证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 05 月 08 日 伯特利（603596.SH） 1Q25 营收维持高增长，盈利能力短期承压 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 7,474 | 9,937 | 12,989 | 16,527 | 21,085 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 34.9 | 33.0 | 30.7 | 27.2 | 27.6 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 891 | 1,209 | 1,523 | 1,925 | 2,520 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 27.6 | 35.6 | 26.0 | 26.4 | 30.9 | | ROE（%） | 15.0 | 17.6 | 18.8 | 19.4 | 20.6 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 1.47 | 1.99 | 2.51 | 3.17 | 4.16 | | P/E（倍） | 39.7 | 29.3 | 23.2 | 18.4 | 14.0 | | ...

线控底盘布局加速，新领域增长潜力大：（1）24 年公司机械转向产品销量288.65万套，同比+23.8%， 万达净利率6.7%，同比+2.3pp，整合成效显著；DP-EPS、R-EPS 转向系统、线控转向系统的研发工作 顺利推进中。（2）在汽车线控底盘的方向上，结合客户项目的具体需求，分步开展线控制动、线控转 向、主动悬架等集成控制的开发工作，已完成空气悬架完成B 样开发验证，底盘系统布局加速。（3） 智能驾驶领域，公司积极推广已有的L2 及L2+级别ADAS 产品的商业化，并在行泊一体化域控制器、 高精地图、智能算法等方面展开研发。 盈利预测与投资建议。预计公司2025-2027 年EPS 分别为2.49/3.27/4.18 元，对应PE 为24/18/14 倍，归母 净利润CAGR 为28%，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：竞争加剧的风险；新产品推广不及预期的风险；海外市场风险等。 事件：公司发布2025年一季报，25Q1实现营收26.38亿元，同比+41.8%，环比-21.5%；归母净利润2.7亿 元，同比+28.8%，环比-37.3%。 Q1营收增长亮眼，盈利能力有所承压：25Q1 公司主要客户销量实现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The company has achieved significant growth in its intelligent electronic control business, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, driven by core customers' production increases [5][6]. - The integration of chassis systems has shown remarkable progress, with new products and production capacity expected to contribute to a second growth curve for the company [2][5]. - The company has successfully expanded its customer base, adding eight new clients in 2024, which strengthens its growth potential [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 9.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.95%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.209 billion yuan, up 35.60% [5][7]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows mechanical braking, intelligent electronic control, and mechanical steering products generating revenues of 4.449 billion yuan, 4.530 billion yuan, and 0.559 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 21.14%, with a slight decrease attributed to the ramp-up of lightweight product capacity [5][10]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.072 billion yuan, 16.581 billion yuan, and 20.350 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7][8]. - The expected net profit for the same years is 1.540 billion yuan, 1.957 billion yuan, and 2.451 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 2.54 yuan, 3.23 yuan, and 4.04 yuan [8][10]. - The report anticipates a gradual decline in revenue growth rates, projecting 31.56% for 2025, 26.84% for 2026, and 22.73% for 2027 [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 67.50 CNY, based on a projected PE ratio of 27 times for 2025 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing significant growth in its smart electric control products, with new customer acquisitions contributing to this expansion [2]. - The financial performance for 2024 aligns with expectations, showing a revenue of 99.37 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 33.0%, and a net profit of 12.09 billion CNY, up 35.6% [9]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and exploring new markets, including intelligent driving and humanoid robotics [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 130.11 billion CNY, 159.62 billion CNY, and 196.98 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 30.9%, 22.7%, and 23.4% [5]. - The net profit for the same period is forecasted to be 15.18 billion CNY, 18.63 billion CNY, and 22.98 billion CNY, reflecting growth rates of 25.6%, 22.8%, and 23.3% [3][5]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize around 22.0% to 22.5% from 2025 to 2027 [5]. Customer and Market Expansion - The company has successfully added eight new clients, including notable names in the North American market, bringing the total client count to 50 [9]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product offerings and has a robust pipeline of projects, with 430 projects under research and 309 new projects entering mass production [9]. Production Capacity and Future Plans - The company plans to increase its production capacity significantly, including 100,000 sets per year for floating calipers and 150,000 sets for EPB calipers by 2025 [9]. - The company is also exploring mergers and acquisitions in the intelligent chassis and driving sectors to create business synergies [9].