赤子城科技 20250710 摘要 赤子城科技 91%的收入来自泛人群和多元人群社交，其中泛人群社交是 核心，产品包括 MICO、YOHO、TopTop 和搜狗。多元人群社交覆盖 LGBTQ 群体，产品包括 Blue D、Thinker 和 Hisi。 公司过去五年复合增长率达 67%，调整后 EBITDA 为 50%。2024 年 中东北非收入同比增长约 66%，搜狗营收增长约 200%，利润超 400%，TopTop 营收增长约 100%。 中东北非市场是赤子城科技的重要增长引擎，该地区未来五年复合增速 预计达 20.7%。公司所有泛区域社交产品均在此进行首次宣发，并复制 到其他地区。 创新业务方面，自研三合一手游 Alice Dream 在 2023 年 9 月月流水超 800 万美元，2024 年 5 月接近 1,000 万美元，中东北非地区收入同比 增长约 66%。 多元人群社交市场潜力巨大，预计到 2026 年 LGBTQ 人群将达 6.6 亿， 具有高学历、高收入特点。蓝城兄弟整体 MAU 达 750 万，DAU/MAU 为 50%，次月留存率长期保持在 75%。 Q&A 赤子城科技如何看待多元 ...

上 市 公 司 2025 年 06 月 30 日 赤子城科技 (09911) ——社交先锋，淘金中东 报告原因：首次覆盖 买入（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.83 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8678.3 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 11.50/2.50 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 138.96 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,412.18 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0966 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -43% 457% 07/02 08/02 09/02 10/02 11/02 12/02 01/02 02/02 03/02 04/02 05/02 06/02 资料来源：Bloomberg HSCEI 赤子城科技 公 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 赵航 A0230522100002 zhaohang@swsresearch.com 联系人 赵航 (8621)23297818× zhaohan ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：肖俨衍/魏萌/白洋 投资亮点 首次覆盖赤子城科技（09911）给予跑赢行业评级，目标价11.30 港元，基于P/E 估值法，给予14 倍25e Non-IFRS P/E，隐含25e P/S 估值2 倍。公司在社交及游戏领域推出数十款应用及休闲游戏产品，累计服 务全球逾100 个国家和地区超10 亿用户，深耕中东北非市场，并积极拓展东南亚、欧美及日韩，致力于 发展成全球领先的社交娱乐企业。理由如下： 全球化扩张+体系化创新，形成长期增长动能。公司将中东北非市场定位为长期核心战略区域，文化洞 察、本地运营、技术生态壁垒深厚，在中东多次行业洗牌中屹立不倒，目前中东北非区域持续贡献公司 超50%的社交收入，公司预计将向欧美高ARPU 市场纵深发展。此外，公司估计多个尚处于起量阶段的 产品管线，24 年整体贡献约10%的泛人群社交收入，或有望支撑未来的业绩突破。考虑到市场拓展， 我们预计短期营销费用率或相对维持高位，但长期看，随着获客效率提升，经营杠杆有望逐步释放。 我们与市场的最大不同？ 市场认为TikTok 最终将在全球范围内形成垄断性优势，并占据市场主导地 位，我们认为垂直赛道仍有机遇，且 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Guohai Securities initiates coverage on Zhibo City Technology with a "Buy" rating, projecting a target market value of 16.6 billion RMB by 2025, corresponding to a target price of 13 HKD [1][7] - The global social media account count is expected to reach 5.04 billion by January 2024, representing 62.3% of the global population, indicating strong market penetration [2] - The global social networking market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.2%, exceeding 300 billion USD by 2030 [2] Group 2: Market Position and Product Matrix - Zhibo City Technology maintains a leading position in various segments of the social market, with SUGO ranking third globally in the audio/voice social sector and TopTop ranking third in the gaming social sector [4] - The Middle East is identified as a lucrative market for online entertainment due to high GDP and limited offline entertainment options, with Zhibo City Technology's MICO becoming a mainstream social platform in the region [4][6] - The company has established a strong foothold in North America, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, leveraging its products to expand rapidly in favorable market conditions [4] Group 3: Business Capabilities and Financial Projections - Zhibo City Technology's competitive advantage stems from localized product operations, understanding of niche markets, and a multi-country, multi-product strategy that reduces marginal costs and mitigates market risks [6] - The company anticipates revenue growth from its products, with SUGO expected to generate 10 million USD monthly by 2024 and TopTop's monthly revenue projected to increase from 5 million USD to over 10 million USD by the end of 2025 [6][7] - Financial forecasts indicate revenues of 6.6 billion RMB, 8.3 billion RMB, and 10.3 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 980 million RMB, 1.34 billion RMB, and 1.78 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [7]

6月5日，赤子城科技全球总部启动仪式在中国香港举行。香港特区政府引进重点企业办公室副主任蒋学礼博士、香港科技园公司企业发展总监温宝玲，以及 赤子城科技董事长刘春河、高级副总裁宋朋亮、副总裁郑林州及副总裁余欣出席活动。 赤子城科技以子公司Solo X Technology Limited的名义进驻香港科学园。赤子城科技董事长刘春河表示，"香港拥有国际化的营商环境、成熟的资本市场，以 及顶级的人才资源。而今天，赤子城科技全球总部正式落地香港，标志着公司的全球化战略迈入新的阶段，是公司发展的重要里程碑。" 赤子城科技创立于2009年，2013年开启全球化之路，2019年于港交所主板上市。赤子城科技始终坚持全球化战略，目前，公司已在中东、东南亚等市场建立 了20多个运营中心，旗下MICO、YoHo、TopTop、SUGO、Alice's Dream: Merge Games 等产品进入了全球150多个国家和地区。 赤子城科技高级副总裁宋朋亮先生 在启动仪式上，赤子城科技高级副总裁宋朋亮分享了公司在中国香港的布局思路。"在香港，我们将重点布局两大方向，第一个方向是探索人工智能在社交 娱乐业务场景中的深度应用；第二个方向 ...

Group 1 - Core viewpoint: The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the overseas internet population dividend and the high growth trend of audio and video social networking, continuously exploring niche market demands and expanding its product matrix to initiate a new growth cycle [1] - Key insight 1: The company's core business advantages include strong organizational capabilities, deep local product operations, a multi-country and multi-product strategy that allows for low marginal costs and rapid iteration, and a diverse product offering that meets various emotional value needs across different social scenarios [1] - Key insight 2: The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers is a rare asset, and the launch of the HeeSay brand overseas aims to tap into the growing LGBTQ market, with the company’s product Blued maintaining a leading position in the domestic LGBTQ social sector [1] Group 2 - Key insight 3: The global casual gaming market is expanding, with the company’s flagship game "Alice's Dream: Merge Island" projected to achieve a 60% year-on-year revenue growth in 2024 and potentially become profitable by the fourth quarter of 2024 [2] - Key insight 4: The company has several mobile games in the pipeline, which are expected to contribute additional revenue in the latter half of the year [2] - Financial forecast: The company’s revenue and profit are expected to steadily increase, with projected revenues of 6.6 billion, 8.3 billion, and 10.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, and corresponding net profits of 980 million, 1.34 billion, and 1.78 billion yuan [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in overseas social networking, leveraging a diverse product matrix to capture global opportunities [8]. - The report highlights the company's stable core business in social networking, with strong growth potential from late-stage products [8]. - The acquisition of BlueCity Brothers is noted as a strategic move to tap into the growing LGBTQ market, with the launch of the HeeSay brand aimed at expanding into Southeast Asia and Western markets [9]. - The company is also expanding its presence in the casual gaming sector, with a notable increase in revenue from its flagship game [10]. Company Overview - The company has a decade-long history of development, combining self-developed and acquired products to build a diverse product matrix [14][15]. - The business model is divided into two main segments: social business and innovative business, with social business contributing the majority of revenue [17]. Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 6.628 billion in 2025, 8.297 billion in 2026, and 10.274 billion in 2027 [6]. - The company expects a rebound in net profit, forecasting 980 million in 2025, 1.335 billion in 2026, and 1.774 billion in 2027 [6]. - The adjusted EBITDA is also anticipated to rise, with projections of 1.319 billion in 2025 and 1.739 billion in 2026 [6]. Market Position - The global social application market is experiencing rapid growth, with the company focusing on localized operations and a multi-modal product strategy to meet diverse user needs [36][41]. - The report indicates that the company has a strong understanding of local markets, which enhances its operational effectiveness [56]. Product Strategy - The company has developed a multi-product strategy that allows for rapid iteration and testing, reducing marginal costs and diversifying market risk [57]. - Key products include MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO, each targeting different social interaction needs [8][9]. Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the potential for significant growth in the LGBTQ social networking space, particularly through the HeeSay brand [9]. - The casual gaming segment is also highlighted as a promising area, with expectations for continued revenue growth from new game releases [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" based on its strong performance and growth potential [10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 5.09 billion RMB in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 53.92%. The social business revenue reached 4.63 billion RMB, growing by 58.1%, while the innovative business revenue was 460 million RMB, up by 21.3% [1][2]. - The operating profit was 729 million RMB, an increase of 32.3%, and the adjusted EBITDA was 963 million RMB, reflecting a growth of 42.8% [1]. - The company expects to record a revenue of approximately 1.5 to 1.57 billion RMB in Q1 2025, which is a year-on-year increase of about 41.5% to 48.1% [2]. Summary by Sections Social Business Performance - The social business continues to show robust growth, with a revenue of 4.63 billion RMB in 2024, up 58.1%. Key products like MICO and YoHo are contributing significantly, while the new product SUGO has seen revenue growth exceeding 200% [3]. - The average monthly active users (MAU) for the social business reached 32.835 million in Q1 2025, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [3]. Innovative Business Development - The innovative business, particularly in premium games, has shown significant growth, with total revenue exceeding 705 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of over 80%. The flagship game "Alice's Dream: Merge Games" has also performed well [3]. - The social e-commerce segment has experienced revenue growth exceeding 200% and profit growth over 600% [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain high growth in its social and gaming products, with new products in development. The acquisition of remaining shares in NBT Social Networking is anticipated to further enhance profits in 2025 [5]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 903 million, 1.12 billion, and 1.38 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth rates of 88.1%, 23.9%, and 23.3% respectively [5].

本报讯 （记者李春莲）近日，中信证券研究部发布赤子城科技有限公司（以下简称"赤子城科技"，09911.HK）投资价值 分析报告，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级。作为全球泛娱乐社交领域的龙头，赤子城科技凭借多年海外运营经验，以"产品复制+国 家复制"模式，扎根中东北非，并加速向全球市场扩张，正在进入"产品收获期"，未来前景广阔。 中信证券上述分析师还表示，受益于石油等行业发展，中东北非国家人均GDP较高，但因自然环境、宗教文化习俗等因 素，用户线下社交娱乐受限，对线上社交娱乐有强烈需求。在"有钱有闲"的用户特征加持下，社交应用在中东北非市场空间广 阔。根据Verified Market Research预测，2032年中东媒体和娱乐市场有望达到820亿美元。同时，东南亚市场年轻网民基数大， 伴随着数字化基础设施完善，2025年东南亚数字娱乐GMV有望达34亿美元。 （编辑 李波） 同时，多元人群社交业务在海外市场亦加速拓展。报告还显示，公司的全球化多元人群社交平台HeeSay增长空间较大，后 续有望凭借直播玩法、东南亚/日韩等市场拓展，实现渗透率提升。 在社交业务护城河不断加深的同时，赤子城科技亦通过打造手游与社交电 ...