合成橡胶产业日报 2025-11-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10395 | 10 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 70323 | 2076 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) | 20 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2960 | -20 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 10450 | -150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10450 | -100 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 10450 | 东(日,元/吨) -150 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 10650 | -100 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 105 | 东(日,元/吨) -10 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 东 ...

报告行业投资评级 - Not mentioned 报告的核心观点 - Cost increase and the Double Eleven peak season drive the plastic price to rebound, but under the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, it is expected that plastic will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 行情分析 - On November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1] - As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1] - Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and the crude oil price rebounds after a decline. However, OPEC has adjusted the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become a consensus, so the increase in crude oil price is limited [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year has started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a capacity of 800,000 tons per year has recently been put into production. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased [1] - The agricultural film is in the peak season, and orders are gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable, the demand in the north begins to decrease, the downstream operating rate drops, and the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient [1] - Traders are cautious about the future market, generally reducing prices and actively shipping. There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] 期现行情 期货方面 - The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,824 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,853 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.91%. The position volume decreased by 40,847 lots to 540,755 lots [2] 现货方面 - The PE spot market partially rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 80 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,980 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons compared with the previous week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton compared with the previous week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton compared with the previous week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The plastic industry is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although the cost increase and macro - warming have pushed the plastic price to rebound, the plastic itself lacks upward momentum. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and the current peak season is not as good as expected, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices such as Lianyungang Petrochemical's HDPE Phase I increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level, and the destocking has accelerated slightly at the end of the month. The cost of crude oil is oscillating. New production capacities have been put into trial operation or production. Although the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase, the current peak season is not satisfactory, and the downstream purchasing willingness is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.41% to close at 6899 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 15,690 lots to 524,390 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price range from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6890 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9050 - 9880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7160 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of October 31, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat at $755/ton and $765/ton respectively [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The production of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased due to the restart of some devices and the increase in the load of private enterprises. The supply is expected to increase slightly this week, and the pressure on spot sales remains. The inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises is expected to rise slightly. On the demand side, the operation of semi - steel tire enterprises is generally stable, but some enterprises' maintenance has affected the overall capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire enterprises continue the previous production - control state, and some enterprises' maintenance plans at the beginning of this month may still affect the short - term capacity utilization rate. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11670 - 12200 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 33170, down 2323; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2670 tons, up 180 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different manufacturers in different regions remains unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 50 yuan/ton, and the other basis is 130 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 68.12 dollars/barrel, down 0.5 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 64.01 dollars/barrel, down 0.59 dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 597.38 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 840 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton; the price of butadiene CFR China is 1095 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9550 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 15.11 million tons/week, down 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate is 67.91%, down 0.24 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene is 24000 tons, down 3300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 49.57%, up 0.44 percentage points [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 12.92 million tons, up 0.67 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 75.85%, up 6.7 percentage points; the production profit is - 478 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the social inventory is 3.17 million tons, up 0.11 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 25100 tons, up 1900 tons; the trader's inventory is 6620 tons, down 790 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.77%, down 0.36 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic full - steel tires is 63.84%, down 0.92 percentage points; the monthly output of full - steel tires is 12750000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56970000 pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong is 39.22 days, down 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.14 days, down 0.91 days [2]. Industry News - As of August 28, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 3.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 70.97%, a month - on - month increase of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points. In August 2025, the output of cis - butadiene rubber in China is 13.57 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2].

Report Overview - Report Date: 2025-05-07 - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the domestic raw material supply is abundant, prices are weakening, and cost support is insufficient. The overall inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises has decreased slightly. Under the expectation of increased supply, the trading focus of the spot market is under pressure, with a decrease in production enterprise inventory and an increase in sample trading enterprise inventory. The inventory level is at the mid - year position, and it is expected that the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises will increase in the short term. In terms of demand, last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. This is mainly because some enterprises gradually entered the maintenance or load - reduction operation stage due to the holiday, dragging down the enterprise capacity utilization rate. The capacity utilization rate is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The short - term trading range for the br2506 contract is recommended to be between 11,000 and 11,800 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract is 11,375 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 25,104, with a week - on - week decrease of 639. The synthetic rubber 6 - 7 spread is - 50 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 7,470 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 190 tons [2]. 3.1.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,550 yuan/ton; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,600 yuan/ton; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,650 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change. The basis of synthetic rubber is 275 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. 3.1.3 Upstream Situation - Brent crude oil is at 62.15 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.92 dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil is at 59.09 dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 1.96 dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 790 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 554.75 dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.5 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1000 dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9175 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 68.86%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 36,500 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1700 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 48.5%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.39 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 12.83 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.65 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 67.17%, with a week - on - week increase of 4.41 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is 136 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 515 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 3.23 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 million tons [2]. 3.1.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly ending inventory of butadiene rubber in manufacturers is 26,850 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1790 tons; the weekly ending inventory of butadiene rubber in traders is 5100 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1490 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 72.43%, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.68 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 56.24%, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.22 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.69 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 3.09 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.66 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 11.56 million pieces. The weekly ending inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 43.08 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35 days; the weekly ending inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.91 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of April 30, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared with the previous period (April 23, 2025), a week - on - week decrease of 0.93%. During this period, approaching the Labor Day holiday, some downstream enterprises made appropriate stockpiling of raw materials. The continuous increase of raw material butadiene has slightly alleviated the market's bearish sentiment, but under the influence of the expected increase in supply, the trading focus of the spot market is under pressure. The inventory of sample production enterprises has decreased, and the inventory of sample trading enterprises has increased. As of April 30, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.29 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.54%, a week - on - week decrease of 6.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.74 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Key Points to Watch - There is no news today [2].