荷兰国际集团：黄金仍有进一步上涨的空间随着美国联邦政府关门停摆持续第二周，黄金价格突破4000美元/盎司。市场仍在消化降息预期，这将进一步利好黄金。政策不确定性以及对美联储宽松政策的押注不断增加，使得避险需求保持强劲。投资者正在快速增持黄金ETF。上周，黄金ETF持仓量再次扩张，使黄金ETF总持仓量达到2022年9月以来的最高水平。鉴于目前的持仓总量仍低于2020年的峰值，仍有进一步增持的空间。更多资金流入可能会进一步推高金价。展望未来，各国央行仍在持续买入黄金（尽管金价创历史新高），中国央行9月份仍连续第11个月增持黄金。特朗普贸易战仍在持续，地缘政治风险依然高涨，ETF持仓持续增加，而美联储进一步降息的预期也日益增强。所有这些都表明，黄金仍有进一步上涨的空间。 ...

9月29日，伦敦金现货价格盘中一度触及3819.81美元/盎司历史新高，突破3800美元/盎司关口。贵金属 市场全线飘红，伦敦银现货价格同样刷新历史新高，A股贵金属板块午后拉升。 机构人士认为，在美联储降息等因素的支撑下，金价中长期仍具上涨空间。瑞银财富管理投资总监办公 室（CIO）预测，到2026年年中，金价或达到3900美元/盎司。 ● 本报记者 葛瑶 本轮金价上行原因何在？中信建投宏观首席分析师周君芝认为，8月底以来，黄金打破今年5月之后的震 荡格局，出现趋势性上行行情，金融投资参与者或是本轮资金的主要来源。金融投资的市场参与者主要 包括黄金ETF投资者、全球央行以及期货的非商业多头持仓。 她表示，回溯2025年上半年黄金投资需求，二季度投资需求出现边际放缓，或是5月之后价格出现调整 的主要原因。进入下半年，黄金ETF投资在5月出现单月流出之后，6至8月连续三个月实现流入，总持 仓量持续反弹。同时，二季度，各经济体央行的购金需求保持在健康水平，达到166吨；而全球金饰消 费量同期则录得两位数跌幅。因此，机构认为，当前金价上涨主要由金融投资推动，而非私人消费或实 物投资。 从数据来看，9月以来黄金ETF的 ...

Core Insights - As of August 26, the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a gold holding of 959.92 tonnes, which represents an increase of 1.43 tonnes from the previous trading day [1]. Group 1 - The total gold holding of SPDR Gold Trust is 959.92 tonnes [1]. - The increase in gold holdings is 1.43 tonnes compared to the previous trading day [1].

Core Insights - Global gold demand, including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, is projected to increase by 3% year-on-year to 1,248.8 tons in Q2 2025, with a significant rise in value by 45% to $13.2 billion [1][6] - Central banks remain a major source of gold demand, although their purchases decreased by 21% to 166.5 tons in Q2 2025 [2][5] - The second quarter saw a 4% increase in gold recycling, reaching 347.2 tons [2] Supply and Demand Overview - Gold supply in Q2 2025 includes: - Gold mine production of 908.6 tons, a 1% increase year-on-year [4] - Total gold supply of 1,248.8 tons, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [4] - Gold demand breakdown for Q2 2025: - Jewelry consumption decreased by 14% to 341.0 tons, the lowest since Q3 2020 [5] - Investment demand surged by 78%, with bar demand increasing by 21% [5][6] - Total gold demand reached 1,079.0 tons, a 10% year-on-year increase [4] Market Trends - The long-term trend of central banks reallocating assets from U.S. assets to gold remains unchanged, despite a downward revision in expected central bank purchases for the year [5] - The potential for further increases in gold ETFs is noted, driven by significant inflows in the first half of the year [5]

#行情 上证综指已较4月7日（特朗普宣布“解放日”关税）行情低位反弹20%，势将进入技术性牛市。 https://t.co/6vF1V2A2t9外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):彭博汇编的数据反映中国投资者正将资金从黄金ETF转向国内股票。随着A股走强和金价升势停滞，7月份四大境内黄金ETF（华安易富、博时黄金、易方达黄金和国泰君安）合计净流出约32亿元，势创历史单月最大纪录。 https://t.co/YruiutiK5Z ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing decline in gold prices, which are currently fluctuating above $3,280, influenced by strong U.S. non-farm data that dampens expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and supports the dollar [1] - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting he should resign if allegations of misleading Congress regarding the Fed's headquarters renovation are true, emphasizing the need for a chairman who would support rate cuts [2] - The World Gold Council reported a significant increase in global gold ETFs, with a total asset management increase of $38 billion in the first half of the year, driven by strong performance in June [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, with key resistance levels at $3,310 and $3,320, while support levels are identified at $3,287 and $3,270 [5] - The daily chart shows that after a rebound, gold prices are facing resistance and continuing a downward trend, with indicators suggesting a bearish outlook in the short term [4][5] - The average trading volume for gold reached a record high of $329 billion per day in the first half of the year, reflecting increased market activity [3]

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 165.60 points, or 0.37%, closing at 44,240.76 [2] - The Nasdaq increased slightly by 5.94 points, or 0.03%, closing at 20,418.46 [2] - The S&P 500 fell by 4.46 points, or 0.07%, ending at 6,225.52 [2] - European markets showed positive performance, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up by 30.41 points, or 0.57%, and the UK FTSE 100 rising by 47.65 points, or 0.54% [2] - Asian markets had mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 260.24 points, or 1.09%, while the Taiwan Weighted Index fell by 66.45 points, or 0.30% [2] Trade Policy Developments - President Trump announced new trade agreements, including a proposed 50% tariff on imported copper, which led to a significant increase in copper prices by 17% [3] - A high tariff of up to 200% on pharmaceuticals is also expected, with a grace period of 18 months for companies to adjust their supply chains [3] - Trump emphasized that tariffs will officially take effect on August 1, 2025, with no possibility of delay [4] Economic Commentary - Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, suggesting that the current economic conditions warrant a rate cut, citing a study indicating tariffs have no impact on inflation [5] AI Adoption in Japan - Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that only about 27% of the population has used generative AI services, indicating a lag in AI research and application [6] Global Trade Outlook - The UN Conference on Trade and Development reported that global trade is expected to grow by approximately $300 billion in the first half of 2025, with a projected acceleration in growth rates [7][8] - The report highlighted that ongoing policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions pose risks to trade stability [8] Gold Market Insights - The World Gold Council reported a $38 billion increase in global gold ETFs in the first half of the year, driven by strong performance in June [9] Corporate Leadership Changes - Apple announced that COO Jeff Williams will retire, with Sabih Khan set to take over the role, marking a significant leadership transition within the company [10] Talent Acquisition in Tech - Meta has successfully recruited Ruoming Pang, the head of Apple's foundational models team, to lead its new "Superintelligence Lab," indicating a strategic move to bolster its AI capabilities [13] SpaceX Valuation - SpaceX is reportedly discussing plans to raise funds, with its valuation expected to reach approximately $400 billion, significantly higher than its previous valuation of $350 billion [14] Investment in Smart Glasses - Meta has invested $3.5 billion in EssilorLuxottica, aiming to strengthen its position in the smart glasses market [15] Boeing's Delivery Performance - Boeing reported delivering 150 aircraft in the second quarter of 2025, the highest number for that period since 2018, with a total of 280 aircraft delivered year-to-date [16][17]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 黄金关注驱动博弈，白银谨慎对待 投资观点： -- 报告日期 2025-6-30 半年度报告 ⚫ 核心观点 黄金：中长期上涨趋势不变，但中短期驱动存在博弈。从长期 视角来看，特朗普对"外加征关税+对内减税"的政策组合将会继续 推升美国联邦政府债务规模，加剧美元信用长期走弱风险，叠加美 联储降息临近、全球地缘局势复杂、全球央行购金延续等，金价中 枢中长期上行趋势不变。但在经历了上半年波澜壮阔的行情后，黄 金中短期的驱动开始存在博弈。主要体现在：（1）在当下美国经济 尚未陷入衰退背景下，下半年关税政策谈判结果及实施和对内税改 法案推行对美国经济的相互对冲程度，市场将博弈美国经济滞胀 OR 中性偏弱，从而对金价运行节奏构成影响。（2）当前美国就业相对 稳健、通胀相对温和，但关税对通胀的滞后性影响仍存，因此我们 认为在评估完夏季数据前，美联储很难调整货币政策立场。降息预 期料将继续支撑贵金属，但时点或偏晚以及空间或有限下，则仍会 掣肘金价的短期上行空间。（3）尽管"去美元化"的宏大叙事将会 继续压制美元指数，但考虑到美元与美债收益率的背离以及美国相 对欧日经济增速差或仍然 ...

Group 1 - The State Council's executive meeting emphasized the importance of constructing a new model for real estate development to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality growth in the real estate market, focusing on long-term strategies and systematic policy support [3] - Guangzhou plans to optimize real estate policies by fully canceling purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price limits, while also lowering down payment ratios and interest rates to better meet housing consumption needs [4] - The People's Bank of China announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of six months [5] Group 2 - In May, new RMB deposits exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with experts attributing the differences in deposit and loan growth to the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission published the "Procedures for Programmatic Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)," which will take effect on October 9, 2025, to enhance the regulation of programmatic trading [29] - The State Council meeting reviewed measures to optimize the collection of drugs and medical supplies, aiming to promote standardized and institutionalized procurement practices [34] Group 3 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address the prevention and governance of telecom network fraud, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to tackle the issue [35] - The market supervision authority announced ongoing efforts to strengthen the recall of defective consumer goods sold online, ensuring consumer rights and market order [37] - Nezha Automobile has officially entered bankruptcy reorganization procedures, indicating a significant development in the company's financial status [38][39]

Financial Data - In May, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year; new RMB loans were nearly 620 billion yuan [2] - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but up 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year [2] Regulatory Updates - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Procedures for the Management of Program Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)," which mandates regular checks on program traders' reported information, focusing on high-frequency traders [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that CATL's H-shares will be included in the southbound trading list of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from the next trading day [2] Industry Oversight - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized increased antitrust enforcement in the pharmaceutical sector to protect public health and ensure affordable medication [3] - A joint notice from 14 ministries outlined key points for correcting misconduct in the pharmaceutical sales and medical services sectors, focusing on enhancing regulatory responsibilities and addressing corruption [4] Market Measures - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued a notice urging market participants to implement risk control measures amid volatile international conditions [5] - The Beijing Stock Exchange extended the exemption from transaction fees for bond trading until December 31, 2026 [7] Company News - Huayang New Materials announced it is not involved in the rare earth permanent magnet sector [7] - China National Petroleum Engineering signed a contract worth 1.601 billion USD for the Atawi GPP project [7] - Cheng Tian Wei Ye highlighted risks related to the commercialization of new technologies and products [7] - Honghui Fruits and Vegetables will have its controlling shareholder change to Shenze Ruitai and will resume trading on June 16 [7] - Zhuhai International Electric Power signed two strategic cooperation agreements for solar projects in Zambia [7] - Pan-Asia Micro-Optics plans to establish a subsidiary in Changzhou to enhance its medical application layout [8] - Dongshan Precision intends to invest up to 5.935 billion yuan in Solstice Optoelectronics to expand its optical communication layout [8]