Report Information - Report Name: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Date: March 27, 2026 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Methanol - **Price Data**: From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The江苏现货 price increased from 3085 to 3265, the华南现货 price from 3090 to 3295, the鲁南折盘面 price from 2880 to 3025, the西北折盘面 price from 2915 to 3020. The日度变化 of江苏 and华南 spot prices were 220 and 155 respectively, and the鲁南折盘面 price increased by 15 [2]. - **Profit Data**: The进口利润 remained unchanged, the主力基差 increased by 40, and the盘面MTO利润 remained at -1106 [2]. Plastic - **Price Data**: From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the东北亚乙烯 price remained at 1400 on March 25 and 26. The华北LL price decreased from 8600 to 8540, the华东LL price from 8650 to 8750, the华东LD price from 10600 to 11000, and the华东HD price from 8700 to 8950. The日度变化 of华北LL and华东LL were -35 and -100 respectively, and the华东LD price increased by 200 [5]. - **Profit and Inventory Data**: The进口利润 remained unchanged, the主力期货 price increased by 52, the基差 decreased by 50, the两油库存 remained at 83, and the仓单 remained at 4652 [5]. PP - **Price Data**: From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the东北亚丙烯 price decreased from 9000 to 8800, the山东丙烯 price remained at 1230 on March 25 and 26, the华东PP price increased from 8615 to 8950, the华北PP price from 8700 to 8975, and the山东粉料 price from 8760 to 8830. The日度变化 of东北亚丙烯 was -170, and the华东PP and华北PP prices increased by 335 and 275 respectively [10]. - **Profit and Inventory Data**: The出口利润 remained unchanged, the主力期货 price increased by 145, the基差 remained at -150, the两油库存 decreased by 280, and the仓单 remained at 26 [10]. PVC - **Price Data**: From March 20 to March 26, 2026, the西北电石 price remained at 2750 on March 25 and 26, the山东烧碱 price remained at 742, the电石法 - 华东 price decreased from 5820 to 5510, and the电石法 - 西北 price decreased from 5600 to 5350. The日度变化 of电石法 - 华东 and电石法 - 西北 were -10 and -100 respectively [10][11]. - **Profit Data**: The西北综合利润 and华北综合利润 remained at 356 and -244 respectively, and the基差 (高端交割品) remained at -170 [10][11].

Report Information - Report Name: Methanol Polyolefin Morning Report [1] - Date: March 17, 2026 [1] - Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [1] Methanol - On March 16, 2026, the prices were as follows:动力煤期货 801, Jiangsu spot 2850, South China spot 2855, Lunan discounted to the market 2750, Southwest discounted to the market 2450, Hebei discounted to the market 2600, Northwest discounted to the market 2795, CFR China 381, CFR Southeast Asia 510, import profit -339, main contract basis 25, and on - disk MTO profit -1106 [2] - The daily changes on March 16 compared to the previous day were:动力煤期货 0, Jiangsu spot 25, South China spot 5, Lunan discounted to the market 0, Southwest discounted to the market 0, Hebei discounted to the market 0, Northwest discounted to the market 35, CFR China 0, CFR Southeast Asia 0, import profit 0, main contract basis 0, and on - disk MTO profit 0 [2] Plastic - On March 16, 2026, the prices were as follows: Northeast Asia ethylene 1150, North China LL 8480, East China LL 8775, East China LD 10550, East China HD 8900, LL in US dollars 1095, LL in US Gulf 1127, import profit -743, main futures 8416, basis -50, two - oil inventory 82, and warehouse receipts 7851 [4] - The daily changes on March 16 compared to the previous day were: Northeast Asia ethylene 0, North China LL 330, East China LL 300, East China LD 25, East China HD 350, LL in US dollars 0, LL in US Gulf 0, import profit 0, main futures 0, basis 0, two - oil inventory 0, and warehouse receipts -50 [4] PP - On March 16, 2026, the prices were as follows: Shandong propylene 8000, Northeast Asia propylene 1110, East China PP 9130, North China PP 8695, Shandong powder 8610, East China co - polymer 8924, PP in US dollars 1185, PP in US Gulf 1270, export profit 35, main futures 8603, basis 150, two - oil inventory 82, and warehouse receipts 19427 [10] - The daily changes on March 16 compared to the previous day were: Shandong propylene 0, Northeast Asia propylene 0, East China PP 280, North China PP 190, Shandong powder 180, East China co - polymer 184, PP in US dollars 0, PP in US Gulf 0, export profit 0, main futures 0, basis 0, two - oil inventory 0, and warehouse receipts 0 [10] PVC - On March 16, 2026, the prices were as follows: Northwest calcium carbide 2550, Shandong caustic soda 702, calcium carbide method - East China 5750, ethylene method - East China 5500, calcium carbide method - South China 5450, calcium carbide method - Northwest 5550, import price in US dollars (CFR China) 840, export profit 537, Northwest comprehensive profit 356, North China comprehensive profit -244, and basis (high - end delivery product) -30 [11] - The daily changes on March 16 compared to the previous day were: Northwest calcium carbide 0, Shandong caustic soda 5, calcium carbide method - East China 100, ethylene method - East China 0, calcium carbide method - South China 0, calcium carbide method - Northwest 250, import price in US dollars (CFR China) 0, export profit 0, Northwest comprehensive profit 0, North China comprehensive profit 0, and basis (high - end delivery product) 0 [11]

Group 1: Methanol - Daily data from March 4 - 10, 2026 includes prices of动力煤期货, various regional spot prices, CFR prices, import profit, main contract basis, and MTO profit. For example, on March 4, 2026, the动力煤期货 price was 801, and the Jiangsu spot price was 2465 [2] - The daily changes show that动力煤期货 remained unchanged, while prices of other items had different degrees of change, such as a -285 change in Jiangsu spot price [2] Group 2: Plastic - Daily data from March 4 - 10, 2026 includes prices of Northeast Asia ethylene, various regional LL, LD, HD prices, LL in US dollars, LL in US Gulf, import profit, main contract futures, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts. For example, on March 4, 2026, the Northeast Asia ethylene price was 800, and the North China LL price was 7230 [13] - The daily changes show that Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged, while prices of other items had different degrees of change, such as a -1700 change in East China LL price [13] Group 3: PP - Daily data from March 4 - 10, 2026 includes prices of Shandong propylene, Northeast Asia propylene, various regional PP prices, PP in US dollars, PP in US Gulf, export profit, main contract futures, basis, two - oil inventories, and warehouse receipts. For example, on March 4, 2026, the Shandong propylene price was 6980, and the East China PP price was 7125 [20] - The daily changes show that Shandong propylene decreased by 700, Northeast Asia propylene decreased by 10, and other prices also had different degrees of change [20] Group 4: PVC - Daily data from March 4 - 10, 2026 includes prices of Northwest calcium carbide, Shandong caustic soda, various regional PVC prices, import US dollar price (CFR China), export profit, Northwest comprehensive profit, North China comprehensive profit, and basis. For example, on March 4, 2026, the Northwest calcium carbide price was 2100, and the Shandong caustic soda price was 657 [21] - The daily changes show that the Northwest calcium carbide price increased by 150, and the East China PVC price decreased by 660 [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 28, the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction was fast, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Driven by low valuation, cold weather and the geopolitical situation in Iran, the sentiment of the chemical sector improved, and plastics followed the market sentiment to fluctuate strongly in the short term. However, the improvement of the plastics supply - demand pattern was limited, the spot follow - up was limited, the basis weakened, and the sustainability of the plastics rebound should be treated with caution. Due to the new production capacity of plastics put into operation recently, the operating rate was higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film had not started yet, so the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - On January 28, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the overall still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory reduction was fast, and the inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Cold weather increased diesel heating demand, and the geopolitical situation in Iran led to a rise in crude oil prices. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The concentrated demand for mulch film had not started, and the downstream operating rate was expected to decline. Plastics followed the market sentiment to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6885 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6992 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6967 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.31%. The position increased by 10434 lots to 531194 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6820 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6850 - 8190 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On January 28, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film was basically stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [1][4]. - **Inventory**: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 450,000 tons, 110,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction was fast, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $67 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $700 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $685 per ton [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - After the restart of previously overhauled devices, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber is expected to increase in the short term, and the inventories of both production and trading enterprises are expected to rise slightly [2]. - The cost of cis - butadiene rubber is slightly stronger, but the high - premium offers have difficulty attracting buyers, and the private price - holding strategy also has limited support from the market. The inventory of sample production enterprises has increased, while that of sample trading enterprises has changed slightly [2]. - Last week, tire enterprises had insufficient orders, with some arranging overhauls and others reducing production, which dragged down the capacity utilization rate. As the production of overhauled enterprises gradually recovers, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may show a restorative increase this week, but the overall demand growth is limited, and enterprise production control will restrict the increase [2]. - The br2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,550 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 10,395 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10; the position volume of the main contract is 70,323 yuan/ton, up 2,076 [2]. - The 1 - 2 spread of synthetic rubber is 20 yuan/ton, down 10; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 2,960 tons, down 20 [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in various regions has decreased, with a range of 100 - 150 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber is 105 yuan/ton, down 10 [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil is 62.56 dollars/barrel, down 0.82; WTI crude oil is 58.06 dollars/barrel, down 0.94. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 730 dollars/ton, with no change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 573.13 dollars/ton, up 0.13; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 770 dollars/ton, with no change. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 7,350 yuan/ton, down 190 [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.94 million tons/week, up 0.38; the capacity utilization rate is 72.53%, down 0.49 [2]. - The port inventory of butadiene is 39,800 tons, up 10,800; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.26%, up 1.01 [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.76 million tons, up 0.72; the capacity utilization rate is 72.64%, up 2.72 [2]. - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 284 yuan/ton, down 352; the social inventory is 3.15 million tons, up 0.07; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,630 tons, up 780; the trader's inventory is 4,880 tons, down 90 [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 70.05%, down 3.63; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 62.25%, down 2.25 [2]. - The monthly output of full - steel tires is 1,242 million pieces, down 72; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 5,168 million pieces, down 857 [2]. - The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 40.24 days, up 0.69; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.86 days, up 0.5 [2]. Industry News - As of November 20, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.36%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.40 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.04%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.56 percentage points [2]. - In October 2025, the domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.76 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.72 million tons, or 5.52%, and a year - on - year increase of 24.07%. The capacity utilization rate was 71.39%, an increase of 1.46 percentage points from the previous period and 10.93 percentage points from the same period last year [2]. - As of November 19, the domestic inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.15 million tons, an increase of 0.70 million tons from the previous period, or 2.24% [2].

报告行业投资评级 - Not mentioned 报告的核心观点 - Cost increase and the Double Eleven peak season drive the plastic price to rebound, but under the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, it is expected that plastic will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 行情分析 - On November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1] - As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1] - Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and the crude oil price rebounds after a decline. However, OPEC has adjusted the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become a consensus, so the increase in crude oil price is limited [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year has started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a capacity of 800,000 tons per year has recently been put into production. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased [1] - The agricultural film is in the peak season, and orders are gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable, the demand in the north begins to decrease, the downstream operating rate drops, and the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient [1] - Traders are cautious about the future market, generally reducing prices and actively shipping. There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] 期现行情 期货方面 - The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,824 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,853 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.91%. The position volume decreased by 40,847 lots to 540,755 lots [2] 现货方面 - The PE spot market partially rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 80 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,980 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons compared with the previous week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton compared with the previous week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton compared with the previous week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The plastic industry is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although the cost increase and macro - warming have pushed the plastic price to rebound, the plastic itself lacks upward momentum. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and the current peak season is not as good as expected, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices such as Lianyungang Petrochemical's HDPE Phase I increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level, and the destocking has accelerated slightly at the end of the month. The cost of crude oil is oscillating. New production capacities have been put into trial operation or production. Although the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase, the current peak season is not satisfactory, and the downstream purchasing willingness is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.41% to close at 6899 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 15,690 lots to 524,390 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price range from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6890 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9050 - 9880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7160 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of October 31, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat at $755/ton and $765/ton respectively [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The production of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased due to the restart of some devices and the increase in the load of private enterprises. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the pressure on spot sales remains. The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises is expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, the operation of semi - steel tire enterprises is generally stable, but some enterprises' maintenance has affected the overall capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire enterprises continue the previous production - control state, and some enterprises' maintenance plans at the beginning of this month may still affect the short - term capacity utilization rate. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11670 - 12200 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 33170, down 2323; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2670 tons, up 180 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions remains unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 50 yuan/ton, and the other basis is 130 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 68.12 dollars/barrel, down 0.5 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 64.01 dollars/barrel, down 0.59 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 597.38 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 840 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1095 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9550 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, down 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 67.91%, down 0.24 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 24000 tons, down 3300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 49.57%, up 0.44 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 12.92 million tons, up 0.67 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 75.85%, up 6.7 percentage points; the production profit is - 478 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 3.17 million tons, up 0.11 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25100 tons, up 1900 tons; the trader's inventory is 6620 tons, down 790 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.77%, down 0.36 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic full - steel tires is 63.84%, down 0.92 percentage points; the monthly output of full - steel tires is 12750000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56970000 pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong is 39.22 days, down 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.14 days, down 0.91 days [2]. Industry News - As of August 28, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 3.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points. In August 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China is 13.57 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2].

Report Overview - Report Date: 2025-05-07 - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the domestic raw material supply is abundant, prices are weakening, and cost support is insufficient. The overall inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has decreased slightly. Under the expectation of increased supply, the trading focus of the spot market is under pressure, with a decrease in production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory. The inventory level is at the mid - year position, and it is expected that the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises will increase in the short term. In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. This is mainly because some enterprises gradually entered the maintenance or load - reduction operation stage due to the holiday, dragging down the enterprise capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The short - term trading range for the br2506 contract is recommended to be between 11,000 and 11,800 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract is 11,375 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 25,104, with a week - on - week decrease of 639. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 7,470 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 190 tons [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,550 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,600 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,650 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 275 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 62.15 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.92 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is at 59.09 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.96 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 790 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 554.75 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1000 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9175 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.86%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 36,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.5%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 12.83 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 67.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.41 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 136 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 515 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 million tons [2]. 3.1.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly ending inventory of butadiene rubber in manufacturers is 26,850 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1790 tons; the weekly ending inventory of butadiene rubber in traders is 5100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1490 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.43%, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.68 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 56.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.22 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11.56 million pieces. The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 43.08 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35 days; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.91 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of April 30, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with the previous period (April 23, 2025), a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. During this period, approaching the Labor Day holiday, some downstream enterprises made appropriate stockpiling of raw materials. The continuous increase of raw material butadiene has slightly alleviated the market's bearish sentiment, but under the influence of the expected increase in supply, the trading focus of the spot market is under pressure. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises has increased. As of April 30, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.74 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].