目前DDR4报价有效期已缩短至不到一个月，代表价格可能在数周内再次上调。 DDR3涨势更强，第四季有望出现高双位数涨幅。 针对NOR Flash，维持第四季上涨5-10%预期。 随着AirPods等物联网产品与服务器需求潜在增长，NOR供应缺口将从低个位数扩大至中个位数。 闪德资讯获悉，据摩根士丹利报告指出，随着主流存储市场转强，DDR4和DDR3在第四季度将有更大涨价空间，传统型 NAND与NOR存储价格稳定迹象逐渐增强，并有望延续至2026年。 DRAM部分，存储供应商已停止向企业客户提供报价，意味价格仍有上行空间。 并将美光上调至"优于大盘"，目前参与内存上行周期仍不晚。 至于NAND，闪迪已与力积电接洽，讨论未来可能的产能支持，但认为合作机率偏低。 预期未来三季，DDR4供应短缺比例将达10-15%，后段制程瓶颈可能进一步加剧这一情况，因此部分DDR4合约价在第四 季可能翻倍。 闪德资讯，一个聚焦关注存储产业供应链和趋势变化的垂直媒体。 预期到2026年，AirPods将占全球NOR需求5–10%，因每副AirPods需使用三颗高密度NOR Flash芯片，意味NOR涨价趋势可 望延续至2026年。 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry, particularly memory segments (DRAM, NAND, NOR Flash), is experiencing an unprecedented supercycle driven by AI demand [1][2][3] - Chinese memory players are aggressively expanding capacity to meet rising demand [1][2] Key Points on DRAM - **DDR4 Shortage**: Expected to continue until at least Q4 2026, with a projected 10-15% undersupply over the next three quarters, potentially worsened by back-end constraints [2][10][12] - **Price Increases**: Nanya Tech reported a preliminary revenue increase of 79% Q/Q, with average selling prices (ASPs) expected to rise at least 20% Q/Q as market dynamics favor sellers [2][11] - **Long-term Outlook**: Mainstream DRAM players are likely to focus on DDR5 and HBM, providing minimal support for DDR4, which is expected to see a significant decline in demand [14][15] Key Points on NAND - **Demand Divergence**: NAND demand is increasing significantly in AI applications, with CSPs doubling their NL eSSD orders for 2026 [3][48] - **Projected Shortages**: Anticipated 2% NAND shortage in 2026, with a bull case projecting up to an 8% shortage by year-end [3][48] - **Price Expectations**: NAND pricing is expected to rise by at least mid-teens percentage in 2026, benefiting companies like Phison [3][48] Key Points on NOR Flash - **Pricing Support**: NOR pricing is expected to remain well-supported due to capped supply growth and potential demand from IoT applications [4] - **Market Dynamics**: AirPods could account for 5-10% of global NOR demand by 2026, indicating sustained price hikes into 2026 [4] Company-Specific Insights - **Price Target Adjustments**: Price targets raised for Nanya Tech (from NT$90 to NT$110), Phison (from NT$800 to NT$1,000), and Silicon Motion (from US$88 to US$100) [7] - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies like Nanya Tech, Winbond, and GigaDevice are favored due to their positioning in the memory upcycle [5][16] - **Earnings Forecasts**: Phison's EPS forecasts have been revised upward by 3% for 2026 and 6% for 2027, reflecting strong NAND pricing trends [68] Additional Insights - **Localization Trends**: Ongoing localization of wafer fab equipment in China is expected to strengthen the domestic semiconductor industry [59][60] - **Capacity Expansion**: CXMT and YMTC are set to expand their capacities significantly, with CXMT potentially exceeding 300k wpm in the long term [61][62] Conclusion - The semiconductor industry, particularly in memory segments, is poised for significant growth driven by AI demand and capacity expansions from Chinese players. Companies like Nanya Tech, Phison, and SIMO are well-positioned to benefit from these trends, with favorable pricing dynamics expected to continue into 2026 and beyond.

October 6, 2025 08:00 PM GMT Greater China Semiconductor | Asia Pacific Old Memory Could Last for a Longer Time Along with stronger mainstream memory, we see stronger pricing upside for DDR4&3 in 4Q and more signs of pricing sustainability for legacy NAND and NOR going into 2026. It is time to look at peak valuations. We revise up price targets and reiterate our Top Pick Winbond. Key Takeaways Never too late on mainstream memory: Our US analyst Joe Moore upgraded Micron to OW (link), stating it's not too la ...

在主流芯片高歌猛进的同时，旧款存储芯片市场正在开启一个值得关注的盈利窗口。 报告首先指出了主流存储市场的紧张局势，这是理解旧款芯片行情的关键背景。 DRAM方面 ：主流DRAM供应商已停止向企业客户提供第四季度的报价。在行业内，这通常是供应短缺、价格即将大幅上涨的强烈信号。 NAND方面 ：行业巨头SanDisk已开始接触力积电（PSMC），探讨未来潜在的产能支持。尽管考虑到SanDisk与铠侠（Kioxia）的合资协议以及技 术差异，双方合作的可能性较低，但这一举动本身就印证了整个NAND行业正面临供应不足的困境。 旧款DRAM价格飙升，涨势或超预期 主流市场的短缺效应，正迅速传导至旧款DDR4和DDR3市场，其价格涨幅甚至可能超过主流产品。 旧款存储芯片迎来"第二春"，繁荣期超预期。 摩根士丹利在2025年10月6日发布的最新研报中表示，旧款存储芯片（Legacy Memory）的繁荣期不仅比市场预期的更强劲，且可能持续更久，直至 2026年。主流存储芯片的供应紧张正传导至旧款产品，导致DDR4、DDR3及NOR Flash等芯片价格出现超预期上涨。 这一趋势为特定半导体公司带来了显著的投资机会。在主流芯 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends and price changes of various semiconductor components, highlighting the increasing demand and market dynamics in the chip industry [3][4][5]. Summary by Sections Popular Chip Models - The article lists several chip models that have seen increased inquiry and popularity, including: 1. **W25Q128JVSIQ**: Despite a decline in heat, it remains a top-ranked NOR Flash with stable pricing around 3.5 to 4 yuan [5][9]. 2. **88EA1512B2-NNP2A000**: This chip's price surged from approximately 24 yuan to 40 yuan following its acquisition by Infineon [10][11]. 3. **AT7456E**: This video character overlay chip has regained popularity, with prices rising to around 15 yuan from a typical price of 8 yuan [16][17]. 4. **ADXL357BEZ**: The MEMS accelerometer's price has skyrocketed to between 800 and 1000 yuan, driven by demand in smart automotive navigation and drones [18][19]. 5. **ICM-42688-P**: This 6-axis motion tracker has seen increased inquiries, with prices rising to 10-13 yuan [20][21]. 6. **DPS368XTSA1**: The micro digital pressure sensor's price increased from around 8 yuan to approximately 18 yuan, with reports of shortages [23][24]. 7. **LSM303AGRTR**: This high-performance electronic compass module has maintained a stable price around 8 yuan [25][26]. Market Dynamics - The article emphasizes the shifting landscape in the semiconductor market, with certain models experiencing significant price fluctuations and demand spikes due to their applications in emerging technologies such as automotive systems and consumer electronics [3][4][10][18].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor storage industry is expected to experience steady growth driven by the maturation of generative AI and large language models, alongside sustained demand for core hardware, potentially leading to a price and volume increase from 2025 onwards, maintaining a rating of outperforming the market [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The NAND price sentiment is rising due to enterprise-level stocking and new smartphone demands, with significant capital expenditures from domestic internet companies, such as Alibaba's investment of 38.6 billion yuan in AI and cloud infrastructure in Q2 2025, and Tencent's capital expenditure doubling to 19.107 billion yuan in the same period [3]. - The DRAM market is experiencing a significant price increase due to the EOL notifications from manufacturers, with expectations of a 20%-50% quarter-on-quarter price rise in Q4 2025, following a 70% increase in contract prices for Nanya Technology in Q3 2025 [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The NOR Flash market is expected to see a healthy supply-demand balance, with price increases projected to reach double-digit percentages in Q4 2025, driven by rising AI data center demands and a recovering automotive market [5]. - The niche DRAM market is facing a supply shortage as major overseas manufacturers exit, leading to price increases, with expectations of continued price hikes throughout the year [5]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include: for niche storage - Zhaoyi Innovation, Puran, Juchen, and Dongxin; for module manufacturers - Kaipu Cloud, Jiangbolong, Demingli, Baiwei Storage, and Shannon Chip Creation; for storage supporting chips - Lanke Technology and Lianyun Technology [6].

Group 1 - The DRAM market is experiencing significant price increases due to the discontinuation of older process DRAM products by manufacturers, with expectations of a 20%-50% quarter-on-quarter price increase in Q4 2025 [1][3] - Nanya Technology's contract price surged by 70% in Q3 2025 and is expected to rise by another 50% in Q4 2025, while Winbond's prices increased by 60% in Q3 2025 and are projected to rise by 20% in Q4 2025 [1][3] - The market is facing a supply-demand imbalance as major manufacturers exit the niche DRAM market, leading to continued price increases throughout the year [1][4] Group 2 - The NAND flash market is seeing rising prices driven by increased capital expenditures from domestic internet companies, with Alibaba investing 38.6 billion yuan in AI and cloud infrastructure in Q2 2025 [2] - The demand for enterprise-level storage applications is expected to grow significantly due to the acceleration of AI applications, with a potential price increase in the storage market anticipated in Q4 2025 [2] - The NOR Flash market is also expected to see price increases in Q4 2025 due to healthy supply-demand dynamics, with double-digit percentage increases likely [4] Group 3 - The niche storage market is experiencing price increases due to structural shortages, with companies like Winbond, Nanya Technology, and Macronix showing consistent revenue growth since 2025 [4] - Customized storage solutions are gaining traction, with companies that have a first-mover advantage likely to benefit from the industry wave [4] Group 4 - Investment recommendations include focusing on niche storage companies such as Zhaoyi Innovation, Puran, and Jucheng, as well as module manufacturers and storage supporting chip companies [5]

Group 1: Semiconductor Storage Industry - The semiconductor storage industry is steadily rising due to the maturation of business models related to generative AI and large language models, along with sustained demand for core hardware, potentially leading to simultaneous price and volume increases [2][5] - Major domestic internet companies are significantly increasing capital expenditures for AI investments, with Alibaba's capital expenditure reaching 38.6 billion yuan in Q2 2025, and Tencent's capital expenditure doubling to 191.07 billion yuan in the same period [5] - The NAND flash market is expected to see a price increase, particularly in enterprise-level and mobile markets, with a projected single-digit percentage increase in enterprise storage prices in Q4 2025 [5] Group 2: DRAM Market - The DRAM market is experiencing significant price increases due to the discontinuation of older process DRAM products, with prices for DDR4 and LPDDR4X expected to rise by 20%-50% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025 [6] - Notable price increases have been reported, with Nanya Technology's contract price rising by 70% in Q3 2025 and expected to increase by another 50% in Q4 2025 [6] Group 3: Agricultural Chemicals - Lier Chemical - Lier Chemical reported a total revenue of 4.507 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.36%, with net profit rising by 191.21% to 271 million yuan [9][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of 59.17% for the first half of the year [9] - The agricultural chemicals sector remains at a low overall market sentiment, but some product prices are beginning to recover, leading to improved performance for Lier Chemical [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the semiconductor storage industry is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [1][34]. Core Insights - The semiconductor storage industry is experiencing steady growth driven by the maturation of business models related to generative AI and large language models, alongside sustained demand for core hardware. This demand is likely to lead to a simultaneous increase in both price and volume [1]. - The NAND market is expected to see a price increase due to rising demand from enterprise-level storage and mobile devices, with projections indicating a modest price rise in Q4 2025 [7][14]. - The DRAM market is anticipated to experience significant price increases, with quarterly growth rates projected between 20% to 50% in Q4 2025, driven by supply constraints and increased demand [15][18]. - The niche storage market is witnessing price increases due to structural shortages, with NOR Flash and niche DRAM products expected to see price adjustments in the coming quarters [20][24]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The semiconductor storage industry is on an upward trajectory, supported by increased capital expenditures from major internet companies focusing on AI and cloud infrastructure [10][13]. - Major players like Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, which is expected to drive demand for storage solutions [10][13]. Market Trends - The NAND flash market is currently facing downward price adjustments but is expected to rebound with a price increase in Q4 2025, particularly in enterprise and mobile sectors [7][14]. - The DRAM market is experiencing a shift due to the discontinuation of older process technologies, leading to substantial price increases for DDR4 and LPDDR4X products [15][18]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies to watch include: - Niche Storage: Zhaoyi Innovation, Puran, Jucheng, Dongxin - Module Manufacturers: Kaipu Cloud, Jiangbo Long, Deming Li, Baiwei Storage, Shannon Chip Creation - Storage Supporting Chips: Lanke Technology, Lianyun Technology [3][28].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Semiconductor, specifically focusing on memory products such as NOR Flash, SLC NAND, and DDR4/DDR5 - **Key Theme**: The impact of AI growth on memory supply and pricing dynamics, particularly in legacy memory segments Key Points and Arguments Memory Pricing Dynamics 1. **NOR Flash Pricing**: Expected ongoing price hikes into 2026 due to supply constraints, with a projected low single-digit percentage undersupply in 1H26 [3][11] 2. **SLC NAND Demand**: Strong demand from cloud AI is leading to a reduction in legacy NAND capacity, potentially creating a double-digit percentage supply shortage [4][16] 3. **DDR4 Outlook**: Improved outlook for DDR4 with a projected 10-15% undersupply in 4Q25-2Q26, driven by a +9% increase in DDR5 pricing due to cloud server rush orders [5][11] Company-Specific Insights 1. **Winbond Electronics Corp**: Price target raised to NT$38 (30% upside) due to stabilized MCU business and pricing upside across DDR/NOR/NAND [6][45] 2. **Macronix International Co Ltd**: Double upgrade to Overweight as a major beneficiary of NOR price hikes, expected to turn profitable in 2026 [6][31] 3. **GigaDevice Semiconductor**: Price target raised due to better pricing outlook for DDR4 and NOR Flash [6] Financial Projections 1. **Macronix Earnings Estimates**: Revised EPS forecasts for 2026-27 show improvements driven by increased wafer ASP estimates for NOR and NAND, with expected NOR wafer ASP improvements of 6%, 30%, and 32% from 2025-27 [19] 2. **Winbond Earnings Estimates**: EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027 raised by 21% and 12% respectively, reflecting positive outlook on specialty DRAM and NOR flash [42] Valuation Methodology 1. **Macronix Valuation**: Price target raised to NT$29 from NT$16.5, using a P/B multiple methodology reflecting expected net profit turnaround [24][28] 2. **Winbond Valuation**: Price target raised to NT$38 from NT$30, with a target multiple of 1.5x 2026e BVPS [45][47] Risks and Considerations 1. **Market Sentiment**: The market has reacted positively to price hikes, but there is uncertainty regarding sustainability into 2026 [17] 2. **Potential Risks**: Unexpected capacity increases or declines in demand could impact pricing and supply/demand dynamics [18] Additional Important Insights - **Investment Drivers**: The memory market is expected to see significant growth due to AI-driven demand, with NOR Flash revenue projected to grow by over 30% in 2025 and 60% in 2026 [33] - **Risk-Reward Analysis**: Macronix and Winbond are positioned favorably with strong pricing power and potential for profitability, but remain subject to market volatility and demand fluctuations [28][47] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics of the semiconductor memory market and the specific outlook for key players in the industry.