▲ATFX图 直到周二亚市时段，黄金和白银开始了反弹，市场开始评估此前破纪录涨势突然回落的走势。现货黄金 一度上涨4.2%，突破每盎司4855美元；白银一度上涨8.1%，突破每盎司85美元，此前周一下跌7%，并 在1月30日创下盘中历史新低。由于长期上升趋势依然完好，金价仍保持在关键技术支撑位上方。 专题：ATFX外汇专栏投稿 2月3日，ATFX：自上周特朗普总统提名凯文·沃什为下一任美联储主席后，市场对降息的预期受到冲 击，周一的黄金价格延续了上周五十多年来的最大跌幅。周一公布的美国制造业经济活动改善，根据供 应管理协会（ISM）的数据，制造业活动已达到2022年以来的最高水平。提振收益率和美元，使得黄金 价格维持在5000美元关口以下。 现货黄金价格在1月30日暴跌近10%，创下1983年以来最大跌幅，跌破几天前刚刚触及的每盎司5000美 元的历史大关，抹去了今年以来的大部分涨幅。白银在同一交易日下跌27%，创下历史最大跌幅。 上个月贵金属价格飙升至历史新高，其迅猛上涨甚至令经验丰富的交易员都感到意外。投资者纷纷涌入 黄金和白银市场，原因是他们对地缘政治动荡、货币贬值以及美联储独立性受到威胁的担忧再度升温 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street has finally recognized the historical high price trend of gold, with many professionals caught off guard by the continuous rise in gold prices this year [1][3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - According to a recent Bank of America Merrill Lynch fund manager survey, 39% of investors do not hold gold, missing out on the current bull market gains [1] - Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, indicated that gold could easily rise to $5,000 or even $10,000 in the current environment, marking a rare moment where he considers gold allocation "semi-rational" [1][3] - Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts that gold prices will reach $5,000 per ounce by the end of next year, driven by investment demand [5] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The total production cost of gold is approximately $1,500 per ounce, but this does not explain why trading prices have reached $4,200, with some forecasts suggesting a rise to $5,000 next year [3] - The narrative surrounding gold is crucial; if American households recognize gold as a necessary hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation, prices could rise without limits [7] - Goldman Sachs noted that if 1% of privately held U.S. Treasury bonds were to flow into the gold market, prices could approach $5,000 [7] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - Retail investors in the U.S. have become a dominant force in the market, with high valuations no longer indicating a potential pullback [8] - The SPDR Gold Trust ETF and similar passive funds have seen significant inflows and increased trading volumes recently [6] - The ongoing increase in gold prices has led Wall Street fund managers to adjust their strategies to meet client demands, despite the inherent risks of a volatile bull market [7]

Core Viewpoint - Despite record-high gold prices, Western investors' demand for gold continues to rise, driven by increasing government debt and strong central bank purchases [1][10] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The American Gold Exchange reports that U.S. investors have primarily been net sellers of gold and silver during the ongoing bull market, cashing in profits as prices rise [1] - As of October 9, trading volume for the most active gold futures contracts on the Comex reached 448,407 contracts, the highest since April 12, 2024 [4] - The SPDR Gold Trust ETF saw trading volume rise to nearly 33.7 million shares on October 9, marking the highest level since April 22, 2025 [4] Group 2: Investor Behavior - U.S. retail investors only recently began participating as buyers in the gold and silver markets after the Federal Reserve signaled a dovish shift in late August [3] - The World Gold Council indicates that from June to September, North American gold ETFs experienced higher monthly inflows compared to Asia, despite gold prices reaching historical highs [7] - Tavi Costa from Crescat Capital notes that Western investors have only recently engaged in the current gold rally, influenced by the competitive performance of other asset classes [7] Group 3: Structural Changes - The current ETF infrastructure is more mature than in previous crises, allowing for faster capital inflows into the gold market [6] - The demand for physical gold is being driven by both retail investors and central banks, which are competing for the same physical gold [6] - Will Rhind from GraniteShares highlights that many new investors are more familiar with products like the SPDR Gold Trust ETF, leading to increased purchases [8] Group 4: Economic Context - The rise in gold trading volume reflects the severity of global economic imbalances, with central banks indicating a strong demand for gold to stabilize their currencies [8] - Samuelson from the American Gold Exchange argues that the current gold bull market is driven by unprecedented physical buying, rather than merely being a reaction to currency devaluation [10] - The ongoing inflation is eroding purchasing power, making gold and silver more attractive as stores of value compared to depreciating fiat currencies [10]

Group 1 - Gold futures prices have reached a record high of $3,491.30 per ounce, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 30.8% [5] - Bitcoin has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.6%, but it has declined by 5.4% from its historical high of $123,165.67 on July 14 [5] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.6% this year, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has only increased by 3.8% [5] Group 2 - Central banks globally have accelerated gold purchases due to geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - Traditional safe-haven assets like gold are preferred over newer alternatives like Bitcoin, which lacks a long history as a reserve asset [2] - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX.US) has surged by 71% year-to-date, while the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD.US) has increased by 29% [6]