Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is currently experiencing intense long-short battles, contrasting with the anticipated one-sided bull market in 2024, as the market has been in a wide fluctuation pattern this year [1][2] - The ten-year government bond yield has fluctuated within a range close to 40 basis points, indicating increased difficulty in bond investments for banks [1][5] - The introduction of a new tax on bond interest income has led to a decrease in the attractiveness of certain bonds, prompting a potential reallocation of assets towards equities and other assets [2][5] Group 2: Trading Volume and Performance - In August, the total trading volume of bonds by major banks decreased to approximately 14.8 trillion yuan, down from 16.49 trillion yuan in July and 15.51 trillion yuan in June [3] - The trading volume for city commercial banks and rural commercial banks also saw a decline, totaling about 15.288 trillion yuan in August, compared to 17.24 trillion yuan in July [3] Group 3: Investment Returns and Contributions - Investment returns have been a significant support for bank revenues in the first half of the year, with 35 out of 42 A-share listed banks reporting positive year-on-year growth in investment income, averaging over 45% [7][8] - Notably, the China Construction Bank achieved an investment income of 279.12 billion yuan in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of over 200% [7] - The Postal Savings Bank was the only major bank with investment income exceeding 10% of its total revenue, achieving a growth of 64.64% [8] Group 4: Strategic Adjustments - Banks are adjusting their investment strategies in response to the current volatile market, focusing on flexible asset-liability management and increasing the use of derivatives for hedging [12][13] - The strategy includes maintaining a reasonable proportion of bond investments while actively capturing market fluctuations to enhance revenue [13] - Some banks have reported a shift towards wave trading and increased use of fixed-income-like assets to navigate the challenging market conditions [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing intense fluctuations, contrasting with the anticipated bull market in 2024, leading to increased investment difficulties for banks in 2023 [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The bond market is currently in a wide-ranging oscillation phase, with the ten-year government bond yield fluctuating within a range close to 40 basis points [1]. - After the implementation of the new tax regulations on government bond interest, the trading volume of existing bonds has seen a decline [3]. - In August, the total trading volume of bonds by major banks decreased to approximately 14.8 trillion yuan, down from 16.49 trillion yuan in July [4]. Group 2: Bank Performance and Strategies - In the first half of 2023, over 80% of A-share listed banks reported positive growth in investment income, with an average increase exceeding 45% [2][8]. - The investment income of listed banks in the first quarter and the first half of 2023 grew by 26.1% and 23.6% year-on-year, respectively [7]. - Major banks, including Construction Bank and Postal Savings Bank, saw significant increases in their investment income, with Construction Bank achieving a 200% year-on-year growth [10]. Group 3: Challenges and Adjustments - The investment difficulties have led to a negative growth in non-interest income for many banks, attributed to the divergence in market interest rates [6]. - The limited floating profit space and the need for strategic adjustments in bond trading have become apparent, with banks shifting focus to more flexible and diversified asset-liability strategies [13][14]. - The second quarter showed signs of reduced "debt selling" efforts, indicating a tightening of floating profit inventory among banks [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market is currently focused on finding opportunities for rebound in oversold conditions, with a recommendation to engage in medium to long-term interest rate bonds for trading [1] - The recent bond market has experienced a noticeable upward fluctuation in yields, with a steepening yield curve, primarily due to stronger stock market performance and rising inflation or economic recovery expectations [1][1] - The investment strategy for credit bonds suggests focusing on high-grade, medium to short-term credit bonds to achieve stable interest income, as the yield fluctuations have been relatively small [1] Group 2 - The bond market is expected to remain in a weak oscillating pattern in the future, with upward pressure on bond prices due to sustained stock market performance and higher market risk appetite [1]

Core Viewpoint - The probability of a significant decline in the bond market is low, supported by the political bureau meeting's emphasis on maintaining ample liquidity, indicating the central bank's intention to stabilize short-term liquidity [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.75% in the short term, with a recommendation to gradually increase allocation above 1.72%, prioritizing credit bonds over interest rate bonds and convertible bonds [1] - Historical experience suggests that bond market yield turning points typically precede stock market peaks, indicating that the current bullish sentiment in the stock market may not signal a sustained decline in the bond market [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The 10-year government bond ETF (511260) has consistently achieved new net asset value highs since its inception, with a one-year return of 5.88%, a three-year return of 16.13%, a five-year return of 22.41%, and a cumulative return of 36.68% since establishment [1] - The ETF has maintained positive returns every year since its inception, making it a potential asset allocation tool that can navigate through market cycles [1] Group 3: Unique Advantages of the ETF - The ETF offers T+0 trading convenience, allowing investors to buy and sell on the same day, which is beneficial in a high-volatility environment [2] - The ETF has low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency for investors [2] - The ETF provides transparency in holdings, with daily publication of the PCF list [3] - Investors can use the ETF for pledge repurchase, allowing them to access funds for other investment opportunities while retaining the ability to redeem the ETF later [3]

Group 1 - The establishment of Henan Zhongyu Port Tong Capital Investment Co., Ltd. and its subsidiary, Henan Zhongyu Port Tong (Private) Fund Management Co., Ltd., marks a significant development in the investment sector in Henan province [1] - As of June 30, the bond custody scale reached 48.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.3% [3] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 126 billion yuan of 7-year government bonds with a fixed interest rate of 1.79% [3] Group 2 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will implement a multinational corporate fund pool management policy nationwide and conduct pilot programs for green foreign debt policies [4] - The People's Bank of China reported a net liquidity injection of 100 billion yuan through MLF and 200 billion yuan through reverse repos in July [6] - Beijing's government is supporting financial institutions in innovating financial products to create a "stock-loan-bond insurance" linkage financial support system [6] Group 3 - Hainan province plans to issue local government bonds in Hong Kong and has formed an underwriting team for this purpose [8] - Three companies in Henan have been approved to register debt financing tools totaling 11.5 billion yuan [9][10] - Kaifeng Economic and Technological Development Group is set to issue 400 million yuan in short-term financing bonds with a subscription range of 1.50% to 2.50% [11] Group 4 - Zhongyuan Securities has been approved to issue company bonds totaling 2.5 billion yuan [12] - Shangqiu New City Construction Investment Group successfully issued 600 million yuan in company bonds with an interest rate of 2.92% [13] - Zhao Liang has been elected as the chairman of China Investment Guarantee Co., Ltd. [14]

Core Viewpoint - The investment strategy conference held by Ping An Fund highlighted the importance of embracing interest-bearing assets and participating in wave trading for the second half of 2025, while closely monitoring policy changes and economic data for effective risk management [1][2]. Economic Outlook - The economic fundamentals showed signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, but the internal momentum remains relatively weak. Real estate investment continues to drag, manufacturing investment is weak, and infrastructure investment, while gaining traction, is limited in strength. Consumer spending has rebounded with policy support, but overall growth still needs improvement [1]. - Exports are stable overall, but the growth rate is subject to significant fluctuations. Inflation indicators such as CPI and PPI are weak, reflecting insufficient total demand and low capacity utilization, resulting in limited inflationary pressure [1]. Monetary Policy and Market Environment - The central bank's goals have not yet adjusted, with maintaining growth and structural adjustments as primary objectives. Following the recent cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates, the cost of funds has effectively decreased, and weak credit may lead to continued monetary easing. Additionally, a reduction in deposit rates is anticipated to maintain bank interest margins [1][2]. - The bond market is currently in a favorable environment characterized by stable but weak fundamentals and a prudent monetary policy. The stability of the credit assets in the medium to short term can provide reliable interest income and arbitrage value [2]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged to seize opportunities during market adjustments to accumulate interest income. The long-term assets, while stable, are unlikely to exceed expectations, and external demand pressures are expected to increase in the second half of the year due to export effects [2]. - Active participation in wave trading is recommended, as each market panic adjustment may present gaming value for investors [2].

Core Insights - The article narrates the trading journey of Mr. Zhang, who transitioned from a stable job in aluminum trading to the volatile futures market, facing multiple setbacks before achieving consistent profitability [1][3][4]. Trading Journey - Mr. Zhang began trading in 2005, initially facing significant challenges, including four account liquidations over seven years, resulting in total losses of 200,000 yuan [3][4]. - In 2012, he restarted with a 50,000 yuan capital and gradually established a profitable trading strategy, achieving a remarkable 485% profit in 2015 [4][5]. Key to Sustained Profitability - Mr. Zhang emphasizes the importance of patience and risk management, suggesting that traders should minimize losses during sideways markets and maximize gains during trending markets [5][6]. - He believes that taking breaks after losses is crucial for maintaining a healthy mindset and improving trading performance [5][6]. Trading Methodology - Mr. Zhang advocates for focusing on a few specific trading instruments, primarily in sectors like non-ferrous metals, stock indices, and agricultural products, to enhance expertise and risk management [9]. - He employs a strategy of entering trades at optimal points where the risk-reward ratio is favorable, often using technical indicators to identify these points [9][10]. Position Management - His trading approach includes a four-step process: trial position, building position, adding to position, and exiting [11][12]. - He highlights the significance of adjusting position sizes based on market conditions and personal risk tolerance, especially during periods of volatility [11][12]. Reflections and Learning - Mr. Zhang regularly reviews his trading performance to identify strengths and weaknesses, reinforcing the idea that continuous learning and adaptation are vital for success in trading [13][14]. - He stresses the importance of finding a trading style that aligns with one's personality and strengths, advocating for specialization rather than attempting to master all trading techniques [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The article promotes an upcoming live debate event titled "Tortoise and Hare Debate" organized by Tian Tian Fund and Huitianfu Fund, focusing on different investment strategies: long-term holding versus momentum trading [1][2]. Summary by Sections Event Details - The event features two representatives from Tian Tian Fund and two opinion leaders, divided into two camps: the "Wise Tortoise" advocating for long-term investment and compounding, and the "Agile Hare" favoring short-term trading and momentum [1][3]. Program Highlights - The event includes various segments such as a guessing game about indices, a debate on whether investment should be fast or slow, AI asset diagnostics, and a discussion on the choice between AI advisory and professional advisory services [3]. Engagement and Promotion - The article encourages readers to reserve their spots for the live event scheduled for May 28 at 14:00, promising more surprises during the broadcast [2].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with expectations for liquidity driven by recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, but the sentiment remains limited [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - The bond market showed a fluctuating trend from May 19 to May 25, with adjustments in interest rate bonds and a slight compression in credit spreads [3]. - The average yield of medium to long-term pure bond funds was 0.08%, while short-term bond funds recorded an average yield of 0.05% [6]. - Major bond funds have seen significant fundraising activity, with 48 out of 85 newly established bond funds raising over 1 billion yuan, and 12 funds exceeding 5 billion yuan [7][8]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest maintaining duration allocation while increasing the proportion of swing trading due to the current market conditions [5][6]. - The market is focused on upcoming economic data, supply pressures, and changes in liquidity, but lacks factors that could lead to a trend-driven market [5]. - Following the recent interest rate cuts, there is an expectation that the central bank will continue to support liquidity, reducing concerns about significant increases in funding costs [7][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the bond market is difficult to break out of the shock range. After the deposit rate cut, the pressure on the bank's liability side has increased, and large - banks' capital lending is still scarce. The flow of deposits to non - bank institutions is beneficial to the bond market. The main concerns of the bond market are economic data such as May PMI, supply pressure, and the tightness of the capital side. However, it is difficult to have unexpected factors or trend - type market conditions. Investors should maintain the duration and increase the weight of band trading in the environment of low coupon and expensive funds [2]. - The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral to bullish. The sentiment in the Treasury futures market has increased significantly, and there is a positive arbitrage opportunity. Sellers' view is that the interest - rate cut is difficult to boost bond - market sentiment, and the bulls are further loosening, with more than 60% holding a neutral view. Buyers' view is that the proportion of institutions seeing a shock in the market has also increased [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Seller and Buyer Markets 3.1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The weighted tracking index this week is 0.19, with a neutral - to - bullish market view, up 0.01 from last week. The unweighted tracking index is 0.28, remaining unchanged from last week. Currently, 30% of institutions are bullish, 63% are neutral, and 7% are bearish [12]. 3.1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The tracking sentiment index this week is 0.23, with a neutral - to - bullish market view, up 0.05 from last week. Currently, 35% of institutions are bullish, 62% are neutral, and 3% are bearish [13]. 3.1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot - topics are deposit rate cuts and science - and - technology bond support policies. Deposit rate cuts may cause deposit transfers and benefit short - and medium - term credit bonds. The science - and - technology bond support policy promotes issuance and improves liquidity [18]. 3.1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - to - bullish view. 27% of institutions are bullish, and 73% are neutral [19]. 3.2 Treasury Futures Tracking 3.2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices have risen across the board. As of May 23, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.41 yuan, 106.05 yuan, 108.85 yuan, and 119.60 yuan respectively, up 0.03 yuan, 0.33 yuan, 0.37 yuan, and 0.69 yuan from last Friday. - Treasury futures' open interest has increased across the board. As of May 23, the open interest of TS/TF/T/TL contracts is 101,000 lots, 119,000 lots, 164,000 lots, and 89,000 lots respectively, with an increase of 17,269 lots, 39,584 lots, 64,352 lots, and 38,747 lots from last Friday. - Treasury futures' trading volume has decreased across the board. As of May 23, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 100.7 billion yuan, 77.3 billion yuan, 108.6 billion yuan, and 112.3 billion yuan respectively, with a decrease of 32.2 billion yuan, 21.2 billion yuan, 22.5 billion yuan, and 43.3 billion yuan from last Friday. - The trading - to - open - interest ratio of Treasury futures has decreased across the board. As of May 23, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading - to - open - interest ratios of TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 0.53, 0.80, 0.86, and 1.78 respectively, down 0.48, 0.17, 0.17, and 0.80 from last Friday [24][25]. 3.2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year Treasury bonds has increased. On May 23, the turnover rate was 2.63%, up 0.31 percentage points from last week and from Monday, with a weekly average turnover rate of 2.50%. - The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has decreased. On May 23, the turnover rate was 0.84%, down 0.05 percentage points from last week and 0.16 percentage points from Monday. - The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has decreased. On May 23, the turnover rate was 5.09%, down 0.71 percentage points from last week and 1.15 percentage points from Monday [36][38]. 3.2.3 Basis Trading - In terms of basis, the basis of the T main contract has narrowed, while the basis of other main contracts has widened. As of May 23, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts are - 0.10 yuan, + 0.21 yuan, - 0.08 yuan, and + 0.46 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.03 yuan, + 0.16 yuan, - 0.18 yuan, and + 0.29 yuan from last Friday. - In terms of net basis, the net basis of main contracts has widened. As of May 23, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts are - 0.10 yuan, - 0.14 yuan, - 0.07 yuan, and - 0.04 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.05 yuan, - 0.17 yuan, - 0.09 yuan, and - 0.07 yuan from last Friday. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of main contracts has increased. As of May 23, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts are 1.90%, 2.00%, 1.82%, 1.67% respectively, up 0.11%, 0.69%, 0.36%, 0.29% from last Friday. The basis of the TS main contract is negative this week, and the weekly average of IRR is 1.82%, at a relatively high level. With the overall phased relaxation of the capital side this week, the weekly average of DR007 is 1.58%. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS contract [43][46]. 3.2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - variety Spread - In terms of inter - delivery spread, the spreads of main futures contracts have widened. As of May 23, the spreads of TS/TF/T/TL contracts (near - month - far - month) are - 0.16 yuan, - 0.30 yuan, - 0.28 yuan, - 0.68 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.05 yuan, - 0.10 yuan, - 0.11 yuan, - 0.34 yuan from last Friday. - In terms of inter - variety spread, the spreads of 2*TF - T and 3*T - TL contracts have widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts have narrowed. As of May 23, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, 3*T - TL are 98.76 yuan, 103.24 yuan, 300.75 yuan, 206.97 yuan respectively, compared with - 0.28 yuan, + 0.31 yuan, - 0.26 yuan, + 0.47 yuan from last Friday. Currently, the downward space of long - term interest rates is limited. If the central bank takes measures to ease liquidity, there may be a downward opportunity for the medium - and short - term. There is considerable gaming space in short - term Treasury futures. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on the short - end and short on the long - end to steepen the yield curve [53].