1、恆指：看多投資者認為技術性調整，下週繼續升25800-26000，過夜牛證，收回價24994點；看跌投資者認為回調至25000，熊證收回價25888 Simon:昨日提到指数偏離頂部比较多，今日回調也屬於合理的。收市價在保力加通道頂部之內。短線技術買賣信號有15個買入和5個賣出，維持看好。上方 阻力位25894點，升穿則上試26500點。投資者認為回調的話，參考下方支持位24600點。选择熊證收回價25888，對於第一個阻力位來看，兩者非常貼近，最 好選擇挨近第二阻力位或26300以上的會更合適一些。 | | | 2、中芯國際 (00981.HK)：半導體逆勢走強，這個月是否見56-60元。也有激進投資者部署熊證，收回價55元。 Simon:信號總結為"強力買入"，短線偏樂觀。第一阻力位55.9元，剛好在56元之前，與投資者的看法只差0.1元。第二阻力位在58.5元，低於60元。熊證收回 價55元比較危險，最好選擇收回價遠的產品，避免即刻收回。 | 信號總結 | 賣出信號 中立信號 | 買入信號 | | --- | --- | --- | | 強力買入 | O | 16 | 3、中國國航 (00753.H ...

Company Performance - Sands China reported 2Q25 net revenue of US$1.8 billion, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase and a 5% quarter-over-quarter increase, with luck-adjusted property EBITDA of $559 million, down 1% year-over-year but up 3% quarter-over-quarter, recovering to 73% of 2019 levels, which was lower than expectations due to the underperformance of Parisian [1] - The company has lowered its 2025E EPS forecast from US$0.20 to US$0.13, 2026E forecast from US$0.22 to US$0.16, and 2027E forecast from US$0.23 to US$0.19, while also reducing the target price from HK$25 to HK$22.6, maintaining a Buy rating with a 21% upside potential [1][3] Industry Insights - Macau's gross gaming revenue (GGR) grew 8% year-over-year in Q2, recovering to 83% of 2019 levels, with VIP GGR rising 23% year-over-year, reaching 47% of 2019 levels, and mass GGR increasing 4% year-over-year, up 16% compared to 2019, contributing 73% of total revenue [1] - The resilient gaming revenue in Q2 is attributed to constrained supply, a busy events calendar, and strong demand from VIP and premium mass segments [1] Operational Details - Sands China's mass GGR grew 1% year-over-year, with premium mass GGR flat year-over-year (49% of mass revenue, up 6% compared to 2019) and base mass up 2% year-over-year (93% of 2019 levels), while VIP rolling chip volume declined 22% year-over-year [1] - Hotel occupancy stood at 96%, with an average daily rate (ADR) of US$226 [1] Renovation Impact - The company implemented aggressive customer reinvestment programs since late April, which supported improved performance in May and June, with all 2,405 renovated rooms and suites at the Londoner opened by late April [2] - The Londoner's annualized EBITDA target is US$1.0 billion, with 2Q25 annualized EBITDA reaching $626 million [2]

各娱乐场的表现：澳门威尼斯人、伦敦人、巴黎人、澳门四季酒店及百利宫娱乐场、澳门金沙的收入分 别为663 百万美元、642 百万美元、194 百万美元、194 百万美元及71 百万美元; 其经调整EBITDA 分别 为236 百万美元、205 百万美元、44 百万美元、66 百万美元、9 百万美元 （分别恢复到2019 年同期的 70%、124%、32%、80%、21%）。 机构：第一上海 研究员：王柏俊 25 年第二季度业绩概况：净收益同比增长2.3%, 环比增长5.3%, 到17.9亿美元（恢复到2019 年的 84%）。 贵宾业务同比减少13.3%，环比减少4.9% （此业务恢复到19 年同期的28%），中场业务业务 同比增长0.8%，环比增长7.5% （高端中场同比减少0.3%，环比增长5.2%；大众中场同比增长1.9%， 环 比增长9.5%)。零售业务方面：毛收入和经营利润分别同比增长7.8%/4.8%，环比增长0.8%/持平；奢侈 品的表现还是偏弱。 酒店入住率为96.2%, 平均价格为226 美元。 经调整EBITDA 同比增长0.9%，环比 增长5.8%到5.66 亿美元（恢复到19 年同期的7 ...

机构：华泰证券 研究员：何翩翩 出行和支付政策引客流和现金流，演唱会和潮玩经济拉动暑期GGR我们认为2H25 澳门博彩板块有望延 续上行趋势。年初珠澳"一签多行"与6 月香港推出"跨境支付通"，持续优化出入境与支付便利性；叠 加"金股币"齐涨的财富效应，显著提振客流与现金流，增强游客消费意愿。5 月郑秀文演唱会，6 月张 学友、权志龙接力登场，7-9 月陈奕迅、林忆莲、邓丽欣等或持续吸引高净值中老年客群。同时 Labubu 等大型IP 强势登陆澳门，亦扩大亲子与年轻客群覆盖。25 年5 月内地与香港访澳人次均超疫前，6月更 是淡季不淡，GGR 恢复至19 年同期88%，恢复水平创疫后新高。博企面向客群布局多元非博彩活动， 与其主业良性互动，有效带动GGR 回升。 金沙中国母公司LVS 于美国时间7/23 盘后发布25Q2 财报，当中澳门业务（金沙中国）博彩毛收入 （GGR）17.2 亿美元，同比+0.3%，环比+6.5%，恢复至19Q2 的81%（行业83%）。LVS 盘后涨约5%， 主因新加坡业务超预期，但澳门业务恢复不及预期。尽管2Q 整体访澳客流强劲、高端需求回升，但金 沙中国恢复节奏滞后。管理层坦言过 ...

公司在HBM（高带宽存储）和先进逻辑的收入增长展现了公司在AP（先进封装）的领先优势。2025 年 上半年，公司TCB（热压键合）订单同比增长50%。其中，根据公司2Q25 业绩公告，截至上半年，公 司在HBM 领域已完成大宗客户的设备安装并符合12 层HBM3E 的要求，另外同时已于2Q25 开始对另一 客户就12 层HBM4 进行小批量生产，在HBM4 及以上已开始开发AOR 技术（主动去氧化技术）；在先 进逻辑领域已获得晶圆代工客户的C2W（chip to wafer）批量生产订单。 机构：中金公司 研究员：张怡康/贾顺鹤 2Q25 订单高于我们预期，但盈利改善低于我们预期ASMPT 2Q25 收入34 亿港元（4.36 亿美元），同比 1.8%，环比8.9%，主流业务开始受益于AI；毛利率39.7%，同比+0.33ppt，环比-1.19ppt，基本持平，盈 利1.34 亿港元，同比-1.7%，环比+62.5%，主要受一次性税项抵免因素影响；二季度新增订单4.82 亿美 元。公司指引3Q25 收入4.45 至5.05 亿美元之间，按中位数计算同比+10.8%，环比+8.9%。2Q25 新增订 单超过我们 ...

Core Viewpoint - ASMPT's 2Q25 earnings fell short of expectations primarily due to foreign exchange impacts on gross profit margin (GPM) and strategic research and development (R&D) investments, yet the blended book-to-bill (B/B) ratio improved to 1.11, indicating strong order gains across the semiconductor (SEMI) and surface mount technology (SMT) sectors, supporting robust revenue guidance for 3Q25 [1][2] Financial Performance - 2Q25 revenue increased by 2% year-over-year to HK$3.4 billion, aligning closely with midpoint guidance, while GPM and operating profit margin (OPM) decreased by 1.2 percentage points and 0.1 percentage points quarter-over-quarter to 39.7% and 5.0% respectively, mainly due to high operating expenses (OPEX) and strategic investments [2] - Adjusted net income (NI) decreased by 3% year-over-year to HK$131 million, reflecting the impact of OPEX and foreign exchange [2] Future Guidance - 3Q25 revenue guidance is set between US$445 million and US$505 million, exceeding market expectations by 1%, with the midpoint reflecting a 10.8% year-over-year and 8.9% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by strong SEMI orders and SMT orders from a leading smartphone customer [3] - Management anticipates strong growth in advanced packaging (AP) and a recovery in mainstream demand, particularly from China and AI data centers, although there are concerns regarding soft near-term demand in automotive and industrial sectors [3] Advanced Packaging (AP) Insights - In 1H25, AP revenue constituted 39% of total revenue, marking a record high, with TCB orders increasing by 50% due to significant installations and shipments for HBM clients [4] - ASMPT has established the largest TCB installed base globally, surpassing 500 tools, and is expected to continue its growth trajectory in TCB and other AP tool orders in 2H25 [4] Valuation Adjustments - The revenue estimate for SMT has been increased by 3% to account for demand recovery driven by China and AI, while SEMI revenues have been reduced by 2% due to delayed TCB orders [6] - The group GPM is expected to remain above 40%, but net income forecasts have been lowered by 15%/4%/3% to reflect the impact of high OPEX [6]

投资建议：给予目标价77.2 港元，维持"买入"评级AI 和中国市场需求驱动下，公司SMT 业务订单增长 趋势向好，上调2025/2026/2027 净利润3%/8%/7%至6.23/10.35/16.27 亿港币，对应EPS为1.50/2.49/3.91 港币。考虑到公司在AI 驱动的先进封装领域的技术优势及长期成长潜力，基于2026 年31x PE（可比公 司Factset 一致预期均值25.2x），上调目标价至77.2 港币（前值：69 港币，对应2026 年30x PE），维 持"买入"评级。 先进封装：TCB 上半年订单同比+50%，混合键合设备Q3 交付上半年，公司成功为领先的HBM3E 12H 客户安装了其批量订购的TCB 设备。对于HBM4，一家HBM 客户已开始使用公司的TCB 进行HBM4 12H的少量生产。逻辑方面，1H25 在领先晶圆代工厂的OSAT 合作伙伴获得了C2S 解决方案订单，作为 唯一供应商，今年上半年交付大量此类TCB 设备。 此外，公司与领先晶圆代工厂联合开发用于C2W 的AOR TCB 正从试产阶段迈向量产阶段。混合键合方 面，第二代HB 工具在对准和键合准确性、焊盘 ...

Group 1 - CGN Mining is forecasted to report a net loss of approximately RMB68 million in 1H25 due to a one-off negative margin in the uranium trading business and a decrease in spot uranium prices affecting joint venture margins [1] - The earnings forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 47% to RMB260 million, reflecting the anticipated weak results in 1H25, but a recovery in margins is expected in 2H25 [1] - The new pricing mechanism for the off-take agreement with the parent company starting in 2026 is expected to significantly boost earnings growth due to a higher contract price [1] Group 2 - The fixed price for uranium in the new off-take agreement for 2026 is set at US$94.22 per pound, which is substantially higher than the US$61.78 per pound in 2023, with annual increments planned [2] - The proportion of fixed pricing in the off-take agreement will decrease from 40% to 30%, which is expected to reduce the mismatch between joint venture average selling price and off-take pricing [2] - Potential risk factors include further trading losses, a pullback in spot uranium prices, and a lack of improvement in sulphuric acid supply from Kazakhstan [2]

机构：国联民生证券 研究员：刘雨辰/陈昌涛 供应链金融大有可为 受多方面因素影响，大部分小微企业通过银行获取融资难度依旧较大。从2025Q1小微企业融资渠道情 况来看，仅有20.7%的小微企业为通过传统银行经营贷获取资金。供应链金融通过将主体信用切换至交 易信用直击小微企业融资痛点，以应收账款、存款、订单等流动资产作为质押基础。与此同时借助供应 链上核心企业为中小微企业增信，从而较大程度降低小微企业融资门槛。我们预计2023-2027 年供应链 基础资产规模将以5.7%增速增长，2027 年末规模将达121.1 万亿元。 1）2022 年以来公司由过去重资产模式逐步转向轻资产运营，转型平台化后公司业务增长不再受限于公 司负债规模；2）公司过去业务主要围绕基建、医疗以及能源三大板块十余家核心央国企企业， 2024 年 公司已开拓出海电商、智算服务以及机器人等业务，对应的潜在市场规模超10 万亿元，潜在客户数量 超1000 万；3）公司国企合资模式成功验证并复制，国企合资企业对公司利润贡献度逐步提升。2024年 公司应占联营企业利润占公司整体营业利润的31.49%，较2023 年末+25.68pct。 AI 赋能 ...

Core Viewpoint - China National Pharmaceutical Group is a leading innovative research and R&D-driven pharmaceutical group in China, with a focus on both generic and innovative drug development [1][2][3] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 23.647 billion yuan in 2020 to 28.866 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit remains stable due to increased investment in innovative drug R&D [1] - The revenue from chemical generics is expected to recover to 16.81 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 3.1%, with the tenth batch of centralized procurement products accounting for only 1% of total revenue [1] Group 2: Innovation and Product Pipeline - The company has significantly increased its R&D pipeline, with the number of innovative products launched rising from 3 to 18 since 2022, including 9 innovative drugs [2] - The proportion of revenue from innovative products has increased from 12% in 2018 to 41.8% in 2024, with expectations to exceed 50% in 2025 and reach 60% by 2027 [2] Group 3: Strategic Goals and Market Position - The company aims to establish a strong global competitive position in oncology, respiratory, liver disease, and surgical/pain management, with plans for business development transactions to become a regular source of income starting in 2025 [3] - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 34.062 billion yuan, 36.602 billion yuan, and 39.674 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.932 billion yuan, 4.288 billion yuan, and 4.743 billion yuan [3]