上 市 公 司 2025 年 06 月 30 日 赤子城科技 (09911) ——社交先锋，淘金中东 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.83 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8678.3 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 11.50/2.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 138.96 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,412.18 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0966 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -43% 457% 07/02 08/02 09/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 01/02 02/02 03/02 04/02 05/02 06/02 资料来源：Bloomberg HSCEI 赤子城科技 公 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵航 (8621)23297818× zhaohan ...

Investment Highlights - The company is initiating coverage on Zhizi City Technology (09911) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 11.30, based on a 14x Non-IFRS P/E valuation for 2025, implying a 2x P/S valuation for 2025 [1] - The company has launched dozens of applications and casual games in the social and gaming sectors, serving over 1 billion users across more than 100 countries and regions, with a focus on the Middle East and North Africa while actively expanding into Southeast Asia, Europe, and Japan [1] Market Opportunity - The global social application market is expected to grow from USD 61 billion in 2023 to over USD 300 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 26%, indicating a healthy growth environment for overseas entertainment social platforms [1] - The company believes that smaller platforms with cultural depth can seize structural opportunities due to the limitations faced by major players amid geopolitical tensions [1] Product Matrix and Business Strategy - The company has strengthened its core business through the acquisition of Mico World, diversifying into niche social segments while maintaining a "bush" strategy that enhances commercialization efficiency [2] - The company expects MICO and YoHo to enter a mature phase, contributing stable cash flow, while SUGO and TopTop are anticipated to support revenue growth [2] Global Expansion and Innovation - The company has positioned the Middle East and North Africa as a long-term strategic region, contributing over 50% of its social revenue, and plans to deepen its presence in high ARPU markets in Europe and the U.S. [3] - The company estimates that several products in the growth phase will contribute approximately 10% of social revenue in 2024, supporting future performance breakthroughs [3] - The company anticipates that marketing expenses may remain high in the short term but expects operational leverage to gradually improve as customer acquisition efficiency increases [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company projects EPS of 0.8 CNY and 1.0 CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of 54% [3] - The initial coverage gives an "outperform" rating based on a 14x Non-IFRS P/E for 2025, with a target price of HKD 11.30, representing a 20% upside from current trading levels [3]

机构：西牛证券 研究员：敖晓风 中東地緣政治升溫導致宏觀市場有所轉變 未能控制營銷費用 未能複製Alice's Dream 成功的經驗至其他精品遊戲 香港設立全球總部: 利用香港的國際化商業環境、成熟的資本市場和頂尖人才資源，赤子城科技 (09911.HK)在香港設立了全球總部和人工智能研究中心，旨在深化人工智能在業務運營中的應用，使公 司在行業中保持優勢。 有利的環境與強勁增長潛力帶來的重估: 赤子城科技(09911.HK)在收入和歸屬股東應佔溢利上都取得相 當穩健的成長。Sugo、TopTop、Blued 等產品以及精品遊戲有望繼續增長，為股東帶來可觀回報。集團 充裕現金儲備亦使其能夠收購如藍城兄弟般具潛力的企業。同時，鑑於中國企業的估值得到修復，無風 險利率達到峰值的預期亦有利於集團的估值獲得重估。我們相信，該等宏觀因素加上公司的強勁增長前 景將能夠提高其估值。因此，我們將目標價格修訂為每股12.90 港元，並維持買入評級。 風險因素 Sugo、TopTop 強勁的表現未能維持 社交業務表現亮眼: 2025 年第一季度，赤子城科技(09911.HK)的社交業務收入同比增長39.1%至44.3%。 得益於 ...

赤子城科技 20250616 Q&A 赤子城科技的发展历程及其主要业务模式是什么？ 赤子城科技自 2010 年开始涉足海外市场，最初专注于工具型桌面启动器和移 动广告平台。2019 年，公司完成了对米可世界的投资，并在 2020 年将其并 表。米可世界旗下拥有多款社交应用，推动公司进入社交发展的快速增长期。 2022 年，公司完成了对蓝城兄弟的私有化，将这一稀缺资产纳入母公司报表， 并通过开拓多人人群社交和泛人群社交产品开启新的增长曲线。目前，公司收 入主要分为两大块：社交业务和创新业务。2024 年，社交业务收入达到 46 亿 元，占总收入的 91%，过去三年的复合增长率保持在 30%以上。创新业务包 括游戏产品和蓝城兄弟的社交电商，收入占比不到 10%，复合增长率约为 20%。 赤子城科技的股权结构及财务表现如何？ 摘要 赤子城科技 2024 年社交业务收入达 46 亿元，占总收入 91%，过去三 年复合增长率超 30%；创新业务收入占比不到 10%，复合增长率约 20%，公司整体收入增长 54%。 创始人刘总及其一致行动人持股约 24%，管理层及高管持股约 40%， 董事长持续增持并实施股权激励，彰显对 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Guohai Securities initiates coverage on Zhibo City Technology with a "Buy" rating, projecting a target market value of 16.6 billion RMB by 2025, corresponding to a target price of 13 HKD [1][7] - The global social media account count is expected to reach 5.04 billion by January 2024, representing 62.3% of the global population, indicating strong market penetration [2] - The global social networking market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.2%, exceeding 300 billion USD by 2030 [2] Group 2: Market Position and Product Matrix - Zhibo City Technology maintains a leading position in various segments of the social market, with SUGO ranking third globally in the audio/voice social sector and TopTop ranking third in the gaming social sector [4] - The Middle East is identified as a lucrative market for online entertainment due to high GDP and limited offline entertainment options, with Zhibo City Technology's MICO becoming a mainstream social platform in the region [4][6] - The company has established a strong foothold in North America, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, leveraging its products to expand rapidly in favorable market conditions [4] Group 3: Business Capabilities and Financial Projections - Zhibo City Technology's competitive advantage stems from localized product operations, understanding of niche markets, and a multi-country, multi-product strategy that reduces marginal costs and mitigates market risks [6] - The company anticipates revenue growth from its products, with SUGO expected to generate 10 million USD monthly by 2024 and TopTop's monthly revenue projected to increase from 5 million USD to over 10 million USD by the end of 2025 [6][7] - Financial forecasts indicate revenues of 6.6 billion RMB, 8.3 billion RMB, and 10.3 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 980 million RMB, 1.34 billion RMB, and 1.78 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [7]

2004 年，三个大二学生带着他们尚处于雏形阶段的大学社交网站进军硅谷。这个网站只在几个大学校园内运行。它没有占据市场领导地位，甚至不是首 个出现的大学社交网站；其他公司早就推出了这种服务，而且功能更齐全。网站当时只有 15 万注册用户，几乎没有收入。但在那年夏天，他们筹集到了 第一笔 50 万美元的创业资金。不到一年后，他们又另外筹到了 1270 万美元。 Facebook 的故事如今举世皆知。20 年后的今天，还会不会再出现一款超级现象级的社交产品？或者传统社交产品必将走向落寞？ 眼看他起高楼，眼看他楼塌？ 前两天看了一篇文章，叫《时代变了，互联网不再需要陌生人社交》。笔者感慨万千，认同的是陌生人社交确实已经走到了一个十字路口的位置，不认同 的是这篇文章的作者对"陌生人社交"并没有深入理解。如果看这篇文章的你也没有特别深入了解陌生人社交，可以翻阅社交产品笔记早期的文章，里面详 细解释了"为什么要社交"。 事实上，从疫情开始的火爆到疫情后的落寞，陌生人社交市场的的确确开始逐渐消失在非游应用的 Top 榜单上？ 根据 SensorTower 的最新榜单数据，2025 年 4 月海外非游应用收入排行榜上，只有近 ...

6月5日，赤子城科技全球总部启动仪式在中国香港举行。香港特区政府引进重点企业办公室副主任蒋学礼博士、香港科技园公司企业发展总监温宝玲，以及 赤子城科技董事长刘春河、高级副总裁宋朋亮、副总裁郑林州及副总裁余欣出席活动。 赤子城科技以子公司Solo X Technology Limited的名义进驻香港科学园。赤子城科技董事长刘春河表示，"香港拥有国际化的营商环境、成熟的资本市场，以 及顶级的人才资源。而今天，赤子城科技全球总部正式落地香港，标志着公司的全球化战略迈入新的阶段，是公司发展的重要里程碑。" 赤子城科技创立于2009年，2013年开启全球化之路，2019年于港交所主板上市。赤子城科技始终坚持全球化战略，目前，公司已在中东、东南亚等市场建立 了20多个运营中心，旗下MICO、YoHo、TopTop、SUGO、Alice's Dream: Merge Games 等产品进入了全球150多个国家和地区。 赤子城科技高级副总裁宋朋亮先生 在启动仪式上，赤子城科技高级副总裁宋朋亮分享了公司在中国香港的布局思路。"在香港，我们将重点布局两大方向，第一个方向是探索人工智能在社交 娱乐业务场景中的深度应用；第二个方向 ...

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the overseas internet population dividend and the high growth trend of audio and video social networking, continuously exploring niche market demands and expanding its product matrix to initiate a new growth cycle [1] - Key insight 1: The company's core business advantages include strong organizational capabilities, deep local product operations, a multi-country and multi-product strategy that allows for low marginal costs and rapid iteration, and a diverse product offering that meets various emotional value needs across different social scenarios [1] - Key insight 2: The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers is a rare asset, and the launch of the HeeSay brand overseas aims to tap into the growing LGBTQ market, with the company’s product Blued maintaining a leading position in the domestic LGBTQ social sector [1] Group 2 - Key insight 3: The global casual gaming market is expanding, with the company’s flagship game "Alice's Dream: Merge Island" projected to achieve a 60% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024 and potentially become profitable by the fourth quarter of 2024 [2] - Key insight 4: The company has several mobile games in the pipeline, which are expected to contribute additional revenue in the latter half of the year [2] - Financial forecast: The company’s revenue and profit are expected to steadily increase, with projected revenues of 6.6 billion, 8.3 billion, and 10.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and corresponding net profits of 980 million, 1.34 billion, and 1.78 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in overseas social networking, leveraging a diverse product matrix to capture global opportunities [8]. - The report highlights the company's stable core business in social networking, with strong growth potential from late-stage products [8]. - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers is noted as a strategic move to tap into the growing LGBTQ market, with the launch of the HeeSay brand aimed at expanding into Southeast Asia and Western markets [9]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the casual gaming sector, with a notable increase in revenue from its flagship game [10]. Company Overview - The company has a decade-long history of development, combining self-developed and acquired products to build a diverse product matrix [14][15]. - The business model is divided into two main segments: social business and innovative business, with social business contributing the majority of revenue [17]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 6.628 billion in 2025, 8.297 billion in 2026, and 10.274 billion in 2027 [6]. - The company expects a rebound in net profit, forecasting 980 million in 2025, 1.335 billion in 2026, and 1.774 billion in 2027 [6]. - The adjusted EBITDA is also anticipated to rise, with projections of 1.319 billion in 2025 and 1.739 billion in 2026 [6]. Market Position - The global social application market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company focusing on localized operations and a multi-modal product strategy to meet diverse user needs [36][41]. - The report indicates that the company has a strong understanding of local markets, which enhances its operational effectiveness [56]. Product Strategy - The company has developed a multi-product strategy that allows for rapid iteration and testing, reducing marginal costs and diversifying market risk [57]. - Key products include MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO, each targeting different social interaction needs [8][9]. Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the LGBTQ social networking space, particularly through the HeeSay brand [9]. - The casual gaming segment is also highlighted as a promising area, with expectations for continued revenue growth from new game releases [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on its strong performance and growth potential [10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.09 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.92%. The social business revenue reached 4.63 billion RMB, growing by 58.1%, while the innovative business revenue was 460 million RMB, up by 21.3% [1][2]. - The operating profit was 729 million RMB, an increase of 32.3%, and the adjusted EBITDA was 963 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 42.8% [1]. - The company expects to record a revenue of approximately 1.5 to 1.57 billion RMB in Q1 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of about 41.5% to 48.1% [2]. Summary by Sections Social Business Performance - The social business continues to show robust growth, with a revenue of 4.63 billion RMB in 2024, up 58.1%. Key products like MICO and YoHo are contributing significantly, while the new product SUGO has seen revenue growth exceeding 200% [3]. - The average monthly active users (MAU) for the social business reached 32.835 million in Q1 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [3]. Innovative Business Development - The innovative business, particularly in premium games, has shown significant growth, with total revenue exceeding 705 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of over 80%. The flagship game "Alice's Dream: Merge Games" has also performed well [3]. - The social e-commerce segment has experienced revenue growth exceeding 200% and profit growth over 600% [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain high growth in its social and gaming products, with new products in development. The acquisition of remaining shares in NBT Social Networking is anticipated to further enhance profits in 2025 [5]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 903 million, 1.12 billion, and 1.38 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 88.1%, 23.9%, and 23.3% respectively [5].