证券研究报告|港股公司深度研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 03 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 泛娱乐社交出海龙头，中东红利下长期成长确定性凸显 [Table_Title2] 赤子城科技(9911.HK) [Table_Summary] 主要观点: ► 赛道景气：全球社交娱乐市场需求旺盛，细分领 域增长确定性强 全球移动应用市场中，社交网络与游戏类 App 在下载量、使 用时长、商业变现三大维度表现突出。根据 statista 数据， 2025 年全球移动 App 市场收入接近 6000 亿美元，预计 2029 年将达 8000 亿美元。中东北非地区作为核心增长市场， 2023-2028 年媒体娱乐市场规模复合增速 9.4%，其高人均 GDP（GCC 国家 2024 年普遍超 2 万美元）、35 岁以下年轻人 口占比 60%，近 100% 互联网渗透率，为社交娱乐消费提供了 坚实基础，公司在该区域的深度布局持续受益。 ► "灌木丛" 策略构建竞争壁垒，多产品协同增 长。 公司采用多产品并行的 "灌木丛" 策略，形成覆盖直播社交 （MICO）、语音社交（YoHo）、陪伴社交（SUGO ...

Macro and Strategy - In the first two months of 2026, China's foreign trade showed a strong start, with exports increasing by 21.8% and imports by 19.8% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in global manufacturing demand and an improvement in the competitiveness of high-end manufacturing and electromechanical products [7][8] - The government emphasizes "expanding high-level opening up," focusing on institutional reforms to facilitate foreign investment and optimize trade processes, which will provide a more flexible environment for companies to participate in global supply chains [7][8] - The report suggests three strategies to boost domestic demand: increasing the birth rate to stimulate consumption in maternal and child care, promoting the urbanization of migrant workers to drive new demand, and enhancing the stock market's wealth effect to increase consumer confidence [8][9][10][11] Industry and Company ZhiZiCheng Technology (09911.HK) - ZhiZiCheng is a leading global social entertainment player with over 20 localized operation centers, serving over 1 billion users across more than 150 countries [13][14] - The core social business, which includes various social platforms, saw a revenue growth of 37% in the first half of 2025, contributing 89% to total revenue [14] - The innovative business segment, including self-developed mobile games and social e-commerce, achieved a revenue growth of 72%, accounting for 11% of total revenue [15][16] JD Health (06618.HK) - JD Health reported a revenue of 381.5 billion yuan in the second half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 28%, driven by an increase in active users and a diverse product range [17][18] - The company’s non-IFRS net profit margin improved from 7.2% to 7.8%, benefiting from operational efficiency despite rising fulfillment costs [18][19] - The online penetration rate in the pharmaceutical sector is expected to grow significantly, with the current penetration rate in the outpatient market at about 15%, compared to nearly 30% in the overall retail market [19] SEA (SE.N) - SEA's revenue reached 6.85 billion USD in Q4 2025, a 38% year-on-year increase, driven by strong growth in e-commerce, digital finance, and gaming sectors [20][21] - The e-commerce segment generated 4.98 billion USD, with a GMV of 36.7 billion USD, reflecting a 28% year-on-year growth [20] - The digital finance segment saw a 54% increase in revenue, with a total loan portfolio of 9.3 billion USD, indicating robust growth and effective risk management [21] JD Group (SW09618.HK) - JD Group achieved a revenue of 352.3 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.53%, despite challenges in the electronics category [23][24] - The company plans to continue its stock buyback program, with a total of 3 billion USD allocated for repurchases, representing 6.3% of the total outstanding shares [24][25] - The projected revenue for 2026-2028 is expected to reach 1.5793 trillion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 29.9 billion and 41.7 billion yuan for 2026 and 2027, respectively [25] MinBao Optoelectronics (301362.SZ) - MinBao Optoelectronics plans to acquire a 51% stake in Xiamen Zhizhi Precision, focusing on high-end PCB drilling technology, which is expected to benefit from the AI wave [26][30] - The acquisition is anticipated to enhance MinBao's capabilities in the high-end PCB market, with projected revenues of 1.4 billion yuan for Xiamen Zhizhi in 2025, reflecting an 8.2% growth [30] - The global PCB drilling market is expected to reach 4.5 billion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 15% from 2024 to 2029, driven by increased demand for high-end PCBs [26][30] Anfu Technology (603031.SH) - Anfu Technology reported a revenue of 4.77 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with net profit rising by 9.6% [31][32] - The company plans to increase its stake in Nanfu Battery, which is expected to enhance profitability due to its strong cash flow and operational stability [34] - The projected net profits for 2026-2028 are estimated at 421 million, 583 million, and 647 million yuan, respectively, indicating significant growth potential [34] Huali Group (300979.SZ) - Huali Group's revenue grew by 4.1% to 24.98 billion yuan in 2025, while net profit decreased by 16.5% to 3.21 billion yuan [35] - The company proposed a dividend payout ratio of approximately 76.4%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [35]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 15.64 per share based on a 16X PE valuation for 2026 [8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the social media sector, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) market, with a strong focus on social products and innovative business models [8][14]. - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projected net profits of CNY 921 million, CNY 1,214 million, and CNY 1,464 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 91.8%, 31.8%, and 20.6% [8][32]. - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings and market presence through acquisitions and innovative strategies, leading to a robust growth trajectory [8][22]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2009, has developed a diverse portfolio of social networking applications and games, focusing on the MENA market while also exploring opportunities in Southeast Asia and North America [14][15]. - The company has a stable ownership structure, with significant shares held by the founding team and institutional investors [26][30]. Social Products - The company's social products, including MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO, have shown strong performance, with MICO transitioning into a mature phase while new products are rapidly gaining traction [8][45]. - The revenue contribution from social products has increased significantly, with the MENA region becoming the primary market, accounting for over 70% of total revenue [46][45]. Innovative Business - The gaming segment has entered a profit recovery phase, with flagship products like "Alice's Dream: Merge Games" contributing significantly to revenue [8][22]. - The company is also exploring new business avenues such as social e-commerce and AI-driven content creation, which are expected to contribute to future growth [8][22]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts substantial revenue growth, with main revenue expected to reach CNY 50.92 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 53.9% [32]. - The EBITDA is projected to grow from CNY 837 million in 2023 to CNY 1,687 million by 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [2][32]. Market Position - The company has established a strong market position in the MENA region, leveraging its product replication and localization strategies to enhance operational efficiency and cultural fit [46][22]. - The innovative approach to product development and market expansion has positioned the company favorably against competitors in the social media landscape [8][22].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (首次评级) [1] Core Insights - The company is a leading global player in social entertainment, with over 20 localized operation centers serving more than 1 billion users across 150+ countries. Its core business is divided into social and innovative segments, with a strong focus on the Middle East and North Africa [3][9] - The core social business, which accounts for 89% of revenue, has seen a 37% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025. The company aims to refine two flagship products with monthly revenues exceeding 10 million [3][9] - The innovative business segment, which includes self-developed mobile games and social e-commerce, has experienced a 72% year-on-year revenue growth, contributing 11% to total revenue [3][9] Company Overview - Founded in 2009 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2019, the company has established a strong global presence through localized operations and a diverse product matrix [9] - The company has a unique "bush" product matrix that allows it to break away from reliance on a single product, enhancing its competitive edge in the social entertainment market [9] Social Business - The core social business is driven by two main segments: general social and diverse social, with the former being the primary revenue driver [3][10] - The general social segment includes flagship products like MICO, YoHo, TopTop, and SUGO, which cater to various social needs such as live streaming, voice interaction, and gaming [3][10] - The diverse social segment, bolstered by the acquisition of Blue City Brothers, includes products like Blued and Heesay, focusing on LGBTQ+ and high-end social interactions [3][10] Innovative Business - The innovative business segment encompasses self-developed mobile games, social e-commerce, and short video content, contributing to the company's second growth curve [3][10] - The flagship mobile game, "Alice's Dream," has reached a peak monthly revenue of nearly 10 million USD and is in a stable profit phase [3][10] - The company is also developing a short video platform, DramaBite, targeting emerging markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [3][10] Investment Recommendations - The company is well-positioned in emerging markets like the Middle East and Southeast Asia, with a focus on vertical and diverse social, casual gaming, and short video sectors [3][10] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 6.9 billion, 8.7 billion, and 10 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 36%, 26%, and 14% [3][10] - The target price for the company's stock is set between 12.6 and 13.6 HKD, reflecting a strong growth outlook compared to industry averages [3][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The company is a leading global player in social entertainment, with over 20 localized operation centers serving more than 1 billion users across 150+ countries. Its business is divided into core social and innovative segments, with a strong focus on the Middle East and North Africa [3][9] - The core social business, which accounts for 89% of revenue, has seen a 37% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025. The innovative business segment has also shown significant growth, with a 72% increase in revenue [3][14] - The company aims to enhance its flagship products and expand its market presence in emerging regions, particularly in vertical social and casual gaming sectors [3][5] Company Overview - Founded in 2009, the company has established a strong global presence, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, with a projected market size of over $2.36 billion by 2028 [9][10] - The company employs a localized operational strategy, with 90% of its overseas staff being local employees, ensuring cultural alignment with target markets [9][21] Social Business - The core social business is driven by two main segments: general social and diverse social, with the general social segment contributing approximately 79% of total revenue [3][11] - Key products include MICO (live social platform), YoHo (voice social platform), TopTop (game social), and SUGO (companion social platform), with significant revenue contributions from the Middle East and North Africa [3][14] Innovative Business - The innovative business segment includes self-developed casual games, overseas short dramas, social e-commerce, and traffic monetization, contributing 11% to total revenue [3][14] - The flagship game, "Alice's Dream," has reached a peak monthly revenue of nearly $10 million, indicating a strong market position in the casual gaming sector [3][14] Investment Recommendations - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities in emerging markets, with a projected revenue of 6.9 billion, 8.7 billion, and 10 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting a CAGR of 25% [3][5] - The target price for the company's stock is set between 12.6 and 13.6 HKD, supported by a robust product matrix and strong growth potential in core markets [3][5]

证券研究报告 计算机 | 软件开发 港股|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 08 日 投资要点： 赤子城科技(09911.HK) 投资评级： 买入（首次） ——赤子之心，筑就全球社交娱乐之城 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 许孟婕 SAC：S1350525120004 xumengjie@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 公司是深耕中东、剑指全球的出海社交娱乐头部公司。公司成立于 2009 年，成立之 初即瞄准出海赛道，早期以工具型应用切入市场，目前已形成了以泛娱乐社交和多 元人群社交为核心的社交娱乐产品矩阵。泛娱乐社交：2016 年，公司开始对米可世 界的投资，布局社交出海赛道。2020 年，公司正式收购米可世界，推进"产品复制 +国家复制"战略，形成了以 MICO、YoHo、TopTop、SUGO 等产品为核心的多元 产品矩阵。多元人群社交：2022 年参与美股上市公司蓝城兄弟私有化，开拓全球 LGBTQ 社交赛道，收购 Blued、Fi ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, ZhiZi City Technology, is expected to achieve a total revenue of RMB 67.6-70.0 billion in 2025, representing a growth of approximately 32.8%-37.5% compared to 2024. The social business revenue is projected to be around RMB 60.3-62.3 billion, with a growth of about 30.4%-34.8%, while the innovative business revenue is expected to reach RMB 7.3-7.7 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 55.7%-64.2% [1][2]. Social Business Performance - The social business is maintaining strong growth, with platforms like MICO and YoHo contributing stable profits and cash flow. The platforms SUGO and TopTop are experiencing explosive growth, becoming key drivers for the social business's rapid expansion. In the Middle East and North Africa market, the company has established significant competitive advantages and ecological barriers [2]. - By Q4 2025, SUGO ranked 6th in the Sensor Tower revenue chart for social networks in the Middle East, showing an upward trend compared to 2024. The gaming social platform TopTop has become a national-level application in high-value markets like Saudi Arabia through deep localization and an improving UGC ecosystem [2]. Innovative Business Development - The innovative business is experiencing healthy growth, driven by stable development in traffic monetization, social e-commerce, premium gaming, and contributions from short drama projects. The premium gaming business has entered a recovery phase since Q4 2024, with significant improvements in ARPU, and several reserve games are progressing well [3]. - The short drama business is expected to accelerate revenue growth in 2026 due to advancements in self-developed and acquired projects. The company is also deepening its exploration of AI technology, applying it across core business areas and launching the Aippy content creation community to lower the barriers for interactive content production [3]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 68.7 billion, 85.1 billion, and 101.3 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 9.67 billion, 11.67 billion, and 14.41 billion for the same years, corresponding to PE ratios of 15.4, 12.8, and 10.4 times [4].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhizi City Technology (09911.HK), anticipates a significant revenue increase for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, with total revenue expected to be between RMB 6.76 billion and RMB 7.00 billion, representing a growth of 32.8% to 37.5% compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Social Business Performance - Social business revenue is projected to be approximately RMB 6.03 billion to RMB 6.23 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 30.4% to 34.8% [2]. - The substantial growth in social business revenue is attributed to the company's utilization of AI technology to drive diverse social products, with platforms like SUGO and TopTop being key growth engines [3][4]. - In the Middle East and North Africa, the company has established a competitive advantage, with SUGO ranking 6th in revenue among social networks in the region [4]. Group 2: Innovation Business Growth - The innovation business is expected to generate revenue between RMB 730 million and RMB 770 million, with a year-on-year increase of 55.7% to 64.2% [2]. - The growth in the innovation business is driven by robust performance in traffic monetization, social e-commerce, and contributions from short drama business and premium games [5]. - The flagship game has entered a long-term operational phase, with a significant increase in ARPU, and the company has successfully shortened the game development cycle [5]. Group 3: AI Technology Integration - The company has deepened its exploration of AI technology, integrating it into core business operations and launching innovative products like the AI creative content community Aippy [6][7]. - The AI technology has enhanced user experience and operational efficiency across various key business areas, including social recommendations and intelligent operations [7]. - A strategic partnership with Tencent Cloud aims to explore the potential of "AI + global social entertainment" [7]. Group 4: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company ranked 4th in the "China Non-Gaming Companies Overseas Revenue Ranking," indicating a strong development momentum [5]. - The company has developed unique competitive advantages through deep user insights, refined service experiences, and diversified monetization models [5]. - The social e-commerce business has shown steady growth, with the launch of innovative insurance solutions for HIV patients [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhiyu City Technology, anticipates a significant revenue growth for the year 2025, driven by its social and innovative business segments, with a strong emphasis on AI technology integration to enhance user experience and commercial efficiency [1][9]. Group 1: Revenue Projections - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, the company expects total revenue to be between RMB 67.6 billion and RMB 70.0 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.8% to 37.5% compared to 2024 [1]. - The social business segment is projected to generate approximately RMB 60.3 billion to RMB 62.3 billion, reflecting a growth of about 30.4% to 34.8% year-on-year [1]. - The innovative business segment is expected to achieve revenue between RMB 7.3 billion and RMB 7.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 55.7% to 64.2% [1]. Group 2: Social Business Growth - The social business segment has shown substantial growth, primarily due to the integration of AI technology, which has facilitated the development of diverse social products [3]. - Key platforms such as the companionship social platform SUGO and the gaming social platform TopTop have experienced explosive growth, becoming significant drivers of the social business's rapid expansion [3]. - In the Middle East and North Africa market, the company has established a strong competitive advantage, with SUGO ranking 6th in the Sensor Tower revenue chart for social networks in the region [3][4]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - The company has improved its market competitiveness, ranking 4th in the "China Non-Gaming Companies Overseas Revenue Ranking" published by Diandian Data in December 2025, indicating a strong development momentum [4]. - The company's localization capabilities are crucial for building competitive barriers, supported by deep user insights and diverse monetization strategies [8]. Group 4: Innovative Business Development - The innovative business segment has demonstrated robust growth, driven by revenue from social e-commerce and the successful launch of premium games, which have entered a long-term operational phase [10]. - The company has introduced China's first critical illness insurance specifically for HIV patients, showcasing its commitment to innovative solutions in health services [10]. Group 5: AI Technology Integration - The company has intensified its exploration of AI technology, integrating it into core business operations and launching innovative products like the AI creative content community Aippy, which has received positive user feedback [11]. - The introduction of the "Siyu AI Intelligent Data Platform" allows for efficient data querying and analysis through natural language interaction, highlighting the company's advancements in AI applications [11]. Group 6: Global Strategy and Share Buyback - In June 2025, the company established its global headquarters in Hong Kong, marking a new phase in its globalization strategy [12]. - The company has conducted share buybacks totaling over HKD 80 million, reflecting management's confidence in the company's long-term value and growth prospects [12].

Group 1 - Chinese commercial aerospace companies are actively expanding into overseas markets, utilizing "rideshare launch" models to reduce costs and attract international clients from countries like Egypt, Nepal, and the UAE. The domestic launch cost has decreased to 50,000-60,000 yuan per kilogram, but still lags behind SpaceX, which has a competitive edge due to its high-frequency launches and Starlink project [3][4]. - The home appliance and light manufacturing industries are expected to face pressure on both domestic and foreign sales in 2026, with a potential recovery in overseas sales in the latter half of the year. Emerging markets are anticipated to show stronger demand compared to developed markets, particularly in Latin America and Southeast Asia [5]. - China's automotive exports are projected to reach 5.859 million units in 2024, maintaining the top position globally, with a shift from vehicle exports to a more comprehensive output of technology, brand, and supply chain solutions. This transition reflects a move from "selling products" to "building brands" [6][7]. Group 2 - The development of autonomous driving technology in China is being propelled by high-quality growth initiatives and strategic policies, with companies like Baidu Apollo enhancing safety standards and promoting technology exports. The industry is evolving into a collaborative ecosystem that drives innovation and reliability [7][8]. - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) industry is rapidly globalizing, with brands like Pop Mart and 52TOYS successfully entering overseas markets through localized strategies and partnerships. The market share of Chinese潮玩 in the overseas market is projected to grow from 3% in 2020 to 18% by 2025 [9]. - Chinese companies are increasingly investing in the European market, particularly in renewable energy and high-tech sectors, while facing challenges such as national security reviews and compliance issues. Differentiated strategies and localized investments are essential for success [10]. Group 3 - Amazon's global store initiative aims to cultivate 200 cross-border brands in Shandong over the next three years, focusing on AI-driven strategies and innovative measures to enhance logistics efficiency and support local sellers [11]. - The Chinese commercial vehicle sector is transitioning from product trade to a comprehensive service model, emphasizing lifecycle services and local adaptation. The export of Chinese commercial vehicles to the EU has seen a 42% year-on-year increase [18]. - The digital culture industry in China is experiencing rapid growth, with online games, films, and literature becoming key components of global cultural exchange. The industry is encouraged to enhance IP development and international collaboration to overcome cultural barriers [17].