on 05-Feb-2026 4 February 2026 Global Memory MEMORY TRACKER (Jan): Parabolic price hike continues Mark Li +852 2123 2645 mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Mark C. Newman +1 212 845 7822 mark.newman@bernsteinsg.com Edward Hou, CFA +852 2123 2623 edward.hou@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA +852 2123 2669 yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com April Li +1 917 344 8339 april.li@bernsteinsg.com Phoebe Sun +1 917 344 8481 phoebe.sun@bernsteinsg.com This monthly tracker (download dataset here) summarizes spot and contract price data relea ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant rebound in the U.S. stock market, particularly in the semiconductor sector, driven by optimistic forecasts for DRAM prices by Goldman Sachs, which predicts a substantial increase in prices for 2026 [1][3][4]. Semiconductor Sector - The U.S. stock market saw a strong performance with major indices rising, particularly the Dow Jones, which increased by over 1%, and the S&P 500 approaching historical highs [1][3]. - Semiconductor stocks experienced a collective surge, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 1.7%. Notable performers included SanDisk, which surged over 15%, and Western Digital, which rose nearly 8% [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that capital moving out of precious metals and cryptocurrencies is seeking new investment opportunities, with the storage chip sector poised to attract this influx of funds due to strong fundamentals [3][4]. DRAM Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its price forecasts for DRAM, predicting a 90%-95% quarter-over-quarter increase in Q1 2026, following a 45%-50% increase in Q4 2025. This outlook exceeds previous market expectations [4]. - In the PC DRAM segment, TrendForce has adjusted its price forecast for Q1 2026 to a 105%-110% increase, surpassing Goldman Sachs' earlier estimate of 80%-90%, indicating potential for further price increases [4]. Economic Indicators - The ISM reported a surprising rise in the U.S. manufacturing PMI for January, jumping from 47.9 to 52.6, indicating expansion and the fastest growth rate since 2022, driven by robust new orders and production [6]. - The new orders index reached 57.1, a significant increase from the previous 47.7, while the production index also showed strong growth, suggesting a rebound in factory activity after a prolonged period of contraction [6]. - Employment index recorded 48.1, indicating a slowdown in job losses within the manufacturing sector, although it remains below the expansion threshold [6].

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market experienced a significant rebound, with all three major indices rising, including a more than 1% increase in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 approaching historical highs [1][10] - Semiconductor stocks surged, particularly in the storage chip sector, with SanDisk rising nearly 17% and Western Digital increasing over 10% [1][11] - Asian markets also opened strongly, with Japan's Nikkei 225 index up over 2% and South Korea's KOSPI index up over 3% [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Sector Insights - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for DRAM prices in Q1 2026, predicting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 90%-95%, significantly higher than previous market expectations [2][11] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.7%, with notable gains in storage chip companies such as SanDisk (up over 15%) and Western Digital (up nearly 8%) [11][12] - Analysts suggest that "hot money" moving out of precious metals and cryptocurrencies is seeking new investment opportunities, with storage chips likely to attract this capital due to strong fundamentals [11] Group 3: DRAM Pricing Predictions - Goldman Sachs' analysts predict a substantial increase in traditional DRAM pricing, with expectations of a 45%-50% increase in Q4 2025, followed by a further 90%-95% increase in Q1 2026 [3][11] - TrendForce has adjusted its forecast for PC DRAM contract prices in Q1 2026 to a quarter-on-quarter increase of 105%-110%, exceeding Goldman Sachs' previous estimate of 80%-90% [12] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The ISM reported that the US manufacturing PMI rose sharply from 47.9 to 52.6 in January, marking the first expansion in nearly a year and the fastest growth rate since 2022 [4][13] - The new orders index reached 57.1, a significant increase from the previous 47.7, indicating robust demand and production growth [5][14] - Employment index recorded at 48.1, above expectations, suggesting a slowdown in job losses within the manufacturing sector [6][14]

TrendForce集邦咨询指出，由于2025年第四季PC整机出货优于预期，目前PC DRAM仍普遍缺货，即便 是确定取得原厂供给的tier-1 PC OEM业者，DRAM库存水平仍有下滑。在卖方市场格局抬升合约价商 谈行情的背景下，预计2026年第一季PC DRAM价格将季增100%以上，涨幅达历史新高。 智通财经APP获悉，周一，存储板块走强，闪迪(SNDK.US)涨超7%，希捷科技(STX.US)涨超5%，西部 数据(WDC.US)涨超4%，美光科技(MU.US)涨超2%。消息面上，根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新存储器产 业调查，2026年第一季AI与数据中心需求持续加剧全球存储器供需失衡，原厂议价能力有增无减， TrendForce集邦咨询据此全面上修第一季DRAM、NAND Flash各产品价格季成长幅度。预估整体 Conventional DRAM合约价将从一月初公布的季增55-60%，改为上涨90-95%，NAND Flash合约价则从 季增33-38%上调至55-60%，并且不排除仍有进一步上修空间。 ...

TrendForce集邦咨询指出，由于2025年第四季PC整机出货优于预期，目前PC DRAM仍普遍缺货，即便 是确定取得原厂供给的tier-1PC OEM业者，DRAM库存水平仍有下滑。在卖方市场格局抬升合约价商谈 行情的背景下，预计2026年第一季PC DRAM价格将季增100%以上，涨幅达历史新高。 周一，存储板块走强，闪迪(SNDK.US)涨超7%，希捷科技(STX.US)涨超5%，西部数据(WDC.US)涨超 4%，美光科技(MU.US)涨超2%。消息面上，根据TrendForce集邦咨询最新存储器产业调查，2026年第 一季AI与数据中心需求持续加剧全球存储器供需失衡，原厂议价能力有增无减，TrendForce集邦咨询据 此全面上修第一季DRAM、NAND Flash各产品价格季成长幅度。预估整体Conventional DRAM合约价将 从一月初公布的季增55-60%，改为上涨90-95%，NAND Flash合约价则从季增33-38%上调至55-60%，并 且不排除仍有进一步上修空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for AI and data centers is intensifying, leading to a significant imbalance in the global memory supply and demand, resulting in increased pricing power for manufacturers [3][4]. Price Adjustments - The price forecast for Conventional DRAM contracts has been revised from a quarterly increase of 55-60% to 90-95%, while NAND Flash contract prices have been adjusted from 33-38% to 55-60% for Q1 2026 [3][4]. - Specific price increases for various DRAM types are as follows: - PC DRAM: Expected to increase by 105-110% [6]. - Server DRAM: Anticipated to rise by 88-93% [6]. - Mobile DRAM (LPDDR4X): Projected to increase by 88-93% [6]. - Total DRAM: Conventional DRAM expected to rise by 90-95% [6]. - Total NAND Flash: Expected to increase by 55-60% [6]. Market Insights - The PC DRAM market is experiencing a supply shortage, with prices expected to rise over 100% in Q1 2026, marking a historical high [8]. - The Server DRAM market is seeing significant price increases, with expectations of a 90% rise due to strong demand from North American and Chinese cloud service providers [8]. - The Mobile DRAM market is also facing a supply-demand gap, leading to anticipated price increases of around 90% for both LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X [9]. NAND Flash Market Dynamics - Despite high demand for NAND Flash, manufacturers are prioritizing DRAM production due to better profit prospects, which is constraining new NAND Flash capacity [9]. - Short-term capacity bottlenecks are expected to persist, limiting the ability to meet demand [9]. Enterprise SSD Demand - The demand for high-performance storage devices is surging, particularly from North American cloud service providers, leading to a forecasted price increase of 53-58% for Enterprise SSDs in Q1 2026, the highest quarterly increase on record [10].

Group 1: DRAM Market Insights - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a significant increase in PC DRAM prices due to tightened supply from manufacturers, despite a slowdown in overall demand for PC units [2] - Server DRAM demand is projected to grow substantially as cloud service providers (CSPs) increase their purchases, with a forecasted price increase of over 60% in the first quarter [3] - Mobile DRAM supply remains tight, leading to strong purchasing power from brands, with expectations of rising contract prices for LPDDR4X and LPDDR5X [3] - Graphics DRAM prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints, despite a conservative demand outlook influenced by NVIDIA's sales target adjustments [3] - Consumer DRAM customers are willing to pay higher prices for prioritized supply in the first quarter, as supply continues to lag behind demand [3] Group 2: NAND Flash Market Insights - The NAND Flash market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by AI applications, with Enterprise SSD demand expected to surpass mobile applications for the first time by 2026 [4] - Client SSD demand is projected to decline in the first quarter due to reduced laptop shipments and capacity downgrades in lower-end models, yet contract prices are expected to increase by at least 40% [4] - The supply of NAND Flash products is tightening as manufacturers prioritize high-margin products, leading to increased prices for Enterprise SSDs [4] - eMMC/UFS demand is showing signs of weakness due to inventory adjustments, although Chromebook shipments are benefiting from government projects [5] - NAND Flash wafer supply is constrained as manufacturers focus on high-margin product lines, resulting in continued price increases despite weak demand in consumer markets [5]

受全球AI算力需求激增及存储芯片价格强劲反弹推动，亚洲主要股市周一集体上涨，日韩股市双双刷新历史高点，芯片巨头的强劲表现成为核心 驱动力。 今日，日韩股市高开高走。韩国市场表现尤为亮眼，韩国首尔综合指数高开1.8%，随后涨幅扩大至2.6%并创下纪录新高。权重股三星电子股价大 涨近5%创历史新高，SK海力士同步走强涨近3%，两大存储巨头的强势表现直接提振了市场情绪。 同时，受芯片和重工业股带动，日经225指数一度上涨2.2%报51442.83点，日本东证指数升至纪录新高。铠侠上涨8.4%，东京电子上涨4.6%，软银 集团上涨3.9%。三菱重工业上涨5.7%，川崎重工业上涨4.8%。 支撑这一轮行情的关键逻辑在于存储芯片价格的剧烈波动。据富国银行最新数据显示，DDR4现货价格周环比上涨约23%，而DDR5上涨1%。更引 人注目的是，第四季度DDR4平均价格环比上涨139%，12月PC DRAM合约价格上涨约8%，服务器DRAM上涨约11%。按美元/Gb计算，富国银行 预计第四季度合同价格环比上涨约65%，同比涨幅高达175%。 此外，台积电宣布2nm制程按计划量产，进一步提振了市场情绪。分析师普遍认为AI热潮将延 ...

Core Insights - Samsung Electronics announced a surprising performance for Q3, confirming a prosperous period for memory semiconductors, with SK Hynix expected to achieve a record 12 trillion KRW in Q3 [1] - SK Hynix maintains high profitability centered around high bandwidth memory (HBM) due to investments in AI infrastructure, with general memory prices rising further boosting its performance [1] - Securities firms have raised their earnings forecasts for SK Hynix ahead of its Q3 earnings announcement, with expectations of record quarterly operating profit [1] Group 1 - SK Hynix's operating profit for Q3 is estimated to reach between 10 to 11 trillion KRW, marking the highest quarterly profit in the company's history [1] - Kiwoom Securities predicts that the price increase for general DRAM and NAND will exceed initial estimates, particularly for PC DRAM, which is expected to rise by 20% to 30% compared to the previous quarter [2] - Samsung Electronics reported Q3 revenue of 86 trillion KRW and operating profit of 12.1 trillion KRW, representing year-on-year growth of 8.7% and 31.8%, respectively, exceeding market expectations by nearly 2 trillion KRW [2] Group 2 - Despite a decline in prices for the fifth-generation HBM (HBM3E) products starting in Q3, SK Hynix is expected to remain profitable due to the transition to the next generation HBM4 and the favorable market conditions from rising general DRAM prices [2] - SK Hynix holds approximately 60% of the global HBM market share as of Q2, with continued growth in HBM shipments for AI servers into Q3 [2] - Analysts predict that SK Hynix's HBM sales will exceed planned figures for Q3, indicating strong demand in the market [2]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that a stable capital market allows investors to earn consistently, which in turn supports the real economy [1] - The capital market plays a crucial role in funding and nurturing emerging industries, exemplified by the active performance of humanoid robots and the semiconductor industry [1][2] - The long-term bull market in the US stock market is driven by technology, with companies like Intel, Apple, and Nvidia converting technological premiums into shareholder returns [1][2] Group 2 - A strong capital market must reflect the direction of economic transformation, with hard technology companies taking on significant roles [2] - The ongoing AI technology revolution is highlighted, with major tech companies investing heavily to stay competitive [2] Group 3 - A-shares showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.01%, while the Shenzhen Component, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech 50 indices rose by 0.67%, 1.58%, and 1.24% respectively [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 23,711 billion, an increase of 443 billion from the previous day [3] Group 4 - The market is expected to consolidate or trend upwards, with a slightly higher probability of an upward trend [4] Group 5 - Small-cap indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 have been lagging, indicating a shift of funds towards mid and large-cap stocks [6] - The strong performance of the ChiNext index is attributed to key themes such as AI hardware, humanoid robots, and innovative drugs [6] Group 6 - CATL's A-share market value briefly surpassed Kweichow Moutai, marking a significant shift towards advanced manufacturing driven by technological innovation [7][8] - This shift signifies the replacement of traditional consumption models by advanced manufacturing as a new engine for value creation in China's economy [8] Group 7 - AI-related sectors such as IT equipment, internet, and communication devices are leading the market [9] - The AI hardware sector is experiencing a rotation, with some segments showing strong performance while others are in consolidation [9][10] Group 8 - The NAND Flash market is expected to see a price increase of 5%-10% in Q4, indicating a positive outlook for the semiconductor industry [11] - The copper sector is experiencing gains due to external factors, including supply disruptions from major mining companies [11] Group 9 - The domestic photolithography machine industry is entering a critical growth phase, with significant advancements in production capabilities [12] - The market is currently in a normal consolidation phase, with a focus on the performance of the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices [12]