Core Insights - Global gold demand, including over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, is projected to increase by 3% year-on-year to 1,248.8 tons in Q2 2025, with a significant rise in value by 45% to $13.2 billion [1][6] - Central banks remain a major source of gold demand, although their purchases decreased by 21% to 166.5 tons in Q2 2025 [2][5] - The second quarter saw a 4% increase in gold recycling, reaching 347.2 tons [2] Supply and Demand Overview - Gold supply in Q2 2025 includes: - Gold mine production of 908.6 tons, a 1% increase year-on-year [4] - Total gold supply of 1,248.8 tons, reflecting a 3% year-on-year increase [4] - Gold demand breakdown for Q2 2025: - Jewelry consumption decreased by 14% to 341.0 tons, the lowest since Q3 2020 [5] - Investment demand surged by 78%, with bar demand increasing by 21% [5][6] - Total gold demand reached 1,079.0 tons, a 10% year-on-year increase [4] Market Trends - The long-term trend of central banks reallocating assets from U.S. assets to gold remains unchanged, despite a downward revision in expected central bank purchases for the year [5] - The potential for further increases in gold ETFs is noted, driven by significant inflows in the first half of the year [5]

#行情 上证综指已较4月7日（特朗普宣布“解放日”关税）行情低位反弹20%，势将进入技术性牛市。 https://t.co/6vF1V2A2t9外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):彭博汇编的数据反映中国投资者正将资金从黄金ETF转向国内股票。随着A股走强和金价升势停滞，7月份四大境内黄金ETF（华安易富、博时黄金、易方达黄金和国泰君安）合计净流出约32亿元，势创历史单月最大纪录。 https://t.co/YruiutiK5Z ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the ongoing decline in gold prices, which are currently fluctuating above $3,280, influenced by strong U.S. non-farm data that dampens expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and supports the dollar [1] - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting he should resign if allegations of misleading Congress regarding the Fed's headquarters renovation are true, emphasizing the need for a chairman who would support rate cuts [2] - The World Gold Council reported a significant increase in global gold ETFs, with a total asset management increase of $38 billion in the first half of the year, driven by strong performance in June [3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend, with key resistance levels at $3,310 and $3,320, while support levels are identified at $3,287 and $3,270 [5] - The daily chart shows that after a rebound, gold prices are facing resistance and continuing a downward trend, with indicators suggesting a bearish outlook in the short term [4][5] - The average trading volume for gold reached a record high of $329 billion per day in the first half of the year, reflecting increased market activity [3]

| 市场 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 欧美 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 44240.76 | -165.60 | -0.37% | | | 纳斯达克 | 20418.46 | 5.94 | 0.03% | | | 标普500 | 6225.52 | -4.46 | -0.07% | | | 欧洲斯托克50 | 5371.95 | 30.41 | 0.57% | | | 英国富时100 | 8854.18 | 47.65 | 0.54% | | | 法国CAC40 | 7766.71 | 43.24 | 0.56% | | | 德国DAX30 | 24206.91 | 133.24 | 0.55% | | | 俄罗斯RTS 上证指数 | 1110.51 3497.48 | 7.54 24.35 | 0.68% 0.70% | | | | | | 2.39% | | | 深证成指 区 创业板指 | 10588.39 | 152.88 2181.08 . 898 50.89 0 m | 1.46% | | | 恒生指数 | 24148 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 黄金关注驱动博弈，白银谨慎对待 投资观点： -- 报告日期 2025-6-30 半年度报告 ⚫ 核心观点 黄金：中长期上涨趋势不变，但中短期驱动存在博弈。从长期 视角来看，特朗普对"外加征关税+对内减税"的政策组合将会继续 推升美国联邦政府债务规模，加剧美元信用长期走弱风险，叠加美 联储降息临近、全球地缘局势复杂、全球央行购金延续等，金价中 枢中长期上行趋势不变。但在经历了上半年波澜壮阔的行情后，黄 金中短期的驱动开始存在博弈。主要体现在：（1）在当下美国经济 尚未陷入衰退背景下，下半年关税政策谈判结果及实施和对内税改 法案推行对美国经济的相互对冲程度，市场将博弈美国经济滞胀 OR 中性偏弱，从而对金价运行节奏构成影响。（2）当前美国就业相对 稳健、通胀相对温和，但关税对通胀的滞后性影响仍存，因此我们 认为在评估完夏季数据前，美联储很难调整货币政策立场。降息预 期料将继续支撑贵金属，但时点或偏晚以及空间或有限下，则仍会 掣肘金价的短期上行空间。（3）尽管"去美元化"的宏大叙事将会 继续压制美元指数，但考虑到美元与美债收益率的背离以及美国相 对欧日经济增速差或仍然 ...

Group 1 - The State Council's executive meeting emphasized the importance of constructing a new model for real estate development to promote stable, healthy, and high-quality growth in the real estate market, focusing on long-term strategies and systematic policy support [3] - Guangzhou plans to optimize real estate policies by fully canceling purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and price limits, while also lowering down payment ratios and interest rates to better meet housing consumption needs [4] - The People's Bank of China announced a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, with a term of six months [5] Group 2 - In May, new RMB deposits exceeded 2 trillion yuan, with experts attributing the differences in deposit and loan growth to the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [6] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission published the "Procedures for Programmatic Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)," which will take effect on October 9, 2025, to enhance the regulation of programmatic trading [29] - The State Council meeting reviewed measures to optimize the collection of drugs and medical supplies, aiming to promote standardized and institutionalized procurement practices [34] Group 3 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to address the prevention and governance of telecom network fraud, emphasizing a comprehensive approach to tackle the issue [35] - The market supervision authority announced ongoing efforts to strengthen the recall of defective consumer goods sold online, ensuring consumer rights and market order [37] - Nezha Automobile has officially entered bankruptcy reorganization procedures, indicating a significant development in the company's financial status [38][39]

Financial Data - In May, the social financing increment was 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year; new RMB loans were nearly 620 billion yuan [2] - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but up 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year [2] Regulatory Updates - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the "Procedures for the Management of Program Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)," which mandates regular checks on program traders' reported information, focusing on high-frequency traders [2] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that CATL's H-shares will be included in the southbound trading list of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, effective from the next trading day [2] Industry Oversight - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized increased antitrust enforcement in the pharmaceutical sector to protect public health and ensure affordable medication [3] - A joint notice from 14 ministries outlined key points for correcting misconduct in the pharmaceutical sales and medical services sectors, focusing on enhancing regulatory responsibilities and addressing corruption [4] Market Measures - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange issued a notice urging market participants to implement risk control measures amid volatile international conditions [5] - The Beijing Stock Exchange extended the exemption from transaction fees for bond trading until December 31, 2026 [7] Company News - Huayang New Materials announced it is not involved in the rare earth permanent magnet sector [7] - China National Petroleum Engineering signed a contract worth 1.601 billion USD for the Atawi GPP project [7] - Cheng Tian Wei Ye highlighted risks related to the commercialization of new technologies and products [7] - Honghui Fruits and Vegetables will have its controlling shareholder change to Shenze Ruitai and will resume trading on June 16 [7] - Zhuhai International Electric Power signed two strategic cooperation agreements for solar projects in Zambia [7] - Pan-Asia Micro-Optics plans to establish a subsidiary in Changzhou to enhance its medical application layout [8] - Dongshan Precision intends to invest up to 5.935 billion yuan in Solstice Optoelectronics to expand its optical communication layout [8]

Core Insights - Bitcoin price surpassed $110,000 in May 2025, equivalent to approximately 800,000 RMB, marking a historical high and raising questions about its value and nature [1][3] Group 1: Bitcoin Fundamentals - Bitcoin was created in 2009 by the pseudonymous Satoshi Nakamoto and operates on a decentralized blockchain technology, which allows for secure and unalterable transaction records [1][3] - The total supply of Bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins, giving it an anti-inflationary characteristic, leading some to refer to it as "digital gold" [1][3] Group 2: Price Surge Drivers - U.S. policy developments, particularly the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, have injected liquidity into the digital currency market, encouraging institutional investment [3] - Companies, including Strategy, have accumulated over $50 billion in Bitcoin, increasing market demand [3] - Rising macroeconomic risks, such as the U.S. debt crisis and geopolitical tensions, have led investors to view Bitcoin as a hedge, decoupling its price movements from traditional assets like gold [3] Group 3: Mining Challenges - Mining Bitcoin requires significant computational power, with a high-end home computer yielding only 0.0018 Bitcoin per day, necessitating 556 days to mine a single coin [5] - The cost of electricity for mining can exceed the value of the Bitcoin mined, making it economically unfeasible for average individuals [6] Group 4: Regulatory Landscape in China - China has banned Bitcoin mining due to its high energy consumption, which contradicts the country's carbon reduction goals [9] - The financial risks associated with Bitcoin's price volatility and its use in illicit activities have led to stringent regulations [9] Group 5: Future Outlook - Predictions for Bitcoin's price by the end of 2025 range from $150,000 to $200,000, but these projections come with significant risks related to policy changes and market competition [11] - The narrative surrounding Bitcoin reflects both a technological revolution and a speculative market, suggesting that for most individuals, the dream of quick wealth is unrealistic [11]

注:ETF持仓数据于北京时间周二至周六凌晨5点30分左右更新,数据为上 一日的持仓情况。 @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 全球最大的黄金ETF SPDR Gold Trust持仓量为936.51吨，较前一个交易日维持不变。 2025-04-29 +0.86吨 -2.29吨 2025-04-25 2025-04-24 -0.58吨 +1.44吨 2025-04-23 2025-04-22 -11.47吨 0 -9 3 -6 -3 增仓 减仓 -12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]