1 | 国夜期货 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月08日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ★☆☆ | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属回落，美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，咯低于预期但好于前值，ISM非制造业PMI54.4好于预 期和前值,上期所调整白银期货交易限额、合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。开年全球地缘乱局延续, 资金情绪主导剧烈波动,贵金属在前高位置测试阻力,考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下降后寻找再入场机 会。今晚关注美国周度初请失业金数据。 ★美国务卿称下周将与丹麦举行会晤，讨论格陵兰岛议题。 ★特朗普: ...

| 国夜期货 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月08日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ★☆☆ | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日贵金属回落，美国12月ADP就业人数增加4.1万人，咯低于预期但好于前值，ISM非制造业PMI54.4好于预 期和前值,上期所调整白银期货交易限额、合约交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度。开年全球地缘乱局延续, 资金情绪主导剧烈波动,贵金属在前高位置测试阻力,考虑参与突破行情或等待波动率下降后寻找再入场机 会。今晚关注美国周度初请失业金数据。 ★美国务卿称下周将与丹麦举行会晤，讨论格陵兰岛议题。 ★特朗普:20 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-1-7 资金情绪维持向好，胶价延续走高 油脂： 现货库存去化，油脂窄幅震荡 蛋白粕： 阿根廷天气引发关注，双粕小幅上涨 玉米/淀粉： 轮入再度启动，价格区间震荡 生猪： 12月母猪存栏下降，远月盘面反弹 天然橡胶： 资金情绪维持向好，胶价延续走高 合成橡胶： 盘面跟随天胶上涨 棉花： 上涨趋势延续 白糖： 糖价小幅震荡 纸浆： 资金与宏观主导行情，纸浆期货反复震荡 双胶纸： 市场情绪回暖，双胶偏强运行 原木： 矛盾不大，区间操作 【异动品种】 天然橡㬵观点：资⾦情绪维持向好，㬵价延续⾛⾼ 逻辑：受商品整体情绪延续偏强带动，天胶维持上涨势头，突破并收于 16000元/吨大关上方。短期来说符合我们近半个月的判断，若仍能有相对 持续的增仓表现，或者说若商品市场维持较强的看涨情绪，胶价短期或有 进一步上行空间。基本面变化不大，我们认为更多来自于宏观的带动，即 资金从热门板块流出后的轮动。橡胶作为前期受关注较少，且偏多预期较 为一致的品种来说，提前于基本面发生边际变化前开始上涨。目前来说从 基本面的角度仍属于没有强驱动的阶段，具体来说 ...

12月26日，国内期市贵金属板块全线飘红。其中，钯期货主力合约开盘报560.00元/克，今日盘中高位 震荡运行；截至午间收盘，钯主力最高触及576.60元，下方探低528.00元，涨幅达2.42%。 目前来看，钯行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于钯后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点汇总 如下： 华闻期货分析称，美元弱势运行，铂钯本身基本面变动不大，从后续供需来看，铂供应缺口更明显，基 本面要强于钯，在国内相关交易政策的调整背景下，部分资金获利离场，钯价大幅下挫，而铂相对坚 挺，日内逆势翻红，短期继续关注资金情绪的变化，预计铂钯或继续大幅波动，警惕资金异动风险。 华联期货指出，由于汽车需求在钯金需求占绝对地位，由于中国新能源汽车渗透率激增，钯金需求增量 受到压制，短期难于看到好转，因此钯金的基本面支撑有限，走势受铂金联动及宏观环境影响。并且 2026年美联储仍在降息周期，利好贵稀金属，并且钯的价格也较低。操作上建议，钯金PD2606多单持 有，设好止盈。 银河期货表示，钯金总体需求增长较为有限，基本面给与驱动力量尚不足，未来或将更多受益于宏观环 境，与铂金价格走势出现联动。 ...

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a volatile trend. The main contract 2601 opened at 8305 yuan/ton and closed at 8250 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton (-2.19%) from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2601 was 171,757 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 7780 lots, an increase of 252 lots from the previous day [2]. Supply - Side Information - The spot price of industrial silicon declined slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 9100 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passed 553 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8600 - 8900 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [2]. - The price of silicon coal remained stable for now, but it was expected to loosen in some regions due to the downward - trending prices of raw coal and coking coal. The average price of non - caking silicon coal in Xinjiang was about 825 yuan/ton, the price range of caking silicon coal was about 1300 - 1650 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon coal in Shaanxi was about 880 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia was about 1260 yuan/ton, the average price of silicon mixed coal in Gansu was about 930 yuan/ton, and the average price of granular coal was about 1050 yuan/ton [2]. Demand - Side Information - The quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was also in this range, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous week. As the DMC market price stabilized, the purchasing sentiment of downstream customers became more rational. Due to the weak demand in the terminal market, it would take time for the price to be fully transmitted to the terminal [3]. Strategy - The spot price was affected by the futures market and showed a weak and volatile trend. The industrial silicon futures market declined significantly due to capital sentiment, and attention should be paid to the strength of the lower support. The industrial silicon market was mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there were policies to promote capacity exit, the market might rise as the current valuation was low. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and long positions could be considered when the price dropped significantly [4]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Analysis Price and Trading Information - On December 10, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures showed a wide - range volatile trend. It opened at 56000 yuan/ton and closed at 55915 yuan/ton, with a closing price increase of 1.62% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 54959 lots (68874 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 116207 lots [5]. Supply - Demand and Inventory Information - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.60 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 29.10 (a 3.38% change from the previous period), the silicon wafer inventory was 21.30GW (a 9.23% change), the weekly polysilicon output was 25800.00 tons (a 7.50% change), and the silicon wafer output was 11.95GW (a - 0.58% change). The estimated polysilicon output in December was 113500 tons, mainly due to production cuts in Inner Mongolia, and there were no major production cut plans in January [5][6]. Component Price Information - The mainstream transaction prices of components were as follows: PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.65 - 0.67 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply and demand of polysilicon both weakened, with a significant decline in consumption and high inventory pressure. The market was affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. After the establishment of the platform company, attention should be paid to the implementation of production and sales restrictions. The market fluctuated greatly recently, and participants should pay attention to risk management. It was expected that the market would mainly fluctuate. For single - side trading, short - term range operation was recommended, and the main contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 57000 yuan/ton [8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the sentiment towards spot gold remains bearish, with significant resistance levels above the current price [1] - Spot gold has reached a critical options betting level at 3324, which is likely to attract attention from investors [1] - The order ratio shows a slight bearish sentiment with 50.3% of orders being short and 49.7% being long, suggesting a cautious market outlook [1] Group 2 - There is a dense resistance zone above the price level of 3331, indicating potential challenges for upward movement [1] - A price stabilization above 3344.03 is necessary to alleviate some of the downward pressure on gold [1]

Report Summary Market Analysis - On July 23, 2025, the main contract 2509 of lithium carbonate opened at 73,500 yuan/ton and closed at 69,380 yuan/ton, a -4.07% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,334,159 lots, and the open interest was 362,054 lots, down from 411,638 lots the previous day. The basis was -2,470 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 10,754 lots, a change of 665 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,800 - 72,100 yuan/ton, a change of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,300 - 69,300 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,350 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 770 US dollars/ton, a change of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - Downstream material factories have low price acceptance, leading to a widening price gap between upstream and downstream. The market transactions are mainly between upstream lithium salt factories and traders, and downstream material enterprises generally adopt a wait - and - see attitude except for a small amount of rigid procurement, resulting in light trading volume [1]. Strategy - The sharp decline in the futures market was mainly affected by the cooling of overall commodity and capital sentiment and news of a mining end loosening. The outcome of the lithium mine suspension is still unknown. In the short - term, news and warehouse receipt games have a significant impact, so risk management is recommended. If the mining end disturbances weaken in the future, the upstream can sell hedging in the far - month contracts [2]. - For unilateral trading, sell hedging at high prices when appropriate [2]. - There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural market shows a mixed trend with various commodities experiencing different price movements and market conditions. The overall market is influenced by a combination of factors including supply - demand dynamics, weather, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions. Each commodity is expected to have its own short - to - medium - term outlook, mainly ranging from "oscillation" to "oscillation with a certain bias" [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1油脂 - **观点**：马棕6月库存高于预期，MPOB报告相对偏空，近期油脂或继续震荡分化 [5]. - **逻辑**：美豆类下跌，国内三大油脂震荡分化；美国对外贸易紧张，美元盘整，原油微跌；美豆长势良好，优良率66%，美国“大而美”法案提振生柴对美豆油需求，巴西将提高生柴掺混比例；国内进口大豆到港量大使豆油库存回升；MPOB报告显示马棕6月出口低于预期、库存高于预期，7 - 9月增产压力增大；国内菜油库存高位但缓慢下降，中加贸易关系不确定 [5]. 3.1.2蛋白粕 - **观点**：巴西贴水再度上涨，盘面区间下方反弹，短期区间震荡运行 [6]. - **逻辑**：国际大豆贸易升贴水有变化，中国主要采购巴西大豆支撑其升贴水上涨；美豆多空交织区间震荡；国内供应压力大但盘面受成本支撑，豆粕累库、胀库压力增大，下游补库不足，油厂开机率下降；长期看9月大豆买船加速，四季度偏慢，能繁母猪存栏预示豆粕消费刚需或稳中有增 [6]. 3.1.3玉米/淀粉 - **观点**：市场心态承压，期现窄幅震荡 [6]. - **逻辑**：期货主力合约低位震荡，现货贸易环节出货积极性提高，部分企业收购价调低；进口玉米拍卖成交率76%；24/25年进口同比下降，期末库存预计去化，但小麦和进口玉米补充供应，新季玉米成本下移，市场情绪转弱，关注库存去化和短期紧缺反弹风险；美玉米2025/26年度期末库存预计低于上月预测 [6][7]. 3.1.4生猪 - **观点**：消费走货一般，生猪现货回调，短期猪价由弱转强，中长期有供应压制风险 [8]. - **逻辑**：供应上，短期7月计划出栏量减少，散户二育心态复苏，中期下半年出栏量或增长，长期产能仍在高位，若落后产能出清将带来向好预期；需求方面，肉猪比价和肥标价差下降；库存上，降重趋势有分歧，散户有累库趋势；节奏上，短期宏观调控带来利好，集团场出栏压力部分释放，中长期供应压力仍在，需关注库存和供给侧调整 [8]. 3.1.5天然橡胶 - **观点**：资金情绪快速推涨胶价 [1][11]. - **逻辑**：受资金情绪影响，商品市场多头情绪浓厚，橡胶前期未跟涨估值偏低，且与宏观强关联，补涨合理；基本面短期无大矛盾，供给端亚洲产区雨季原料价格反弹，7、8月船货到港预计偏少；需求端部分轮胎企业开工恢复，库存积压好转，三季度或有去库交易，若宏观情绪维持，胶价易涨难跌 [1][11]. 3.1.6合成橡胶 - **观点**：盘面跟随上涨，整体维持区间震荡运行 [13]. - **逻辑**：受天胶冲高和商品市场情绪带动盘面走高，丁二烯价格本周企稳，但终端需求弱势，市场成交多为刚需，供应端压力累积，供需矛盾凸显，行情偏弱 [13]. 3.1.7棉花 - **观点**：棉价小幅波动，驱动不强，短期震荡 [13]. - **逻辑**：新棉25/26年度中国及海外主产国有增产预期，美棉面积下滑产量预计持平；需求端处于消费淡季，纺织厂开机下滑、成品累库，采购需求转弱；库存端全国商业库存同期偏低，新花上市前低库存格局难改支撑棉价，但新作增产预期抑制上方空间，关注天气变化 [13]. 3.1.8白糖 - **观点**：糖价小幅上涨，但上方高度受限，长期震荡偏弱，短期震荡 [15]. - **逻辑**：25/26榨季全球糖市预期供应宽松，主产国均有增产预期；巴西入榨量和食糖生产量同比下滑，制糖比提高但食糖高产有变数；印度季风降雨利于甘蔗生长；国内进入纯销售期，产销率高，工业库存同比下滑，但进口预计增加；巴西出口增多，供应边际压力将显现 [15]. 3.1.9纸浆 - **观点**：商品普遍大涨，纸浆跟随走高，期货走势震荡 [16]. - **逻辑**：期货跟随宏观氛围上涨，现货同步；供需数据偏弱势，欧洲港口库存走高，月度美金盘价格走低，下游纸制品产销季节性偏弱；但价格进入低位区间，金融市场走势偏暖，预计反弹继续但技术压力渐显 [16]. 3.1.10原木 - **观点**：现货下跌压力较大，盘面底部震荡，中期维持区间760 - 830运行 [17][18]. - **逻辑**：07合约交割使交割品货源流通压力大，现货有下跌压力，买卖双方成本提升；进入7 - 8月季节性淡季但需求平稳，去库缓慢，新一期外商报价提涨，整体现货处于筑底阶段；伴随交割博弈结束，市场回归基本面主导，关注基差变化 [17][18]. 3.2品种数据监测 - The report lists various commodities such as oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, etc., but no specific data monitoring details are provided in the given text. 3.3评级标准 - The report provides a rating standard for the expected price movement of commodities over the next 2 - 12 weeks, including "stronger," "oscillating with an upward bias," "oscillating," "oscillating with a downward bias," and "weaker," with the standard deviation defined as "1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price" [168].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are affected by capital sentiment, with slight rebounds in the futures markets. The industrial silicon market shows stable spot prices, while the polysilicon market also has stable spot prices and decreasing inventories [1][4]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts are continuously decreasing, and the visible inventory has also decreased, but the total inventory may still be in a pattern of accumulation. The polysilicon market has weak fundamentals, but there are expectations of industry self - discipline production cuts, and the price is easily affected by news when it is low [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 24, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2509 opened at 7380 yuan/ton and closed at 7485 yuan/ton, a change of 1.08% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2509 was 293427 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on June 25, 2025 was 53570 lots, a decrease of 614 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 8400 - 9000 yuan/ton, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton, and the price of 99 silicon was 7500 - 7700 yuan/ton [1]. - The consumption side: The price of silicone DMC was 10200 - 10600 yuan/ton. In May 2025, the export volume of primary polysiloxane in China was 46600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.10% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.51%. From January to May 2025, the cumulative export volume was 228900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.73% [1]. - **Strategy** - The warehouse receipts of industrial silicon are continuously decreasing, and the visible inventory has also decreased, but the total inventory may still be in a pattern of accumulation. The recent futures price is oscillating. During the meeting organized by the association in recent days, attention should be paid to various news. The trading strategy is mainly range operation, and upstream enterprises can sell hedging at high prices [2]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On June 24, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures oscillated. It opened at 30615 yuan/ton and closed at 31085 yuan/ton, a change of 0.48% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 72286 lots (78183 lots in the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 171969 lots [4]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 30.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 28.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 27.00 - 30.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 33.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg [4]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased slightly. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 26200 tons, a month - on - month change of - 4.70%, the silicon wafer inventory was 18.74GW, a month - on - month change of - 3.10%. The weekly output of polysilicon was 24500 tons, a month - on - month change of 2.94%, and the silicon wafer output was 12.90GW, a month - on - month change of - 1.53% [4]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with only a slight decrease in the price of Topcon210RN battery cells [4][6]. - **Strategy** - The futures price oscillated on that day, with a certain rebound during the session, and the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals are weak, but there are expectations of industry self - discipline production cuts. The price is easily affected by news when it is low, and the futures price may oscillate widely. The trading strategy is range operation [7].