Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term outlook for precious metals is that they may experience wide - range oscillations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Precious Metals Market Conditions - COMEX gold futures fell 0.3% to $4189.6 per ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 0.41% to $53.825 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.02% at 946.90 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.29% to 12490 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of November 27, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, remained unchanged at 1045.43 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, also remained unchanged at 15582.33 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 86.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 13.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 67.3%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 9.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 23.1% [1]. - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes showed that the Governing Council's assessment of the inflation outlook remained largely unchanged; the outlook was still unclear, and this uncertainty could also be a reason to keep interest rates unchanged. Most members believed that the inflation outlook faced two - way risks [1]. Market Logic - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 216,000, slightly lower than the estimated 225,000, but the number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose slightly to 1.96 million, indicating increasing difficulty for the unemployed to find re - employment. - The US core PPI in September increased 2.6% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.7%; retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. ADP weekly data showed that private enterprises on average lost 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, more than the 2500 jobs lost per week shown in the previous update a week ago. - The latest weak economic data has kept the probability of a Fed rate cut in December above 80%. On November 27, the US dollar index fluctuated widely horizontally, closing at 99.55. Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated horizontally, and COMEX silver rose slightly. Precious metals may oscillate slightly more in the short term [1]. Trading Strategy - Precious metals may experience wide - range oscillations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Precious metals are expected to experience short - term wide - range fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Performance - COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4196.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.13% to $53.76 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.37% at 949.34 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.73% to 12450 yuan per kilogram [1]. 3.2 Important Information - As of November 26, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, were 1045.43 tons, an increase of 4.57 tons from the previous trading day. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, remained unchanged from the previous day at 15582.33 tons [1]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 84.9%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 15.1%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 66.4%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 11.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.6% [1]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 216,000, the lowest since the week of April 12, 2025. The forecast was 225,000, and the previous value was revised from 220,000 to 222,000. Although the number of initial jobless claims was stable, the number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week climbed slightly to 1.96 million, indicating that it is becoming more difficult for the unemployed to find new jobs [1]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity changed little during the more than one - month period covering the government shutdown. Tariff pressures squeezed corporate profits, AI suppressed some recruitment demand, and retailers reported that the government shutdown had a negative impact on consumption [1]. 3.3 Market Logic - The US core PPI in September increased 2.6% year - on - year, less than the expected 2.7% growth; the US retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month, lower than the market expectation of 0.4%. ADP weekly data showed that private enterprises reduced an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, more than the 2,500 jobs lost per week shown in the previous update a week ago. The latest weak economic data has increased the probability of a Fed rate cut in December. On November 26, the US dollar index fell and closed at 99.59. Overnight, COMEX gold fluctuated horizontally, while COMEX silver rose sharply. Precious metals may fluctuate slightly more in the short term [1].

Core Viewpoint - On November 20, COMEX gold futures experienced volatility, initially reaching $4,109 before dropping to $4,034 and then rebounding to around $4,068, indicating a lack of sustainable bullish factors in the market [1] Market Performance - As of November 19, the largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, saw an increase in holdings by 2.29 tons, bringing the total to 1,043.72 tons, ending a two-day outflow trend [1] - Gold-related ETFs showed mixed performance, with Huaxia Gold ETF (518850) down 0.53% and Gold Stock ETF (159562) down 0.66%, while Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650) rose by 0.17% [1] Market Sentiment - Everbright Futures noted a decrease in market bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, contributing to instability in U.S. stocks and subsequent fluctuations in gold prices [1] - The overall market sentiment suggests that gold prices may struggle to break free from high volatility and could trend weaker in the short term [1] Investment Strategy - Given the unclear future trajectory of gold prices, the recommendation is to adopt a wait-and-see approach or consider opportunistic buying on dips from an asset allocation perspective [1]

Gold prices have been under pressure in recent trading sessions, pressured by receding expectations for another U.S. interest-rate cut next month. Prices briefly slipped below $4,000 an ounce before trimming losses following a three-day slide, per Bloomberg, as mentioned on Yahoo Finance.Investors are awaiting key data delayed by the U.S. government shutdown, while several Federal Reserve officials warned against easing policy — though Governor Christopher Waller expressed his support for a cut. Meanwhile, ...

截至11月18日，全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为1041.43吨，较前一个交易日维持不变。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

I wrote " Good Leverage on Gold and Gold Miners " back in April this year about the WisdomTree Efficient Gold Plus Gold Miners Strategy Fund ETF ( GDMN ), and it has done exceptionally well since then. GDMN is one ofI manage portfolios and write about the world. Long signal, short noise. Macro strategist and investment advisor from Southern California. You can also find me on YouTube and Substack under my name; my weekly newsletter is called The Macro Obsession.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial lo ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in 2025, rising by 48% compared to the S&P 500's 17% increase, leading to contrasting opinions from prominent investors Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio regarding its value as an investment asset [2][15]. Investment Perspectives - Warren Buffett views gold as an "unproductive" asset, emphasizing its lack of utility and inability to generate revenue or earnings over time [2][4][5]. - Buffett argues that the total value of all above-ground gold is approximately $28 trillion, which could alternatively purchase the world's three largest companies (Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple) multiple times [3][4]. - Ray Dalio, in contrast, advocates for gold as a crucial asset for investors, particularly in light of rising national debt and inflation concerns, suggesting that investors should consider allocating up to 15% of their portfolios to gold [7][12]. Economic Context - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, with a budget deficit of $1.8 trillion for fiscal 2025, raising concerns about the sustainability of current fiscal policies [8][10]. - Dalio draws parallels between the current economic climate and the 1970s, when inflation and government spending led to a loss of confidence in paper currency, thus increasing the appeal of gold as a store of value [9][10]. Investment Strategy - While gold's recent performance is exceptional, its long-term compound annual return of 7.96% over the past 30 years is lower than the S&P 500's 10.6% return, suggesting that gold may not be the superior investment in a stable economic environment [15]. - In the event of a fiscal crisis, gold may attract significant investment inflows, making it a potentially valuable asset for risk management [16][17].

Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of a cooler than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) on investment strategies and market behavior, indicating a potential bullish trend in the stock market [4][9]. Economic Indicators - Headline CPI came in at 0.3%, compared to a consensus of 0.4% - Core CPI was reported at 0.2%, against a consensus of 0.3% [9] Market Trends - Positive money flows were observed in major stocks such as Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, while Tesla showed negative flows [6] - The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) also experienced positive money flows [6] Investment Strategies - The model suggests deploying cash due to favorable CPI data, with a 3% reduction in cash within the protection band [4] - Investors are advised to hold long-term positions while considering tactical trades and hedges based on individual risk preferences [9] Political Context - President Trump is optimistic about trade negotiations with China, particularly regarding soybeans and rare earth minerals, with a meeting scheduled with President Xi [9] - The upcoming FOMC meeting is expected to influence market sentiment, with a high probability of rate cuts in October (99%) and December (90%) [9] Market Sentiment - The article highlights a bullish sentiment in the market, with expectations of a year-end chase by money managers if the market trends upward [9] - The momo crowd is anticipated to buy ahead of the Fed rate decision, indicating a pattern that may repeat [9] Strategic Considerations - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between cash and investments, suggesting that a protection band of 0% indicates full investment, while 100% suggests a need for aggressive protection [10][11] - Investors are encouraged to think both strategically and tactically, as substantial risks remain, including high inflation and market valuations [9]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged over 55% year-to-date, surpassing $4,300 per ounce, but the market is currently experiencing a price pullback, leading to uncertainty among investors about the continuation of the bull run [1] Group 1: Market Drivers - The current gold market is driven by a structural shift towards hard assets, with gold being viewed as a crucial monetary asset amid currency debasement concerns [2] - Central banks are buying gold at a historic pace, adding 415 tons to their reserves in the first half of 2025, with countries like China and Poland diversifying their holdings [3] - Gold has overtaken the Euro to become the second-largest global reserve asset, providing a strong price floor [3] Group 2: Future Projections - Analysts from major institutions, including Bank of America, suggest that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce due to its re-evaluation as a monetary asset rather than just an inflation hedge [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors can gain exposure to gold through two primary strategies: direct price exposure via SPDR Gold Trust or leveraged growth through gold mining companies [5] - The SPDR Gold Trust is a physically-backed ETF with over $140 billion in assets under management, providing a straightforward option for tracking gold prices [6] - For higher returns, investing in gold mining companies like Newmont Corporation offers potential for amplified gains due to operational leverage [8][9] Group 4: Company Insights - Newmont Corporation reported a record $1.7 billion in quarterly free cash flow and maintains a low net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 0.1x, indicating strong financial health [11] - Newmont's management is focused on returning capital to shareholders, maintaining a quarterly dividend and authorizing a $3 billion share repurchase program [11] - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF provides diversification by holding a basket of leading mining companies, including Newmont and Barrick Gold, with nearly $24 billion in assets [12] Group 5: Market Sentiment - Recent market actions indicate strong investor conviction, with over $1.7 billion poured into the SPDR Gold Trust during a recent price pullback, suggesting that investors view the dip as a buying opportunity [10] - The fundamental case for gold is strengthened by ongoing central bank buying and concerns over fiat currency stability, making the recent price correction a strategic window for investors [13][14]

Core Insights - The gold sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the CSI Gold Industry Index rising by 1.70% and key stocks like Zhaojin Mining and Zijin Mining showing significant gains [1] - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a notable increase in both scale and shares, indicating growing investor interest and confidence in gold as a safe-haven asset [2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is contributing to economic uncertainty, which is further driving demand for gold and other precious metals [3] Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Gold Industry Index (931238) increased by 1.70%, with Zhaojin Mining (01818) up 4.13% and Zijin Mining (02899) up 3.82% [1] - The Gold Stock ETF (517520) rose by 1.91%, with a 10.48% increase over the past month [1][2] Group 2: Fund Flows and Investor Sentiment - The Gold Stock ETF has seen a scale increase of 320 million yuan over the past week, ranking it among the top in its category [2] - The ETF's shares reached a new high of 6.8 billion, reflecting strong investor interest [2] - Continuous net inflows into the Gold Stock ETF over the past eight days totaled 1.965 billion yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 583 million yuan [2] Group 3: Economic Context - The U.S. government shutdown has led to significant delays in economic data releases, increasing market uncertainty and boosting safe-haven demand for gold [3] - Political and economic concerns are identified as key drivers for the recent rebound in gold prices following a decline [3] - Expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen to 97%, further supporting gold prices [3]