由于中国采购量增加以及贸易商为应对欧佩克+可能释放的更多原油供应提前调整仓位布局推高了油轮 运费，美国原油对亚洲买家的吸引力正逐步下降。 此外，贸易商还指出，中东原油市场指标正快速走弱，具体表现为迪拜原油基准价差收窄，以及阿曼原 油、穆尔班原油等品种的价差同步缩小。这意味着，与远道而来的美洲原油相比，邻近的波斯湾国家原 油价格将更具竞争力。 值得注意的是，就在欧佩克+持续向市场增加原油供应的同时，美国国内原油市场却出现了供应趋紧的 初步迹象。美国政府数据显示，该国原油库存已连续第二周下降，目前库存水平降至今年1月以来的最 低水平。 据知情贸易商透露，中国炼油企业正抓紧下单采购原油，确保货物能在年底前到港，以用尽中国政府发 放的进口配额。这一需求直接推高了超大型油轮(VLCC)的使用率，导致可用于美洲至亚洲航线的油轮 数量减少。 波罗的海交易所数据显示，当前美国至中国航线的VLCC日租金已超过7万美元。尽管这一数字低于中 东至中国航线9万美元的日租金水平，但美洲航线的耗时至少多出两周，这使得整体运输成本大幅增 加。 利用地区价差从美国向亚洲出口原油的所谓"套利贸易"已成为近几个月现货市场的显著特征。本周印度 巴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical concerns and are expected to trade in the 480 - 490 range. Long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions, but there is significant upside pressure due to rumored Saudi price cuts and continued Russian oil imports by India [3]. - Citi maintains its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in the third quarter at $66 per barrel and expects the benchmark crude to average $63 in the fourth quarter. By the end of the year, the supply surplus will have a greater impact on the oil supply - demand balance [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Fundamental factors for crude oil 2510 are mixed: 9 - month Russian oil exports to India may increase; Saudi may cut October official export prices; oil supply to Hungary and Slovakia from Russia has resumed. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. US API and EIA inventories decreased last week, and Cushing area inventories also declined. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average. WTI long positions increased, while Brent long positions decreased. Short - term, prices are expected to trade between 480 - 490, and long - term, long positions should be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Russia launched a large - scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, causing damage to buildings in Kiev, strong reactions from European leaders, and casualties. Ukraine also attacked Russian refineries [5]. - German Chancellor Merz believes that a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky is unlikely, casting doubt on Trump's efforts to promote a cease - fire agreement [5]. - Citi believes that Russia - related tariffs, sanctions, and attacks on Russian oil facilities are keeping oil prices high. Despite an impending supply surplus, OPEC + production increases are lower than expected, and India may diversify its oil procurement [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine; continued tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and trade tariff risks are rising. In the long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude settled at $67.98 (up $0.54, 0.80%), WTI at $64.60 (up $0.45, 0.70%), SC at 481.1 (down 5.30, - 1.09%), and Oman at $68.53 (down $0.92, - 1.32%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd was at $67.51 (up $0.13, 0.19%), WTI at $64.60 (up $0.45, 0.70%), Oman at $69.81 (up $0.38, 0.55%), Shengli at $65.11 (up $0.01, 0.02%), and Dubai at $69.98 (up $0.53, 0.76%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventories decreased by 974,000 barrels in the week ending August 22, and EIA inventories decreased by 2.392 million barrels. Cushing area inventories decreased by 838,000 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventories remained at 5.721 million barrels as of August 28 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of August 19, WTI crude oil long positions increased, and Brent crude oil long positions decreased [3]. - WTI crude oil fund net long positions were 120,209 on August 19, an increase of 3,467 [17]. - Brent crude oil fund net long positions were 182,695 on August 19, a decrease of 23,852 [18].