Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing interest and potential for stablecoins in China, particularly in the context of the internationalization of the Renminbi and the strategic response to the dominance of US stablecoins [1][5][7] - Chinese tech giants like Alibaba, Tencent, and JD.com are actively supporting a new stablecoin initiative pegged to the Renminbi, indicating a shift towards exploring stablecoins as a financial tool [1][7] - The total market capitalization of stablecoins has surpassed $250 billion, driven largely by the popularity of US dollar-backed stablecoins, which are supported by a favorable regulatory environment in the US [5][6] Group 2 - Stablecoins are defined as digital tokens whose value is pegged to other assets, making them distinct from volatile cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [2] - The annual trading volume of stablecoins is projected to reach $15.6 trillion in 2024, surpassing the transaction volumes of Visa and Mastercard [3] - The emergence of stablecoins as investment tools is growing, with companies like PayPal offering interest on their stablecoin holdings [3] Group 3 - The US currently lacks a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, with state-level regulations in place, while Congress is working on establishing a comprehensive framework [6] - The potential risks associated with stablecoins include market volatility and the lack of robust safeguards in existing legislative proposals, which could embed vulnerabilities in the financial system [6] - China is facing increasing calls to explore the use of stablecoins for cross-border payments, as the US solidifies its dominance in the digital asset space [7][8] Group 4 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority has initiated a pilot project for its e-HKD, collaborating with financial institutions to develop use cases for CBDCs and tokenized deposits [7] - The integration of Renminbi-backed stablecoins into existing digital payment systems in China could facilitate their international application, particularly in cross-border trade [8] - Stablecoins linked to the digital Renminbi may provide a government-backed alternative to US dollar-pegged tokens, potentially shifting international demand towards Chinese digital assets [8]

Group 1: Core Concept of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a stable value, typically pegged to fiat currencies or commodities [1] - They emerged to address the volatility of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, simplifying the transaction process by allowing users to exchange fiat for stablecoins, which can then be traded on-chain [2] Group 2: Operational Logic - Stablecoins are issued with a 1:1 peg to specific assets, ensuring that for every stablecoin issued, an equivalent asset is held in reserve [3] - When users redeem stablecoins, the corresponding amount is destroyed, and the equivalent reserve asset is paid out, maintaining a synchronized supply [4] Group 3: Types of Stablecoins - Stablecoins can be categorized into four main types: fiat-collateralized (e.g., USDT, USDC), commodity-collateralized (e.g., PAXG), crypto-collateralized (e.g., DAI), and algorithmic stablecoins (e.g., USNBT) [5] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape - In August 2023, Singapore's Monetary Authority released a regulatory framework for stablecoins, followed by the EU's Crypto Asset Market Regulation in December 2024 [6] - Hong Kong is set to implement its Stablecoin Ordinance in August 2025, with several institutions participating in a regulatory sandbox [8] Group 5: Market Outlook - As of July 2025, the global stablecoin market comprises 264 types with a total market capitalization exceeding $255 billion, with projections suggesting it could reach $2 trillion in the coming years [10] - However, JPMorgan has a more conservative estimate, predicting a market size of only $500 billion by 2028, indicating a growth rate of over 25% regardless of the outlook [10] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Key exchanges include Coinbase, Robinhood, and OSL, which are integral to the stablecoin ecosystem [12] - Major issuers like Circle, which issues USDC, derive most of their revenue from reserve asset yields, making their profitability closely tied to interest rates [14] - Other notable players include PayPal with its PYUSD stablecoin and various entities in the JD and Yuan ecosystems focusing on cross-border payments [16][17][18]

这已不再是"币圈创新"，而是一个快速成型的金融基础设施市场。 银行在问："存款代币化能不能挑战稳定币？" Circle成功上市，标志着稳定币正式进入主流金融视野。从投资人、银行、央行、支付机构 到创业者，每个群体对稳定币的理解和担忧都不一样。稳定币正在重塑支付、货币乃至全球 金融秩序，它不仅仅是"链上的美元"，而是一次系统性创新浪潮。 传统金融在问："什么是稳定币？" 对大多数传统金融人士而言，稳定币像是某种"电子美元"或数字钱包里的法币映射。但其实它是运行在 区块链上的、锚定法币价值的数字资产。以USDC、USDT为代表的稳定币具有： 它是一种"互联网原生的货币单位"，正逐步成为数字经济的底层结算资产。 券商在问："除了Circle，还有谁做稳定币？" Circle IPO成功后，稳定币相关公司纷纷进入投资视野。目前已有多家科技与金融公司参与： 一些银行尝试通过"代币化存款"来对抗稳定币。但问题在于： 稳定币的优势在于开放性与可组合性，不是监管"许可"能弥补的。它们已经成为链上应用的"默认货 币"。 央行在问："CBDC不更好吗？" 央行数字货币（CBDC）虽然理论上更合规，但却在现实中面临技术困境： CB ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.08 稳定币，看好场景拓展规模扩张 [Table_Industry] 综合金融 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 ——稳定币专题研究之二 | [table_Authors] 刘欣琦(分析师) | 孙坤(分析师) | | --- | --- | | 021-38676666 | 021-38676666 | | 登记编号 S0880515050001 | S0880523030001 | 本报告导读： 稳定币应用场景持续拓展，未来规模有望达到 3.5 万亿美元。Circle 作为稳定币头部 企业，业务布局、生态构建与财务表现兼具成长势能与挑战。 投资要点： 股 票 研 究 行 业 专 题 研 究 1. 稳定币：应用场景持续拓展 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 [Table_Summary] 稳定币应用场景持续拓展。从 2014 年第一个稳定币 USDT 诞生、 聚焦加密货币交易起步，2019 年摩根大通 JPM Coin 入局，推动机 构跨境贸易结算；2020 年 DeFi 爆发叠加 PayPal USD 上线，让稳 定币 ...

报告导读： 稳定币应用场景持续拓展，未来规模有望达到 3.5 万亿美元。 稳定币应用场景持续拓展。 从 2014 年第一个稳定币 USDT 诞生、聚焦加密货币交易起步， 2019 年摩 根大通 JPM Coin 入局，推动机构跨境贸易结算； 2020 年 DeFi 爆发叠加 PayPal USD 上线，让稳定 币渗透消费支付与去中心化金融。当前，四类场景逐步落地： 1) 加密资产交易中，支持 BTC 、 ETH 等 加密货币买卖， RWA 资产交易、 NFTs 定价结算， DeFi 协议抵押品等。 2 ）跨境支付场景下，区块链 稳定币可点对点即时传输，无中介、结算周期短。 3) 消费支付中，稳定币融入互联网金融体系，以更低 成本、更快速度转账。 4 ）传统资本市场里，可将外汇、证券等资产代币化，借稳定币计价结算，革新资 本市场交易，提升资产可用性与可转让性。 稳定币未来规模有望达到 3.5 万亿美元。 通过加密资产、跨境支付、日常消费支付、传统资本市场四大 场景测算：加密资产领域，随加密货币市场中性 10% 增速扩容，稳定币按 8.22% 占比， 2030 年达 3633 亿美元；跨境支付依托区块链优势，假设 ...

中国香港特别行政区立法会通过的《稳定币条例草案》将于8月1日起正式实施；与此同时，《指导 与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（下称《天才法案》）也在美国参议院顺利通过，接下来经众议院表 决后将提交美国总统特朗普签署。若进展顺利，全球或将有更多国家跟进稳定币的政策创新。稳定币正 成为全球数字资产阵营中最受瞩目的焦点，而围绕其衍生的国际数字金融主导权博弈也可能愈演愈烈。 作为数字货币阵营中的新兴力量，稳定币与特定资产（如法定货币、贵金属或其他加密货币等）挂 钩，其中最主要的是与美元、欧元等法币锚定。这意味着稳定币的价值基础来源于国家法定货币，因而 具备稳定性特征。从这个角度看，稳定币可被视为法币的衍生形态；但由于其并非由中央银行发行，而 是由私营机构创设，因此又可归类为私人数字代币或市场化数字法币。 区块链及其分布式账本与智能合约构成稳定币的底层技术架构。在区块链网络中，所有参与用户均 作为节点存在，节点间可直接交易（即去中心化特征），同时交易记录会同步至全网节点。任何试图篡 改交易信息的行为必须获得所有节点认可，而这种情况几乎不可能发生，因此区块链交易具有极高的可 信度。由此可见，稳定币既继承了传统法币的信任度与稳 ...

Core Insights - PayPal (PYPL) shares have declined 13.7% year to date, primarily due to increased competition in the fintech sector from companies like Visa, Mastercard, Apple Pay, and Adyen [1][2] - Despite PayPal's struggles, Visa and Mastercard have seen share increases of 10.3% and 4.5% respectively, indicating PayPal's relative underperformance [2][7] - PayPal is transitioning from a payments provider to a comprehensive commerce partner, focusing on personalized experiences and a unified platform for consumers and merchants [3][18] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, PayPal's transaction margin dollars increased by 7% year over year to $3.72 billion, driven by strong performance in omnichannel commerce and Venmo, with Venmo revenues rising by 20% [4][10] - The Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) segment saw over 20% volume growth in Q1, with monthly active accounts up 18% year over year, indicating strong consumer engagement [5][7] - PayPal's forward 12-month P/E ratio is 13.74X, significantly lower than the industry average of 22.48X, suggesting the stock is undervalued compared to peers like Visa and Mastercard [11][13] Strategic Initiatives - PayPal is expanding its omnichannel strategy internationally, with plans to roll out NFC functionality in Germany and the UK [4][10] - The company is enhancing its partnerships with firms like Coinbase, Fiserv, and Shopify to bolster its growth outlook and expand the adoption of its PayPal USD stablecoin [9][18] - Investments in product modernization and geographic expansion are expected to impact margin improvement in the near term, but are essential for long-term growth [10][18] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PayPal's 2025 earnings is $5.08 per share, reflecting a 9.25% growth over 2024, with Q2 2025 earnings estimated at $1.30 per share, indicating a 9.2% increase year over year [14][15] - Recent estimate revisions show a positive trend for the second quarter and full years 2025 and 2026, although the outlook for Q3 is less favorable [14][19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Yeahka (9923 HK) Core Insights - Stablecoins are reshaping the global cross-border payment landscape with advantages such as short settlement times, low costs, and resistance to exchange rate fluctuations, making them ideal for various payment scenarios [2][10] - Yeahka has expanded internationally since 2021, obtaining payment licenses in Singapore and the U.S., and launched its cross-border payment brand YeahPay in 2023, achieving an overseas transaction volume of over 1.1 billion RMB in 2024, a nearly 5-fold year-on-year increase [11][12] - The traditional cross-border payment model incurs fees of approximately 3-8% for merchants, while third-party payment platforms like Yeahka generate revenue through diverse models including transaction fees, currency conversion fees, and interest income from deposited funds [12][10] Summary by Sections Section: Stablecoins in Cross-Border Payments - Stablecoins enable peer-to-peer real-time settlement through distributed ledger technology, reducing transaction costs and compressing settlement times to minutes compared to the traditional banking system which relies on the SWIFT network [2][10] Section: Yeahka's Overseas Expansion - Yeahka has successfully launched its cross-border payment brand YeahPay and signed a global strategic cooperation memorandum with Alipay International, marking significant growth in its overseas business [11][12] Section: Existing Payment Industry Model - The revenue model for third-party payment platforms includes transaction fees, currency conversion fees, interest income from overseas payments, and technology output, showcasing a diverse approach to profitability [12][10] Section: Future Business Models for Third-Party Payment Providers - Stablecoins present new business opportunities for acquirers, allowing them to expand into overseas markets and diversify payment scenarios, such as providing one-stop services for merchants [13][14]

Core Insights - Retail access to cryptocurrencies is improving as platforms enhance onboarding and user experiences while aligning with regulatory standards [1] - The importance of stablecoins is growing in bridging traditional finance and the crypto space, with major banks exploring their own initiatives [2] - The investment attractiveness of Coinbase Global Inc. (COIN) and PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) is being evaluated based on their fundamentals [3] Factors to Consider for Coinbase (COIN) - Coinbase is the largest registered crypto exchange in the U.S. and is well-positioned to benefit from market volatility and rising digital asset prices [4] - The company more than doubled its total revenues in 2024, driven by increased transaction revenues and market share growth [5] - Coinbase closed 2024 with $9.3 billion in USD resources, a $3.8 billion increase year-over-year, and has improved its debt management [6] - Rising transaction and operating expenses are pressuring profit margins, and the company is highly exposed to cryptocurrency price volatility [7] Factors to Consider for PayPal (PYPL) - PayPal is a leading online payment provider with a strong product portfolio, facilitating secure transactions for customers and merchants [8] - The company allows users to buy, sell, and hold cryptocurrencies, establishing itself as a user-friendly entry point into digital assets [9] - PayPal is actively promoting its stablecoin, PayPal USD (PYUSD), and has integrated it with Solana for low-cost transfers [10] - A partnership with Coinbase enables fee-free PYUSD purchases and enhances distribution, positioning PayPal uniquely in the market [11][12] Estimates for COIN and PYPL - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for COIN's 2025 revenues implies a 5.9% year-over-year increase, while EPS estimates indicate a 61.1% decline [13] - PYPL's 2025 revenue and EPS estimates imply a year-over-year increase of 3.2% and 9.3% respectively [14][15] Valuation Comparison - Coinbase is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 59.67, while PayPal's forward earnings multiple is at 13.75, indicating a significant valuation difference [16] Conclusion - Both Coinbase and PayPal are key players in promoting stablecoin adoption and crypto payments, with distinct strategies that may lead to competitive dynamics in the market [17] - Year-to-date, COIN shares have gained 38.9%, while PayPal shares have decreased by 13.8%, suggesting COIN may be a safer investment option [18]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion on stablecoins highlights their role in enhancing global monetary policy coordination, innovating cross-border payments, and constructing regulatory frameworks, with a focus on the implications of dollar-pegged stablecoins and the need for careful consideration of their impact on economic sovereignty and financial stability [5][6][7]. Group 1: Introduction and Definition - Stablecoins are a special type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain price stability by pegging to fiat currencies, physical assets, or algorithmic mechanisms, making them suitable for payment mediums and value storage tools [14][15]. - The global stablecoin market has seen significant growth, with a total market value exceeding hundreds of billions, and USDT and USDC accounting for nearly 90% of the market share [19][19]. Group 2: Market Environment and Demand - Traditional cross-border payments face challenges such as long processing times and high fees, while stablecoins can facilitate near-instantaneous and low-cost transactions, enhancing global supply chain efficiency [20]. - The decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem relies heavily on stablecoins as core assets for lending, trading, and derivatives, directly affecting the health of the DeFi market [21]. - Traditional financial institutions are exploring stablecoin issuance to improve payment efficiency and expand business boundaries, as seen with JPM Coin [22]. Group 3: Types of Companies Issuing Stablecoins - Financial technology companies, such as SFJC and XD Technology, are well-positioned to issue stablecoins due to their expertise in blockchain and digital currency technologies [23]. - Cross-border payment companies, like HLJH and LKL, have the necessary licenses and technology to support stablecoin circulation in international transactions [24]. - Companies with relevant licenses or compliance qualifications, such as the issuer of USDC, are also capable of issuing stablecoins [25]. Group 4: Positive Impacts of Issuing Stablecoins - Stablecoins can significantly enhance cross-border payment efficiency and reduce costs, as they allow for real-time transactions without relying on traditional banking systems [31]. - They provide a stable trading medium in the volatile cryptocurrency market, allowing investors to mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [32]. - The issuance of stablecoins can drive financial inclusion by lowering barriers to entry for financial services, particularly in underserved regions [33]. - Stablecoins can attract new participants and capital into the financial market, bridging traditional finance and cryptocurrency [34]. - Companies can generate revenue through interest on reserves, as demonstrated by Circle's USDC, which significantly contributes to its overall revenue [35]. Group 5: Regulatory Environment and Challenges - The regulatory landscape for stablecoins varies significantly across jurisdictions, with the U.S. and Hong Kong implementing specific requirements for issuance, including licensing and reserve management [86][91]. - Companies must navigate complex compliance requirements, including maintaining high liquidity reserves and adhering to anti-money laundering regulations [108][109]. - The potential for regulatory changes poses risks to stablecoin projects, as seen in instances where sudden policy shifts have impacted market confidence [39]. Group 6: Future Trends and Considerations - The future of stablecoins is likely to involve stricter regulations and a focus on compliance, as well as the expansion of application scenarios beyond traditional finance [115]. - Companies must consider market demand and operational capabilities when planning stablecoin issuance, ensuring alignment with existing business models [66][67]. - The competitive landscape will require companies to differentiate their stablecoin offerings and stay informed about regulatory developments to ensure sustainable operations [70][71].