文章来源：麦通MSX研究院 作者：程智鹏 2026 年 2 月，全球资本市场呈现出一幅充满张力的双轨图景。纳斯达克指数在 AI 浪潮余温中维持着结 构性韧性，而加密货币市场却正在经历一场无声却深刻的出清。 这不是一次简单的周期性回调。根据 Coinglass 数据，仅 2 月初的 48 小时内，全网爆仓金额突破 25.8 亿美元，比特币价格一度击穿 7.6 万美元关口，较历史高点回撤超 41%。然而，相比于屏幕上跳动的红 色数字，一个更为隐秘且关键的信号正在华尔街的交易台上传递——历史性的相关性背离。 过去五年，加密资产曾被视为'带杠杆的纳斯达克指数'，与科技成长股如影随形。但在 2026 年初的这 场调整中，这种锚定关系被打破。加密资产正在被系统性剥离出'风险资产'的组合，其波动特征开始呈 现出与黄金、大宗商品趋同的特征。这一信号暗示市场正在重新评估加密货币的属性，它不再被单纯视 为代表未来的科技革命，而是被降级为一种更多依附于供需博弈的另类商品。 麦通MSX研究院认为，在原生叙事枯竭与机构去杠杆的双重压力下，加密行业正在被迫告别那个试图 构建平行金融体系的草莽时代，转而开启一场残酷的'物种演化'——从颠覆 ...

Core Viewpoint - The legislation surrounding stablecoins may have adverse effects on their development, potentially limiting participation from licensed financial institutions and creating opportunities for non-financial entities like Tesla [3][5]. Group 1: Stablecoin Legislation - The lack of clear legal status for stablecoins and the associated crypto assets makes it difficult for banks and licensed institutions to engage in this market [3][5]. - Once stablecoins are recognized as legal, financial institutions such as banks, securities firms, and funds will aggressively compete for market share [3][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Recent trends indicate a shift towards tokenization of deposits and rapid on-chain integration of real-world assets (RWA) like stocks, bonds, and ETFs, driven by licensed financial institutions rather than non-licensed entities [3][5]. - The regulatory framework for financial institutions is more robust compared to that of non-licensed issuers, which could significantly alter the competitive landscape if these institutions adopt blockchain technology [3][5].

Core Insights - The crypto industry is transitioning into a new era defined as "Kinetic Finance," focusing on the efficiency of asset flow and profitability rather than just network speed [1][2][33] - Future opportunities in crypto are expected to center around three core transformations: asset transformation, subject transformation, and regulatory transformation [1][2] Asset Transformation - Real World Assets (RWA) are evolving from simple digital receipts to a global 24/7 settlement system, fundamentally enhancing capital efficiency [4][6] - Tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds have surpassed $7.3 billion, showing over 300% year-on-year growth, while tokenized U.S. stocks are emerging as the second major standardized asset with a current scale of approximately $500 million [6][7] - The RWA market is projected to reach $16 trillion by 2030, with a significant growth inflection point expected in 2026, where non-stablecoin RWA is anticipated to exceed $100 billion [7] Subject Transformation - The role of human traders is shifting towards AI agents, which will utilize DeFi protocols as financial APIs to seek optimal global returns [1][2][14] - AI-driven payment networks are expected to see substantial growth, with predictions indicating that on-chain automated trading volume will reach $5 billion daily by 2027, with a CAGR exceeding 120% [15] Regulatory Transformation - The regulatory landscape is moving from post-event supervision to code compliance, embedding privacy and compliance within the infrastructure to facilitate institutional capital entry [2][11] - The emergence of programmable privacy solutions is becoming essential for institutions to protect sensitive trading strategies while ensuring compliance [24][25] Institutional Adoption - The perception of crypto assets is shifting from speculative investments to global macro-hedging tools, with institutions increasingly focusing on compliance as a competitive advantage [21][23] - New financial products such as basis arbitrage and structured notes are being developed to provide institutions with diversified investment options [21][22] DeFi Evolution - DeFi is transitioning from passive smart contracts to proactive intelligent services, with a focus on strategy-driven asset management [28][29] - The market is witnessing a shift from human-to-machine interactions to machine-to-machine interactions, emphasizing the need for a DeFi adaptation layer [29][30] Conclusion - The industry is expected to focus on the release of asset efficiency rather than just network capacity, marking a significant shift towards "Kinetic Finance" [33][34] - Projects that can effectively reduce trust costs and enhance capital efficiency through code are anticipated to become foundational in this new paradigm [34]

Cryptocurrency Holdings & Investments - Bitmine increased its $ETH holdings to 4,066,062, valued at approximately $1242B [1] - Trump Media's Bitcoin holdings increased by 451 $BTC to a total of 11,542 $BTC, valued at around $1B [2] - ETHZilla sold 24,291 $ETH worth $745M, shifting its focus to RWA-driven growth [2] Funding & Valuation - Erebor, a Peter Thiel-backed digital bank, is set to raise $350M in a funding round, valuing the company at $435B [1] Market Trends & Developments - JPMorgan, with $45T in assets, is exploring offering crypto trading services for institutional clients [3] - Aster will allocate up to 80% of daily platform fees to automatic and discretionary $ASTER buybacks, starting December 23 [2] - Coinbase is set to acquire prediction markets startup The Clearing Company [2] - Tether is preparing to launch its US compliant stablecoin, with the CEO stating "USAT will be the delivery of value" [3] - Strategy increased its USD reserve to $219B but did not purchase any new Bitcoin last week [3] - Michael Selig has been sworn in as the 16th CFTC Chairman [1]

Core Insights - Grayscale's report indicates that 2026 will accelerate the "institutional era" of cryptocurrency, driven by rising macro storage demand and significant regulatory improvements [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The report forecasts that Bitcoin is likely to reach new highs in 2026 [1] - The U.S. may advance bipartisan-supported market structure legislation in 2026, promoting the integration of stablecoins, real-world assets (RWA), on-chain securities, and traditional finance [1] Group 2: Asset Tokenization - Asset tokenization is expected to reach a turning point, with potential for 1000-fold growth by 2030 [1] Group 3: Institutional Focus - Stablecoins, DeFi, on-chain income, and sustainable cash flow will become core metrics of interest for institutions [1] - Structural differentiation within the industry is anticipated to intensify [1]

Group 1 - AI is evolving from "digital assistants" to "autonomous execution clusters," with a significant transition expected by 2026 towards multi-agent systems that will redefine cloud speed and operational leverage for enterprises [3][5][7] - The integration of electrification, materials science, and AI is creating an "electro-industrial stack" that will serve as the foundational logic for the physical world, potentially leading to a renaissance in American manufacturing [3][5][21] - SaaS is transitioning from passive recording systems to proactive intelligent workflow engines, enabling personalized services tailored to individual needs rather than generic optimization for all [3][5][16] Group 2 - Multi-agent systems will reshape enterprise organizational structures, allowing for complex workflow management and significantly increasing revenue per employee compared to traditional companies [7][8] - The future of AI aims to minimize screen time by automating 90% of repetitive tasks, shifting investment focus from user engagement metrics to the quality of automated task completion [8][10] - The emergence of platforms that can efficiently manage unstructured data will be crucial, as 80% of enterprise knowledge is currently locked in non-structured formats, representing a significant opportunity in data infrastructure [9][10] Group 3 - The "electrification renaissance" in American manufacturing is characterized by the integration of software and AI to enhance operational efficiency, with a vision of producing complex products like nuclear reactors at scale [22][23] - The rise of the "electro-industrial stack" will enable software to control physical processes, creating a strategic advantage for nations and companies that dominate this sector [23][24] - Preventive healthcare services will become a new business model, focusing on long-term monitoring and care, thus shifting the healthcare paradigm towards proactive management rather than reactive treatment [24][25] Group 4 - Privacy will be a key competitive factor in the cryptocurrency space, with privacy-focused blockchains likely to dominate the market due to strong network effects [26][27] - The tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) will increase, with innovative financial products leveraging the unique characteristics of blockchain technology [27][28] - Stablecoins are set to become the foundational layer for global payments, facilitating real-time cross-border transactions and transforming the financial landscape [28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing risks associated with virtual currencies, particularly focusing on scams disguised as legitimate investment opportunities, emphasizing the need for heightened vigilance among investors [4][5][6]. Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory actions in China target not just virtual currencies but also the fraudulent schemes that exploit these concepts, indicating a growing concern over illegal fundraising and scams [4][5]. - The People's Bank of China reiterated that virtual currencies do not hold the same legal status as fiat currencies and should not be circulated in the market [4]. Scam Mechanisms - Scammers are utilizing sophisticated tactics to lure investors, often presenting themselves as knowledgeable individuals in investment groups, which creates a false sense of security [5][10]. - The article describes a specific case where an individual was gradually manipulated into investing in virtual currencies through a series of seemingly legitimate interactions and small initial profits [10][13][14]. Investor Experience - The narrative illustrates how trust is built over time through consistent communication and small wins, leading to larger investments in high-risk schemes [14][22]. - The individual in the story experienced a gradual escalation from traditional stock options to cryptocurrency options, showcasing how scammers pivot their strategies to maintain engagement and investment [16][18][25]. Warning Signs - Key indicators of potential scams include the requirement to share personal investment information, the use of multiple accounts by the same scammer, and the sudden urgency to invest more during market downturns [32][34][35]. - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing these red flags and maintaining skepticism, especially when dealing with unfamiliar investment platforms [6][40]. Conclusion - The article concludes with a cautionary note about the dangers of succumbing to greed and the importance of being aware of the risks associated with virtual currencies and investment schemes [40][41].

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RWA Market Overview - RWA (Real World Assets) value on Avalanche has exceeded $1 billion, specifically reaching $125 billion [1] - Avalanche's RWA market share is 57% [1] Growth & Investment - A recent $500 million increase in assets was facilitated via BlackRock [1] Assets & Tokenization - The RWA value is distributed across 42 assets on Avalanche [1] - Avalanche is tokenizing real-world assets [1]