Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Manufacturing Sector**: June manufacturing PMI has dropped into contraction territory, significantly lower than the levels from 2020 to 2024, indicating increased economic downward pressure which may affect related stock sectors [1][2] - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market has shown weak performance, with transaction volumes in 30 major cities falling below the levels of the past three years. The second-hand housing price index continues to decline, signaling increased investment risks in the real estate sector [1][3] - **Automotive Market**: The automotive sector is benefiting from new energy and smart vehicle policies, with retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increasing significantly year-on-year. The full steel tire operating rate is strong, reflecting a high level of prosperity in the automotive industry chain, which is favorable for related company stocks [1][5] - **Steel Industry**: Rebar inventory has been continuously reduced since March, but production remains below the levels of previous years. Although the operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has rebounded, overall production performance is mixed, necessitating attention to supply and demand changes in the steel industry and their impact on stock prices [1][6] - **Shipping and Trade**: The shipping index for European futures and the SCFI composite index have shown an upward trend, indicating that freight rates are significantly affected by tariffs. Following the Sino-US Geneva meeting, the index has rebounded quickly, highlighting the potential impact of trade policy changes on the shipping sector [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Activity Indicators**: Recent high-frequency economic activity indicators have shown volatility, with a notable decline since late March but remaining above 1. The PMI index for June has entered a low season, dropping into contraction territory, significantly below the levels from 2020 to 2024 [2][9] - **Real Estate Transactions**: The real estate market has seen a decline in transaction volumes, with the performance in 30 major cities weaker than the same period in 2022 to 2024. The downward trend in the second-hand housing price index and accelerating decline in transaction volumes indicate rising investment risks [3][9] - **Automotive Sales Growth**: As of mid-June, retail sales of passenger cars have increased by 23% year-on-year, while wholesale sales have risen by 38%. The full steel tire operating rate stands at 65.48%, which is stronger than the levels from 2019 to 2024, second only to the situation in 2020 [5][9] - **Steel Production Trends**: Rebar inventory has been consistently reduced since March, with production levels lower than those in 2022 to 2024. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has shown a rebound, reaching a near-high point in recent years [6][9] - **Trade Recovery Indicators**: The container throughput at Chinese ports has shown signs of recovery, with the Los Angeles port's import container throughput continuing to grow. The positive performance of South Korean export data indicates a revival in global trade activities, which may boost the performance of related logistics companies [4][8][9] Additional Important Insights - **Macroeconomic Conditions**: The overall macroeconomic situation is mixed, with the high-frequency economic activity index rebounding after hitting a low in May, but the EPMI has weakened due to seasonal factors and is significantly below the levels from 2020 to 2024. The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, while the automotive market is recovering steadily, and production indicators in the steel industry are showing signs of stabilization [9]

Shipping Price Index - The SCFI composite index has shown a rebound of 9% from the end of March to mid-May, influenced by export rush and tariff impacts[10] - The CCFI index, the second largest shipping price index globally, fell to its annual low on April 3, down 27% from the end of 2024, but has since rebounded slightly[13] - The BDI index has been on a downward trend since late March, hitting a low on April 16 before a slight rebound, and then declining again from May 7[17] Port Cargo Throughput - Chinese port cargo throughput has shown resilience, with container throughput reaching a record high on April 27, surpassing 6 million TEUs[20] - The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest in the U.S., saw its import container throughput drop to the lowest level since June 2024 by May 10, indicating negative impacts from tariffs[22] Domestic Production Activity - The high-frequency economic activity index from the First Financial Research Institute has been declining since late March but remains above 1, indicating stronger activity compared to the previous year[29] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders index fell from 49% to 44.7%, while the EPMI production index dropped from 67.7% to 51.6%[29] Trade Outlook - South Korea's exports showed stronger-than-seasonal growth in early and late April, but weakened in mid-April, reflecting the impact of tariff negotiations with the U.S.[30] - The volatility in South Korean exports is expected to continue until the conclusion of U.S.-Korea trade negotiations[30] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected geopolitical conflicts, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and tighter overseas liquidity conditions[36]