations, and the price transmission to downstream products was not smooth. The cancellation of warehouse receipts in November will suppress the market. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, with large price fluctuations. In the long - term, it is suitable to go long at low prices. The short - term strategy is to operate within a range, with the 11th main contract fluctuating between 49,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton and the 12th contract between 51,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8]. Group 5: Factors to Watch Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production in the northwest and the shutdown in the southwest; changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises; policy disturbances; macro and capital sentiment; and the start - up situation of organic silicon enterprises [5]. Polysilicon - The impact of industry self - discipline on the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises; the promotion of the spot market by the futures listing; capital sentiment; and policy disturbances [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral for industrial silicon; short-term range operation for polysilicon [3][9] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the current fundamentals have little change, and the futures market declined due to the closing of long positions last week. The market is influenced by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies on capacity exit, the market may rise as the valuation is low [3] - For polysilicon, the market is affected by weak reality and strong policy expectations. Recently, it has returned to the fundamentals of warehouse receipt delivery logic, leading to a weak operation. It is still fluctuating within the shock range. If the market corrects significantly, polysilicon can be bought at low prices in the medium to long term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 9,285 yuan/ton and closed at 8,950 yuan/ton, down 0.83% from the previous settlement. The main contract held 285,490 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,802, a decrease of 72 from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon rose slightly. In August 2025, the export volume was 76,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4% and a year-on-year increase of 18%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was 491,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% [1] Consumption Analysis - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,900 - 11,200 yuan/ton. In August 2025, the import volume of primary polysiloxane was 48,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.43%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 373,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.41%. The import volume was 7,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 8.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.16%. The cumulative import volume from January to August was 63,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.27% [2] Strategy - The spot price increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. The market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to subsequent capacity exit policies. If there is policy support, the market may rise [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 22, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2511 significantly corrected, opening at 52,925 yuan/ton and closing at 50,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.63% from the previous day. The main contract held 123,917 lots, and the trading volume was 253,135 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The N-type material was 50.30 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the n-type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg [4] Inventory and Production - The polysilicon inventory was 204,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.80%. The silicon wafer inventory was 16.87 GW, a month-on-month increase of 1.93%. The weekly polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.50%. The silicon wafer production was 13.92 GW, a month-on-month increase of 0.29% [6] Strategy - The polysilicon market is affected by weak reality and strong policy expectations. It is currently in a shock range. Attention should be paid to the support level of 50,000 yuan/ton and the spot price. If the market corrects significantly, it can be bought at low prices in the medium to long term [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range operation; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the spot price remains stable, the inventory decreases slightly, the supply - demand change is small, and the market is mainly influenced by overall commodity sentiment [1][2] - For polysilicon, the weekly output decreases slightly, the upstream inventory goes through slight destocking, and the market is affected by anti - involution policy expectations and fundamentals. Policy implementation and spot price transmission need to be continuously monitored, and polysilicon is suitable for long - term bottom - fishing [3][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8405 yuan/ton and closed at 8515 yuan/ton, a change of 0.12% from the previous settlement. The main contract held 277,305 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,072, a decrease of 276 from the previous day [1] - The industrial silicon spot price remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8400 - 8600 yuan/ton [1] - On September 4, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 537,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week. The ordinary social warehouse had 117,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons, and the social delivery warehouse had 420,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons [1] Consumption End - The organic silicon DMC was quoted at 10,500 - 10,800 yuan/ton. Shandong monomer enterprises' DMC was quoted at 10,800 yuan/ton this week, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton from the previous week. Other domestic monomer enterprises' DMC was mainly quoted at 11,000 - 11,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 - 1000 yuan/ton from the previous week [2] - The upstream and downstream are in a deep game. Monomer enterprises adopt a promotional strategy, but some downstream enterprises are cautious due to the lack of improvement in terminal orders [2] Strategy - The spot price remains stable, the inventory decreases slightly, the supply - demand change is small, and the market is mainly influenced by overall commodity sentiment [2] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On September 4, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2511 fluctuated slightly, opening at 51,700 yuan/ton and closing at 52,195 yuan/ton, a 0.55% change from the previous trading day. The main contract held 145,950 lots, and the trading volume was 268,080 lots [3] - The polysilicon spot price remained stable. The N - type material was 49.00 - 54.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 48.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg [3] - The polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 21.10 (a - 0.90% change), the silicon wafer inventory was 16.85GW (a - 6.65% change), the weekly polysilicon output was 30,200.00 tons (a - 2.58% change), and the silicon wafer output was 13.78GW (a 3.53% change) [5] Strategy - The weekly output decreases slightly, the upstream inventory goes through slight destocking, and the market is affected by anti - involution policy expectations and fundamentals. Policy implementation and spot price transmission need to be continuously monitored, and polysilicon is suitable for long - term bottom - fishing [7] Policy - On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", aiming to promote the high - quality development of the photovoltaic field, guide local layout, and strengthen product quality management [6]

Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The industrial silicon market shows a short - term improvement in supply - demand pattern with slight inventory reduction, but high total inventory and supply increase pressure suppress the upward movement of the futures price. The polysilicon market is affected by policies, with large price fluctuations, and is suitable for long - position layout at low prices in the medium - to - long term [1][3][7] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On August 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures market opened high and closed low. The main contract 2511 opened at 8930 yuan/ton and closed at 8675 yuan/ton, a change of 5 yuan/ton (0.06%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 289,125 lots at the close, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,938 lots, a decrease of 111 lots from the previous day [1] Supply Side - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton. Some silicon prices in Tianjin, Northwest, Xinjiang, and Shanghai increased, while individual prices in Sichuan decreased. Prices in Kunming and Huangpu Port remained stable, and the price of 97 silicon also remained unchanged. As of August 21, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 543,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1] Consumption Side - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,000 yuan/ton. The upstream and downstream were in a deep game. Although the monomer enterprises adopted a promotion strategy to relieve inventory pressure, the downstream was still cautious due to the lack of obvious improvement in terminal orders, and only replenished goods in moderation according to production needs [2] Strategy - In the short term, the supply - demand pattern has improved with a slight inventory reduction, but the high total industry inventory and supply increase pressure suppress the upward movement of the futures price. It may fluctuate mainly according to the overall commodity sentiment in the short term [3] Group 3: Polysilicon Market Analysis Market Performance - On August 25, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 52,320 yuan/ton and closing at 51,580 yuan/ton, a change of 0.73% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 136,801 lots (142,397 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 360,522 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, with N - type material at 46.00 - 52.00 yuan/kg and N - type granular silicon at 45.00 - 47.00 yuan/kg [5] Inventory and Production - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, while silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 249,000 tons, a 2.90% increase from the previous period, and the silicon wafer inventory was 17.41GW, a 12.07% decrease. The weekly polysilicon production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease, and the silicon wafer production was 12.29GW, a 1.57% increase [5][6] Product Prices - The prices of domestic N - type 18Xmm, 210mm, and 210R silicon wafers remained unchanged at 1.23 yuan/piece, 1.58 yuan/piece, and 1.38 yuan/piece respectively. The prices of battery cells and components also remained stable [6] Strategy - Recently, the spot quotation of polysilicon has increased, and the prices of downstream products have also risen. The supply - demand fundamentals are average, with polysilicon inventory accumulation and average consumption - end installation data. The futures price is greatly affected by the anti - involution policy. In the short term, it is recommended to operate within a range, and in the medium - to - long term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, with both supply and demand increasing and a slight reduction in inventory. However, there is significant over - capacity and high inventory pressure. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. For polysilicon, short - term downstream product prices are under pressure, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure. The short - term market may maintain wide fluctuations, but it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2511 opened at 8800 yuan/ton and closed at 8600 yuan/ton, a change of - 305 yuan/ton (- 3.43%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 284,500 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,701 lots, a change of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable [1]. - In August, the number of open furnaces increased in both the southwest and northwest regions. The consumption side saw a significant increase in polysilicon production, while silicone, aluminum alloy, and exports were relatively stable. There was an overall slight reduction in inventory, but the total inventory in the industry was still high, about 940,000 tons, equivalent to about 3 months of consumption [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures declined, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.11% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 132,463 lots, and the trading volume was 395,645 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, while the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers also increased [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, the polysilicon market is under pressure, and the market may maintain wide fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading. In the long term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low levels. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are significantly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with relatively stable fundamentals. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation, while the polysilicon market is mainly dominated by policy expectations and has large overall fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8400 yuan/ton and closed at 8700 yuan/ton, with a change of 305 yuan/ton (3.63%) compared to the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2509 main contract was 208,736 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,580 lots, a change of - 226 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon increased. For example, the price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 yuan/ton [1] - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guide for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliance Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region", and relevant departments will continue to implement "window guidance" for new and technological transformation projects of industrial silicon. Industry associations in Yunnan and Sichuan issued an initiative against involution and for high - quality development. The policy disturbances had an impact on the market. The consumer - side organic silicon DMC was quoted at 12,100 - 12,500 yuan/ton, with stable prices, general trading, and mainly rigid - demand purchases [2] Strategy - The current market is greatly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with little change in fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation. The strategy for the single - side is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 50,300 yuan/ton and closing at 51,345 yuan/ton, with a closing - price change of 3.23% compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 138,396 lots (127,587 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 420,201 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the silicon wafer inventory increased, the weekly polysilicon production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [5] - In July, component enterprises slightly increased production, but the recent price fluctuations affected production enthusiasm. Distributed demand improved marginally but was still at a low level, and centralized demand had waiting and pressure - exerting behaviors from central state - owned enterprises. It is expected that the output in August will decrease slightly month - on - month, with better production and shipment of large - size components led by HJT [6] Strategy - In August, the production in the southwest is expected to increase significantly, the polysilicon inventory will rise, the delivery rhythm of previous orders will slow down, and the signing of new orders is limited except for granular silicon. The market is more watchful. The current market is mainly dominated by policy expectations, with large fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. The short - term single - side strategy is interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]

Report Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon: Unilateral - Neutral; Others - None [3] - Polysilicon: Unilateral - Short - term range operation; Others - None [6] Core Views - Industrial silicon futures prices dropped on July 31, 2025, and the current price is relatively reasonably valued based on fundamentals, but supply is expected to increase, and the market is affected by policies and sentiment [1][3] - Polysilicon futures prices also fell sharply on the same day, with stable spot prices. The market is mainly affected by news and capital sentiment, and the specific details of industry storage and mergers are yet to be determined [3] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On July 31, 2025, the industrial silicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 9090 yuan/ton and closed at 8760 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.26% from the previous settlement. The closing position was 212932 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50644 lots, an increase of 798 lots from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The industrial silicon spot price declined. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9700 - 9900 (- 200) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9900 - 10400 (- 100) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 9100 - 9200 (- 200) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 9000 - 9200 (- 200) yuan/ton [1] - **Production**: In July 2025, industrial silicon production was 338,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative production was 2.2112 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% [1] - **Inventory**: On July 31, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 540,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5000 tons. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse inventory was 119,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse inventory was 421,000 tons, an increase of 6000 tons from the previous week [1] - **Consumption**: The organic silicon DMC quotation was 12100 - 12700 (0) yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction center was around 12300 yuan/ton. The demand matching degree decreased due to sufficient raw material inventory of downstream enterprises [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On July 31, 2025, the polysilicon futures main contract 2509 opened at 52500 yuan/ton and closed at 49130 yuan/ton, a change of - 7.81% from the previous trading day. The position was 126989 lots, and the trading volume was 565838 lots [3] - **Spot**: The polysilicon spot price remained stable. N - type material was 44.00 - 49.00 (0.00) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 (0.00) yuan/kg [3] - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon factory inventory decreased by 5.76% month - on - month to 22.90, silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 18.15GW. Polysilicon weekly production was 26500.00 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.92%, and silicon wafer production was 11.00GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.79% [5] - **Prices of Related Products**: Domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers were 1.20 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210mm were 1.55 (0.00) yuan/piece, N - type 210R silicon wafers were 1.35 (0.00) yuan/piece. High - efficiency PERC182 battery cells were 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.30 (0.01) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W. HJT210 half - cell was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W. PERC182mm mainstream transaction price was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 210mm was 0.68 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W [5] Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral - Others: No specific strategies [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Others: No specific strategies [6]