1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - In July, influenced by macro - policies such as "anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity", black - series coking coal and coke led the rise. Stable - economy policies from meetings boosted the polyolefin futures. After the digestion of positive factors, prices returned to fundamental trading. With multiple new plants coming into operation in July and more to come, the supply - side pressure is high. Currently in the maintenance season, the pressure from new capacity expansion is temporarily offset. OPEC+ production - increase plans dragged down oil prices, weakening cost - side support. Downstream demand is in the seasonal off - season, with limited highlights expected. Mid - and upstream inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher compared to the same period [1][2]. - Domestic new plants: Jilin Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton/year HDPE plant and Yulong Petrochemical's 500,000 - ton/year PP plant were successfully put into operation in July. Many other plants are waiting to start production, indicating continuous growth in domestic polyolefin new - plant capacity. For domestic existing plants, PE maintenance losses are at a high level year - on - year, some PDH plants have restarted, and PDH - made PP plant maintenance has decreased. Overseas, no new plants were put into operation in July, and overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties and delays may be common. Overseas PE and PP operating rates have decreased slightly. The LLDPE import window is closed, and China's PE and PP imports are continuously decreasing [2]. - In terms of inventory and demand, downstream demand for polyolefins remains in the seasonal off - season, with factories mainly making rigid purchases. The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film has a slight rebound, while the demand for packaging film is weak. The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products fluctuates slightly. The demand side is expected to remain weak. Mid - and upstream polyolefin inventories are slowly decreasing, but the total inventory is higher year - on - year [2]. 3. Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - delivery: L09 - L01 reverse spread, PP09 - PP01 reverse spread [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 [3] 4. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 4.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report provides charts of the main contract trends, basis, and inter - delivery spreads of LL and PP, including LL North China - main contract basis, L1 - L5, L5 - L9, L9 - L1 for LL, and PP East China - main contract basis, PP1 - PP5, PP5 - PP9, PP9 - PP1 for PP [15]. 4.2 Polyolefin Production Plan - Domestic: Multiple plants have been put into operation in 2025, and many are waiting to start production, such as ExxonMobil Huizhou's 500,000 - ton/year LDPE plant. The total planned production capacity of new domestic plants is large, indicating continuous growth in domestic supply [18][20]. - Overseas: Some plants were put into operation in 2025, and many are in the un - started state. Overseas under - construction plants face many uncertainties, and delays may be common [22]. 4.3 Polyolefin Maintenance Plan - PE: The maintenance season of PE plants has ended, and maintenance losses have increased. The report shows historical maintenance data of PE, oil - based PE, coal - based PE, and alkane - based PE [23][36]. - PP: PP plant maintenance losses fluctuate slightly, and the maintenance volume of PDH - made PP plants is still at a high level [36]. 4.4 Polyolefin Monthly Output - In June, domestic PE output was 2.555 million tons, a decrease of 49,000 tons from May. LLDPE output decreased by 44,000 tons, HDPE increased by 27,000 tons, and LDPE decreased by 33,000 tons. Domestic PP output was 3.165 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from May. PP fiber output increased by 12,000 tons, PP homopolymer decreased by 10,000 tons, and PP copolymer remained unchanged [47]. 4.5 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE: The production profit of oil - based PE is - 130 yuan/ton, and the operating rate is 90.2%, an increase of 6.3% from last month. With the restart of maintenance plants, the operating rate is expected to increase [62]. - PP: The production profit of oil - based PP is - 522 yuan/ton, and that of PDH - made PP is 394 yuan/ton. The PDH - made PP operating rate is rising. The overall PP operating rate is 83.6%, a decrease of 0.6% from last month [62]. 4.6 Polyolefin Non - standard Price Spread and Operating Ratio - PE: The production ratio of LLDPE and HDPE has decreased, while that of LDPE has increased. The operating ratio of LLDPE, HDPE, and LDPE has changed accordingly. The non - standard price spreads between HD injection - LL and LDPE - LLDPE have different trends [69]. - PP: The production ratios of PP fiber and PP copolymer injection have decreased, while that of PP non - standard homopolymer injection has increased. The operating ratios of different PP products have also changed, and the non - standard price spread between PP low - melt copolymer and PP fiber has declined [69]. 4.7 Polyolefin Outer - market Price Spread and Import - Export Profit - LL: The import profit in East China is - 26 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 69 US dollars/ton. The import window is closed, and China's PE imports are decreasing [85]. - PP: The import profit of PP fiber in East China is - 445 yuan/ton, and the export profit is - 26 US dollars/ton. China's PP imports and exports have decreased [85]. 4.8 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE: The operating rate of PE's downstream agricultural film is 27%, an increase of 10% from last month. The operating rate of PE's downstream packaging film is 51%, remaining unchanged from last month [109]. - PP: The operating rate of PP's downstream woven products is 41%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream BOPP is 58%, a decrease of 1% from last month. The operating rate of PP's downstream injection molding remains unchanged [109]. 4.9 Polyolefin Downstream Inventory and Order Situation - PE: The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream agricultural film are 8.1 days, remaining unchanged from last month. The order days are 2.8 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PE's downstream packaging film are 7.2 days, an increase of 0.1 days from last month. The order days are 8.1 days, an increase of 0.2 days from last month [115]. - PP: The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream BOPP are 9.1 days, a decrease of 0.4 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 10.6 days, a decrease of 0.2 days from last month. The order days are 8.7 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The raw - material inventory days of PP's downstream woven products are 6.7 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month. The finished - product inventory days are 6.1 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from last month. The order days are 6.9 days, a decrease of 0.6 days from last month [115]. 4.10 Polyolefin Actual Inventory - The upstream petrochemical inventory is 750,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from last month. As the downstream is still in the off - season in August, the inventory is expected to increase slightly [130].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market should focus on compressing the profit position of styrene. Pure benzene supply and demand are both increasing, while styrene supply is increasing and demand is decreasing. Currently, styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and it is mainly considered for short - selling. The port inventory of styrene is in an accelerated accumulation stage. The downstream operating rate of pure benzene is gradually recovering, and the industry is gradually entering the inventory replenishment stage. The short - term market still has support at 5600 - 5700. [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene and Styrene Market Supply - Domestic pure benzene: The planned maintenance loss in July was about 90,000 tons, which decreased to 40,000 tons in August, and the planned maintenance in September was 70,000 tons. New pure benzene plants will be put into operation intensively from July to September. [3] - Imported pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in the US has stabilized and rebounded. The profit of STDP plants is negative, and the output rate is still decreasing. The profit of US styrene has been squeezed from a high level, but the operating rate has recovered from 50% in June to nearly 65% - 70% in July. The arbitrage window for styrene from the US to Europe has closed, and the incremental demand in August is expected to come from South America. [3] Demand - Styrene: There has been a large increase in supply recently. New plants such as Jingbo Petrochemical (680,000 tons, put into operation in early August) and Jilin Petrochemical (600,000 tons, put into operation on September 20) are about to be launched. [3] - Caprolactam: It was in a state of increasing load in July, and some plants plan to reduce the load after August. A new 300,000 - ton plant of Hengyi in Guangxi Qinzhou is planned to be put into operation in October. [3] - Phenol: Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 400,000 - ton plant was put into operation in July, Jilin Petrochemical's plant will be put into operation in late August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to put it into operation in October. [3] - Aniline: Some plants such as Jinmao Aluminum and Chemical, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted, and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s new plant has been put into operation and is currently operating at a low load. Yantai Wanhua plans to conduct rotational maintenance from August to September. [3] - 3S hard plastics downstream of styrene: EPS and PS have clearly entered the summer off - season, with continuous inventory accumulation and reduced operating rates. The overall demand for ABS remains medium - high and shows resilience. [3] Valuation - The reasonable valuation of pure benzene 2603 is 6000 yuan/ton. The current styrene futures price structure has turned to contango, and the largest structural opportunity this year is approaching the end. [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Short on rallies. - Inter - period: Temporarily take profit on cash - and - carry arbitrage and reverse cash - and - carry arbitrage in the futures market. - Inter - commodity: Buy BZ03 and sell EB09, and take profit on the position of compressing profit temporarily. [3] 3.2 Pure Benzene Delivery Standards - The overall delivery settings are uniform. The benchmark delivery areas are Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai. Different regions have different premium and discount settings. [5] Production Capacity - The production capacity of pure benzene before 2005 was 3.26 million tons, accounting for 12%. [20] Market Situation in 2025 - In the first half of 2025, the price continued to decline, mainly due to pre - Spring Festival market over - speculation and the non - implementation of downstream production capacity expansion expectations. In the second half of the year, domestic supply continued to increase, but it gradually entered the de - stocking pattern. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. It is expected that the apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 will be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. [30] 3.3 Styrene Production Capacity - The production capacity of styrene before 2005 was 1.12 million tons, accounting for 5%. [21] Market Situation in 2025 - The global styrene output contracted in the first half of 2025. Currently, styrene is in a pattern of high inventory, medium - level profit (recently compressed). [70][76] Future Outlook - Pay attention to the issue of the price ratio between aromatics and olefins. Styrene in the far - month should not have profit. [69][81] 3.4 Downstream Products of Pure Benzene Phenol - It is expected that the apparent demand for phenol in 2025 will be 6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. [52] Caprolactam - It is expected that the apparent demand for caprolactam in 2025 will be about 7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. [55] Adipic Acid - The annual apparent demand for adipic acid is about 1.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. [57] Aniline - It is expected that the apparent demand for aniline in 2025 will remain at 3.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. [61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report Core Views - **PX**: Unilateral prices are expected to be moderately strong with a bullish spread between the September and January contracts. Suggest rolling long positions in the PX calendar spread, and also pay attention to the strategy of going long on PX and short on EB/EG [3][5]. - **PTA**: Due to weak downstream demand and cost - related factors, TA prices will fluctuate. The spread between the September and January contracts should be traded within the range of 20 - 70. PTA is expected to have a slight inventory build - up, and the basis may stabilize and rebound. Consider strategies such as going long on PTA and short on PF [7]. - **MEG**: The September - January spread should reduce positions. Unilateral prices should be traded within the range of 4250 - 4450. The basis and spread suggest exiting the calendar spread long positions in the short - term. The upside for the unilateral price is limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX - **Valuation and Profit**: Unilateral prices are moderately strong, and the 9 - 1 spread rebounds. The gasoline crack spread declines, and the Asian aromatics blending demand weakens. The toluene disproportionation profit is decent, and the PX - MX spread remains high [21][34][44]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic production capacity utilization slightly decreases, and attention should be paid to potential maintenance at Tianjin Petrochemical in late July. Overseas, some plants have restarts and shutdowns. The apparent consumption in May was 355 tons, and the maintenance loss in July decreases. The import volume in May rebounded to 773,000 tons [55][59][64]. - **Inventory**: The monthly inventory in June decreased to 4.35 million tons [83]. PTA - **Valuation and Profit**: The calendar spread long positions should take profit. The basis rebounds from the bottom, and the processing fee is at a low level, with weakening profits in the polyester segment [94][104]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate remains stable at 79.7%. Pay attention to the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang's new plant. The export volume in May decreased significantly to 270,000 tons, and is expected to rebound in June and July. The inventory has increased [107][115][135]. MEG - **Valuation and Profit**: Unilateral valuation is in a range - bound market, and the spread weakens with limited downside. The profits in each segment decline month - on - month, and MTO and ethylene - purchased MEG production are in severe losses [141][149]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate decreased month - on - month. The import volume in June was 620,000 tons, and is expected to remain the same in July. The import profit is generally low, the visible inventory is low, and the invisible inventory has been increasing [156][160][167]. Polyester Segment - **Valuation and Profit**: No specific information on valuation and profit is provided. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate is 88.5% (- 0.3%). The production of polyester has increased by 8% year - on - year. The inventory pressure of filament yarn has increased significantly, while the inventory of staple fiber and bottle chips is acceptable [171][178][180].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7223 | 7225 | 7243 | 7219 | 5 | 0.07% | 114,889 | 1,041 | | Plastic 2605 | 7199 | 7200 | 7218 | 7197 | -1 | -0.01% | 1,816 | 35 | | Plastic 2509 | 7255 | 7245 | 7264 | 7240 | -5 | -0.07% | 448,580 | -332 | | PP2601 | 7026 | 7006 | 7031 | 7002 | -17 | -0.24% | 109,780 | -590 | | PP2605 | 7016 | 6997 | 7016 | 6997 | -12 | -0.17% | 3,907 | 194 | | PP2509 | 7066 | 7045 | 7070 | 7042 | -14 | -0.20% | 402,080 | -2,959 | [5] Spot Market Quotes - PE Market: Most PE market prices declined. In North China, some linear PE prices dropped by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure, low - pressure, and linear PE prices dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear and low - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and some high - pressure PE prices dropped by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7,160 - 7,400 yuan/ton, in East China were 7,200 - 7,650 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7,350 - 7,600 yuan/ton [7]. - Shandong Propylene Market: The market price declined slightly, closing at 6,400 - 6,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [7]. - PP Market: The PP market continued to decline slightly, with a range of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The upstream petrochemical factory prices continued to decline, traders lacked confidence and actively sold goods, and some offers still had discounts. Downstream buyers made rigid purchases, and actual transactions focused on negotiation. The mainstream prices of North China drawn PP in the morning were 7,010 - 7,110 yuan/ton, in East China were 7,000 - 7,180 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7,050 - 7,230 yuan/ton [7]. Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - LianSu L2509 opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed lower at 7,245 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.07%), with a trading volume of 210,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 332 to 448,580 lots. The PP main contract closed at 7,045 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan, a decrease of 0.20%, with an open interest decrease of 2,959 lots to 401,300 lots [6]. - The weak and fluctuating futures market increased market wait - and - see sentiment, and the market trading atmosphere was cautious. New production capacities were gradually put into operation, and the intensity of device maintenance decreased, putting pressure on the supply side. In July, there were plans to put into operation the fourth line of Yulong Petrochemical and the first line of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical for PP, and the second - phase HDPE of Jilin Petrochemical. The overall supply pressure was increasing. The off - season demand lacked support, and downstream buyers mostly maintained a low - inventory strategy. The supply - demand margin was deteriorating, and the market showed a unilateral downward trend [6]. Group 4: Industry News - On July 8, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons (yesterday's inventory was revised to 790,000 tons), a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 1.27%. The inventory in the same period last year was 780,000 tons [7]. Group 5: Data Overview - The report includes data on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventories, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][17]

Report Title - Benzene Ethylene Weekly Report: EB: Supply-demand margin weakens, inventory stops falling, focus on raw material resonance opportunities [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Although there is a strong expectation of OPEC+ production increase, the macro - environment is stable, and the peak season boosts, so oil prices maintain a volatile trend. On the pure benzene side, both domestic supply and demand increase, but supply increases more than demand. Due to the non - opening of the America - Asia arbitrage window and the successive return of maintenance devices in Japan and South Korea, high imports are expected to continue. The destocking of pure benzene port inventory is difficult, with relatively large year - on - year pressure, which drags down the styrene price. For styrene, weekly supply increases while demand decreases. Some upstream devices will resume production in June, and some downstream sectors enter the off - season. There are pressures in terms of profit and inventory on the 3S side, so it is difficult to effectively drive the styrene price. Styrene inventory stops falling and accumulates this week, and is expected to enter a volatile stage, mainly focusing on the absolute year - on - year level. Currently, the estimated valuation of styrene is still high. Considering the fundamentals of pure benzene, the valuation regression probably requires a downward correction of styrene. Therefore, maintain a short - selling idea for styrene, pay attention to raw material resonance opportunities in terms of rhythm, and be vigilant against macro risks [3] Strategy Recommendations Futures Strategy - Maintain a short - selling idea for styrene, with the upper resistance level for the near - month contract at 7400 [4] Option Strategy - Sell EB2507 - C - 7500 [4] Summary by Directory Pure Benzene 2025 Production and Investment Plan - Multiple companies in different provinces have plans for pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products in 2025. For example, Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong has a 100 - million - ton pure benzene production plan from 2024Q4 - 2025 and a 50 - million - ton styrene production plan in 2025Q1 [6] 2025 May - July Device Dynamics - Many companies' devices have maintenance plans from May to July 2025, such as Hubei Jin'ao's device, which stopped for maintenance on March 11 and is expected to restart in mid - May [8] Supply, Demand, and Inventory - From May to July 2025, the planned new pure benzene production capacity is about 1.33 million tons/year, and the downstream new production capacity is about 400,000 tons/year. The planned pure benzene shutdown involves a production capacity of 4.46 million tons/year, and the downstream shutdown production capacity is about 5.89 million tons/year. The net supply reduction is about 239,000 tons, and the net demand reduction is about 341,000 tons. Overall, inventory is expected to accumulate [9] Price and Profit - The prices of pure benzene in different regions and the price differences between different regions are presented in the report. The toluene disproportionation profit is relatively low [15] Downstream Situation - The weighted downstream operating rate of pure benzene has recently declined slightly. The styrene profit has rebounded significantly, while the profits of other products are still weak [36][43] Styrene and Its Downstream Spot and Futures - The spot price, basis, and monthly spread of styrene are presented in the report [53] Supply - The monthly and weekly production, operating rate, and profit of styrene are shown. Asia has multiple styrene device exits, and China is gradually changing from a net importer to a net exporter of styrene [58][70] Inventory - Styrene port inventory has stopped falling and continued to accumulate [71] Downstream Situation - The 3S production capacity growth rate is high, intensifying industry competition. The estimated weekly styrene consumption converted from 3S production has decreased. The downstream prices have weakened, and the profits are under pressure. The high - production inventory is higher year - on - year, indicating possible demand transmission resistance. After the implementation of tariffs, exports are likely to be restricted, and domestic demand should focus on subsidy stimulation [76][81][92]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ななな [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: なな女 な女女 [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply, demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, Shanghai copper main contract closed up above 78,000 yuan. Today, spot copper price adjusted to 78,415 yuan. Shanghai copper premium narrowed to 90 yuan, and Guangdong copper was at a discount of 15 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 4,200 tons to 148,800 tons this week. Suggest to short on rebounds or actively roll over contracts [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined today. East China spot premium slightly dropped to 90 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory increased by 2,000 tons. Demand faces seasonal weakening and trade friction. Shanghai aluminum has resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Guinea mining area incident has temporarily subsided. Alumina has an over - supply situation in the long - term. Suggest to short on highs for both aluminum and alumina [3] Zinc - Overseas mines are expected to increase output in Q2 compared to Q1. Domestic CZSPT's Q3 2025 import ore TC guidance price is 80 - 100 dollars/dry ton. Zinc social inventory is expected to fluctuate at a low level, but total supply of zinc ingots and zinc alloys will increase. Consumption off - season is emerging. Suggest to short on rebounds [4] Lead - Thursday, SMM 1 lead average price rose by 75 yuan to 16,500 yuan/ton. High spot - futures price difference promotes warehousing. Lead - acid battery consumption is in the off - season. SMM lead social inventory increased to 53,900 tons. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel futures price oscillated downwards. Trade conflicts have spread to the steel sector. Stainless steel supply remains high, and consumption peak season is ending. Philippines nickel ore supply is expected to increase. Suggest to short on rebounds [7] Tin - Shanghai tin weighted price oscillated below the annual line. Today, spot tin price increased by 4,100 yuan to 259,600 yuan. Low - grade tin复产 may be more difficult than expected. Suggest to hold previous high - level short positions and roll over contracts on rebounds [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. Total market inventory decreased by 200 tons to 131,600 tons, downstream inventory increased by 800 tons, and smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons. Mid - stream production increased by 3% month - on - month. Suggest to participate in the oscillatory rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures slightly declined. Supply is increasing while demand growth in photovoltaic and organic silicon slows down. High inventory persists. Although there are signs of oversold, the downward trend remains. Suggest to maintain a bearish view [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures decreased with reduced positions. Domestic distributed demand declined. June downstream production plans are tightened, while polysilicon production is expected to increase. Inventory pressure rises slightly. Price tends to oscillate weakly [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The expected increase in production by OPEC+ has led to a decline in crude oil prices, dragging down the center of gravity of the aromatic hydrocarbon system from the valuation side. The recent rebound of styrene was mainly driven by tariff relaxation and the strengthening of spot goods under low inventory. However, this week, the spot market has shown some weakness, with prices starting to fall. Fundamentally, the high inventory of styrene's downstream 3S products may indicate an unsmooth transmission to the end - market. Coupled with ongoing profit challenges and the lack of a significant increase in orders during the export rush, there is a negative feedback expectation for high - priced styrene in the future. Additionally, the supply - demand situation of pure benzene, a raw material, has not improved significantly. With the return of domestic maintenance and increased supply from South Korea, there is significant pressure to reduce inventory, and the price center of pure benzene may decline. Therefore, styrene is expected to be bearish in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 for the near - term contract. In terms of arbitrage, opportunities for the widening of the EB - BZ spread can be explored [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pure Benzene - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple companies in different provinces have plans to put new capacity into production for pure benzene, its downstream products (excluding styrene), styrene, and styrene downstream products in 2025. For example, Yulong Petrochemical in Shandong plans to add 100 tons of pure benzene production capacity from 2024Q4 - 2025 using multiple processes [7]. - **May - July 2025 Device Dynamics**: Many companies' pure benzene - related devices have planned maintenance or production stops during May - July 2025. As of now, it is estimated that the planned new capacity for pure benzene from May - July is 1.33 million tons/year, with about 400,000 tons/year of new downstream capacity. The planned shutdown of pure benzene involves 4.46 million tons/year of capacity, and the downstream shutdown capacity is about 5.89 million tons/year. Overall, the net supply of pure benzene will decrease by about 239,000 tons, and the net demand will decrease by about 341,000 tons, resulting in inventory accumulation [9][10]. - **Catalytic Cracking and Related Spreads**: The toluene disproportionation profit is relatively low, and various spreads such as the ethylene - naphtha spread, pure benzene - naphtha spread, etc., show different trends over time [16]. - **Price and Supply - Demand**: The price of pure benzene in East China and its international quotes show different trends. South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China have remained at a high level. Although there are more maintenance activities, high production and imports have led to inventory accumulation. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene's downstream has recently declined slightly, and except for styrene, the profits of other downstream products are still weak [21][27][32]. Styrene and Its Downstream - **Styrene Futures and Spot**: The styrene spot price and its basis, monthly spreads, and registered warehouse receipts show different trends over time [54]. - **Styrene Supply**: Styrene's monthly and weekly production, operating rate, non - integrated and integrated profits, and the styrene - pure benzene spread are presented. China is gradually changing from a net importer of styrene to a net exporter, and it has maintained export performance from April - May [59][71]. - **Styrene Inventory**: The port inventory of styrene is at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, while the factory inventory is accelerating inventory reduction but is still high compared to the same period [72]. - **Styrene Downstream**: The 3S products (PS, EPS, ABS) have high production capacity growth rates, which have intensified industry competition. As of May 22, the capacity utilization rates of EPS, PS, and ABS have changed. The estimated weekly consumption of styrene converted from 3S production has slightly decreased. The prices of 3S products have weakened, and their profits are under pressure. High production has led to relatively high inventory, indicating resistance in demand transmission. In the terminal market, exports are likely to be restricted after the implementation of tariffs, and domestic demand depends on subsidy incentives [77][80][90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For caustic soda, in the short term, the supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by the fundamentals and positive macro - drivers from the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the spot price is strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda after the reduction of coal and electricity costs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the resistance level of the near - month contract at around 2550 [3]. - For PVC, stimulated by the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the domestic commodity atmosphere is positive. In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction of PVC is limited due to concentrated maintenance, limited inventory pressure compared to the same period, and the expectation of rush exports of PVC products. But in the medium - to - long term, PVC still shows obvious over - supply pressure due to the lack of effective boost in the real estate market. It is recommended to wait and see, with the resistance level of the 09 contract at around 5150 [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Caustic Soda - **Caustic Soda Futures and Spot**: The price of caustic soda has fluctuated due to various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand changes, and alumina procurement prices. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts and the increase in alumina procurement willingness have led to a stronger market [7]. - **Caustic Soda Profit**: The current integrated profit is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past three years [13]. - **Caustic Soda Supply**: As of May 15, the national and Shandong regional weighted average operating rates decreased. In the second quarter, more maintenance is expected, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter. The inventory has decreased from the high point, and the current supply - demand pressure is limited, supporting the increase in the spot price [24]. - **Caustic Soda Device Dynamics**: Many companies in different regions have carried out maintenance or production capacity adjustments, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in 2025 [25]. - **Alumina**: From the end of 2024 to 2025, there are plans to put into operation 1230 million tons of alumina production capacity, with an estimated annual production capacity growth rate of around 10%. The new production lines stimulate the demand for caustic soda, and Shandong alumina plants have continuously raised the purchase price, supporting the spot price of caustic soda. However, the medium - term profit of alumina is still worrying [29][36]. - **Bauxite**: The price has declined, which may further drive down the price of alumina [37]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The weekly production remains at a high level [43]. - **Non - Aluminum Downstream**: The industry is fragmented, and the impact of tariffs needs to be monitored [47]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: The spot price has risen, and the estimated export profit compression window may close [54]. 3.2 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **PVC Futures and Spot**: The price of PVC has fluctuated due to factors such as energy - saving and carbon - reduction news, supply - demand changes, and macro - sentiment. Recently, the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the limited supply - demand contradiction during the concentrated maintenance period have led to a price rebound [61]. - **PVC Profit**: The overall industry profit is relatively low [67]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, the industry profit is under pressure, and the driving force for PVC is limited [72]. - **PVC Supply**: In April 2025, the production of PVC powder was 1.9264 million tons, and the cumulative production from January to April was 7.9262 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. As of May 15, the overall operating rate of PVC powder decreased. The second quarter is the concentrated period of seasonal maintenance, and the operating rate will decline compared to the first quarter [83]. - **PVC Device Dynamics**: Many companies have carried out maintenance, and there are also plans for new production capacity to be put into operation in the future [84]. - **PVC Downstream Demand**: The two major downstream sectors of PVC, profiles and pipes, face great pressure. The real estate sector still has a negative impact on demand. The hard - product performance is average, and the soft - product performance is relatively better. The downstream orders are significantly lower than the same period in the past five years, and both raw material and finished - product inventories are at high levels [92]. - **Real Estate Data**: The new construction of real estate is still weak, and attention should be paid to whether housing prices can stabilize effectively [93]. - **PVC Inventory**: After the festival, the inventory continued to decline, and the pressure compared to the same period was limited [100]. - **PVC Outer Market**: As of May 15, the Asian PVC market price was stable on a weekly basis. India's high imports are expected to continue, which theoretically benefits China's exports. However, the long - term implementation of India's BIS and anti - dumping duties will have a negative impact on PVC [118]. - **PVC Import and Export**: The US tariff has an impact on the export of terminal products. The BIS extension in India may benefit exports in the short term, but long - term policies need further attention [118].