研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 | 航运日报 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2602 | 1,706.0 | -73.1 | -4.11% | 27,173.0 | -37.68% | 20,008.0 | -8.27% | | EC2604 | 1,163.3 | -18.7 | -1.58% | 16,470.0 | -25.42% | 27,774.0 | 5.45% | | EC2606 | 1,415.0 | -7.9 | -0.56% | 929.0 | -44.90% | 2,476.0 | -0.12% | | EC2608 | 1,527.4 | -5. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline of SCFIS announced yesterday slightly exceeded market expectations, and the EC futures market showed a corrective oscillation today. The quote of $2500 per FEU for the first week of December released by MSK after the market basically met expectations. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market booking situation. The SCFIS European Line index is expected to remain at a low level in the second half of November, and the December quotes need to be monitored this week [5]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November has weakened. The demand for shipments is expected to gradually improve from November to December. The weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports in November and December is 265,500 and 283,300 TEU respectively, and 295,800 TEU in January 2026. The capacity in November and January next year has little change, while the capacity in December has decreased by 4.6% compared with the previous period. The recent market trading logic has returned to the spot market [6]. - The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Futures Market Performance**: On November 18, EC2512 closed at 1769.5 points, down 1.27% from the previous day's closing price. All listed futures contracts showed price declines, with varying degrees of decrease in trading volume and changes in open interest. The month - spread structure also had corresponding price changes [3][5]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European Line index was 1357.67 points, down 9.78% week - on - week and 51.02% year - on - year. Different container freight rates showed various trends, with some routes having price increases and others having decreases [3]. - **Fuel Costs**: The price of WTI crude oil's near - month contract was $59.62 per barrel, down 0.32% week - on - week and 13.63% year - on - year. The price of Brent crude oil's near - month contract was $63.62 per barrel, down 0.30% week - on - week and 12.6% year - on - year [3]. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Analysis**: The decline of the SCFIS European Line index was larger than expected, mainly due to the decline of MSK's freight rates. The index is expected to remain low in the second half of November. The demand for shipments is expected to improve from November to December, and the capacity in December has decreased compared with the previous period [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For unilateral trading, it is expected to be in a volatile state, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For arbitrage trading, also a wait - and - see approach is suggested [7]. Industry News The Palestinian government welcomed the US - proposed resolution on Gaza passed by the UN Security Council, which aims to establish a permanent and comprehensive cease - fire in the Gaza Strip, ensure the unobstructed entry and distribution of humanitarian aid, and reaffirm the Palestinian people's right to self - determination and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state [8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Manufacturing Sector**: June manufacturing PMI has dropped into contraction territory, significantly lower than the levels from 2020 to 2024, indicating increased economic downward pressure which may affect related stock sectors [1][2] - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market has shown weak performance, with transaction volumes in 30 major cities falling below the levels of the past three years. The second-hand housing price index continues to decline, signaling increased investment risks in the real estate sector [1][3] - **Automotive Market**: The automotive sector is benefiting from new energy and smart vehicle policies, with retail and wholesale sales of passenger cars increasing significantly year-on-year. The full steel tire operating rate is strong, reflecting a high level of prosperity in the automotive industry chain, which is favorable for related company stocks [1][5] - **Steel Industry**: Rebar inventory has been continuously reduced since March, but production remains below the levels of previous years. Although the operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has rebounded, overall production performance is mixed, necessitating attention to supply and demand changes in the steel industry and their impact on stock prices [1][6] - **Shipping and Trade**: The shipping index for European futures and the SCFI composite index have shown an upward trend, indicating that freight rates are significantly affected by tariffs. Following the Sino-US Geneva meeting, the index has rebounded quickly, highlighting the potential impact of trade policy changes on the shipping sector [1][7] Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Activity Indicators**: Recent high-frequency economic activity indicators have shown volatility, with a notable decline since late March but remaining above 1. The PMI index for June has entered a low season, dropping into contraction territory, significantly below the levels from 2020 to 2024 [2][9] - **Real Estate Transactions**: The real estate market has seen a decline in transaction volumes, with the performance in 30 major cities weaker than the same period in 2022 to 2024. The downward trend in the second-hand housing price index and accelerating decline in transaction volumes indicate rising investment risks [3][9] - **Automotive Sales Growth**: As of mid-June, retail sales of passenger cars have increased by 23% year-on-year, while wholesale sales have risen by 38%. The full steel tire operating rate stands at 65.48%, which is stronger than the levels from 2019 to 2024, second only to the situation in 2020 [5][9] - **Steel Production Trends**: Rebar inventory has been consistently reduced since March, with production levels lower than those in 2022 to 2024. The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan has shown a rebound, reaching a near-high point in recent years [6][9] - **Trade Recovery Indicators**: The container throughput at Chinese ports has shown signs of recovery, with the Los Angeles port's import container throughput continuing to grow. The positive performance of South Korean export data indicates a revival in global trade activities, which may boost the performance of related logistics companies [4][8][9] Additional Important Insights - **Macroeconomic Conditions**: The overall macroeconomic situation is mixed, with the high-frequency economic activity index rebounding after hitting a low in May, but the EPMI has weakened due to seasonal factors and is significantly below the levels from 2020 to 2024. The real estate market is experiencing a downturn, while the automotive market is recovering steadily, and production indicators in the steel industry are showing signs of stabilization [9]

Shipping Price Index - The SCFI composite index has shown a rebound of 9% from the end of March to mid-May, influenced by export rush and tariff impacts[10] - The CCFI index, the second largest shipping price index globally, fell to its annual low on April 3, down 27% from the end of 2024, but has since rebounded slightly[13] - The BDI index has been on a downward trend since late March, hitting a low on April 16 before a slight rebound, and then declining again from May 7[17] Port Cargo Throughput - Chinese port cargo throughput has shown resilience, with container throughput reaching a record high on April 27, surpassing 6 million TEUs[20] - The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest in the U.S., saw its import container throughput drop to the lowest level since June 2024 by May 10, indicating negative impacts from tariffs[22] Domestic Production Activity - The high-frequency economic activity index from the First Financial Research Institute has been declining since late March but remains above 1, indicating stronger activity compared to the previous year[29] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders index fell from 49% to 44.7%, while the EPMI production index dropped from 67.7% to 51.6%[29] Trade Outlook - South Korea's exports showed stronger-than-seasonal growth in early and late April, but weakened in mid-April, reflecting the impact of tariff negotiations with the U.S.[30] - The volatility in South Korean exports is expected to continue until the conclusion of U.S.-Korea trade negotiations[30] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected geopolitical conflicts, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and tighter overseas liquidity conditions[36]