Report Information - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: April 1, 2026 - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Methanol Price Information - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained stable at 801. The price of江苏现货 decreased from 3045 to 3365, with a daily change of -150 on March 31. The price of华南现货 decreased from 3140 to 3375, with a daily change of -113 on March 31. The price of鲁南折盘面 increased from 3010 to 3195, with a daily change of -3 on March 31. The price of西南折盘面 remained stable at 2450. The price of河北折盘面 increased from 2985 to 3135, with a daily change of 150 on March 31. The price of西北折盘面 decreased from 2963 to 3245, with a daily change of -20 on March 31. The price of CFR中国 remained stable at 379, and the price of CFR东南亚 remained stable at 590. The进口利润 remained stable at -56, and the主力基差 increased from 40 to 120, with a daily change of -15 on March 31. The盘面MTO利润 remained stable at -1106 [2] Plastic Price Information - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price of东北亚乙烯 remained stable at 1400 on March 25 - 27 and increased to 1450 on March 30 - 31. The price of华北LL remained stable at 8550 on March 30 - 31. The price of华东LL decreased from 8850 to 8775, with a daily change of -200 on March 31. The price of华东LD increased from 10800 to 11150, with a daily change of 250 on March 31. The price of华东HD remained stable at 9250 on March 30 - 31. The price of LL美金 remained stable at 1125, and the price of LL美湾 remained stable at 1381 on March 25 - 27 and increased to 1403 on March 30 - 31. The进口利润 increased from -609 to -504, and the主力期货 decreased from 8715 to 8614, with a daily change of -190 on March 31. The基差 increased from -250 to -270, with a daily change of 30 on March 31. The两油库存 remained stable at 77, and the仓单 decreased from 4652 to 0, with a daily change of -2211 on March 31 [13] Propylene and PP Price Information - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price of山东丙烯 decreased from 8970 to 8700, with a daily change of -40 on March 31. The price of东北亚丙烯 remained stable at 1250 on March 27 - 31. The price of华东PP decreased from 9450 to 9005, with a daily change of -445 on March 31. The price of华北PP decreased from 9313 to 9150, with a daily change of -163 on March 31. The price of山东粉料 decreased from 9130 to 8930, with a daily change of -200 on March 31. The price of华东共聚 decreased from 9410 to 9330, with a daily change of -80 on March 31. The price of PP美金 remained stable at 1245, and the price of PP美湾 remained stable at 1500. The出口利润 remained stable at 88, and the主力期货 decreased from 9269 to 9103, with a daily change of -166 on March 31. The基差 increased from -150 to -120, with a daily change of 30 on March 31. The两油库存 remained stable at 77, and the仓单 decreased from 1644 to 0, with a daily change of -1644 on March 31 [20] PVC Price Information - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price of西北电石 remained stable at 2750. The price of山东烧碱 remained stable at 757 on March 27 - 31. The price of电石法 - 华东 decreased from 5520 to 5280, with a daily change of -190 on March 31. The price of乙烯法 - 华东 remained stable at 5500. The price of电石法 - 华南 remained stable at 5450. The price of电石法 - 西北 decreased from 5450 to 5230, with a daily change of -20 on March 31. The进口美金价 (CFR中国) remained stable at 1060, and the出口利润 remained stable at 2110. The西北综合利润 remained stable at 356, and the华北综合利润 remained stable at -244. The基差 (高端交割品) decreased from -170 to -180, with a daily change of -10 on March 31 [21][22]

Report Information - Report Name: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Date: March 27, 2026 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Methanol - **Price Data**: From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The江苏现货 price increased from 3085 to 3265, the华南现货 price from 3090 to 3295, the鲁南折盘面 price from 2880 to 3025, the西北折盘面 price from 2915 to 3020. The日度变化 of江苏 and华南 spot prices were 220 and 155 respectively, and the鲁南折盘面 price increased by 15 [2]. - **Profit Data**: The进口利润 remained unchanged, the主力基差 increased by 40, and the盘面MTO利润 remained at -1106 [2]. Plastic - **Price Data**: From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the东北亚乙烯 price remained at 1400 on March 25 and 26. The华北LL price decreased from 8600 to 8540, the华东LL price from 8650 to 8750, the华东LD price from 10600 to 11000, and the华东HD price from 8700 to 8950. The日度变化 of华北LL and华东LL were -35 and -100 respectively, and the华东LD price increased by 200 [5]. - **Profit and Inventory Data**: The进口利润 remained unchanged, the主力期货 price increased by 52, the基差 decreased by 50, the两油库存 remained at 83, and the仓单 remained at 4652 [5]. PP - **Price Data**: From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the东北亚丙烯 price decreased from 9000 to 8800, the山东丙烯 price remained at 1230 on March 25 and 26, the华东PP price increased from 8615 to 8950, the华北PP price from 8700 to 8975, and the山东粉料 price from 8760 to 8830. The日度变化 of东北亚丙烯 was -170, and the华东PP and华北PP prices increased by 335 and 275 respectively [10]. - **Profit and Inventory Data**: The出口利润 remained unchanged, the主力期货 price increased by 145, the基差 remained at -150, the两油库存 decreased by 280, and the仓单 remained at 26 [10]. PVC - **Price Data**: From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the西北电石 price remained at 2750 on March 25 and 26, the山东烧碱 price remained at 742, the电石法 - 华东 price decreased from 5820 to 5510, and the电石法 - 西北 price decreased from 5600 to 5350. The日度变化 of电石法 - 华东 and电石法 - 西北 were -10 and -100 respectively [10][11]. - **Profit Data**: The西北综合利润 and华北综合利润 remained at 356 and -244 respectively, and the基差 (高端交割品) remained at -170 [10][11].

Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: March 23, 2026 [1] Methanol Price Data - On March 20, 2026, the prices of methanol in different regions were as follows: Jiangsu spot was 3085, South China spot was 3090, Lunan folded to the market was 2880, Southwest folded to the market was 2450, Hebei folded to the market was 2700, and Northwest folded to the market was 2915. The CFR China was 382, and the CFR Southeast Asia was 550. The import profit was -88, the main contract basis was 10, and the MTO profit on the disk was -1106 [2]. Daily Changes - From March 19 to 20, 2026, the daily changes were as follows: the price of动力煤期货 remained unchanged, the Jiangsu spot decreased by 60, the South China spot decreased by 95, the Lunan folded to the market decreased by 10, the Southwest folded to the market remained unchanged, the Hebei folded to the market remained unchanged, the Northwest folded to the market decreased by 8, the CFR China decreased by 29, the CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged, the import profit increased by 134, the main contract basis increased by 47, and the MTO profit on the disk remained unchanged [2]. Plastic Price Data - On March 20, 2026, the prices of plastic in different regions were as follows: Northeast Asia ethylene was 1350, North China LL was 8600, East China LL was 8650, East China LD was 10600, East China HD was 8700, LL in US dollars was 1125, and LL in US Gulf was 1293. The import profit was -649, the main contract futures price was 8818, the basis was -50, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina was 81, and the warehouse receipts were 6401 [10]. Daily Changes - From March 19 to 20, 2026, the daily changes were as follows: the price of Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, the North China LL decreased by 50, the East China LL decreased by 150, the East China LD remained unchanged, the East China HD decreased by 100, the LL in US dollars remained unchanged, the LL in US Gulf remained unchanged, the import profit remained unchanged, the main contract futures price decreased by 98, the basis remained unchanged, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 3, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 680 [10]. Propylene and PP Price Data - On March 20, 2026, the prices of propylene and PP in different regions were as follows: Shandong propylene was 8550, Northeast Asia propylene was 1110, East China PP was 9035, North China PP was 8700, Shandong powder was 8450, East China copolymerized PP was 8920, PP in US dollars was 1215, and PP in US Gulf was 1325. The export profit was 137, the main contract futures price was 9019, the basis was 150, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina was 81, and the warehouse receipts were 16051 [17]. Daily Changes - From March 19 to 20, 2026, the daily changes were as follows: the price of Shandong propylene increased by 50, the Northeast Asia propylene remained unchanged, the East China PP decreased by 295, the North China PP decreased by 158, the Shandong powder decreased by 160, the East China copolymerized PP decreased by 80, the PP in US dollars remained unchanged, the PP in US Gulf remained unchanged, the export profit remained unchanged, the main contract futures price decreased by 139, the basis remained unchanged, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 3, and the warehouse receipts increased by 341 [17]. PVC Price Data - On March 20, 2026, the prices of PVC in different regions were as follows: Northwest calcium carbide was 2650, Shandong caustic soda was 702, calcium carbide method in East China was 5730, ethylene method in East China was 5500, calcium carbide method in South China was 5450, calcium carbide method in North China was 5450, the import price in US dollars (CFR China) was 1050, the export profit was 2011, the comprehensive profit in Northwest was 356, the comprehensive profit in North China was -244, and the basis (high - end delivery product) was -30 [18][19]. Daily Changes - From March 19 to 20, 2026, there were no daily changes in the prices and profits of PVC [19].

Group 1: Methanol - Daily data from March 4 - 10, 2026 includes prices of动力煤期货, various regional spot prices, CFR prices, import profit, main contract basis, and MTO profit. For example, on March 4, 2026, the动力煤期货 price was 801, and the Jiangsu spot price was 2465 [2] - The daily changes show that动力煤期货 remained unchanged, while prices of other items had different degrees of change, such as a -285 change in Jiangsu spot price [2] Group 2: Plastic - Daily data from March 4 - 10, 2026 includes prices of Northeast Asia ethylene, various regional LL, LD, HD prices, LL in US dollars, LL in US Gulf, import profit, main contract futures, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts. For example, on March 4, 2026, the Northeast Asia ethylene price was 800, and the North China LL price was 7230 [13] - The daily changes show that Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, while prices of other items had different degrees of change, such as a -1700 change in East China LL price [13] Group 3: PP - Daily data from March 4 - 10, 2026 includes prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, various regional PP prices, PP in US dollars, PP in US Gulf, export profit, main contract futures, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts. For example, on March 4, 2026, the Shandong propylene price was 6980, and the East China PP price was 7125 [20] - The daily changes show that Shandong propylene decreased by 700, Northeast Asia propylene decreased by 10, and other prices also had different degrees of change [20] Group 4: PVC - Daily data from March 4 - 10, 2026 includes prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, various regional PVC prices, import US dollar price (CFR China), export profit, Northwest comprehensive profit, North China comprehensive profit, and basis. For example, on March 4, 2026, the Northwest calcium carbide price was 2100, and the Shandong caustic soda price was 657 [21] - The daily changes show that the Northwest calcium carbide price increased by 150, and the East China PVC price decreased by 660 [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PVC, the V basis is -330, a week-on-week increase of 10. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price of ethylene method is 575, and that of calcium carbide method is 570, and the sustainability needs further observation. Coal price is 600 with no change, and semi-coke price is 820 with no change. Semi-coke profit is poor, and calcium carbide profit is also poor. The ex-factory price of Shandong spot is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of purchased calcium carbide chlor-alkali is around -600. Ethylene and calcium carbide prices are stable. Upstream prices are stable this week, with an operating rate of 79.7%, a week-on-week increase of 1.1%. This week, the operating rate of calcium carbide method is 79.7%, a week-on-week increase of 1.3%, and that of ethylene method is 79.6%, a week-on-week increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. Upstream factory inventory is 30.9, a week-on-week increase of 0.4w, PVC social inventory is 111.4w, a week-on-week increase of 5w, 106 in East China with a week-on-week increase of 5w, and 5.4 tons in South China with no week-on-week change. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and exports are flat week-on-week. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, seasonal production resumes. Pay attention to downstream restocking. Overall, export volume is relatively large this year. Observe the sustainability of subsequent exports. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets is still weak. Comprehensively, in the medium and long term, the expected pattern of PVC is still poor [20] Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol and Polyolefin - Methanol data includes Hebei discount price, Northwest discount price, CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia, import profit, main contract basis, and MTO profit on the futures market. For example, on March 6, 2026, the Hebei discount price is 801, the Northwest discount price is 2165, etc. There are also daily changes in these data, such as a 50 increase in the Northwest discount price [1][2] Plastic - Data includes Northeast Asia ethylene, North China LL, East China LL, East China LD, East China HD, LL in US dollars, LL in US Gulf, import profit, main futures, basis, two major oil inventories, and warehouse receipts. For example, on February 27, 2026, Northeast Asia ethylene is 710, North China LL is 6430, etc. There are also daily changes, such as a 70 increase in North China LL [12] PVC - Data includes Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, calcium carbide method in East China, ethylene method in East China, calcium carbide method in South China, calcium carbide method in Northwest, import US dollar price (CFR China), export profit, Northwest comprehensive profit, North China comprehensive profit, and basis (high-end delivery product). For example, on February 27, 2026, Northwest calcium carbide is 2250, Shandong caustic soda is 657, etc. There are also daily changes, such as a 150 increase in the calcium carbide method in East China [18][19][20]

Group 1: Methanol - The report provides daily data from February 24 to March 2, 2026, including power coal futures, spot prices in different regions, CFR prices, import profit, main contract basis, and MTO profit [2] - The daily changes on March 2, 2026, show that power coal futures remained unchanged, while most spot prices increased, with the largest increase of 163 in some regions [2] Group 2: Plastic - It presents daily data from February 24 to March 2, 2026, including Northeast Asian ethylene, prices of different types of plastics in various regions, import profit, main contract futures, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts [11] - On March 2, 2026, the daily changes indicate that most prices increased, with the largest increase of 370 in Northeast LL price, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 85 [11] Group 3: PVC - The report offers daily data from February 24 to March 2, 2026, on Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, prices of different production methods in different regions, import US dollar price, export profit, comprehensive profits in Northwest and North China, and basis [19] - The daily changes on March 2, 2026, show a decrease of 50 in Northwest calcium carbide price and an increase of 50 in East China calcium - carbide method price [19][20] - The V basis is - 330, a week - on - week increase of 10. This week's trading volume is average. The upstream is stable this week with an operating rate of 79.7%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1%. The calcium - carbide method operating rate is 79.7%, a week - on - week increase of 1.3%, and the ethylene method is 79.6%, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. The upstream factory inventory is 30.9 (in ten thousand units), a week - on - week increase of 0.4, and the PVC social inventory is 111.4 (in ten thousand units), a week - on - week increase of 5. The overall inventory level is still moderately high, and exports are flat week - on - week. Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low, with short - term seasonal operating rate recovery. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking. Overall, this year's export volume is relatively large, and the subsequent export sustainability should be observed. In the long - term, the new construction demand in the domestic and foreign real estate markets is still weak. In the medium - to - long - term, the expected pattern of PVC is still poor [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report Core Views - **Methanol**: With the ongoing conflict in Iran, MTO shows resistance. Some plants like Xingxing and Shenghong have stopped production, and Luxi will stop next week. Methanol is difficult to move up or down as MTO profit caps the upside. Unless other downstream products increase in price, it is currently more appropriate to be bearish or sell call options [2] - **Plastic**: The futures market fluctuates, while spot prices remain stable with a weak basis. Oil - and coal - based profits deteriorate. Upstream coal - chemical industries and Sinopec/CNPC reduce inventories, but social inventories increase this week. The supply of standard products is growing fast, and the expected supply - demand pressure on LL in the 05 contract remains high [3] - **PP**: The futures market remains stable with a weak basis. Import and export profits are negative, and export volume declines slightly. Upstream oil - based profits are stable, and PDH comprehensive profit improves. Downstream profits of BOPP and plastic weaving improve. Temporary maintenance plans increase, and overall inventory is neutral. The supply - demand pressure in the 05 contract and subsequent periods is slightly high [4] - **PVC**: The basis of V increases by 10. This week's trading volume is average. Coal and semi - coke prices remain unchanged, and the profits of semi - coke and calcium carbide are poor. Upstream开工率 increases slightly, and downstream demand is stable. Total inventory is still relatively high, and export volume remains flat. The comprehensive profit of PVC is low in the short term, and long - term demand from the real estate industry is weak, so the overall outlook is poor [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price Data**: From February 1 to February 25, 2026, prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional prices show certain fluctuations, with a daily change of - 6 for Jiangsu spot and - 22 for South China spot [2] - **Market Situation**: The conflict in Iran affects the market. MTO profit restricts the upward movement of methanol prices [2] Plastic - **Price Data**: From February 1 to February 25, 2026, prices of Northeast Asia ethylene, North China LL, and other products change. The daily change of North China LL is - 30, and that of East China LD is + 75 [3] - **Market Situation**: The futures market fluctuates, and the basis is weak. The supply of standard products grows fast, and social inventories increase [3] PP - **Price Data**: From February 1 to February 25, 2026, prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, and other products change. The daily change of East China PP is + 40, and that of North China PP is + 47 [4] - **Market Situation**: The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. Import and export profits are negative, and downstream profits improve [4] PVC - **Price Data**: From February 1 to February 25, 2026, prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, and other products change. The daily change of Northwest calcium carbide is - 50, and that of Shandong caustic soda is + 5 [5][6] - **Market Situation**: The basis of V increases. Upstream开工率 increases slightly, and downstream demand is stable. Total inventory is relatively high [6]

Group 1: Methanol - The domestic methanol market has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of significant inventory reduction. However, the high MTO operating rate is a prerequisite for significant inventory reduction. Currently, MTO profits are average, which suppresses the upside potential of methanol. [2] - Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Additionally, the change in oil prices should be monitored. The limited upside of methanol is due to the poor performance of other downstream sectors. If oil prices drive up other products, it may open up the upside potential. [2] Group 2: Plastics - The futures market is oscillating, while the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. The L01 basis in North China is -180, a decrease of 40 compared to the previous period; in East China, it is -100, a decrease of 30. The regional price difference in North China is oscillating, with the North China - East China price difference at -80, a decrease of 30, and the South China - East China price difference at 50, an increase of 50. [4] - Crude oil prices are oscillating. Oil - based production profits are deteriorating, and coal - based production profits are also deteriorating. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 745, the theoretical LL import price is 63, the HD - LLD price difference is 110, a decrease of 40, and the LD - LL price difference is 2210, an increase of 210. [4] - Upstream coal chemical industry is reducing inventory, and Sinopec and PetroChina are also reducing inventory. Social inventory has increased this week. HD inventory is at a low level, LD inventory has increased, and LL inventory is slightly higher than the neutral level year - on - year. [4] - From the supply side, the supply growth rate of standard products is high. The linear production schedule has increased month - on - month, and there are few maintenance plans in January. The full - density production has recovered. Looking at the balance sheet, the overall PE supply growth rate for the 05 contract is neutral, and the supply - demand balance sheet for LL still faces significant pressure. [4] Group 3: PP - The futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. The East China basis is -200, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous period. The import profit is -334, and the export profit is -225. The export volume has decreased slightly month - on - month. [6] - In the domestic regional price difference, the North China - East China price difference is -70, an increase of 35, and the South China - East China price difference is 100, a decrease of 30. [6] - In terms of upstream profits, oil - based production profits are stable. The comprehensive PDH profit is -970, an increase of 230 compared to the previous period, and the PHD operating rate has remained stable this week. Downstream BOPP and plastic weaving profits have improved. [6] - On the supply side, the number of temporary maintenance plans has increased, and the supply in January is flat compared to the previous month. Downstream buyers have replenished inventory at low prices for the holiday. Sinopec and PetroChina are reducing inventory, while the coal chemical industry and social inventory are increasing. Currently, the overall PP inventory is at a neutral level. Looking at the balance sheet, the supply pressure for the 05 contract and subsequent periods is slightly higher than neutral. PDH maintenance or continuous exports are needed to improve the situation. [6] Group 4: PVC - The V basis is -330, an increase of 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The FOB price for the ethylene method is 575, and for the calcium carbide method is 570. The sustainability needs further observation. [8] - Coal prices are 600, unchanged from the previous period, and semi - coke prices are 820, also unchanged. Semi - coke profits are poor, and calcium carbide profits are also poor. The Shandong spot ex - factory price is 4560, and the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry with purchased calcium carbide is around -600. The calcium carbide - ethylene price is stable. [8] - Upstream production has remained stable this week, with an operating rate of 79.7%, an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous period. This week, the operating rate of the calcium carbide method is 79.7%, an increase of 1.3%, and that of the ethylene method is 79.6%, an increase of 0.3%. Downstream demand is stable. [8] - Upstream factory inventory is 309,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period. PVC social inventory is 1.114 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons compared to the previous period. Inventory in East China is 1.06 million tons, an increase of 50,000 tons, and in South China is 54,000 tons, unchanged. The overall inventory level is still slightly higher than neutral, and exports are flat compared to the previous period. [8] - Currently, the comprehensive profit of PVC is low. In the short term, seasonal production has recovered. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment. Overall, export volume this year is relatively high. The sustainability of subsequent exports needs to be observed. In the long term, the new construction demand in the domestic and international real estate markets remains weak. Comprehensively, the medium - and long - term outlook for PVC is still poor. [8]