债市对配置盘的吸引力在上升 多位业内人士表示，复盘历史，股市牛市并不等于债市拐点，经历短期调整后，债市对配置盘的吸引力在上升，未来债市将逐步回归 基本面。 富国基金指出，在近期的调整行情中，短端国债收益率变化显著小于长端国债，1年期、3年期国债利率分别上行了3个基点和7个基 点。中长期限上行幅度更大，5年、7年、10年、30年国债利率分别上行了14个基点、20基点、14个基点和27个基点至1.64%、1.77%、 1.78%和2.11%。对于低风险偏好的资金而言，对比定期存款利率或是扣费后的房贷利率，长端性价比正在逐步显现。 新华财经上海8月25日电（张天源） 8月25日，资本市场暂时摆脱"股债跷跷板"效应带来的影响，呈现"股债双牛"走势。当天，权益市 场再现大涨，银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行，其中30年期国债收益率下行突破2.0%关口。业内人士表示，债券配置性价比正在修 复。 "股债双牛"再现市场 从行情看，当天A股三大指数单边上行，均创出阶段新高。上证指数收涨1.51%报3883.56点，创下2015年8月18日以来收盘新高，深证 成指涨2.26%，创业板指涨3%，均创下2022年8月24日以来收盘新高 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Global Macro Outlook**: The conference call discusses the macroeconomic outlook, focusing on US rates, international rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets [3][4][5][6][7]. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - **Positioning Strategy**: The recommendation is to hold 5s20s steepeners as a low-beta strategy to benefit from lower front-end yields. Anticipation of a multi-quarter series of coupon auction size increases starting in May 2026 is noted [3][12]. - **Net T-bill Issuance**: A projection of $587 billion in net T-bill issuance for the current quarter is made, as the Treasury aims to rebuild the Treasury General Account (TGA) following the passage of the OBBBA [3][23]. International Rates - **Market Volatility**: Developed market (DM) rates have experienced volatility, with bearish repricing following the July ECB meeting and a rally after US payroll data [4]. Commodities - **Oil Market Risks**: The Trump administration's warning to India and China regarding penalties for purchasing Russian oil could jeopardize 2.75 million barrels per day (mbd) of Russian seaborne oil exports. Russia may redirect 0.8 mbd to other countries [8][85]. - **Natural Gas Sentiment**: US natural gas production is negatively impacting market sentiment, and the $750 billion energy purchase deal between the EU and US is viewed as overly optimistic [86][88]. Currencies - **Dollar Positioning**: A significant unwinding of dollar shorts is observed, with the bearish dollar view remaining intact due to US data moderation [6][56][57]. - **EUR/USD Outlook**: The bullish view on EUR/USD is supported by US moderation and favorable fundamental drivers, with a forecast of 1.19 for 3Q and 1.22 for 1 year [70][72]. Emerging Markets - **Investment Strategy**: The strategy shifts to overweight (OW) emerging market (EM) FX and local rates as US growth slows, while remaining underweight (UW) on EM sovereign credit [9][112]. - **Economic Data Impact**: Increased chances of imminent Fed easing are expected to be bullish for EM rates, with a noted outperformance of EM bonds compared to US Treasuries [113]. Other Important Insights - **Treasury Funding Needs**: A significant funding gap is anticipated for FY26 due to COVID-era stimulus debt maturities and a widening fiscal deficit, necessitating coupon size increases starting in May 2026 [20][21]. - **Trade Uncertainty in Agriculture**: The agricultural markets are facing significant trade uncertainties, particularly regarding US-China trade relations, despite some clarity in trade under USMCA [99][101]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic outlook, strategic recommendations, and potential risks and opportunities across various sectors.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an equal weight in equities, overweight in core fixed income, and underweight in other fixed income [4][6]. Core Insights - The US labor market is gradually cooling, with expectations of a decline in real GDP growth from 2.5% in 2024 to 0.8% in 2025 [2][8]. - Global growth is projected to decrease from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, influenced by tariff shocks and immigration restrictions [2][8]. - The report highlights a preference for quality cyclical stocks and investment-grade credit over high-yield credit amid growth and tariff risks [4][6]. Economic Outlook - The US GDP growth forecast for 2025 is revised down to 0.8%, with inflation expected to peak at 3.0% [9]. - The Euro Area and Japan are also projected to experience slow growth, with GDP growth of 0.8% and 0.4% respectively in 2025 [9]. - The report anticipates a significant drop in global demand due to tariffs, impacting supply chains and investment [8]. Sector Recommendations - In the US, the focus is on quality cyclicals, large caps, and defensives with lower leverage [6]. - Key sectors in Europe include defense, banks, software, telecoms, and diversified financials, with a recommendation to reposition into resilient market pockets [6]. - Emerging markets are favored towards financials and domestic-focused businesses over exporters [6]. Market Valuations - The S&P 500 is projected to reach a price target of 6,500 with a P/E ratio of 22.5x for 2025 [7]. - The MSCI Europe index is expected to see a slight decline in earnings, with a target of 2,250 [7]. - Emerging markets are forecasted to have a P/E ratio of 13.1x, with a target of 1,200 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market dynamics between bonds and equities, highlighting the impact of tax regulations on investment strategies and market sentiment [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The stock market opened lower but rebounded, demonstrating a clear "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, with the bond market reacting to new tax regulations [5][6]. - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 544.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 49 billion yuan, indicating a balanced and slightly loose liquidity environment [3][4]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The yield on long-term bonds has seen a slight increase, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating between 1.68% and 1.7125% during the trading session [5][6]. - There is a consensus among market participants that older bonds are performing better than new issues of the same maturity, reflecting a divergence in the performance of government bond futures [6]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, leading to a decline in risk assets globally, which influenced the sentiment in the domestic market [5][6]. - The article notes that the market is reacting to international events, including potential visits by political figures, which may affect investor sentiment and market movements [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The interplay of policy uncertainty and business cycle dynamics is crucial, with significant influences from US policy shifts in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory domains affecting market sentiment [9]. - The complexity and uncertainty surrounding the global macroeconomic landscape are expected to persist in the second half of 2025, with various potential scenarios outlined for market performance [12][15]. - A US recession is not the baseline scenario, but risks remain elevated, with a potential for 100 basis points of Fed cuts between December 2025 and spring 2026 [15][24]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The substantial shift in US trade policy has led to a forecasted downshift in global growth and a rotation in inflation pressures towards the US, with recession risks placed at 40% [17]. - The US GDP growth outlook has been revised down from 2.0% to 1.3% for the year, with core PCE inflation expected to reach 4.6% in Q3 and 3.4% by year-end [21]. Equities - The outlook for US equities suggests narrow market leadership and high concentration, with a potential for new highs absent major policy or geopolitical surprises [25][26]. - International equities are expected to trade favorably, with a rotation into international markets likely to continue, supported by USD weakness [26][27]. Rates - Long-end yields are expected to remain stable, with a forecast for 2-year and 10-year yields to end the year at 3.50% and 4.35%, respectively [30][31]. - The Treasury market's rapid growth has outstripped demand, leading to a potential increase in term premium over time [30]. Credit - High-grade credit remains supported by high yields and good corporate earnings, with spreads expected to remain tight [35][36]. - High-yield bond spreads are forecasted to widen by about 100 basis points to 450 basis points by year-end 2025, with a default rate expected to rise to 2.75% in 2026 [38][39]. Commodities - Oil prices are anticipated to trade in the low-to-mid $60 range for the remainder of 2025, with geopolitical tensions potentially causing short-term spikes [43][44]. - Gold prices are projected to reach an average of $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025, supported by strong demand amid economic uncertainties [45].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on duration while finding value at the front end of the yield curve [3][11][17] Core Insights - The report projects the first Federal Reserve cut in December 2025, with expectations for 2-year Treasury yields to reach 3.50% and 10-year yields to reach 4.35% by year-end 2025 [11][14] - The oil market is factoring in a 21% chance of a significant disruption in Gulf energy production, with crude prices potentially reaching $120-130 [8][45] - The report emphasizes a shift in focus from monetary policy to fiscal policy, particularly regarding the German budget and NATO agreements on defense spending [8][49] US Rates - Value is found at the front end, with expectations for higher yields to add duration as money markets are pricing in earlier and more aggressive Fed easing than the report's forecast [3][11] - The report anticipates an increase in Treasury coupon auction sizes starting in February 2026, although there may be a forgoing of increases to longer-end auction sizes [3][30] International Rates - Developed market yields remained stable despite geopolitical tensions, with central bank meetings occurring amid subdued market activity [4][48] Commodities - The report highlights a major oil supply disruption risk at 21%, with a bullish outlook on corn and cotton prices despite muted price responses [8][45] Currencies - The report maintains a bearish stance on the USD, driven by US growth moderation and global fiscal policies that support growth outside the US [70][72] Emerging Markets - The report recommends an overweight position in emerging market currencies while underweighting emerging market sovereign credit, with a market weight stance on local rates and corporates [8][45]

Group 1 - The proposal for the settlement of HF-Fund was approved by a majority of bondholders, with the value of the HFF bonds in the settlement estimated at ma.kr 651 [1] - The settlement of HF-Fund's obligations is scheduled for 12 June 2025, with the Treasury issuing nine new Treasury bond series totaling a nominal value of ISK 487 billion [2] - The Treasury will fully repay loans from HF-Fund amounting to ISK 238 billion, along with EUR 378 million (approximately ISK 55 billion) from foreign currency deposits [4] Group 2 - Upon settlement, the Treasury will acquire HF-Fund's assets, including The New Housing Fund bonds and a loan portfolio, totaling ISK 222 billion [5] - The net effect of the settlement will reduce the Treasury Part A debt ratio by just over 5% of GDP, according to Maastricht criteria [5]

Global Macro Research May 27th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIMwGzXxb6rqz1qfzQpSq_KChQSSrQEzvkmQ}]} Overall summary US Rates International Rates DM yields sold off at the start of the week as US/China delivered a more constructive outcome than ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] Core Viewpoints - Focus on economic fact verification. In April, domestic data was mixed. Exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries. Regarding commodities, be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products from the US stock adjustment, and the price of agricultural products may rise due to tariffs. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas, and OPEC+ may increase production [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - In April, domestic exports were slightly better than expected, but investment data weakened, especially in the real estate sector. Fiscal revenue and expenditure both rebounded, and consumption was slightly under pressure. There is a possibility of further fiscal stimulus. The central bank will conduct a 500 billion yuan MLF operation on May 23. The Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, and the yuan is expected to be more stable in the future. Before July, the macro situation is expected to revolve around economic fact verification, especially the potential "rush to export" after the tariff talks [1]. US Market - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continues to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest rate framework, and the first interest rate cut this year is postponed to September. The US Treasury will reduce the issuance of short-term bonds. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and other countries [2]. Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the impact of tariff increases shows a pattern of first trading the decline in demand and then trading the rise in inflation. Be cautious of the emotional impact on industrial products such as black and non-ferrous metals from the US stock adjustment. The demand for agricultural products is relatively stable, and the probability of price increases due to tariffs is higher. The price of crude oil has declined, and OPEC+ will increase production in June and may further increase production in July. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas [2]. Strategy - Commodities and stock index futures: Neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification; Gold: Buy on dips [3] To - Do News - The Fed meeting minutes show increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, and a cautious monetary policy is appropriate. There are ongoing trade negotiations between the US and India, the US and the UK. The US government restricts the sale of semiconductor software services to China. The US International Trade Court's ruling on tariffs has been appealed. Japan will issue 800 billion yen in 30 - year government bonds. OPEC+ will discuss production increases in July [2][5][6]

Group 1: Market Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 295.9 billion yuan for 7-day terms at a fixed rate of 1.5%, resulting in a net injection of 120.5 billion yuan after accounting for 175.4 billion yuan maturing on the same day [2][3]. Group 2: Funding Conditions - The weighted average interest rate for major deposit institutions in the interbank market remained high, with overnight borrowing rates for credit bonds between 1.9% and 2%, and 7-day funds slightly increased to 2.3%-2.4% [3]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Yields - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with 1-year government bonds at 1.6200% (down 0.50 basis points) and 10-year government bonds at 1.8675% (down 1.75 basis points) [7]. Group 4: Bond Market Developments - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue RMB green sovereign bonds in London, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange aims to promote long-term capital into the bond market [18].