波段交易

Search documents
平安鑫惠90天持有期债券基金经理田元强:积极拥抱票息资产 偏多思维参与波段交易
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 06:47
Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy conference held by Ping An Fund highlighted the importance of embracing interest-bearing assets and participating in wave trading for the second half of 2025, while closely monitoring policy changes and economic data for effective risk management [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, but the internal momentum remains relatively weak. Real estate investment continues to drag, manufacturing investment is weak, and infrastructure investment, while gaining traction, is limited in strength. Consumer spending has rebounded with policy support, but overall growth still needs improvement [1]. - Exports are stable overall, but the growth rate is subject to significant fluctuations. Inflation indicators such as CPI and PPI are weak, reflecting insufficient total demand and low capacity utilization, resulting in limited inflationary pressure [1]. Monetary Policy and Market Environment - The central bank's goals have not yet adjusted, with maintaining growth and structural adjustments as primary objectives. Following the recent cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates, the cost of funds has effectively decreased, and weak credit may lead to continued monetary easing. Additionally, a reduction in deposit rates is anticipated to maintain bank interest margins [1][2]. - The bond market is currently in a favorable environment characterized by stable but weak fundamentals and a prudent monetary policy. The stability of the credit assets in the medium to short term can provide reliable interest income and arbitrage value [2]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities during market adjustments to accumulate interest income. The long-term assets, while stable, are unlikely to exceed expectations, and external demand pressures are expected to increase in the second half of the year due to export effects [2]. - Active participation in wave trading is recommended, as each market panic adjustment may present gaming value for investors [2].
5万到上千万!他说:别人赚钱我也赚,别人亏钱我睡觉
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-03 23:45
Core Insights - The article narrates the trading journey of Mr. Zhang, who transitioned from a stable job in aluminum trading to the volatile futures market, facing multiple setbacks before achieving consistent profitability [1][3][4]. Trading Journey - Mr. Zhang began trading in 2005, initially facing significant challenges, including four account liquidations over seven years, resulting in total losses of 200,000 yuan [3][4]. - In 2012, he restarted with a 50,000 yuan capital and gradually established a profitable trading strategy, achieving a remarkable 485% profit in 2015 [4][5]. Key to Sustained Profitability - Mr. Zhang emphasizes the importance of patience and risk management, suggesting that traders should minimize losses during sideways markets and maximize gains during trending markets [5][6]. - He believes that taking breaks after losses is crucial for maintaining a healthy mindset and improving trading performance [5][6]. Trading Methodology - Mr. Zhang advocates for focusing on a few specific trading instruments, primarily in sectors like non-ferrous metals, stock indices, and agricultural products, to enhance expertise and risk management [9]. - He employs a strategy of entering trades at optimal points where the risk-reward ratio is favorable, often using technical indicators to identify these points [9][10]. Position Management - His trading approach includes a four-step process: trial position, building position, adding to position, and exiting [11][12]. - He highlights the significance of adjusting position sizes based on market conditions and personal risk tolerance, especially during periods of volatility [11][12]. Reflections and Learning - Mr. Zhang regularly reviews his trading performance to identify strengths and weaknesses, reinforcing the idea that continuous learning and adaptation are vital for success in trading [13][14]. - He stresses the importance of finding a trading style that aligns with one's personality and strengths, advocating for specialization rather than attempting to master all trading techniques [6][7].
【高燃预警】当龟兔赛跑照进投资,这次,你站谁?
天天基金网· 2025-05-27 10:58
Core Viewpoint - The article promotes an upcoming live debate event titled "Tortoise and Hare Debate" organized by Tian Tian Fund and Huitianfu Fund, focusing on different investment strategies: long-term holding versus momentum trading [1][2]. Summary by Sections Event Details - The event features two representatives from Tian Tian Fund and two opinion leaders, divided into two camps: the "Wise Tortoise" advocating for long-term investment and compounding, and the "Agile Hare" favoring short-term trading and momentum [1][3]. Program Highlights - The event includes various segments such as a guessing game about indices, a debate on whether investment should be fast or slow, AI asset diagnostics, and a discussion on the choice between AI advisory and professional advisory services [3]. Engagement and Promotion - The article encourages readers to reserve their spots for the live event scheduled for May 28 at 14:00, promising more surprises during the broadcast [2].
债市震荡偏弱,上周纯债基金收益均值偏低,为何发行却火了?
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-05-27 06:40
Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with expectations for liquidity driven by recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, but the sentiment remains limited [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The bond market showed a fluctuating trend from May 19 to May 25, with adjustments in interest rate bonds and a slight compression in credit spreads [3]. - The average yield of medium to long-term pure bond funds was 0.08%, while short-term bond funds recorded an average yield of 0.05% [6]. - Major bond funds have seen significant fundraising activity, with 48 out of 85 newly established bond funds raising over 1 billion yuan, and 12 funds exceeding 5 billion yuan [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest maintaining duration allocation while increasing the proportion of swing trading due to the current market conditions [5][6]. - The market is focused on upcoming economic data, supply pressures, and changes in liquidity, but lacks factors that could lead to a trend-driven market [5]. - Following the recent interest rate cuts, there is an expectation that the central bank will continue to support liquidity, reducing concerns about significant increases in funding costs [7][8].
债市情绪面周报(5月第4周):降息为何难振债市情绪-20250526
Huaan Securities· 2025-05-26 09:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the bond market is difficult to break out of the shock range. After the deposit rate cut, the pressure on the bank's liability side has increased, and large - banks' capital lending is still scarce. The flow of deposits to non - bank institutions is beneficial to the bond market. The main concerns of the bond market are economic data such as May PMI, supply pressure, and the tightness of the capital side. However, it is difficult to have unexpected factors or trend - type market conditions. Investors should maintain the duration and increase the weight of band trading in the environment of low coupon and expensive funds [2]. - The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral to bullish. The sentiment in the Treasury futures market has increased significantly, and there is a positive arbitrage opportunity. Sellers' view is that the interest - rate cut is difficult to boost bond - market sentiment, and the bulls are further loosening, with more than 60% holding a neutral view. Buyers' view is that the proportion of institutions seeing a shock in the market has also increased [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Seller and Buyer Markets 3.1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted tracking index this week is 0.19, with a neutral - to - bullish market view, up 0.01 from last week. The unweighted tracking index is 0.28, remaining unchanged from last week. Currently, 30% of institutions are bullish, 63% are neutral, and 7% are bearish [12]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The tracking sentiment index this week is 0.23, with a neutral - to - bullish market view, up 0.05 from last week. Currently, 35% of institutions are bullish, 62% are neutral, and 3% are bearish [13]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot - topics are deposit rate cuts and science - and - technology bond support policies. Deposit rate cuts may cause deposit transfers and benefit short - and medium - term credit bonds. The science - and - technology bond support policy promotes issuance and improves liquidity [18]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view. 27% of institutions are bullish, and 73% are neutral [19]. 3.2 Treasury Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices have risen across the board. As of May 23, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.41 yuan, 106.05 yuan, 108.85 yuan, and 119.60 yuan respectively, up 0.03 yuan, 0.33 yuan, 0.37 yuan, and 0.69 yuan from last Friday. - Treasury futures' open interest has increased across the board. As of May 23, the open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 101,000 lots, 119,000 lots, 164,000 lots, and 89,000 lots respectively, with an increase of 17,269 lots, 39,584 lots, 64,352 lots, and 38,747 lots from last Friday. - Treasury futures' trading volume has decreased across the board. As of May 23, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 100.7 billion yuan, 77.3 billion yuan, 108.6 billion yuan, and 112.3 billion yuan respectively, with a decrease of 32.2 billion yuan, 21.2 billion yuan, 22.5 billion yuan, and 43.3 billion yuan from last Friday. - The trading - to - open - interest ratio of Treasury futures has decreased across the board. As of May 23, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading - to - open - interest ratios of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 0.53, 0.80, 0.86, and 1.78 respectively, down 0.48, 0.17, 0.17, and 0.80 from last Friday [24][25]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year Treasury bonds has increased. On May 23, the turnover rate was 2.63%, up 0.31 percentage points from last week and from Monday, with a weekly average turnover rate of 2.50%. - The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has decreased. On May 23, the turnover rate was 0.84%, down 0.05 percentage points from last week and 0.16 percentage points from Monday. - The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has decreased. On May 23, the turnover rate was 5.09%, down 0.71 percentage points from last week and 1.15 percentage points from Monday [36][38]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - In terms of basis, the basis of the T main contract has narrowed, while the basis of other main contracts has widened. As of May 23, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts are - 0.10 yuan, + 0.21 yuan, - 0.08 yuan, and + 0.46 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.03 yuan, + 0.16 yuan, - 0.18 yuan, and + 0.29 yuan from last Friday. - In terms of net basis, the net basis of main contracts has widened. As of May 23, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts are - 0.10 yuan, - 0.14 yuan, - 0.07 yuan, and - 0.04 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.05 yuan, - 0.17 yuan, - 0.09 yuan, and - 0.07 yuan from last Friday. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of main contracts has increased. As of May 23, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts are 1.90%, 2.00%, 1.82%, 1.67% respectively, up 0.11%, 0.69%, 0.36%, 0.29% from last Friday. The basis of the TS main contract is negative this week, and the weekly average of IRR is 1.82%, at a relatively high level. With the overall phased relaxation of the capital side this week, the weekly average of DR007 is 1.58%. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS contract [43][46]. 3.2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - In terms of inter - delivery spread, the spreads of main futures contracts have widened. As of May 23, the spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts (near - month - far - month) are - 0.16 yuan, - 0.30 yuan, - 0.28 yuan, - 0.68 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.05 yuan, - 0.10 yuan, - 0.11 yuan, - 0.34 yuan from last Friday. - In terms of inter - variety spread, the spreads of 2*TF - T and 3*T - TL contracts have widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts have narrowed. As of May 23, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, 3*T - TL are 98.76 yuan, 103.24 yuan, 300.75 yuan, 206.97 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.28 yuan, + 0.31 yuan, - 0.26 yuan, + 0.47 yuan from last Friday. Currently, the downward space of long - term interest rates is limited. If the central bank takes measures to ease liquidity, there may be a downward opportunity for the medium - and short - term. There is considerable gaming space in short - term Treasury futures. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on the short - end and short on the long - end to steepen the yield curve [53].
国债期货全线下跌,30年国债ETF博时(511130)交投活跃,近5个交易日内有4日资金净流入
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-23 04:04
截至5月22日,30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨15.29%,指数债券型基金排名3/378,居于前0.79%。从收益能力看,截至2025年5月22日,30年国债ETF博时 自成立以来,最高单月回报为5.35%,最长连涨月数为4个月,最长连涨涨幅为10.58%,涨跌月数比为9/4,上涨月份平均收益率为2.20%,月盈利百分比为 69.23%,月盈利概率为71.48%,历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至2025年5月22日,30年国债ETF博时近6个月超越基准年化收益为0.29%。 截至2025年5月16日,30年国债ETF博时近1年夏普比率为1.01。 回撤方面,截至2025年5月22日,30年国债ETF博时成立以来最大回撤6.89%,相对基准回撤1.28%。 费率方面,30年国债ETF博时管理费率为0.15%,托管费率为0.05%。 ETF方面,30年国债ETF博时(511130)下跌0.15%,最新报价111.61元。流动性方面,30年国债ETF博时盘中换手13.12%,成交8.87亿元,市场交投活跃。拉 长时间看,截至5月22日,30年国债ETF博时近1月日均成交25.59亿元。 利率债方面,中 ...
【UNFX课堂】外汇选择适合自己交易风格的货币对
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-05 08:49
Group 1 - The article provides a step-by-step guide for selecting currency pairs based on different trading styles, emphasizing the need for alignment between trading style and currency characteristics [1][2][5]. - Day trading is characterized by short holding periods, relying on technical analysis for small profit margins, with recommended pairs including EUR/USD and USD/JPY due to their high liquidity and low spreads [2][4]. - Swing trading focuses on capturing medium-term trends over days to weeks, with suitable pairs like AUD/USD and GBP/USD driven by fundamental factors such as commodity prices and policy expectations [5][7][8]. Group 2 - Carry trade involves long-term positions to earn interest rate differentials, favoring high-yield currencies while managing exchange rate risks [12][15]. - Event-driven trading capitalizes on market reactions to economic data releases, with pairs like USD/JPY and USD/TRY being highlighted for their volatility during such events [4][22]. - Algorithmic trading strategies include statistical arbitrage, monitoring price discrepancies between currency pairs, and utilizing low-latency execution for optimal performance [14][15][26]. Group 3 - The article outlines a five-step self-assessment method for traders to evaluate their risk tolerance, time commitment, and tool compatibility when selecting currency pairs [17][19][21]. - Recommended currency pairs for different trading styles include EUR/USD and XAU/USD for day trading, AUD/USD and GBP/USD for swing trading, and AUD/JPY and USD/ZAR for carry trading, each with specific risk management parameters [21][22][23]. - Common pitfalls for novice traders include mismatching trading styles with currency pairs, overlooking overnight costs, and overtrading less liquid pairs [24][25][26].
82倍财富增长背后的策略秘密:揭秘顶级富豪交易员的高胜率交易系统
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-04 03:20
在《8年狂翻8800倍!无名交易员靠"波段奇迹"改写命运,他的暴富密码竟然如此简单》一文中,我们分享过瑞典普通交易员——克里斯蒂安·库拉马基 (Kristjan Kullamägi)的交易故事:凭借出色的#波段交易技巧,他在2013年至2021年间将账户资金从9100美元增长到超过8000万美元,一跃跻身瑞典收 入排名前15的顶尖富豪。然而,许多读者在阅读后纷纷私信表示遗憾,认为文章并未透露库拉马基的具体交易策略,并强烈希望我们进一步深入挖掘这位 传奇交易员实现逆袭的核心方法。 今天,我们将带大家一步一步深入解析克里斯蒂安·库拉马基的交易获利秘诀,力求还原他实现财富增长背后的关键方法,也希望这些内容能为广大读者 带来启发与帮助。 ▍交易初期之路 克里斯蒂安于 2011 年开始作为日内交易员进入市场。据报道,他在最初的几年里曾爆仓四次。这是一条许多交易新手都经历过的典型道路——我自己也 不例外,我永远不会忘记我第一次爆仓的经历。 不过,后来他从低时间周期的交易逐步转向更高时间周期的交易,并最终成为一名#波段交易员。促使他离开低周期交易的一个重要原因,是他发现持仓 时间拉长后,机会反而更多。 事实上,许多以方向性 ...
【笔记20241217— 中美关系或是2025最大预期差】
债券笔记· 2024-12-17 13:39
我们也不要自认为聪明,凭着感觉想做个先卖后买的波段交易。想法是好的,但是如果你真这样做了,先卖出做空,欲等待调整后再上车,但是,你卖出 后的心态是会改变的,尤其是逆大势大概率踏空之后,就会在懊悔中难以再上车,于是踏空后面更大的行情。 ——笔记哥《交易》 【笔记20241217— 中美关系或是2025最大预期差(+股市弱势-资金面偏紧转松=微上)】 资金面偏紧转松,长债收益率小幅上行。 央行今日公开市场开展3554亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率为1.50%。今日1416亿元逆回购到期。净投放2138亿元。 上午资金面偏紧张,午后逐渐转松,资金利率仍偏贵。 俄罗斯国家杜马表示:支持在俄全国推广食品券制度。哎,这战打的,把"粮票"都打出来了,这是要和朝鲜并轨的节奏的啊。 今天看到特朗普表示"美中联手可以解决世界上所有问题",新华社对此都做了报道。考虑到老特的思维更偏商人而非政客,意识形态的东西也不多,2025 年基本面的预期差没准儿真能来自于中美关系,等到明年这个时候再一看,"大力提振"的足球、消费、投资继续拉胯,而"无人看好"的出口再超预期,大 家纷纷感叹"一致预期都是错的",这剧本如何? 真心希望地球的各位大佬 ...