消息面 据外媒报道，印尼能源部官员Eniya Listiani Dewi表示，因资金紧张，印尼可能提高棕榈油出口税，以 支持该国的生物柴油任务。印尼通过向棕榈油出口商征收出口税来补贴其生物柴油计划。 机构观点 宁证期货： 棕榈油"印尼政策利好预期"与"马来西亚高库存现实"之间博弈。国内现货市场方面基差成交寡淡，终端 需求一般。建议短线参与。 格林大华期货： 基本面上库存压力，出口乏力，宏观上国际原油偏强，多空交织之下棕榈油走势振荡为主。 路透调查显示，马来西亚12月棕榈油库存预计将攀升至近七年来的最高水平。根据路透社对10位贸易 商、种植商和分析师的调查预测中值，棕榈油库存预计将上升至297万吨，较11月增长4.7%，创2019年 2月以来最高水平。 数据显示，1月9日棕榈油现货价格报8710元/吨，较上一日上涨60元/吨，当日涨幅为0.69%。最近一 周，棕榈油价格累计上涨43.33元/吨，上涨幅度为0.50%；最近一个月，棕榈油价格累计下跌3.33元/ 吨，下跌幅度为0.04%。 ...

宁证期货指出，国内产区停割，东南亚原料价格止跌回升，胶厂加工利润亏损；国内天胶显性库存累 库，一季度累库高度预期不一。需求端多数轮胎样本企业维持灵活控产状态，成品库存累库中，原料采 购维持逢低补货节奏。技术处于调整阶段。整体宽幅震荡对待，短期高位偏空。 1月9日，国内期市能化板块涨跌互现。其中，天然橡胶期货主力合约开盘报16120.00元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至发稿，天然橡胶主力最高触及16135.00元，下方探低15815.00元，跌幅达1.05%附 近。 申银万国期货指出，国内产胶区基本停割，泰国东北部预计1月份将陆续停割，近期南部洪涝对供应产 生一定影响，支撑胶价。去年下半年以来，青岛地区库存缓慢去库，但四季度重新累库，12月底，库存 回升至全年高点。RU期货仓单目前仍处于偏低位置。轮胎开工方面，仍保持相对稳定。短期供应端弹 性减弱，原料胶价格相对坚挺。预计胶价震荡偏强。 格林大华期货分析称，基本面看，当前国内橡胶供需变动有限，前期受商品和情绪提振叠加海外原料价 格走强给予盘面较强动力。而随着盘面涨至前高附近且市场氛围降温，期价出现明显回调，短期盘面上 方阻力显现。【交易策略】RU主力关注15 ...

Market Overview - As of January 9, the profit from self-bred pigs was a loss of 11.54 yuan per head, improving from a loss of 34.59 yuan per head the previous week. The profit from purchased piglets was a loss of 2.31 yuan per head, compared to a loss of 48.35 yuan per head the prior week [1] - The average daily price of live pigs in China was 12.6 yuan per kilogram, with a slight increase of 0.02 yuan per kilogram week-on-week. In Henan, the benchmark delivery price was 12.98 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.02 yuan per kilogram [1] Institutional Insights - According to Chaos Tiancheng Futures, the recent pig market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with reduced volatility in the spot market post-New Year. The basic indicators for pig prices are expected to strengthen as market sentiment cools, with supply potentially increasing in mid-January. Close attention is needed on the actual versus planned slaughter rates and the upcoming Spring Festival stocking demand [3] - Nanhua Futures noted that the price of standard pigs had rebounded slightly due to limited entry of new pigs and some reluctance to sell among larger producers. However, without significant improvements in supply-demand dynamics, pig prices are expected to remain low and fluctuate within a narrow range [4]

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver TD is above 18457, with a recent opening at 18245 and a current report of 18597, reflecting a decrease of 2.54% [1] - The highest price reached today was 18872, while the lowest was 17830, indicating a short-term volatile trading pattern [1] - The Federal Reserve Governor Milan expects a rate cut of 150 basis points this year to boost the labor market, with core inflation projected to remain around 2.3% [1] Group 2 - Silver TD prices experienced a significant drop of over 5% yesterday, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive days [2] - The one-hour MACD histogram indicates emerging bullish momentum, although prices remain below the zero line, suggesting that bearish conditions persist [2] - Key support levels for silver TD are identified between 16500 and 17500, while resistance levels are noted between 18500 and 19000 [2]

Group 1 - International silver is currently trading above $76.96, with a reported price of $77.07, reflecting a 0.14% increase, and has seen a high of $77.49 and a low of $75.45 during the session [1] - The next upward price target for silver bulls is to break through the key technical resistance level at the historical high of $82.67 per ounce [4] - A significant drop below current levels could trigger technical selling, potentially accelerating a decline towards the psychological level of $75.00, with further corrections possibly extending to the next support level near $74.00, which may serve as a short-term bottom for the commodity [4] Group 2 - The volatility of the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data remains a primary risk factor, with the impact of the 2025 government shutdown overshadowing the true hiring trends [3] - The significant downward revisions of data from October and November 2025 may obscure the positive performance of December data, painting a bleaker picture of growth momentum for the quarter [3] - Market participants are cautious of the potential "January effect," where rebalancing and New Year optimism collide with high-risk data [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing demand for silver driven by its essential role in modern industrial applications, particularly in energy transition and AI technologies [2][3] - Silver is no longer just a precious metal or investment asset; it has become a critical material in the industrial system, especially as a key conductor in solar panels [2] - The explosive growth in global solar installations has led to silver demand outpacing supply growth, despite a decrease in silver usage per panel [2] Group 2 - The rise of AI has intensified demand for silver, as AI data centers rely heavily on physical materials, making silver and gold indispensable for high-performance servers and accelerators [2][3] - The simultaneous expansion of AI servers, electric vehicles, solar energy, grid upgrades, and high-end consumer electronics has created a comprehensive material bottleneck in the silver market [3] - For industrial users, silver is not a discretionary cost but a critical input necessary for production, resulting in high price inelasticity of demand for silver [3] Group 3 - Current market sentiment shows a cooling trend, with silver prices experiencing downward pressure, although the long-term outlook remains bullish [4] - The target price for silver in the long term is set at 19,500 yuan per kilogram, with a reference trading range for the main silver contract between 16,940 and 18,800 yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is currently experiencing a bullish trend, with prices trading above 17.17, and a focus on upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll (NFP) data that may influence the labor market outlook and Federal Reserve policy [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - As of the latest update, silver is priced at 17.29 yuan per gram, reflecting a 1.76% increase, with a high of 17.39 and a low of 16.89 [1] - Analysts from XS.com indicate that unless the NFP report exceeds expectations, the current strength of the U.S. dollar may be limited and temporary [1] - The dollar is described as being in a "fragile state," with any signs of labor market weakness potentially leading to a decline [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The daily chart shows that silver prices opened around the previous closing price and then rebounded, indicating a potential upward trend [1] - The one-hour Bollinger Bands suggest a prevailing bearish trend, while the MACD histogram shows a divergence indicating an emerging upward trend [1] - DMI indicates a momentum crossover leaning towards bullish, with support levels identified between 16.00 and 17.30, and resistance levels between 17.50 and 18.00 [1]

Price Trends - Most gold retail prices have decreased today, with a consistent decline across brands [1][4] - Lao Feng Xiang remains the highest priced at 1396 CNY per gram, while Cai Bai is the lowest at 1370 CNY per gram, narrowing the price gap to 26 CNY per gram [1][3] Detailed Price Listings - Lao Miao gold price is 1392 CNY per gram, down by 4 CNY [3] - Liufu gold price is 1390 CNY per gram, down by 6 CNY [3] - Chow Tai Fook gold price is 1392 CNY per gram, down by 6 CNY [3] - Zhou Liufu gold price is 1377 CNY per gram, down by 6 CNY [3] - Other brands like Shanghai China Gold and Cai Bai have stable prices at 1372 CNY and 1370 CNY respectively [3] International Market Insights - Spot gold prices have shown volatility, with a recent low of 4407.29 USD per ounce and a closing price of 4477.39 USD per ounce, reflecting a 0.50% increase [6] - Current spot gold is reported at 4467.69 USD per ounce, down by 0.22% [6] - Factors influencing gold prices include strong USD, geopolitical risks, and weak employment data, with market participants awaiting key economic data for clearer direction [6] Trading Costs and Market Sentiment - CME has raised margin requirements for precious metal futures, increasing trading costs and potentially suppressing speculative trading [6] - The market anticipates further fluctuations in gold prices, particularly with the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data [6]

Group 1 - The silver market is struggling to maintain prices above $80 per ounce despite a strong start to the new year, primarily due to margin adjustments by the CME Group leading to sell-offs [2] - Fund manager Jen Bawden predicts silver prices could rise to $200 per ounce, citing a physical supply shortage exacerbated by China's export restrictions, which affect approximately 70% of global supply [2] - The competition for the remaining 22,000 tons of silver in London is intensifying among China, the solar industry, and central banks, indicating a shift towards a national security issue [2] Group 2 - Current price fluctuations in London silver are enhancing bullish momentum, supported by positive signals from the relative strength index after reaching oversold levels [3] - The overall market sentiment remains bullish for silver and gold due to factors such as the continuation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, declining dollar credibility, rising geopolitical risks, and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [2] - Bawden views any price pullbacks as long-term buying opportunities and is optimistic about the prospects of silver mining companies, holding positions in several silver-related stocks and ETFs [2]

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.910, while spot gold opened at $4475.71 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4458.76 per ounce [1] - The previous trading day saw the dollar index rise by 0.14% to 98.874, and spot gold increased by 0.43% to $4332.45 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals showed mixed results, with spot silver down 1.55% at $76.96 per ounce, platinum down 0.78% at $2281.50 per ounce, and palladium up 1.50% to $1794.00 per ounce [1] Inventory Data - As of January 8, COMEX gold inventory stands at 1131.77 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons from the previous trading day [2] - COMEX silver inventory is at 13762.66 tons, down by 101.33 tons from the prior trading day [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings remain unchanged at 1067.13 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 115.6 tons to 16215.43 tons [2] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 3 recorded 208,000, lower than the expected 210,000, with the previous value revised from 199,000 to 200,000 [4] - The US trade deficit for October 2025 was reported at $29.4 billion, the smallest since June 2009 [4]