热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：能源研发中心 | 讲 | | | | 期货主力合约 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | सि | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 持仓量 | 持仓走势 | | 每 | 中国SC原油期货 | 473.50 | 0.21 | 45286 | | | H | 美国WT原油期货 | 63.96 | -0.62 | 144000 | | | 信 | 英国BRENT原油期货 | 68.80 | -0.35 | 553511 | | | 出 | 美国RBOB汽油期货 | 1.9592 | -1.32 | 115000 | | | | 英国ICE柴油期货 | 680.50 | -1.31 | 205206 | | 后市观点 油价的走势在清晰的传达一个观点：原油处于一个偏强的混沌蓄势阶段，地缘当然是最大的不确定性， 根据计划周三以色列总理内塔尼亚胡将于当地时间11日在白宫会见美国总统特朗普，在此之前本周前二 个交易日处于消息真空期，所以油价维持在震荡拉锯节奏中，等待更多消息的指引。特朗普就伊朗问题 表态要么 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the Middle - East tensions increasing the risk premium, crude oil prices have risen for two consecutive days. The geopolitical tensions this year have overshadowed concerns about global supply surplus. The market will get insights from a series of data this week, starting with the EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report. The short - term oil prices are still affected by the Iran situation, and the global crude oil supply - demand fundamentals in the first and second quarters remain in a surplus state, not supporting high valuations [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - Middle - East tensions have pushed up the risk premium, causing oil prices to rise for two consecutive days. WTI crude oil has traded above $64 per barrel after a 1.7% increase in the past two trading days, and Brent crude oil has closed above $69. The US warned that US - flagged vessels should stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - The US Maritime Administration's warning was related to an incident on February 3 when a US - flagged oil tanker was approached by Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Venezuelan crude oil production has approached 1 million barrels per day after returning to the pre - cut level [4]. - US sanctions have led to a continuous decline in Russian crude oil production. In January, Russia's average daily crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels, 46,000 barrels per day less than in December and nearly 300,000 barrels per day lower than the quota in the OPEC+ agreement. The amount of Russian oil stored on tankers has been increasing [5]. 3.2 Inventory - This week, crude oil has fluctuated at a high level due to the Iran situation, with the month - spread falling and the North Sea Brent basis dropping to $1.005 per barrel. The US and Iran held a six - hour nuclear negotiation on Friday, with Iran calling it a good start. A second round of negotiations is expected in the coming days. - Globally, the total petroleum inventory has decreased. In the US, commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.455 million barrels and refined oil inventory decreased by 5.553 million barrels. Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arabian light crude oil for March. - In Singapore, all refined oil products have seen inventory accumulation. In ARA, crude oil inventory has decreased, while refined oil products, diesel, and gasoline have seen inventory accumulation. In China, both gasoline and diesel inventories have increased [5]. 3.3 EIA Report - For the week ending January 30, US crude oil exports decreased by 542,000 barrels per day to 4.047 million barrels per day [15]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day [15]. - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82% [15]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.802 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94% [15]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.05% [15]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.201 million barrels per day, an increase of 559,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [15].

具体调整包括，国有炼油商巴拉特石油已向托克授予购买伊拉克巴士拉原油和阿曼原油的一年期合同， 并正寻求从阿联酋购买穆尔班原油。此外，印度炼油商也增加了对美国石油的采购，以部分替代俄油并 缩小对美贸易逆差，同时也在寻找委内瑞拉原油的机会。 市场人士分析认为，中东产油国凭借OPEC提高的产量配额保持全球市场供应充足，加之美国去年将印 度商品进口关税提高一倍以惩罚其大量购买俄油，共同推动了印度供应链的多元化进程。 中化新网讯 近日市场分析报告称，印度炼油商近期重新规划原油进口策略，逐步减少对原最大供应国 俄罗斯的依赖，同时增加自中东的采购。这一转变可能有助于新德里与美国达成一项降低关税的贸易协 议。 自2022年俄乌冲突后，印度成为俄罗斯海运折扣原油的最大买家，但该贸易因西方制裁而承压。据行业 消息人士透露，在政府会议讨论以助力加速印美贸易协定后，印度炼油商已开始缩减俄油采购。贸易数 据显示，去年12月印度进口的俄罗斯石油已降至两年低点，而来自石油输出国组织(OPEC)国家原油所 占份额则达到11个月高位。 ...

Group 1 - The main crude oil futures contract closed at 441.9 yuan per barrel, with a weekly increase in open interest by 3,756 contracts [1] - During the week of January 19 to January 23, crude oil futures opened at 443.2 yuan per barrel, reaching a high of 448.6 yuan and a low of 434.4 yuan, resulting in a weekly change of 0.50% [1] Group 2 - The Dubai oil authority set the official discount for April shipments of Dubai crude relative to Oman crude futures at 30 cents per barrel, linked to the average settlement price of the Oman crude near-month contract [2] - The EIA report indicated a decrease in U.S. crude oil exports by 618,000 barrels per day to 3.688 million barrels per day, and a reduction in domestic crude oil production by 21,000 barrels to 1.3732 million barrels per day [2] - Venezuela's proposed oil law reform will allow the state oil company to operate joint ventures with foreign and local partners, enabling direct commercialization of production and receipt of sales revenue [2] Group 3 - Current market dynamics reflect a balance between oversupply and geopolitical risks, with short-term expectations hinging on developments in Iran, where potential U.S. military actions could drive oil prices higher [4] - Increased crude oil inventories and signs of progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations are putting slight pressure on oil prices, with U.S. gasoline inventories reaching their highest level since 2001 [4] - Venezuelan supply is returning to the market, and Indian refiners are resuming purchases of Russian crude, while cold weather is expected to boost U.S. demand, providing some price support [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Middle East oil market is showing signs of weakness, raising concerns about a potential oversupply of global crude oil that could depress prices, while allowing Asian traders to overlook developments in Venezuela [1][5]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Dubai benchmark crude's discount to Brent futures reached its widest level since August, indicating ample supply [1]. - The forward curve of Dubai swaps has reverted to a contango structure, characterized by recent contract prices being lower than future contracts, signaling bearish sentiment [1]. - The price differential between spot and Dubai benchmark prices is rapidly narrowing, suggesting weak demand [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The premium for Oman crude, preferred by major importing countries like China, has dropped from nearly $1 per barrel at the end of last month to near parity with Dubai benchmark prices [1]. - The price of UAE's Upper Zakum crude has been set at a discount of $0.35, marking the weakest level since December 2023 [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global crude oil supply has consistently exceeded demand due to increased production from OPEC+ and other oil-producing countries, leading to concerns in the market [5]. - Brent futures fell 18% last year, marking the worst annual performance since 2020, with several banks predicting further declines in oil prices [5]. - Saudi Aramco has lowered prices for its flagship Arab Light crude for the third consecutive month, reaching a five-year low in pricing differentials for major Asian customers [5]. Group 4: Impact of Geopolitical Events - U.S. intervention in Venezuela, including the arrest of Maduro and partial blockade of oil tankers, could have disrupted Venezuelan oil exports, but the ample supply from the Middle East has alleviated such concerns [5]. - Chinese refineries, typically major buyers of Venezuelan crude, have not shown signs of urgently seeking alternatives like Iraqi Basrah crude [5]. Group 5: Sales and Inventory Issues - Approximately 8 million barrels of crude oil scheduled for February shipment remain unsold, including grades like UAE's Upper Zakum and Qatar's Al-Shaheen, which is unusual as such transactions typically conclude by the end of December [6]. - The backlog of unsold oil indicates that Arabian Gulf crude has failed to find buyers for the fourth consecutive month, despite the region's historical ability to sell most of its crude supply [6].

Group 1 - The Middle East oil market is showing signs of further weakness, raising concerns about a potential global supply surplus that could drive oil prices lower [1] - The price differential between Dubai benchmark crude and Brent crude futures has widened to its largest level since August, indicating ample supply [1] - The forward curve of Dubai swaps has returned to a "contango" structure, where near-term contract prices are lower than future contract prices, a typical bearish signal [1] Group 2 - Saudi Aramco has significantly lowered its selling prices to major Asian customers for the third consecutive month, pushing the price differential for its flagship Arab Light crude to a five-year low [2] - The current market conditions have alleviated concerns about U.S. intervention in Venezuela potentially disrupting oil flows from the South American country [2] - There is a notable lack of urgency among Asian buyers to purchase alternative Middle Eastern grades such as Iraq's Basrah crude [2] Group 3 - Approximately 8 million barrels of crude oil scheduled for shipment in February remain unsold, which is unusual as such supplies are typically sold by the end of December [3] - This backlog in sales indicates that it is the fourth consecutive month that Arabian Gulf crude has struggled to find buyers [3] - Historically, the region has been able to sell most of its oil offerings [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing demand for oil from China, which is driving up tanker freight rates, while the attractiveness of U.S. crude oil to Asian buyers is gradually declining [1][4] - Chinese refining companies are rapidly placing orders for crude oil to utilize government-import quotas before the end of the year, leading to a higher utilization rate of Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) [1] - The daily rental rate for VLCCs on the U.S. to China route has exceeded $70,000, which, although lower than the $90,000 rate for the Middle East to China route, results in significantly higher overall transportation costs due to longer shipping times [1] Group 2 - The "arbitrage trade" from the U.S. to Asia has become a notable feature in the spot market, although this trend may not be sustainable in the long term [1] - As OPEC gradually eases production quotas, crude oil shipping volumes in the region east of the Suez Canal are increasing, with shipowners optimistic about the market outlook [1] - There are signs of tightening supply in the U.S. domestic crude oil market, with government data indicating that crude oil inventories have decreased for two consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest level since January [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical concerns and are expected to trade in the 480 - 490 range. Long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions, but there is significant upside pressure due to rumored Saudi price cuts and continued Russian oil imports by India [3]. - Citi maintains its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in the third quarter at $66 per barrel and expects the benchmark crude to average $63 in the fourth quarter. By the end of the year, the supply surplus will have a greater impact on the oil supply - demand balance [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Fundamental factors for crude oil 2510 are mixed: 9 - month Russian oil exports to India may increase; Saudi may cut October official export prices; oil supply to Hungary and Slovakia from Russia has resumed. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. US API and EIA inventories decreased last week, and Cushing area inventories also declined. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average. WTI long positions increased, while Brent long positions decreased. Short - term, prices are expected to trade between 480 - 490, and long - term, long positions should be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Russia launched a large - scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, causing damage to buildings in Kiev, strong reactions from European leaders, and casualties. Ukraine also attacked Russian refineries [5]. - German Chancellor Merz believes that a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky is unlikely, casting doubt on Trump's efforts to promote a cease - fire agreement [5]. - Citi believes that Russia - related tariffs, sanctions, and attacks on Russian oil facilities are keeping oil prices high. Despite an impending supply surplus, OPEC + production increases are lower than expected, and India may diversify its oil procurement [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine; continued tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and trade tariff risks are rising. In the long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude settled at $67.98 (up $0.54, 0.80%), WTI at $64.60 (up $0.45, 0.70%), SC at 481.1 (down 5.30, - 1.09%), and Oman at $68.53 (down $0.92, - 1.32%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd was at $67.51 (up $0.13, 0.19%), WTI at $64.60 (up $0.45, 0.70%), Oman at $69.81 (up $0.38, 0.55%), Shengli at $65.11 (up $0.01, 0.02%), and Dubai at $69.98 (up $0.53, 0.76%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventories decreased by 974,000 barrels in the week ending August 22, and EIA inventories decreased by 2.392 million barrels. Cushing area inventories decreased by 838,000 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventories remained at 5.721 million barrels as of August 28 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of August 19, WTI crude oil long positions increased, and Brent crude oil long positions decreased [3]. - WTI crude oil fund net long positions were 120,209 on August 19, an increase of 3,467 [17]. - Brent crude oil fund net long positions were 182,695 on August 19, a decrease of 23,852 [18].