别再盯着GPU和HBM高带宽内存了，AI推理浪潮正在让NAND闪存摆脱"强周期商品"的宿命，演变成一种高增长的AI基础设施资产。 据追风交易台消息，1月23日，摩根大通亚太区科技研究团队发布深度研报《半导体：NAND——更长、更强的上升周期》，宣告NAND行业进入 了一个由AI推理驱动的全新超级周期。与过去依靠智能手机和PC出货量驱动的周期不同，本轮周期的核心驱动力是企业级SSD（eSSD）。 摩根大通认为，随着AI工作负载从训练向推理转移，以及HDD（机械硬盘）在近线存储领域的供应瓶颈，NAND市场正迎来前所未有的结构性增 长。而投资者严重低估了NAND在AI推理时代的战略地位。 告别"周期诅咒"：10%的增长成过往，迎接30%的TAM爆发 长久以来，NAND行业一直被视为典型的强周期性大宗商品：技术进步带来成本下降，厂商疯狂扩产，随即引发价格崩盘。 但现在，这个逻辑被打破了。 摩根大通复盘了过去25年的数据发现，无论是过去20年、15年还是5年，NAND行业的TAM（潜在市场规模）年均复合增长率（CAGR）始终徘徊 在7%-12%的区间内。 然而，预测数据显示，在接下来的三年（2025-2027年），这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant price increases in memory storage driven by the demand from artificial intelligence (AI) applications, highlighting the collaboration between OpenAI and major memory manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix for a $500 billion project aimed at building next-generation AI infrastructure [4][19]. Memory Price Trends - The average spot price of general DRAM (DDR4 8Gb) reached $5.868 in September, nearly five times the low of $1 in Q1 [2] - The average spot price of mainstream memory semiconductor DDR5 16Gb increased by over 40% from $4.70 at the beginning of the year to $6.927 [2] - Predictions indicate that various DRAM products will continue to rise in price in Q4 due to supply constraints [2] OpenAI Collaboration - OpenAI has entered into a partnership with Samsung and SK Hynix, focusing on the "Stargate" project, which aims to invest approximately $500 billion by 2029 to build a large data center [4][19] - The project requires high-performance memory, including enterprise-grade NAND, server DRAM, and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) [4] HBM Demand and Supply - OpenAI's CEO requested a monthly supply of 900,000 DRAM wafers from Samsung and SK Hynix, which exceeds the combined monthly production capacity of both companies [5][6] - SK Hynix's HBM monthly production capacity is estimated at 160,000 wafers, indicating a significant gap between demand and supply [6] Market Growth Projections - The global HBM market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% from 2024 to 2028, driven by increasing demand from AI applications [18][19] - Analysts predict that DRAM operating profit margins will rise from the current 40-50% range to nearly 70% by 2026, nearing the peak levels seen during previous super cycles [20] Impact on Other Memory Types - The demand for memory is expected to increase across various segments, including enterprise SSDs and traditional DRAM, with prices projected to rise by 8-13% for DRAM and over 10% for LPDDR4X memory due to supply constraints [22][24] - The article notes that the memory market is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by AI, with significant implications for pricing and supply dynamics [20][22]