新华财经北京1月7日电债市周三（1月7日）持续承压，银行间现券收益率早间短暂回落后再度转升，国 债期货主力全线收跌；公开市场单日净回笼5002亿元，资金利率表现分化。 机构认为，年初货币宽松预期不强，叠加供给压力等忧虑施压下，债市走势偏弱。不过，央行支持性态 度不变，套息策略占优，或可小仓位参与调整后的波段交易，注重逆向操作。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.44%报110.47，10年期主力合约跌0.08%报107.61，5年期 主力合约跌0.06%报105.5，2年期主力合约跌0.03%报102.332。 银行间主要利率债收益率早间短暂下行后再度转升，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率上行1.15BP报 1.99%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率上行0.75BP报1.891%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益 率上行1.2BP报2.322%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.30%，报507.28点，成交金额920.81亿元。鼎龙转债、安集转债、精测转2、阳 谷转债、崧盛转债涨幅居前，分别涨11.08%、10.02%、8.07%、7.83%、7.53%。联创转债、塞力转 ...

恒立基金创始人、总经理潘焕焕：可转债仍然是2026年固收市场最看好的品种，一是继续看好权益市场；二是大量转债在2025年到期或赎回，供给将长期 处于低位，2026年将呈现供不应求的格局；三是"资产荒"加剧使得转债的吸引力进一步提升。 宁水资本研究总监陈昭斌：我们对明年债市整体是比较乐观的，2026年债市有望迎来震荡修复的行情。目前30年的房贷利率和30年期国债收益率的利差较 低，对于银行、保险等配置型机构已具有一定的吸引力，债市的长期配置动能正在不断累积。 复盘2025年：央行政策、关税影响、"反内卷"等因素超出预期 站在2025年年末，如何看待2025年债市变化？2026年债券市场有哪些投资机会？为回答上述问题，中国基金报采访了多家知名私募投研掌门人。受访私募 机构人士包括银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳，万柏基金创始合伙人、总经理范强华，安佑基金执行董事兼总经理何玉涛，恒立基金创始人、总经理潘焕焕， 以及宁水资本研究总监陈昭斌。 受访私募主要观点如下： 银叶投资首席投资官许巳阳：2026年，预计难以看到利率单边下行趋势，长端利率继续宽幅震荡，长债有阶段性上行风险。利率债市场更看好中短端利率 品种表现，12月中央经 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 报告导读： 货 研 我们的观点：从全年的角度看，预计胶价重心稍抬，但上下空间皆有限制。从节奏来看，上半年与下半年供需节奏均呈现错 配，难以形成趋势性行情，可关注波动性机会。 究 所 我们的逻辑：从全年的角度看，随着东南亚主产区树龄老化，长期产能下降趋势不改（非洲胶增速高，但目前基数尚小，可 能较难抵消东南亚产区树龄老化导致的减产），而全球橡胶需求稳定增加，去库周期中 2026 年价格重心可能继续提高。但 目前东南亚产区原料产出仍有一定弹性，价格上涨依旧能刺激产出，可能抑制价格大幅上涨的空间。从节奏来看，上半年， 原料难跌，需求承压。供应端海内外低产季，预计泰国库存偏低，泰国、云南加工产能扩张继续托举原料价格。需求端上半 年外需面临欧盟双反导致乘用车胎出口大幅下滑的风险，内需面临购置税减半征收、以旧换新政策的透支效应。下半年，供 应端产出增加，需求端利好增多。若上半年出口因双反受创，下半年外需可能因企业逐渐开发欧盟之外的市场、找到转口贸 易渠道而改善。海外处于降息周期，国内提振消费的政策大方向不变，下半年内需有望在内外宏观利好下企稳。 投资展望：价格上下区间皆有限，全年供需节奏 ...

上证50指数，连续两个交易日的上涨之后，指数站上了日线级别的四条中长期均线上方，这四条中长期均线高度粘合，意味着指数到了临界点。目前的排 列来看，有助于大盘指数上涨。但是，最终还需要指数上涨才能确认中期调整最终结束。 周一早盘，沪深A股主要的大盘指数涨跌互现，盘面上看，多数个股下跌，人气低迷。周二午后，A股还有上行。 一、大盘指数分析 中午时间有限，重点分析上证50指数和创业板指数，下午收盘之后，再重点分析上证指数和科创50指数。 先分析上证50指数。 创业板指数，昨天上涨，高开高走，成交量放大，只是力度不够。不过，昨天的中阳线站上了日线级别的四条中短期均线，这几条均线粘合，释放了积极 信号。只要今天该指数继续上涨，走出不错的上涨幅度，成交量继续放大，就基本确认了波段上涨开始。 六十分钟级别的走势来看，走了昨天下午第二个小时，本段上涨走到了第九个有效周期，到了变盘节点，也走出了企稳K线。所以，今天早盘两个小时， 创业板指数继续上涨。午后，创业板指数有望继续上涨。 不荐股，只客观记录本人的分析，不作为买卖依据！ 六十分钟级别的走势来看，本段上涨，到早盘第二个小时为止，走到了第九个有效的周期，回踩了十单位均线，到 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Year - end allocation of ultra - long bonds is weak. The problem of insufficient ultra - long bond underwriting has intensified this week, driving up the 30Y Treasury bond rate. Although some institutions have increased their allocation, funds still have weak buying power due to redemption pressure [1][10]. - Banks' willingness to allocate ultra - long bonds in the secondary market has decreased due to primary underwriting and IRRBB assessment pressure. Insurance funds continue the trend of stock - bond rebalancing and focus on local bonds and long - term credit bonds [1]. - There are feasible paths to solve the ultra - long bond underwriting problem, such as controlling the duration of new government bonds, central bank's purchase of ultra - long Treasury bonds, guiding non - bank funds to participate in subscriptions, and reducing the pressure on banks' book interest rate risk indicators [2]. - The central bank maintains a supportive attitude. The carry trade strategy is dominant, and investors can moderately participate in band trading after adjustments [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the bond market sentiment was weak, with the 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond rates rising by 1bp and 7bp respectively. The market showed different trends on different days due to factors such as PMI data, stock market performance, and policy expectations [9]. - The allocation of ultra - long bonds at the year - end is weak. Banks' willingness to allocate ultra - long bonds in the secondary market has decreased, and insurance funds focus on local bonds and long - term credit bonds [1][10]. - There are feasible paths to solve the ultra - long bond underwriting problem, and the central bank's supportive attitude remains unchanged. The carry trade strategy is dominant, and investors can moderately participate in band trading [2][24]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal, and funding rates declined. From December 1st to 5th, the central bank's net withdrawal was 8480 billion yuan. R007 and DR007 decreased by 3bp compared to November 28th [28][29]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first rose and then fell this week. Except for the 1Y and 3Y Treasury bonds, the rates of other key - term Treasury bonds increased. The 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields rose by 1bp and 7bp respectively compared to November 28th [37]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond term spread widened significantly, and the duration of bond funds decreased. The 30Y Treasury bond weekly turnover rate continued to rise to 35%, and the inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.3% [43]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased compared to last week. The net financing of Treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds and policy - bank bonds decreased. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit turned positive, and the average issuance rate increased [57][63]. 3.3 Economic Data - Since December, movie consumption has been significantly stronger than seasonal trends, and the freight rate index has weakened. Real estate, consumption, export, and industrial production show different trends [69]. - Infrastructure and price high - frequency data show that the mill operation rate has rebounded, inventory indicators have continued to decline marginally, and most price indicators have increased [72]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - US consumer confidence slightly increased in December, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has risen. US bonds, Japanese and Korean bond markets declined. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread widened, and the Sino - US 10Y Treasury bond spread widened [77][78][81]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index rebounded this week. Shanghai copper rose significantly, and the Nanhua live - hog index weakened. The performance of major asset classes is: Shanghai copper > rebar > Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 > Shanghai gold > CSI 1000 > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > crude oil > Chinese bonds > convertible bonds > US dollar > live hogs [82]. 3.6 Policy Review - On December 5th, relevant policies such as the adjustment of insurance company risk factors, the management method of financial leasing company business, and articles on capital market development were released. On December 4th, an article on the construction of the monetary policy system was published. On December 1st, the list of infrastructure REITs project industries was released [86][90][91].

Core Insights - The article highlights the trading strategies and market analysis approach of Kuang Bolin, who emphasizes fundamental analysis in commodity trading, particularly in the context of the 2025 national futures trading competition [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Philosophy - Kuang Bolin's core trading philosophy is that commodity prices are ultimately determined by supply and demand [2]. - He believes that successful swing trading requires a deep understanding of the commodity's fundamentals, which serves as the basis for trading decisions [2]. Group 2: Market Analysis - In 2025, commodity prices were significantly influenced by policy expectations and market sentiment, especially in the black series commodities, which faced downward pressure due to high production capacity and weak downstream demand from real estate and infrastructure [1]. - Kuang Bolin noted that sectors with high industry concentration and existing losses, such as soda ash and glass, were particularly sensitive to policy expectations, leading to multiple instances of price rebounds despite an overall downward trend [1]. Group 3: Specific Commodity Insights - During the competition, Kuang Bolin profited mainly from trading egg futures, soda ash, and the shipping index [2]. - For egg futures, he analyzed key fundamental factors such as chicken stock levels, feed prices, and the behavior of farmers regarding restocking and culling [2]. - In 2025, the chicken stock levels remained historically high, and with relatively low feed prices, the supply-demand balance for eggs was skewed towards oversupply, leading him to short the egg futures contracts [2]. Group 4: Risk Management - Kuang Bolin maintains a cautious approach to position management, prioritizing capital safety and avoiding heavy single-sided trades [3]. - He adjusts his position size based on market conditions and risk tolerance, reducing exposure in uncertain markets and increasing it when clear trading opportunities arise, but without over-leveraging [3]. - His stop-loss strategy is triggered by significant changes in fundamentals, alterations in trading logic, chaotic market movements, or sudden emotional market shifts [3]. Group 5: Integration of Analysis - Kuang Bolin believes that combining the rational logic of fundamentals with the market heat of sentiment is essential for accurately capturing market dynamics and making informed trading decisions [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is currently experiencing intense long-short battles, contrasting with the anticipated one-sided bull market in 2024, as the market has been in a wide fluctuation pattern this year [1][2] - The ten-year government bond yield has fluctuated within a range close to 40 basis points, indicating increased difficulty in bond investments for banks [1][5] - The introduction of a new tax on bond interest income has led to a decrease in the attractiveness of certain bonds, prompting a potential reallocation of assets towards equities and other assets [2][5] Group 2: Trading Volume and Performance - In August, the total trading volume of bonds by major banks decreased to approximately 14.8 trillion yuan, down from 16.49 trillion yuan in July and 15.51 trillion yuan in June [3] - The trading volume for city commercial banks and rural commercial banks also saw a decline, totaling about 15.288 trillion yuan in August, compared to 17.24 trillion yuan in July [3] Group 3: Investment Returns and Contributions - Investment returns have been a significant support for bank revenues in the first half of the year, with 35 out of 42 A-share listed banks reporting positive year-on-year growth in investment income, averaging over 45% [7][8] - Notably, the China Construction Bank achieved an investment income of 279.12 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of over 200% [7] - The Postal Savings Bank was the only major bank with investment income exceeding 10% of its total revenue, achieving a growth of 64.64% [8] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Banks are adjusting their investment strategies in response to the current volatile market, focusing on flexible asset-liability management and increasing the use of derivatives for hedging [12][13] - The strategy includes maintaining a reasonable proportion of bond investments while actively capturing market fluctuations to enhance revenue [13] - Some banks have reported a shift towards wave trading and increased use of fixed-income-like assets to navigate the challenging market conditions [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing intense fluctuations, contrasting with the anticipated bull market in 2024, leading to increased investment difficulties for banks in 2023 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market is currently in a wide-ranging oscillation phase, with the ten-year government bond yield fluctuating within a range close to 40 basis points [1]. - After the implementation of the new tax regulations on government bond interest, the trading volume of existing bonds has seen a decline [3]. - In August, the total trading volume of bonds by major banks decreased to approximately 14.8 trillion yuan, down from 16.49 trillion yuan in July [4]. Group 2: Bank Performance and Strategies - In the first half of 2023, over 80% of A-share listed banks reported positive growth in investment income, with an average increase exceeding 45% [2][8]. - The investment income of listed banks in the first quarter and the first half of 2023 grew by 26.1% and 23.6% year-on-year, respectively [7]. - Major banks, including Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank, saw significant increases in their investment income, with Construction Bank achieving a 200% year-on-year growth [10]. Group 3: Challenges and Adjustments - The investment difficulties have led to a negative growth in non-interest income for many banks, attributed to the divergence in market interest rates [6]. - The limited floating profit space and the need for strategic adjustments in bond trading have become apparent, with banks shifting focus to more flexible and diversified asset-liability strategies [13][14]. - The second quarter showed signs of reduced "debt selling" efforts, indicating a tightening of floating profit inventory among banks [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market is currently focused on finding opportunities for rebound in oversold conditions, with a recommendation to engage in medium to long-term interest rate bonds for trading [1] - The recent bond market has experienced a noticeable upward fluctuation in yields, with a steepening yield curve, primarily due to stronger stock market performance and rising inflation or economic recovery expectations [1][1] - The investment strategy for credit bonds suggests focusing on high-grade, medium to short-term credit bonds to achieve stable interest income, as the yield fluctuations have been relatively small [1] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to remain in a weak oscillating pattern in the future, with upward pressure on bond prices due to sustained stock market performance and higher market risk appetite [1]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a significant decline in the bond market is low, supported by the political bureau meeting's emphasis on maintaining ample liquidity, indicating the central bank's intention to stabilize short-term liquidity [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.75% in the short term, with a recommendation to gradually increase allocation above 1.72%, prioritizing credit bonds over interest rate bonds and convertible bonds [1] - Historical experience suggests that bond market yield turning points typically precede stock market peaks, indicating that the current bullish sentiment in the stock market may not signal a sustained decline in the bond market [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) has consistently achieved new net asset value highs since its inception, with a one-year return of 5.88%, a three-year return of 16.13%, a five-year return of 22.41%, and a cumulative return of 36.68% since establishment [1] - The ETF has maintained positive returns every year since its inception, making it a potential asset allocation tool that can navigate through market cycles [1] Group 3: Unique Advantages of the ETF - The ETF offers T+0 trading convenience, allowing investors to buy and sell on the same day, which is beneficial in a high-volatility environment [2] - The ETF has low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [2] - The ETF provides transparency in holdings, with daily publication of the PCF list [3] - Investors can use the ETF for pledge repurchase, allowing them to access funds for other investment opportunities while retaining the ability to redeem the ETF later [3]