Core Insights - TrendForce has revised the global capital expenditure (CapEx) growth rate for the top eight North American cloud service providers (CSPs) from 61% to 65% for 2025, with expectations of exceeding $600 billion in total CapEx by 2026, reflecting a 40% year-on-year increase driven by AI infrastructure growth [1][3] Group 1: CSPs Capital Expenditure - The eight major CSPs include Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu [3] - Google has raised its 2025 CapEx forecast to $91-93 billion to meet the surging demand for AI data centers and cloud computing [3] - Meta has also increased its 2025 CapEx to $70-72 billion, with significant growth expected in 2026 [3] - Amazon has adjusted its 2025 CapEx estimate to $125 billion, while Microsoft anticipates higher CapEx in 2026 compared to 2025 [3] Group 2: Impact on AI Hardware and Supply Chain - The increase in CapEx by CSPs is expected to boost demand for AI servers, driving growth in upstream supply chains such as GPU/ASIC, memory, and packaging materials, as well as downstream systems like liquid cooling modules and power supplies [3][4] - NVIDIA's integrated solutions are projected to gain stronger growth momentum due to the increased CapEx from CSPs, with expected shipments of GB300 and VR200 models surpassing previous forecasts [4] - Oracle is expected to benefit significantly from North American government projects and cloud AI database leasing services [4] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA plans to launch a new generation of VR200 Rack, while AMD will promote its Helios integrated solution, which includes Venice CPU and MI400 GPU [4] - Meta is set to adopt both NVIDIA's GB/VR Rack and its self-developed ASIC solutions, planning a substantial 65% increase in its 2026 CapEx to $118 billion [5]

Core Insights - The article highlights the upward revision of capital expenditure (CapEx) growth for major North American Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) from 61% to 65% for 2025, with expectations of further growth to over $600 billion in 2026, reflecting the long-term growth potential of AI infrastructure [2][4]. Group 1: Capital Expenditure Trends - The eight major CSPs include Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu. Google has raised its 2025 CapEx forecast to $91-93 billion to meet the increasing demand for AI data centers and cloud computing [4]. - Meta has also increased its 2025 CapEx to $70-72 billion, indicating significant growth in 2026 [4]. - Amazon has adjusted its 2025 CapEx estimate to $125 billion, while Microsoft expects its 2026 CapEx to exceed that of 2025 [5]. Group 2: Impact on AI Hardware Ecosystem - The surge in CapEx is expected to stimulate demand for AI servers, driving growth in upstream supply chains such as GPU/ASIC, memory, packaging materials, and downstream systems like liquid cooling modules and power supplies [5][6]. - NVIDIA is anticipated to benefit significantly from this CapEx growth, with expected shipments of its GB300 and VR200 products surpassing previous forecasts, primarily driven by the top five North American CSPs [5]. - Oracle is expected to see substantial growth due to demand from North American government projects and cloud AI database leasing services [5]. Group 3: Future Developments in AI Solutions - The market is expected to adopt integrated AI solutions more aggressively in 2026, with NVIDIA planning to launch a new generation of VR200 racks [6]. - Competitor AMD is also set to promote its Helios integrated solutions, with Meta and Oracle being among the first adopters [6]. - Meta plans to significantly increase its CapEx by 65% to $118 billion in 2026 to support its initiatives in NVIDIA's GB/VR Rack and self-developed ASIC solutions [6].

苏姿丰指出，"我们的数据中心人工智能业务正在进入下一阶段的增长，在 2026 年推出 MI400 系列加速器和 Helios 机架级解决方案之前，客户需求正在 迅速增强。MI400 系列将新的计算引擎与行业领先的内存容量和先进的网络功能相结合，可以为要求最苛刻的 AI 训练和推理工作负载提供性能的重大飞 跃。MI400 系列汇集了我们的芯片、软件和系统专业知识，为 Helios 机架级AI平台提供支持，旨在重新定义数据中心规模的性能和效率。" 目前，AMD 的 MI400 系列已经与甲骨文和美国能源部达成了多项协议，甲骨文（Oracle）和美国能源部将采购数万颗MI450和MI430X加速器。 在人工智能（AI）方面，苏姿丰还重申其基于 Instinct MI400 AI 加速器和"Venice"CPU 的Helios 机架级解决方案将会在2026年正式发布。 根据AMD披露的数据显示，"Venice"CPU将基于2nm制程，拥有多达256个内核，CPU到GPU的互联带宽将达到上一代的两倍，CPU性能将提升70%，内存 带宽也将高达1.6TB/s。Instinct MI400 系列则带来高达 40PFLOPs ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on TSMC (TSM.US) with a target price of NT$1,275, citing significant increases in CoWoS capacity projections for 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: TSMC Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 95,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 and further increase to 112,000 wafers per month by the end of 2027, which is a notable upgrade from previous forecasts [1] - The expansion is primarily driven by the planned capacity construction of the AP8 factory, expected to commence production in mid-2026, alongside sustained demand from key clients such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD [1] - From the second half of 2026, full-stack CoWoS packaging orders for non-AI products will begin to shift to OSAT partners, mainly ASE, allowing TSMC to focus more on the CoW (Chip-on-Wafer) segment [1] Group 2: Client Demand Insights - Broadcom is projected to have a CoWoS allocation of 185,000 wafers in 2026, representing a 93% year-over-year increase, driven mainly by demand from Google's TPU project [2] - Morgan Stanley estimates that TPU shipments will reach 2.5 million units in 2026, a 38% increase year-over-year, with additional contributions from Meta's first CoWoS-based ASIC (Athena) and OpenAI's ASIC projects [2] - NVIDIA's demand is expected to remain robust in the first half of 2026 due to increased chip sizes and strong B300 demand, with an estimated production of 2.9 million Rubin GPUs [3] Group 3: AMD's Growth Dynamics - AMD's CoWoS demand is expected to remain stable in 2025 but will grow in 2026 with the ramp-up of MI400/MI450 series and Venice CPU, which utilize HBM and CoWoS-S packaging [4] - The adoption rate of MI400/450 (using CoWoS-L) will be a key variable for AMD's growth trajectory, while the company plans to expand 2.5D/wafers-level fan-out packaging applications in gaming GPUs and high-end server/PC CPUs in 2026/27 [4]