As stated in paragraph 6 in General Terms of Auction for Treasury bonds, the Government Debt Management offered the equivalent of 10% of the nominal value sold in the auction 4. July, at the price of accepted bids. SeriesRIKS 29 0917ISINIS0000037711Additional issuance (nominal)0Total outstanding (nominal)74,650,000,000 ...

每周一景： 湖南永州九嶷山风景名胜区 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【固收】"大而美"如何影响美债：当前风险与后续影响 美国当地时间 7 月 3 日通过"大而美"法案。根据法案，债务上行将提高 5 万亿美元，美债或将受到供给端冲击。 美国国会众议院对总统特朗普的大规模减 税及支出法案，即"大而美"法案进行最终表决投票。法案以 218 票支持、 214 票反对得以通过。该法案将送至白宫，在经过美国总统特朗普签署后正式颁 布。按提出该法案的共和党方面的说法，该法案计划在未来 10 年内减税 4 万亿美元，并削减至少 1.5 万亿美元支出。此前，美国国会预算办公室（ CBO ）传统基线下的评估则认为，"大而美"法案将在未来 10 年新增 2.8 万亿美元赤字。法案计划未来 10 年减税 4 万亿美元，并将债务上限提高 5 万亿美元， 这将直接导致美债发行规模激增，市场短期需消化的债券供给量将创历史新高。 "美债危机"本质上是美国两党政治博弈的产物，并非真正的主权信用风险。 正如我们在报告《美债危机下的债市配置：风险被高估，美债仍具备配置价值》 提到，自 1917 年设立债务上限以来，美国国会已累计超过七十次提高或调整 ...

Global Macro Research June 30th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{xTcfaSlj-ZSQMv-ljRpIMwb8de_IkRyUQgSEehgsqRWyU9rJnLYnzA}]} Overall summary US Rates While we continue to find value at the front-end, front-end yields have declined to 2-month lows, aided in part by cri ...

Series RIKB 32 1015Settlement Date 07/08/2025Total Amount Allocated (MM) 11,600All Bids Awarded At (Price / Yield) 99.234/7.130Total Number of Bids Received 13Total Amount of All Bids Received (MM) 14,600Total Number of Successful Bids 9Number of Bids Allocated in Full 9Lowest Price / Highest Yield Allocated 99.234/7.130Highest Price / Lowest Yield Allocated 99.289/7.120<td ...

J P M O R G A N Global Research 27 June 2025 Highlighted Research See page 17 for analyst certification and important disclosures. 2025 Mid-Year Outlook A 5-minute read of what you need to know. In this edition of Highlighted Research, we present the key takeaways from our 2025 Mid-Year Outlook, which was released on June 25th . 2025 Mid-Year Outlook (Global Research, et al. | June 25, 2025) The full suite of Mid-Year Outlooks can be accessed on J.P. Morgan Markets here. REPLAY | WEBINAR: 2025 Mid-Year Outl ...

| 大类资产早报 | | --- | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/27 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/06/26 | 4.243 | 4.471 | 3.247 | 2.568 | 3.451 | 3.210 | 0.377 | 3.261 | | 最新变化 | -0.050 | -0.009 | -0.010 | 0.004 | -0.025 | -0.017 | -0.010 | -0.033 | | 一周变化 | -0.150 | -0.058 | -0.024 | 0.048 | -0.070 | 0.034 | 0.064 | -0.058 | | 一月变化 | -0.237 | -0.255 | 0.024 | 0.015 | -0.083 | 0.056 | 0.1 ...

Global Macro Research June 23, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy US Rates We continue to find value at the front end but look for higher yields to add duration as money markets are pricing in earlier and more aggressive Fed easing than our own forecast, and carry remains unattractive. Add tactical 10s/30s flatteners to position given curves look steep to fair value. We think Treasury will increase coupon auction size increases in February 2026, but Treasury may choose to forgo increases to longer-end a ...

【海外债市】 北美市场方面，当地时间周三（6月25日），美债收益率全线走低，2年期美债收益率跌4.02BPs报 3.7786%，3年期美债收益率跌1.14BPs报3.7484%，5年期美债收益率跌1.59BP报3.845%，10年期美债收 益率跌0.59BP报4.2906%，30年期美债收益率跌0.31BP报4.8311%。 新华财经北京6月26日电（王菁）债市周四（6月26日）稍回暖，国债期货主力多数收平，银行间现券收 益率回落1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放3058亿元，临近季末，资金利率涨跌互现，月内品种仍延续上 行。 机构认为，总量工具观察期，维持流动性充裕诉求下，预计MLF、买断式逆回购等常规流动性工具将 维持净投放。央行净投放展示呵护态度，但季末资金面仍存扰动，机构交易偏谨慎。债市关键变量仍然 缺位，震荡格局难免。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数持平，30年期主力合约涨0.10%报120.720，10年期主力合约跌0.02%报108.950，5年 期主力合约持平于106.170，2年期主力合约持平于102.510。 银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷下行。截至发稿，30年期国债"25超长特别国债02"收益率 ...

Group 1 - Financial markets experienced increased volatility, with short-term government bonds becoming the preferred choice for risk-averse investors as traders continued to ramp up expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][4] - The yield curve is steepening, indicating a consensus that short-term bond yields will decline faster than long-term yields, reflecting expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy and concerns over future government bond supply [4] - Despite a disappointing auction of $70 billion in five-year government bonds, the prevailing expectation of interest rate cuts continues to dominate market direction [4] Group 2 - Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Bowman, have signaled a dovish stance, suggesting that if inflation continues to improve, rate cuts could begin as early as July, leading to significant adjustments in the interest rate swap market [4] - However, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell maintained a cautious tone, emphasizing the need for more observation regarding the impact of trade policies on consumer prices, reiterating that the Fed will not act hastily [5]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities recently released a research report on U.S. Treasury bonds, analyzing the characteristics and behavioral logic of U.S. Treasury investors from the demand side, and forecasting the market supply-demand pattern for the second half of 2025 [1][4]. Investor Structure and Behavior - Global investors currently hold over $26 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds, with international and overseas investors holding $8.6 trillion, accounting for 33% of total holdings, making them the largest buyers [3]. - Broad-based mutual funds hold $5 trillion, representing nearly 20% of the total, while the Federal Reserve is projected to hold $3.8 trillion by the end of 2024, accounting for about 15% [3]. - The combined holdings of these three categories consistently exceed 60% [3]. - Other investors include individual investors, commercial banks, state and local governments, pension funds, and insurance companies, ranked by their holding sizes [3]. Motivations and Strategies - The Federal Reserve, as a policy-driven institution, primarily uses medium to long-term bonds, with its buying and selling actions directly linked to balance sheet adjustment goals [3]. - Overseas official institutions' bond purchasing decisions are influenced by factors such as exchange rates, trade balance, and financial stability, often showing a negative correlation with the U.S. dollar index [3]. - Private sector investors tend to engage in carry trades for returns, while U.S. residents exhibit a "buy high, sell low" behavior, dynamically reallocating between stocks and bonds [3]. - Hedge funds prefer basis trading strategies, while commercial banks' bond purchases are significantly affected by loan-to-deposit ratios and maturity structures [3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve may conclude its balance sheet reduction process by the end of the year and potentially halt its reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings [4]. - Overseas official institutions are expected to have limited motivation to reduce holdings in a weak dollar environment, although the declining attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries as a safe asset poses a significant risk [4]. - Private institutions face pressure from dollar depreciation, which could diminish the yield advantage of U.S. Treasuries if they engage in currency hedging [4]. - U.S. residents are less likely to significantly increase their allocation to U.S. Treasuries due to the relative attractiveness of U.S. equities [4]. - Demand from commercial banks is expected to improve, benefiting from steady deposit growth, a steepening yield curve, and potential loosening of supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rules [4]. - Pension funds and mutual funds are projected to maintain stable growth in holdings, driven by asset allocation needs and market preference trends [4]. - Huatai's team believes that the U.S. Treasury market will exhibit structurally differentiated demand characteristics in the second half of 2025, with policy adjustments, exchange rate fluctuations, and asset allocation shifts being key variables [4].