跨境出海丨市场观察 本周看点： -与SpaceX抢海外市场，中国商业航天出海接单； -耐用品2026年策略：坚定出海搏增长，关注美洲与新兴市场机遇； -独行快，众行远：我国自动驾驶出海背后的生态共赢。 行业环境 1.与SpaceX抢海外市场，中国商业航天出海接单 关键词：商业航天,海外市场,拼车发射,发射成本,国际竞争 概要：中国商业航天企业正积极拓展海外市场，通过"拼车发射"模式降低成本并提升效率，吸 引埃及、尼泊尔、阿联酋等国际客户。国家航天局近期发布政策鼓励企业"走出去"，参与国际 竞争。尽管国内发射成本已降至5-6万元/公斤，但与SpaceX相比仍有差距。SpaceX凭借高频发 射和星链项目占据优势，并计划明年IPO，加剧全球竞争。中国企业需提升供应链稳定性、质 量透明度及国际标准适配能力，以赢得海外信任。新兴市场对多样化供应商的需求为中国企业 提供了机会，但需持续优化技术、成本和稳定性以形成差异化竞争力。 2.耐用品2026年策略：坚定出海搏增长，关注美洲与新兴市场机遇 关键词：高基数,地产影响,外销拐点,内需疲弱,国补政策 概要：2025年家电与轻工制造行业表现不及沪深300，内销受国补政策减弱和 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of AI on the workplace by 2025, highlighting both opportunities and challenges for job seekers and employers [5][6]. Group 1: AI and Job Market Dynamics - AI is expected to revolutionize job roles, but it also poses risks of job displacement, particularly for those in roles that can be automated [5]. - The emergence of "super individuals" in the workforce may lead to reduced job opportunities for others, as increased productivity from these individuals can displace multiple workers [5]. Group 2: Employer Branding and Recruitment Trends - There is a lack of investment in employer branding among companies, as many prioritize product performance over employee satisfaction [6]. - Companies are increasingly seeking "versatile talents" by expanding job descriptions, which may undermine the value of teamwork and specialized roles [6]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Insights - The advanced manufacturing sector is experiencing a surge in investment, particularly in robotics and 3D printing, with significant growth in talent demand [9]. - The chip manufacturing industry is accelerating its domestic production capabilities, with a reported 90% yield rate for new processes, indicating a strong push towards self-sufficiency [9]. Group 4: Employment Trends and Challenges - The article notes a structural talent shortage in various sectors, including robotics and chip manufacturing, with a reported talent gap exceeding 300,000 in the semiconductor industry [9]. - The article emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing market demands and invest in employee development to remain competitive [6][9].

机构：光大证券 研究员：付天姿/杨朋沛 Dream:MergeGames》。24 年该游戏流水同比增长超过60%，24 年5 月流水近千万美金；公司计划将该 游戏的成功经验迁移到新产品，打造长生命周期爆款。2）社交电商是公司在"社交+"场景下的重要探 索。从垂直深耕阶段收购蓝城兄弟旗下蓝城大健康，到拓圈发展阶段的荷尔先生，用户群体不断丰富。 3）赤子城科技通过自研布局AIAgent 并推出AI 内容社区Aippy，积极探索AI 驱动的下一代社交娱乐形 态；短剧业务已初见成果，初步面向东南亚与美洲市场。 盈利预测、估值与评级：赤子城科技作为中国非游戏厂商出海收入榜前10 名的公司，通过精细的本地 化运营，凭借成功的"产品+国家"复制战略，实现了对新兴社交娱乐市场（尤其是中东北非地区和泛东 南亚地区）的广泛布局；此外，公司通过创新业务实现收入来源多元化，短中期收入&利润增长确定性 较高。我们预计25-27 年公司实现营业收入69.0/84.1/97.0 亿元人民币，实现归母净利润9.5/12.4/14.9 亿 元，同比增速分别为97.0%/31.3%/19.7%。公司作为出海社交龙头企业，首次覆盖，给予目标价14 ...

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities initiates coverage on Zhiyu City Technology (09911), setting a target price of HKD 14.5 and a "Buy" rating, highlighting its leadership in the overseas social sector and successful localization strategy [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Zhiyu City Technology is a leading global social entertainment platform from China, focusing on diverse social experiences for users from various cultural backgrounds, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia [1] - The company achieved revenue of RMB 3.181 billion in H1 2025, representing a 40% year-on-year growth, with SUGO and TopTop revenues both exceeding 100% growth [1] Group 2: Social Business Segments - The core business of the company is its mass social segment, expected to account for over 70% of total revenue by 2024, utilizing a "bush" product matrix strategy to cover diverse social needs through products like MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO [2] - The company has established operational centers in over 20 countries, with a localized team of approximately 800 people, employing a collaborative model of "Chinese direction, local execution" [2] - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers enhances the company's position in the diverse social segment, with BlueCity's MAU reaching approximately 7.45 million and a DAU/MAU ratio of 47% [2] Group 3: Innovation and Growth - The company is developing a diversified business ecosystem centered around premium mobile games, social e-commerce, AI, and short dramas, with a focus on collaborative growth [3] - The flagship mobile game, "Alice's Dream: Merge Games," saw over 60% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, with nearly USD 10 million in revenue by May 2024 [3] - The company is exploring AI-driven social entertainment through its self-developed AIAgent and the AI content community Aippy, while initial results in the short drama sector are promising, targeting Southeast Asia and the Americas [3] - Revenue and profit growth are expected to be robust, with projected revenues of RMB 6.9 billion, 8.41 billion, and 9.7 billion for 2025-2027, and net profits of RMB 0.95 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.49 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 97.0%, 31.3%, and 19.7% respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - Everbright Securities has initiated coverage on Zhibocheng Technology (09911), a leading overseas social enterprise, with a target price of HKD 14.5 and a "Buy" rating, highlighting its successful localization strategy and extensive layout in emerging social entertainment markets, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Zhibocheng Technology is a leading global social entertainment platform from China, primarily focusing on diverse social experiences for users from various cultural backgrounds, especially in the Middle East and North Africa [2] - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 3.181 billion in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%, with SUGO and TopTop revenues growing over 100% [2] - The net profit for H1 2025 reached RMB 489 million, corresponding to a net profit margin of 15.4% [2] Group 2: Business Segments - The company's core business is the mass social segment, expected to account for over 70% of total revenue by 2024, utilizing a "bush" product matrix strategy to cover diverse social products like MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO [3] - Zhibocheng Technology has established operational centers in over 20 countries, with a localized team of approximately 800 people, employing a collaborative model of "Chinese direction and local execution" [3] - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers has strengthened the company's position in the diverse social segment, with BlueCity's MAU reaching approximately 7.45 million and a DAU/MAU ratio of 47% [3] Group 3: Innovation and Growth - The company is developing a diversified business ecosystem centered around premium mobile games, social e-commerce, AI, and short dramas, with a focus on collaborative growth [4] - The premium mobile game "Alice's Dream: Merge Games" has seen over 60% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, with nearly USD 10 million in revenue in May 2024 [4] - Zhibocheng Technology is exploring AI-driven social entertainment through its self-developed AIAgent and the AI content community Aippy, while initial results in the short drama business are emerging in Southeast Asia and the Americas [4] - Revenue and profit growth are expected to be robust, with projected revenues of RMB 6.9 billion, 8.41 billion, and 9.7 billion for 2025-2027, and net profits of RMB 950 million, 1.24 billion, and 1.49 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 97.0%, 31.3%, and 19.7% respectively [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant growth and diversification of Chiwan Technology, emphasizing its strong performance in social entertainment and innovative business sectors, particularly in the MENA and Southeast Asian markets [4][5]. Group 1: Company Overview - Chiwan Technology is a leading global social entertainment platform focusing on diverse social experiences for users from various cultural backgrounds, primarily in the MENA region [4]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 3.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40%, with SUGO and TopTop revenues growing over 100% [4]. Group 2: Social Business Segments - The core business of Chiwan Technology is its mass social business, projected to account for over 70% of total revenue by 2024, utilizing a "bush" product matrix strategy [5]. - The company has established a localized operational team of approximately 800 people across over 20 countries, implementing a collaborative model of "Chinese direction and local execution" [5]. - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers has strengthened the company's position in the diverse social sector, with BlueCity's MAU reaching approximately 7.45 million and a DAU/MAU ratio of 47% [5]. Group 3: Innovative Business Growth - Chiwan Technology is developing a diversified business ecosystem centered around premium mobile games, social e-commerce, AI, and short dramas [6]. - The flagship mobile game, "Alice's Dream: Merge Games," saw over 60% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024, with nearly 10 million USD in revenue by May 2024 [6]. - The company is exploring AI-driven social entertainment forms through its self-developed AIAgent and has initiated short drama projects targeting Southeast Asia and the Americas [7].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 14.5, compared to the current price of HKD 10.54 [4][6]. Core Insights - The company, Chi Zi Cheng Technology, is a leading global social entertainment platform from China, focusing on diverse social experiences for users from various cultural backgrounds, primarily in the Middle East and North Africa [1][15]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth, with a 40% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, reaching RMB 3.181 billion, and a net profit of RMB 489 million, corresponding to a net profit margin of 15.4% [1][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Chi Zi Cheng Technology has transitioned from a tool-based application to a diversified social product matrix, focusing on global social entertainment [15][16]. - The company has established a strong localized operational team with around 800 members across more than 20 countries, implementing a "China-led, local-driven" collaborative model [2][19]. Social Business Strategy - The company's core social business, which is expected to account for over 70% of total revenue by 2024, employs a "bush" product matrix strategy, including products like MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO [2][35]. - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions, such as Blue City Brothers, to enhance its presence in the diverse social market, with Blue City's MAU reaching approximately 7.45 million [2][3]. Innovative Business Growth - The company is developing a second growth curve through innovative businesses, including premium mobile games and social e-commerce, with the flagship game "Alice's Dream: MergeGames" showing over 60% revenue growth in 2024 [3][4]. - The social e-commerce segment is expanding, with acquisitions enhancing user demographics and engagement [3][4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 69.0 billion, 84.1 billion, and 97.0 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of RMB 9.5 billion, 12.4 billion, and 14.9 billion, reflecting growth rates of 97.0%, 31.3%, and 19.7% [4][5]. - The report highlights the company's strong localization strategy and successful "product + country" replication strategy, positioning it well in emerging social entertainment markets [4][5].

中金发布研报称，赤子城科技预计4Q至今，MICO组织架构调整后运营效率提升，收入端环比企稳， YoHo收入保持同比增长，成熟梯队产品持续贡献稳定利润；新产品SUGO、TopTop目前策略仍以用户 规模优先，据Sensor Tower，4Q至今两者全球MAU同比中高双位数增长，在德国、法国、巴西等市场 快速复制，基于此，该行维持2H社交收入同增30%的判断。展望未来，该行预计地域扩张下，SUGO和 TopTop仍为增长核心。 赤子城科技(09911)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.9%，报10.92港元，成交额6867.28万港元。 值得关注的是，中金表示，基于自研和收购，赤子城科技正在试水翻译剧与自制剧的全球发行，目前仍 处于投入期，存在可控亏损，公司看好其未来有望与公司社交生态形成协同。展望明年，中金认为，经 营杠杆存在优化空间，尤其是SUGO、TopTop目前因处于扩张期而利润率暂时偏低，随市场和产品走向 成熟，有望逐步释放利润。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，赤子城科技(09911)涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.9%，报10.92港元，成交额6867.28万港 元。 值得关注的是，中金表示，基于自研和收购，赤子城科技正在试水翻译剧与自制剧的全球发行，目前仍 处于投入期，存在可控亏损，公司看好其未来有望与公司社交生态形成协同。展望明年，中金认为，经 营杠杆存在优化空间，尤其是SUGO、TopTop目前因处于扩张期而利润率暂时偏低，随市场和产品走向 成熟，有望逐步释放利润。 中金发布研报称，赤子城科技预计4Q至今，MICO组织架构调整后运营效率提升，收入端环比企稳， YoHo收入保持同比增长，成熟梯队产品持续贡献稳定利润；新产品SUGO、TopTop目前策略仍以用户 规模优先，据Sensor Tower，4Q至今两者全球MAU同比中高双位数增长，在德国、法国、巴西等市场 快速复制，基于此，该行维持2H社交收入同增30%的判断。展望未来，该行预计地域扩张下，SUGO和 TopTop仍为增长核心。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, total group revenue was RMB 2.65 billion, down 1% year-over-year, but up 1% quarter-over-quarter [4][17] - Domestic revenue reached RMB 2.12 billion, down 10% year-over-year, while overseas revenue was RMB 535 million, up 69% year-over-year [4][17] - Adjusted operating income was RMB 404 million, down 11% from Q3 last year, with a margin of 15.2% [4][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Momo's value-added service revenue was RMB 1.79 billion, down 11% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter [9] - Tantan's revenue from the onshore business was RMB 150 million, down 15% year-over-year and 5% quarter-over-quarter, but ARPU increased by 25% year-over-year [11] - Overseas revenue from value-added services was RMB 533.1 million, up 69% year-over-year and 21% quarter-over-quarter [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Overseas revenue accounted for 20% of the group's revenue, compared to 12% in the same period last year [13] - The growth in overseas revenue was primarily driven by audio and video social products in the MENA region [13][14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Key priorities for 2025 include maintaining Momo's productivity, improving Tantan's core dating experience, and deepening overseas market presence [4][5] - The company aims to optimize the chat experience on Momo and enhance user engagement through AI technologies [6][7] - The acquisition of Happn is expected to enrich the company's overseas dating product portfolio and enhance growth potential in the Asia-Pacific region [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged external challenges impacting business but noted proactive responses leading to good results in user and financial measures [4] - The company expects domestic revenue to decline by mid- to low-teens percentage-wise in 2026, while overseas revenue is anticipated to maintain growth [24][38] - Management emphasized the importance of platform fundamentals, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory environments in shaping future performance [37][66] Other Important Information - The company ended Q3 with cash reserves totaling RMB 8.86 billion, down from RMB 14.73 billion at the end of 2024, primarily due to loan repayments and tax payments [23] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q3 was 37.6%, down 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tax issues on Momo's revenue and margin - Management explained that recent tax changes affected mid-tier broadcasters, leading to revenue pressure, but adjustments in revenue sharing policy have shown some recovery [30] Question: Overseas revenue growth and its sustainability - Management highlighted that overseas revenue growth was driven by audio and video products in the MENA region and the acquisition of Happn is expected to enhance future performance [45] Question: M&A strategy and focus areas - Management stated that M&A targets are evaluated based on product value, team capability, and sustainable profitability, with varying levels of post-acquisition involvement [59] Question: Profit margin outlook and shareholder returns - Management indicated that domestic gross margins are expected to decline, while overseas products are seeing stable margins, with overall profitability under pressure but not significantly impacted by overseas business [66]