本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 September 23, 2024 08:21 PM GMT TSMC | Asia Pacific M Idea Higher capex and sustainable growth; reiterate OW | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-------------|-------------| | What's Changed \nTSMC (2330.TW) | From | To | | Price Target | NT$1,220.00 | NT$1,280.00 | We see faster capacity expansion at TSMC in both the front-end (2nm/3nm) and advanced packaging (CoWoS) to meet very strong AI semi demand. Key Takeaways We raise our 2025 capex estimat ...

China Utilities | China September 24, 2024 12:18 AM GMT M Update Goldwind | Asia Pacific Announces new employee restricted A-share incentive plan Goldwind has announced a new restricted stock incentive plan, to grant no more than 42.25mn shares (1% of total shares outstanding) at a price of Rmb4.09/share in two batches (40.15mn/2.1mn shares in the first/reserved batch). The source is A- shares repurchased from the secondary market. • The first batch will be granted to 480 employees (incl. senior/middle mana ...

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September 24, 2024 12:54 PM GMT M Asia Pacific Insight Podcast Asia Property Picks – Episode 20: Implications of Lower Rates for Asian Property In this 11-minute podcast, Praveen Choudhary discusses implications of falling interest rates for property markets and stocks with regional property analysts. Key Takeaways Why is nominal rate increase not an issue for Japan? Which Australian stocks will benefit most from having the highest debt, cheapest valuation, and/or improving fundamentals? Why will lower mort ...

Summary of Affirm Holdings, Inc. Special Call on September 30, 2024 Company Overview - **Company**: Affirm Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: AFRM) - **Participants**: Michael Linford (COO & CFO) Key Points Industry Context - Affirm operates in the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) sector, which has seen significant growth and adoption among consumers, particularly younger demographics like Gen Z [2][21]. Financial Performance - Affirm reported a **48% year-over-year revenue growth** in Q4, indicating strong business performance [2][12]. - The company is on track to achieve **GAAP profitability by the end of the fiscal year**, driven by strong top-line growth and improved operating margins [8][10]. Operational Insights - Affirm's unit economics are strong, with revenue less transaction costs exceeding the long-term target range of **3% to 4%** [7]. - The company plans to control operating expenses while continuing to grow revenue, with a significant reduction in amortization costs expected from a major enterprise partner [10]. Strategic Partnerships - Affirm has established partnerships with major enterprises like **Amazon, Shopify, and Apple**, which are crucial for expanding consumer reach and enhancing the checkout experience [11][36]. - The partnership with Apple is live, allowing iPhone users to utilize Affirm's services through Apple Pay, which is expected to significantly increase consumer engagement [36]. Market Positioning - Affirm differentiates itself from competitors like Klarna and Afterpay by offering a broader range of payment terms and a transparent fee structure, which appeals to both consumers and merchants [25][27]. - The company emphasizes its commitment to responsible credit practices, which is vital for maintaining consumer trust and managing credit risk [19][22]. Future Outlook - Affirm is preparing for international expansion, with plans to launch in the **U.K.** later this year, aiming to replicate its U.S. success in new markets [39]. - The company is focused on building a payments network that adds value to both consumers and merchants, with a long-term vision of becoming a ubiquitous payment option alongside traditional credit networks [46][47]. Technological Integration - Affirm is leveraging **AI and machine learning** to enhance its predictive capabilities and improve decision-making processes, although it maintains a cautious approach to ensure compliance and transparency [30][32]. Consumer Trends - The shift in consumer preferences towards transparent financial products is driving Affirm's growth, particularly among younger consumers who are seeking alternatives to traditional credit cards [22][23]. Regulatory Considerations - Entering new markets involves navigating complex regulatory frameworks, which Affirm is prepared to address as it expands internationally [42][43]. Additional Insights - The company acknowledges the competitive landscape in the BNPL space, which is expected to drive innovation and improve service offerings [28][29]. - Affirm's focus on maintaining high credit discipline is crucial for managing costs and ensuring sustainable growth [19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed during the call, highlighting Affirm's robust growth trajectory and its commitment to innovation and consumer-centric financial solutions.

Summary of J.P. Morgan Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Single Stock Options Market - **Focus**: Analysis of potential opportunities in the U.S. single stock options universe, including blue-chip stocks with liquid options markets. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Call Overwriting Candidates**: - IBM (IBM), Bank of New York Mellon (BK), GE Healthcare (GEHC) are identified as candidates for call overwriting due to their volatility richness [2][5]. 2. **Put Underwriting Candidates**: - Humana Inc (HUM), Estee Lauder (EL), and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) are highlighted as attractive put underwriting candidates [2][5]. 3. **Put Buying Candidates**: - Candidates include RH (RH), Zillow Group (Z), and Verizon Communications (VZ), which are characterized by cheap volatility [2][5]. 4. **Call Buying Candidates**: - FedEx Corp (FDX), Kla Corp (KLAC), and McKesson Corp (MCK) are noted for their potential as call buying candidates [2][5]. 5. **Volatility Metrics**: - The report emphasizes the importance of implied volatility (IV) and realized volatility (RV) in assessing stock options. Stocks with IV above the 75th percentile are considered "rich," while those below the 25th percentile are "cheap" [12][34]. 6. **Technical and Fundamental Indicators**: - The analysis employs five technical and fundamental indicators to time stock buying or selling decisions, including 1M beta adjusted relative performance and 63D price Z-score [5][8][36]. 7. **Options Pricing**: - Options pricing is described as indicative only, with specific methodologies outlined for determining buy/sell signals based on volatility richness/cheapness [5][8][34]. 8. **Market Sentiment**: - The report indicates a bearish sentiment for certain stocks, with recommendations to sell or underweight based on the analysis of price movements and volatility metrics [5][8][36]. Additional Important Information 1. **Analyst Certification**: - Analysts certify that their views reflect personal opinions and that no part of their compensation is related to specific recommendations [3][57]. 2. **Risks of Options Strategies**: - The report outlines the risks associated with various options strategies, including potential losses from selling puts and calls [46][47][48]. 3. **Investment Recommendations**: - J.P. Morgan uses a rating system of Overweight (buy), Neutral (hold), and Underweight (sell) to guide investors [60][61]. 4. **Market Coverage**: - The analysis covers 336 liquid members of the Russell 1000 stock index, providing a broad view of the market landscape [34][35]. 5. **Volatility Score Calculation**: - The volatility score is calculated based on the percentile ranking of the stock's implied volatility relative to the S&P 500, aiding in identifying cheap and rich volatility candidates [12][34]. 6. **Confidentiality Notice**: - The report includes a confidentiality notice, emphasizing the proprietary nature of the information and the importance of compliance with legal regulations [78]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and recommendations from the J.P. Morgan Global Quantitative & Derivatives Strategy conference call, focusing on the U.S. single stock options market and the associated investment opportunities and risks.

September 23, 2024 05:59 AM GMT M Update | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------| | | | | Kanzhun Ltd \| Asia Pacific | | | Chart of the Day - iOS Grossing | | | continued to decline WoW due | | | to Mid-Autumn Festival Holiday | | Key Takeaways Weekly grossing declined 14% WoW (vs. -33% WoW in the prior week), as recruitment activities slowed during the mid-Autumn Festival Holiday. Sep MTD grossing -3% MoM/-2% YoY (vs. -10% MoM in Sep 2023, +19% MoM/ +7% YoY in Aug 2024). 3Q24 QTD grossing ...

M Idea Greater China Materials | Asia Pacific September 24, 2024 09:00 PM GMT Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Pricing as of September 23, 2024. 4Q24 Outlook – Equity Implications: New Materials In the new materials space, we see limited upside for current lithium recovery. Solar glass prices likely to stabilize with supply response and we still like uranium for the long term. Lithium price rally likely short and with small upside: Our channel checks suggest Rmb70-80k/t is a fair price range based on ...

M Update Semiconductors | North America September 23, 2024 04:01 AM GMT Weekly: Micron Preview shows mixed signals MU stock could rebound on earnings given a low bar near term, particularly if enthusiasm returns to AI beneficiaries; but we remain below consensus on CY25 and don't see the stock as value at these levels, remain Equal-weight. The stock could tactically rebound, but high valuation and CY25 concerns keep us sidelined. Expectations are way down, and tactically, we think that if they can guide abo ...

North America Credit Research 24 September 2024 J P M O R G A N REIT Public Bond Covenants 2Q24 Master Cheat Sheet Our covenant database includes ~$253.5bn in $USD REIT public debt (see subtotals by sector below). Note that, through tenders, the amount outstanding is now ~$3.5bn less than the original face amount issued. Accounting for foreign-denominated debt (converted to $USD), we capture ~$286.1bn of bonds, including nearly $52.0bn maturing over the next two and a half years. In an attempt to simplify t ...