上 市 公 司 2025 年 06 月 30 日 赤子城科技 (09911) ——社交先锋，淘金中东 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.83 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8678.3 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 11.50/2.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 138.96 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,412.18 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0966 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -43% 457% 07/02 08/02 09/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 01/02 02/02 03/02 04/02 05/02 06/02 资料来源：Bloomberg HSCEI 赤子城科技 公 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵航 (8621)23297818× zhaohan ...

机构：西牛证券 研究员：敖晓风 中東地緣政治升溫導致宏觀市場有所轉變 未能控制營銷費用 未能複製Alice's Dream 成功的經驗至其他精品遊戲 香港設立全球總部: 利用香港的國際化商業環境、成熟的資本市場和頂尖人才資源，赤子城科技 (09911.HK)在香港設立了全球總部和人工智能研究中心，旨在深化人工智能在業務運營中的應用，使公 司在行業中保持優勢。 有利的環境與強勁增長潛力帶來的重估: 赤子城科技(09911.HK)在收入和歸屬股東應佔溢利上都取得相 當穩健的成長。Sugo、TopTop、Blued 等產品以及精品遊戲有望繼續增長，為股東帶來可觀回報。集團 充裕現金儲備亦使其能夠收購如藍城兄弟般具潛力的企業。同時，鑑於中國企業的估值得到修復，無風 險利率達到峰值的預期亦有利於集團的估值獲得重估。我們相信，該等宏觀因素加上公司的強勁增長前 景將能夠提高其估值。因此，我們將目標價格修訂為每股12.90 港元，並維持買入評級。 風險因素 Sugo、TopTop 強勁的表現未能維持 社交業務表現亮眼: 2025 年第一季度，赤子城科技(09911.HK)的社交業務收入同比增長39.1%至44.3%。 得益於 ...

赤子城科技 20250616 Q&A 赤子城科技的发展历程及其主要业务模式是什么？ 赤子城科技自 2010 年开始涉足海外市场，最初专注于工具型桌面启动器和移 动广告平台。2019 年，公司完成了对米可世界的投资，并在 2020 年将其并 表。米可世界旗下拥有多款社交应用，推动公司进入社交发展的快速增长期。 2022 年，公司完成了对蓝城兄弟的私有化，将这一稀缺资产纳入母公司报表， 并通过开拓多人人群社交和泛人群社交产品开启新的增长曲线。目前，公司收 入主要分为两大块：社交业务和创新业务。2024 年，社交业务收入达到 46 亿 元，占总收入的 91%，过去三年的复合增长率保持在 30%以上。创新业务包 括游戏产品和蓝城兄弟的社交电商，收入占比不到 10%，复合增长率约为 20%。 赤子城科技的股权结构及财务表现如何？ 摘要 赤子城科技 2024 年社交业务收入达 46 亿元，占总收入 91%，过去三 年复合增长率超 30%；创新业务收入占比不到 10%，复合增长率约 20%，公司整体收入增长 54%。 创始人刘总及其一致行动人持股约 24%，管理层及高管持股约 40%， 董事长持续增持并实施股权激励，彰显对 ...

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the overseas internet population dividend and the high growth trend of audio and video social networking, continuously exploring niche market demands and expanding its product matrix to initiate a new growth cycle [1] - Key insight 1: The company's core business advantages include strong organizational capabilities, deep local product operations, a multi-country and multi-product strategy that allows for low marginal costs and rapid iteration, and a diverse product offering that meets various emotional value needs across different social scenarios [1] - Key insight 2: The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers is a rare asset, and the launch of the HeeSay brand overseas aims to tap into the growing LGBTQ market, with the company’s product Blued maintaining a leading position in the domestic LGBTQ social sector [1] Group 2 - Key insight 3: The global casual gaming market is expanding, with the company’s flagship game "Alice's Dream: Merge Island" projected to achieve a 60% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024 and potentially become profitable by the fourth quarter of 2024 [2] - Key insight 4: The company has several mobile games in the pipeline, which are expected to contribute additional revenue in the latter half of the year [2] - Financial forecast: The company’s revenue and profit are expected to steadily increase, with projected revenues of 6.6 billion, 8.3 billion, and 10.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and corresponding net profits of 980 million, 1.34 billion, and 1.78 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in overseas social networking, leveraging a diverse product matrix to capture global opportunities [8]. - The report highlights the company's stable core business in social networking, with strong growth potential from late-stage products [8]. - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers is noted as a strategic move to tap into the growing LGBTQ market, with the launch of the HeeSay brand aimed at expanding into Southeast Asia and Western markets [9]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the casual gaming sector, with a notable increase in revenue from its flagship game [10]. Company Overview - The company has a decade-long history of development, combining self-developed and acquired products to build a diverse product matrix [14][15]. - The business model is divided into two main segments: social business and innovative business, with social business contributing the majority of revenue [17]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 6.628 billion in 2025, 8.297 billion in 2026, and 10.274 billion in 2027 [6]. - The company expects a rebound in net profit, forecasting 980 million in 2025, 1.335 billion in 2026, and 1.774 billion in 2027 [6]. - The adjusted EBITDA is also anticipated to rise, with projections of 1.319 billion in 2025 and 1.739 billion in 2026 [6]. Market Position - The global social application market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company focusing on localized operations and a multi-modal product strategy to meet diverse user needs [36][41]. - The report indicates that the company has a strong understanding of local markets, which enhances its operational effectiveness [56]. Product Strategy - The company has developed a multi-product strategy that allows for rapid iteration and testing, reducing marginal costs and diversifying market risk [57]. - Key products include MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO, each targeting different social interaction needs [8][9]. Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the LGBTQ social networking space, particularly through the HeeSay brand [9]. - The casual gaming segment is also highlighted as a promising area, with expectations for continued revenue growth from new game releases [10].