机构：长城证券 研究员：侯宾 事件：赤子城科技发布25H1 业绩，公司实现营业收入31.81 亿元，同比增长40.0%；实现归母净利润 4.89 亿元，同比增长117.8%；实现经调整EBITDA6.46 亿元，同比增长44.0%。 投资建议：我们预计2025-2027 年公司实现营收69.81/86.49/103.58 亿元；归母净利润9.51/12.26/15.30 亿 元；对应PE 分别为15.9/12.3/9.9 倍。公司将坚定推进"灌木丛"战略，增强AI 赋能，持续用多元化产品 覆盖全球社交娱乐市场更多细分赛道，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：海外地区拓展不及预期；产品流水增长不及预期；海外合规风险；AI 进展不及预期。 SUGO、TopTop 产品收入维持三位数同比增长，AI赋能带动产品组合蓬勃发展。公司新产品维持亮眼 表现，其中SUGO 持续深挖用户需求、丰富产品功能和变现场景， 并结合区域特点增加优质内容供 给， 期内收入增长超100%，利润增长超150%；TopTop 社区生态进一步获丰富，在中东北非的优势地 位不断巩固，同时积极开拓新市场，期内收入及利润同比增长均超100%。此外，AI 技术 ...

港股晨报 2025 年 9 月 5 日 国证国际证券（香港）有限公司 • 研究部 1. 国证视点：美降息期望大升，关注今晚"非农"数据 周四港股三大指数集体收跌，恒生指数跌 1.12%，国企指数跌 1.25%，恒生科 技指数跌 1.85%。大市成交上升至 3,022.329 亿元，主板总卖空金额为 401.03 亿元，占可卖空股票总成交额比率上升至 14.605%。 南向资金流（北水）周四持续流入但强度减弱，港股通净流入金额 7.06 亿港 元。港股通 10 大成交活跃股中，北水净买入最多的是优必选 9880.HK、小米 集团-W 1810.HK、阿里巴巴 9988.HK、美团 3690.HK；净卖出最多的是中芯 国际 981.HK、华虹半导体 1347.HK、腾讯控股 700.HK。北向资金方面，9 月 4 日北向资金共成交 3808.72 亿元，占两市总成交额的 14.97%。贵州茅台 600519.SH、工业富联 601138.SH、寒武纪 688256.SH 位列沪股通成交前三， 成交额分别为 37.71 亿、37.23 亿、36.28 亿；中际旭创 300308.SZ、新易盛 300502、宁德时代 ...

赤子城科技（09911.HK） SUGO、TopTop 新产品持续发力，AI 赋能带动公司长期成长 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 3,308 | 5,092 | 6,981 | 8,649 | 10,358 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 18.1 | 53.9 | 37.1 | 23.9 | 19.8 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 513 | 480 | 951 | 1,226 | 1,530 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 294.1 | -6.3 | 98.1 | 28.9 | 24.8 | | ROE（%） | 45.8 | 31.2 | 38.5 | 33.4 | 29.7 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.67 | 0.87 | 1.08 | | P/E（倍） | 29.5 | 31.5 | 15.9 | 12.3 | 9.9 | | P/B（倍） | 13.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，考虑创新业务增长好于预期，上调赤子城科技(09911)25/26年收 入预测2%/2%至69/85亿元，考虑营销投放增长抵消毛利的优化，该行维持25/26年经调整净利润预测;维 持"跑赢行业"评级，考虑到行业估值中枢上移，给予15倍25年Non-IFRS P/E，上调目标价20%至13.5港 元，较当前股价有10%上行空间，当前股价交易于13/11倍25和26年Non-IFRS P/E。 毛利率结构性优化，流量投入维持高位 1H25毛利率达56%，同增6pcts，系社交业务分成比例下降、创新业务高毛利结构占比提升，该行预计 25年集团毛利率同比大幅优化。短期看，公司预计新品营销成本或维持高位，但将强化产研、增长、运 营三大能力的中台化整合和AI赋能，以支撑产品和地域复制，因此该行预计研发、行政费用有望逐渐 释放经营杠杆。 1H25社交业务收入同增37%至28.3亿元，系用户和ARPU增长双轮驱动;创新业务同比高增71%至3.47亿 元，公司预计精品游戏进入盈利回收期，长线用户ARPU、留存表现良好，且该业务开始贡献高毛利分 成。 1)SUGO、TopTop：收入均实现三位数 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：肖俨衍/魏萌/白洋 1H25 收入基本符合我们预期 公司公布1H25 业绩：1H25 收入同增40%至31.8 亿元，符合我们预期；经调整EBITDA 同增44%至6.5 亿元，归母净利润同比增长118%至4.9 亿元，符合此前盈利预测中值，小幅低于我们预期，系营销投入 超预期抵消了毛利率提升带来的经营杠杆。 盈利预测与估值 营收支柱持续强化，矩阵扩张有望巩固增长动能。1H25 社交业务收入同增37%至28.3 亿元，系用户和 ARPU增长双轮驱动；创新业务同比高增71%至3.47 亿元，公司预计精品游戏进入盈利回收期，长线用 户ARPU、留存表现良好，且该业务开始贡献高毛利分成。 1）SUGO、TopTop：收入均实现三位数同比增长，两者合计贡献近50%泛人群社交收入，在Boomiix算 法加持下，1H25 SUGO人均在线时长同增17%，ARPU值同增20%，且经营杠杆有所优化；此外，老产 品YoHo在买量策略变化后增速亦有突破。 2）新产品孵化：5-6 款新旗舰产品流水规模持续增长，合计占泛人群社交收入超20%，公司预计其中多 款未来有望达到千万美元月流水规模；To C代码内容创 ...

25H1 公司继续推进"产品复制+国家复制"策略，核心产品在中东北非的业务规模同增超过60%。 机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：秦和平/高翩然 本报告导读： 全球布局日益完善，深耕社群市场影响力不断提升，持续推进创新业务，深化AI 应用。 投资要点： 盈利预测与投 资建议：考虑到公司业务处于快速增长期，我们调整25-27 年营业收入为69.9/87.4/104.8 亿元（前值为65.5/81.1/96.7 亿元）；归母净利润为10.4/12.6/15.4 亿元（前值为9.4/11.7/14.5 亿元）。 给予26 年15xPE，目标价14.6 港元，维持"增持"评级。 营收大幅增长，多元产品矩阵效果显著。赤子城科技25H1 实现收入31.8 亿元，同比+40%。毛利润17.8 亿元，同比+56%。归母净利润4.9 亿元，同比+118%。经调整EBITDA 6.5 亿元，同比+44%。 后发产品长期价值不断显现，泛人群社交业务保持高质量增长。社交业务持续强劲，25H1 实现收入 28.3 亿元，同比+37%；毛利率53.6%，同比+3.9pct。社交业务收入增长受益于公司持续深挖用户需 求、深化本地运营、积极拓展新 ...

Core Insights - The company, Zhizi City Technology, reported significant growth in its mid-2025 performance, with a revenue increase of 40.0% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 117.8%, driven by the dual explosion of social and innovative businesses, as well as the deepening application of AI technology [1][4]. Business Segments - The social business remains the primary revenue contributor, with new products TopTop and SUGO showing explosive growth, while established products MICO and YoHo continue to provide stable profits [4]. - The innovative business saw a remarkable revenue increase of 70.5%, with both premium games and social e-commerce performing exceptionally well [4][7]. Market Performance - The MENA region continues to be a strong market for the company, with core social product revenues in this area growing over 60% year-on-year [4][7]. - In the first half of the year, the social business generated revenue of 2.834 billion yuan, reflecting a 37.0% year-on-year increase, with SUGO and TopTop achieving revenue growth exceeding 100% [7]. AI Integration - AI technology has been increasingly applied in various business scenarios, enhancing operational metrics and improving user satisfaction and retention [11][12]. - The launch of Aippy, a no-code creative content community powered by AI, allows users to easily create websites and games, targeting users without programming skills [12].

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025, driven by the growth of its social and innovative businesses, as well as the deepening application of AI technology [1][2][3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a customer contract revenue of 3.181 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.0% [1] - Gross profit reached 1.775 billion yuan, up 55.6% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 489 million yuan, a substantial increase of 117.8% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - Social business revenue was 2.834 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 37.0% year-on-year, with standout performances from the SUGO and TopTop platforms, both exceeding 100% growth [1] - The innovative business generated 347 million yuan in revenue, marking a 70.5% increase year-on-year [2] - The company's core social products in the Middle East and North Africa saw revenue growth exceeding 60% year-on-year, indicating strong local market penetration [2] AI Integration - The company plans to deepen the application of AI in business scenarios to enhance research and development efficiency, operational precision, and user experience [3] - Key operational metrics for SUGO improved with AI support, including increased user engagement and payment rates [3] - The launch of the AI-based zero-code creative content community, Aippy, allows users to create content easily, targeting non-programmers [3] Global Strategy - The company has established a regional headquarters in Riyadh for the Middle East and North Africa and has set up its global headquarters in Hong Kong [3] - The global market strategy is evolving, with flagship products like SUGO beginning to penetrate Latin America and parts of Europe, demonstrating high market adaptability [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in its mid-year performance for 2025, driven by the dual expansion of its social and innovative businesses, alongside the deepening application of AI technology, with revenue increasing by 40.0% year-on-year and net profit rising by 117.8% [1][4]. Business Performance - The social business remains the primary revenue contributor, with new products TopTop and SUGO showing explosive growth, while established products MICO and YoHo continue to provide stable profits [3][4]. - Innovative business revenue surged by 70.5% year-on-year, with standout performances in premium games and social e-commerce [3][6]. Financial Metrics - For the six months ending June 30, 2025, the company achieved customer contract revenue of 3.181 billion yuan, a 40.0% increase; gross profit reached 1.775 billion yuan, up 55.6%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 489 million yuan, a significant increase of 117.8%; adjusted EBITDA was 646 million yuan, growing by 44.0% [4]. - The social business generated revenue of 2.834 billion yuan, reflecting a 37.0% year-on-year growth, with SUGO and TopTop both exceeding 100% growth in revenue [4][6]. Market Insights - The MENA region continues to be a strong market for the company, with core social product revenue in this area growing over 60% year-on-year, maintaining last year's rapid growth trend [9][12]. - The company's localized operations in the MENA region are showing a "compound effect," with increasing market barriers and a strategic goal of penetrating the Middle East [12]. AI Technology Application - The company is deepening the application of AI in its business operations to enhance research and development efficiency, operational precision, and user experience in social products [13][18]. - For instance, SUGO has seen improvements in various operational metrics such as user online duration, payment rates, and ARPU, attributed to AI enhancements [18]. Global Strategy - The company has established its regional headquarters in Riyadh for the MENA region and has set up its global headquarters in Hong Kong, aiming to leverage these locations for better coordination with global R&D and operations [20].