机构：中金公司 研究员：白洋/王秋婷/吴维佳/魏萌 预测2Q25 核心OTA收入同比增长13% 交通：根据航班管家的数据，2025 年6 月国内航班量同比增长仅为1%，相比4-5 月3%的同比增速有所 放缓。考虑到商旅需求疲软以及航司价格管控等因素，我们预计公司2Q25 交通收入同增9%，弱于我们 此前预期。考虑到航司价格管控趋势或将持续，公司下调全年交通收入增速指引，我们预计全年交通收 入同比增长10%。 由于公司有效控费，我们上调25 年盈利预测2%至33 亿元，维持26 年盈利预测39 亿元。我们维持跑赢 行业评级和目标价23 港元（对应15x/12x25e和26e Non-IFRS市盈率），上行空间为9%，公司目前交易 于14x/11x25e/26e Non-IFRS P/E。 我们维持2Q核心OTA同增13%判断：住宿和其他业务好于我们预期，但交通收入受行业影响，增速低 于我们此前预期。 风险 酒店：公司预计2Q25 间夜同增高单个位数，符合此前指引，且平台ADR同比低单个位数提升，好于行 业整体表现。此外，受益于用户补贴收敛，以及低基数效应，酒店佣金率同比提升，我们预计2Q25 公 司酒店收入同增 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，由于同程旅行(00780)公司有效控费，该行上调25年盈利预测2% 至33亿元，维持26年盈利预测39亿元。该行维持跑赢行业评级和目标价23港元(对应15x/12x 25e和26e Non-IFRS市盈率)，上行空间为9%，公司目前交易于14x/11x 25e/26e Non-IFRS P/E。2Q25该行预计集团 收入同增10%至46.6亿元;其中，核心OTA收入同增13%至39.9亿元，预期2Q25 Non-IFRS净利润为7.5亿 元。 其他：受酒店管理业务和PMS收入增长驱动，该行预计其他业务收入同比增长24%，此外公司预计下半 年其他业务收入增长有望加速。 有效控费，国际业务全年有望盈亏平衡，上调全年利润指引 受益于核心OTA降本增效，该行预计2Q25公司Non-IFRS净利润7.5亿元。此外，考虑到国际业务下半年 有望逐步释放利润，以及集团高效的费控，公司上调集团全年利润指引至33-34亿元(此前为32-34亿 元)，利润率水平进一步优化。 酒店：公司预计2Q25间夜同增高单个位数，符合此前指引，且平台ADR同比低单个位数提升，好于行 业整体表现。此外，受益于用 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HK$24.00, representing a potential upside of 17.1% from the current price of HK$20.50 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with total revenue of RMB 4.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13%, exceeding both the report's and Bloomberg's expectations by 0.7% and 0.9% respectively. Adjusted net profit reached RMB 788 million, up 41% year-on-year, also surpassing forecasts [1][2]. - The core OTA business revenue was RMB 3.8 billion, accounting for 86.6% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 18.4%, driven by strong performance in transportation ticketing and other services [2]. - The report anticipates stable growth in profits for the full year, with a projected 25% increase in operating profit and an 18% rise in non-GAAP net profit for the core OTA business in 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - Total revenue was RMB 4.4 billion, a 13% increase year-on-year, with adjusted net profit at RMB 788 million, reflecting a 41% growth [1]. - The core OTA business saw revenue of RMB 3.8 billion, up 18.4% year-on-year, driven by growth in transportation ticketing and accommodation services [2]. Q2 2025 Outlook - For Q2 2025, total revenue is expected to reach RMB 4.7 billion, a 10% year-on-year increase, with core OTA revenue projected to grow by 13% [3]. - The report notes that while core OTA revenue growth may slow due to seasonal factors, a recovery is anticipated in the second half of the year [3]. Profitability and Margins - The overall operating margin improved to 18.7% in Q1 2025, up from 11.8% in Q1 2024, with the core OTA business margin expanding to 29.2% [4]. - The report predicts continued expansion of the core OTA's non-GAAP operating margin to 25.5% in Q2 2025, supported by healthy revenue growth and optimized sales and marketing expenses [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been slightly adjusted downwards by 2%, while non-GAAP net profit expectations remain largely unchanged [1][12]. - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of RMB 19.5 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% [10].