Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term trend of precious metals may be volatile, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market's panic has dissipated, risk assets have counterattacked, and the US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, which has a certain supporting effect on the price of gold. The statement by the US President that the war with Iran is basically over has suppressed the rise of COMEX gold and led to a small decline, while COMEX silver first declined and then rose with risk assets [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 0.19% to $5148.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.60% to $87.34 per ounce. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.02% to 1141.12 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 2.31% to 21738 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - On March 9, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, were 1070.71 tons, a decrease of 2.61 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, were 15710.91 tons, a decrease of 50.71 tons from the previous trading day [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively in April is 11.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by June is 33.3% [1]. - US President Trump said in a phone interview that the war is basically over, which led to the dissipation of market panic, a more than 13% drop in the VIX panic index, and a large - scale counterattack of risk assets [1]. - G7 officials said that at the G7 finance ministers' meeting, a broad consensus was reached not to release oil reserves for the time being, and reserve releases and other measures would be taken to support global energy supply if necessary [1]. Market Logic - The US President's statement that the war is basically over and the consideration of controlling the Strait of Hormuz led to the dissipation of market panic and a counterattack of risk assets. The US dollar index fell 0.24% to 98.71, and the yield of the benchmark 10 - year US Treasury bond fell to 4.100%. The US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, and market risk - aversion sentiment supports the price of gold. The statement that the war with Iran is basically over suppressed the rise of COMEX gold and led to a small decline. COMEX silver first declined significantly and then rose with risk assets [1]. Trading Strategy The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should pay attention to controlling positions and preventing risks [2]

Core Insights - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) experienced a 2.43% decline over the past week despite a year-to-date gain of 19.1% and a 75.96% return over the past year, with net assets totaling $174.1 billion [1] - Tariff escalations and real interest rate pressures have negatively impacted gold prices, as Core PCE inflation rises while Treasury yields remain at 4.09% [1] - Retail sentiment shifted from bullish to neutral during the selloff, indicating a reconsideration of investment strategies rather than a complete abandonment of gold [1] Market Performance - GLD's performance is significantly influenced by real interest rates, which are crucial for its appeal since gold does not generate cash flow [1] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased from a peak of 4.29% in early February to 4.09%, which has provided some support for gold prices [1] - Core PCE inflation has shown a steady increase, reaching an index value of 127.92 in December 2025, which could further impact gold's performance depending on future Fed actions [1] Investment Dynamics - Institutional investors' behavior can lead to significant fluctuations in GLD's price, particularly during risk-off periods, as evidenced by a 31.9% increase in the VIX over the past month [1] - Historical data shows that GLD attracted approximately $30 billion in inflows following a 40% drawdown, highlighting the sensitivity of investor sentiment [1] - Monitoring GLD's physical gold holdings is essential, as a sustained drop in reported ounces may indicate institutional redemptions, while an increase suggests new investments [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that as of February 26, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, has a gold holding of 1,097.9 tons, which represents an increase of 0.28 tons from the previous trading day [1]

Group 1 - The total net asset value in the trust is approximately US$180.08 billion, equivalent to 35,179,151.22 ounces or 1,094.185 tonnes [1] - The data is reported as of February 24, 2026, indicating a specific timeline for the asset valuation [1] Group 2 - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, suggesting a positive trend in stock prices [2] - This signal indicates potential upward momentum in the market, which could attract investor interest [2]

Core Viewpoint - Gold has shown significant returns, with a 73% increase over the past year and an 18% increase year-to-date through February 20, 2026, making it an attractive asset class for investors seeking dedicated gold exposure [2]. Group 1: Product Overview - Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (AAAU) holds physical gold bullion at the Royal Canadian Mint, providing investors with a fractional claim on actual metal without derivatives or leverage [3]. - The fund's performance is directly tied to gold prices, making it a straightforward investment tool for portfolio diversification, inflation hedging, and safe-haven positioning [3]. Group 2: Performance Metrics - AAAU has returned 73.1% over the past year, closely matching SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) at 72.9%, with the difference attributed to AAAU's lower expense ratio of 0.18% compared to GLD's 0.40% [4]. - The current interest rate environment, with the Federal Reserve cutting rates and the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.08%, has created favorable conditions for gold, contributing to AAAU's strong returns [5]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - AAAU does not pay dividends or generate income, making it unsuitable for investors seeking yield from every portfolio position [6]. - The IRS classifies physical gold ETFs as collectibles, resulting in a maximum long-term capital gains tax of 28%, which is higher than the 20% rate for standard equity ETFs, potentially impacting after-tax returns [7].

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust provides direct exposure to gold prices, while the iShares Silver Trust is highlighted as a potentially better investment due to silver's broader industrial applications and recent price corrections [1][2]. Investment Performance - The SPDR Gold Trust has increased by over 70% in the past year and nearly tripled in value over the last five years [2]. - The iShares Silver Trust is suggested as a more favorable option following a significant price correction [2]. Industrial Demand for Silver - Silver has more industrial applications than gold, making it essential for sectors like artificial intelligence, electronics, medical devices, and 5G infrastructure [4][5]. - The artificial intelligence market is projected to grow at a 30.6% CAGR until 2033, while the 5G market is expected to maintain a 13.1% CAGR during the same period [5]. Price Potential - As demand from various industries increases, silver is anticipated to experience price rallies, benefiting the iShares Silver Trust [6]. - Silver serves as a store of value and an inflation hedge, similar to gold, but with additional industrial demand [7]. Market Correlation - Silver has a lower correlation to the stock market compared to other assets, although it still has some correlation due to its industrial uses [8]. - The industrial applications of silver are currently acting as significant tailwinds for its demand [9]. Risk and Upside - Silver is considered less risky than other lesser-known metals used in AI infrastructure, while offering higher potential upside compared to gold in a bullish economic cycle [9].

Group 1 - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, had a holding of 16,191.09 tons as of February 6, 2026, which represents a decrease of 56.36 tons from the previous trading day [1]

Group 1 - The core event was a significant drop in gold prices on January 30, 2026, with London gold prices falling from a historical high of $5598 per ounce to a low of $4682, marking the largest single-day drop since 1983, with a peak decline of 12% [1][3] - The immediate trigger for the drop was the nomination of Kevin Warsh, known for his hawkish stance, to replace Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, leading to a 1.01% increase in the US dollar index and subsequent selling pressure on gold [3] - Prior to the drop, gold prices had surged approximately 30% since the beginning of 2026, with speculative long positions reaching historical highs, indicating that the market was overbought and vulnerable to profit-taking [3] Group 2 - Following the extreme market conditions, major Chinese banks quickly adjusted gold contract margin requirements and trading limits to curb speculative trading, which inadvertently increased short-term market liquidity tension [5] - Despite the volatility, institutional interest in gold remained strong, with significant inflows into gold ETFs prior to the drop, indicating sustained long-term demand [5] - On February 3, gold prices rebounded with a single-day increase of over 6%, returning to the $5000 mark, although market sentiment had not fully recovered by February 5, as domestic gold prices fell again [5] Group 3 - The fluctuations in gold prices reflect a clash between short-term speculative sentiment and long-term investment logic, with central banks globally increasing their gold purchases, indicating ongoing macroeconomic support for gold [7] - In 2025, global central banks purchased a total of 863 tons of gold, with January 2026 alone seeing a surge to 1200 tons, highlighting a strong demand for gold amid geopolitical risks and a trend towards de-dollarization [7]

Core Viewpoint - On January 30, gold prices experienced a significant reversal, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly 40 years after reaching a historical high the previous trading day [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has become polarized following the sharp decline in gold prices, with some early investors remaining calm due to unrealized gains, while others who did not enter the market feel relieved [2] - Discussions on investment platforms reflect anxiety, with topics such as whether to hold or sell amid the price drop gaining traction [2] - Some investors are taking a contrarian approach by gradually increasing their positions, indicating a complex emotional landscape among market participants [2] Factors Behind Price Decline - The sharp drop in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including profit-taking after a rapid increase of approximately 30% since the beginning of 2026 [3] - Increased margin requirements for gold futures trading have exacerbated the volatility, with exchanges raising margin ratios, leading to a chain reaction of selling [3] - The expectation of changes in monetary policy, particularly with the nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, has added pressure on gold prices, as a stronger dollar negatively impacts gold [4] Institutional Perspectives - Various gold-themed ETFs have seen significant declines, with an average drop of over 7% on January 30, and some gold stock ETFs hitting their daily limit down [5] - Despite the recent volatility, there was a notable inflow of funds into related ETFs prior to the drop, indicating lingering optimism in the market [5] - Some institutions maintain a long-term bullish outlook on gold, citing factors such as ongoing de-dollarization, central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and inflation expectations as supportive for gold prices [6] - UBS has raised its gold price targets for March, June, and September 2026 from $5,000 to $6,200 per ounce, driven by stronger-than-expected demand [6]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a significant rally, nearing the $5,600 per ounce mark, driven by geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates [1][2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold has gained over 10% in just four sessions, reaching an all-time high of $5,595.44 [1][5]. - As of the latest check, gold spot is trading at $5,506.47, with technical resistance identified between $5,525 and $5,600 [5]. Group 2: ETF Performance - Five key gold ETFs have entered the top 10th percentile of momentum scores, indicating strong relative price strength and volatility [1][2]. - The ETFs include Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust, iShares Gold Trust, and VanEck Merk Gold ETF, all showing positive momentum across three critical timeframes [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% has lowered the opportunity cost for holding gold, reinforcing prolonged monetary support [2][3]. - Investors are increasingly moving towards tangible assets like gold due to rising geopolitical uncertainties, particularly tensions between the U.S. and Iran [3][4]. Group 4: Investor Outlook - The short-term outlook for gold is positive, with an upward trend observed over the last couple of months [5]. - The medium-term trend has also been sustained positively over the last couple of quarters, while the long-term outlook shows a sustained upward movement over the past year [5].