说句实在话，现在这市场有点"魔幻"。 VIX指数低得快看不见了，黄金却疯涨到4500美元以上。 一边是"岁月静好"，一边是"末日警报"，到底谁在说真话？ 今天周叔就带大家拆解这场看似矛盾、实则暗流汹涌的金融大戏。 这些哪一点不危险？ 问题就出在这儿——VIX已经不再是"恐慌指数"，而是"控盘指数"。 大量机构通过做空波动率（比如卖出跨式期权）和高频交易超短期期权（甚至一天到期），人为压制市 场波动。 做市商在微幅震荡中"低买高卖"，形成一个自动稳定器，把任何风吹草动都熨平了。 VIX失灵？不是没风险，是风险被"压"住了 咱们先看数据：截至2026年1月初，VIX指数一度跌至13.6，创下近五年新低。 按常理，这说明美股风平浪静，投资者信心爆棚。 但现实呢？AI股估值高到离谱，美债规模突破38万亿美元，财政赤字像无底洞，美联储悄悄重启扩 表…… 黄金暴涨，是在替VIX"说实话" 那黄金为啥能一路冲上4533美元？因为它根本不信VIX那一套。 黄金看的是真实世界的"资产负债表"。 这不是市场没风险，而是风险被机械性地"藏"起来了。 周叔提醒一句：这种平静极其脆弱。 回看2024年12月，VIX同样处于历史低位，结 ...

其二，短期仍然需控制港股仓位，春节前后行情或更好。该行主要担心一月美股科技有回调风险，间接 影响港股。市场对一月中下旬美股科技财报仍持谨慎观察态度，投资者会对企业Capex和ROI会更为严 格。如不及预期，美股科技可能会有回调，港股科技反弹会受阻。 其三，港股从现在进入震荡上行期，仍需将红利作为底仓，把握上半年的科技成长行情。南向潜在增量 资金保险和固收+会继续增配价值红利。考虑估值，AH对比视角，南向资金整体会增配港股科技成长 股票，但港股科技行情仍会受海外降息节奏和美股科技行情影响，需动态观察。 美股：本周纳指领跌1.5%，道指下跌1.3%，标普下跌1.0%。行业上，能源、公用事业领涨，信息技 术、金融领跌。美国服务业及制造业PMI双放缓，但就业稳健及房地产回暖、AI全面加速落地、特朗 普暂缓部分关税征收，美股整体收跌。具体来看： 其一，美国PMI放缓，制造业和服务业双双低于预期。美国12月Markit综合PMI初值降至53，为六个月 来的最低水平，低于预期的53.9和前值54.2。其中，制造业PMI初值为51.8，创五个月新低；服务业PMI 初值为52.9，创六个月新低，两项均不及市场预期。12月的PM ...

Core Insights - Gold is expected to be the best-performing asset class in 2025, driven by four key factors that will also influence its price movements in 2026 [1] Group 1: Key Drivers of Gold Price - The two main macro drivers for gold's success in 2025 are geopolitical tensions and a generally weak US dollar along with moderate interest rate declines [2] - Central banks continue to be strong and stable net buyers of gold, although their purchasing pace has slowed compared to the past two years [2] - A balanced contribution from four main factors—economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity cost, and momentum—each accounting for approximately 10% of gold's performance [2] Group 2: Future Expectations and Economic Conditions - If the US economy shows a mild decline, it could lead to Federal Reserve rate cuts and further dollar weakness, potentially supporting gold prices by 5% to 15% [3] - In the event of significant economic deterioration, investment demand for gold could surge, with potential prices exceeding $5,000 per ounce [3] - The risk premium associated with gold may decrease if US economic policies yield positive results, potentially leading to a price drop of 5% to 20% [3] Group 3: Central Bank Demand and Recycling Risks - Strong central bank demand is influenced by macro and policy decisions, with continued buying expected to support gold prices [4] - A decline in central bank demand below 600 to 700 tons could exert pressure on future gold prices [4] - In India, gold jewelry is being used as collateral for loans, and an economic downturn could lead to forced liquidations, increasing supply and suppressing gold prices [5]

Core Viewpoint - The China Gold ETF (518850.SH) experienced a decline of 0.87% on December 29, 2025, while attracting significant net inflows of 41.27 million yuan from major investors, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [1] Group 1 - The latest trading volume for the China Gold ETF reached 95.78 million shares, with a total transaction value exceeding 920 million yuan, placing it in the top tier of the entire market [1]

Price Surge - The spot silver price reached a historic high of $58.8 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of over 100%, significantly outpacing gold's approximately 60% rise [1][3] - Gold also saw a notable increase, reaching $4264 per ounce, the highest in six weeks [1][3] - The gold-silver ratio has approached 70, the lowest since August 2021, indicating a strong performance of silver relative to gold [3] Supply Constraints - The primary factor supporting the surge in silver prices is a persistent supply shortage, with global silver inventories at a near 10-year low and experiencing a supply deficit for five consecutive years [5] - Silver stocks in London have decreased from 31,023 tons in June 2022 to 22,126 tons in March 2025, a decline of approximately one-third [5] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's silver inventory has also reached its lowest level in nearly a decade, exacerbating supply tightness [5] Demand Explosion - In contrast to the supply side, silver demand is experiencing a multifaceted surge, particularly in India, the largest consumer of silver, with an annual consumption of about 4000 tons [7] - Indian silver prices have soared to a historical high of 170,415 rupees per kilogram, reflecting an 85% increase since the beginning of the year [7] - Industrial demand for silver is growing significantly due to factors such as the electrification of vehicles, expansion of the AI industry, and increased demand for photovoltaics [7] Financial Attributes - Silver's financial characteristics are also playing a crucial role in its price surge, influenced by the Federal Reserve's policies [9] - Market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen to 85% due to soft U.S. economic data and dovish comments from officials [9] - Concerns over macroeconomic risks from Japan, including potential interest rate hikes, have led to fears of forced unwinding of carry trades, further impacting silver prices [9] Gold Linkage - The strong performance of silver is closely tied to the gold market, with global gold demand reaching 1206 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% year-on-year increase, marking the highest trading volume for Q1 since 2016 [11] - China's gold investment demand surged, with gold bar and coin investments rising to 124 tons, a 48% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 12% year-on-year increase [11] - Central banks continue to purchase gold, with a net increase of 244 tons in official gold reserves in Q1 2025, marking the 16th consecutive year of net gold purchases [11] Logical Transformation - The traditional pricing logic of gold is undergoing a fundamental change, with the correlation between gold prices and real U.S. interest rates weakening since 2022 [13] - The driving force behind rising gold prices is now the unprecedented scale of central bank gold purchases, averaging 1073 tons annually from 2022 to 2024, accounting for 23% of global gold demand [13] - This shift is influenced by geopolitical tensions and concerns over the credibility of the U.S. dollar, repositioning gold as a strategic monetary anchor and a hedge against geopolitical risks [13] Institutional Forecasts - In response to the strong surge in silver prices, several institutions have raised their price forecasts, with UBS predicting silver prices could reach $60 per ounce by 2026, and Solomon Global suggesting it may exceed $100 per ounce [15] - Market participants are showing optimism, as the cost differential between bullish and bearish silver options has surged to the highest level since 2022, indicating strong expectations for price increases [15] - The recent price movements are driven by speculation, attracting more capital into the silver market [15]

Core Viewpoint - As of November 18, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained its holdings at 1,041.43 tons, showing no change from the previous trading day [1] Group 1 - The SPDR Gold Trust is recognized as the largest gold ETF globally [1] - The current holding of 1,041.43 tons indicates stability in the ETF's assets [1] - The unchanged position from the previous trading day suggests a steady interest in gold investments [1]

Group 1 - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to multiple factors, including increased global economic uncertainty, rising geopolitical risks, and heightened market risk aversion, leading to a significant influx of funds into the gold market [3] - The fluctuation of the US dollar and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have made gold more attractive as an investment, further driving up its price [3] - Central banks around the world are steadily increasing their gold reserves, providing strong support for gold prices from the demand side [3] - There has been a noticeable net inflow of funds into gold ETFs, indicating a recovery in institutional investor confidence towards gold [3] Group 2 - For long-term investors, gold plays a crucial role in risk diversification within asset allocation, and it is advisable to consider gradual investments during price dips to achieve stable asset appreciation [4] - Short-term speculators should exercise caution as gold prices are currently at relatively high levels, and market volatility may increase, necessitating careful stop-loss strategies [4] Group 3 - There are two prevailing viewpoints regarding the future trajectory of gold prices: the optimistic perspective suggests that ongoing global economic uncertainty and central bank purchasing trends will sustain demand for gold, allowing for further price increases [5] - The cautious perspective warns that gold prices may have already priced in most favorable factors, and a strengthening dollar or improved market sentiment could lead to a withdrawal of funds from the gold market, resulting in potential price corrections [5] - Overall, while the long-term allocation value of gold remains, short-term volatility is expected, and investors should maintain a rational approach to avoid impulsive trading decisions [5] Group 4 - Investors interested in gold can participate through various means, including physical gold (such as bars and coins), which is suitable for long-term holding and has preservation and collectible value [6] - Other options include paper gold or gold ETFs, which offer convenience and liquidity, as well as gold stocks and funds that are influenced by individual stock and market factors, requiring investors to possess market analysis skills and risk tolerance [7]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced volatility with a significant drop during the US trading session, failing to maintain the 4000 mark due to various factors including Federal Reserve officials opposing a rate cut and reduced geopolitical risks [2][3]. Market Performance - Gold prices peaked at 4020-50 but faced resistance, leading to a drop [2]. - The current international gold price is reported at 4002, with domestic gold prices at 919.5 and 916.5 for different contracts [4]. Central Bank Activity - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive months in October, with daily trading volumes reaching historical highs [2]. - The People's Bank of China has been the largest buyer of gold among global central banks since 2022, indicating a trend in central bank purchases [3]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is showing a potential upward trend if it maintains above the support level of 3965, with resistance at 4083 [6]. - A head and shoulders bottom pattern is forming, suggesting a short-term upward movement [6]. - Caution is advised as the market may face challenges in sustaining upward momentum before 11 AM [7].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the largest single-day sell-off in twelve years, JPMorgan's commodity team remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for gold, while the quantitative team warns of short-term risks [1][5]. Group 1: Long-term Outlook - JPMorgan's global commodities research team has raised its average gold price forecast for Q4 2026 to $5,055 per ounce, with silver expected to reach $56 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1][4]. - The report indicates that the recent price correction is healthy and does not alter the view of a "structural bull market" for gold, as it follows a significant price increase of over 30% from mid-August [3][4]. - The core drivers of the recent gold price increase include substantial inflows into gold ETFs, with a total of 268 tons added and $33 billion in nominal inflows over the eight weeks leading up to October [3][4]. Group 2: Short-term Risks - The quantitative and derivatives strategy team at JPMorgan has highlighted a record short gamma imbalance in the gold ETF options market, indicating potential short-term volatility [2][5]. - The current price movement of gold is compared to the market conditions in 2006, where a similar rapid increase was followed by a significant correction of 30% [5]. - The report notes that the sentiment indicators and short-term implied volatility are at extreme levels, suggesting that the market is overheated and vulnerable to sharp reversals [5]. Group 3: Demand Factors - The report emphasizes that central bank purchases are expected to remain high, with an average of 760 tons per year over the next two years, which is crucial for supporting gold prices [4][8]. - Concerns are raised regarding jewelry demand, which has been negatively impacted by rising gold prices, with a 14% decline in weight terms despite a 21% increase in value terms in Q2 [9]. - The potential increase in recycled gold supply due to high prices could further pressure net jewelry demand, as a 10% increase in gold prices could lead to a theoretical annual reduction of 166 tons in net jewelry inventory [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting geopolitical tensions, expectations of monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve, and strong demand from both central banks and retail investors as key factors influencing gold prices. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, with the Trump administration imposing sanctions on Russian energy giants and planning to restrict software exports to China, raising economic concerns and increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold [2] - The market is pricing in a 98% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with historical data indicating an average gold price increase of 6% within 60 days of a rate cut announcement, supporting the bullish outlook for gold [3] - In Q3, gold ETFs saw record inflows of $26 billion, bringing total assets to $472 billion, while central banks and retail investors continue to buy gold, indicating strong long-term demand [4] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold has entered a consolidation phase after recent declines, with a small bullish candle indicating a potential reduction in short-term bearish momentum [6] - The short-term moving averages show a death cross, suggesting ongoing adjustment pressure, with key resistance at around $1,170 and support at the 20-day moving average near $1,050 [6] - The four-hour chart indicates that gold is likely in a corrective wave, with potential resistance levels at $1,193 and $1,238, while support levels to watch are $1,050 and $1,004 [8]