白纸板：提价函推动价格上涨，经销商补库意向弱 截至1月28日，250-400g平张白卡纸市场成交含税月均价4268元/吨，环比+0.73%，同比-0.74%。影响价 格变动主要原因系：1)成本压力缓解有限，规模纸厂继续发函促涨;2)贸易商售价与成本出现倒挂，暂以 走货降库为主，价格拉涨谨慎;3)终端订单放量有限，贸易商出货欠佳。 箱瓦纸：纸厂涨价计划未落地，盈利承压 截至1月28日，中国AA级瓦楞纸120g市场月均价2751元/吨，环比-11.60%，同比5.82%。影响价格变动 主要原因系：1)月初规模纸厂涨价函未能落实，转为保价政策并多次下调出厂价格，中小纸厂库存高 位，选择主动让利出货;2)主要原料废纸延续跌势，纸厂为规避高价原料风险，连续下调原料收购价 格，成本支撑不足;3)终端春节订单陆续放量，下游包装厂订单量增加，对瓦楞纸消耗量增加。 废纸：国废消费量下降，价格整体下跌 国泰海通发布研报称，1月进口木浆现货市场中多空因素并存、结构性差异明显导致价格走势分化。其 中阔叶浆价格上涨，白卡纸继续发布提价函，文化纸价格企稳，盈利略有承压，预计木浆市场供应先降 后增，需求跟进不足，白纸价格逐步传导，黑纸价格 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports is that strong improvements in free surplus and free cash flow generation are expected to rebuild market confidence in the intrinsic value of AIA Group (01299) and Prudential (02378) [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on both AIA and Prudential, citing attractive capital returns and free cash flow yield as potential drivers for stock price revaluation against intrinsic value multiples [1] - The stock prices of Prudential and AIA surged approximately 70% to 80% last year, attributed to the recovery of Asian stock markets and improved cash generation capabilities [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts significant growth in new business sales for Hong Kong life insurance in 2025, but expects normalization this year based on baseline predictions for AIA and Prudential [2] - The firm believes there is upside risk to its assumptions, as the sales and product environment remains attractive, particularly for mainland visitors to Hong Kong [2] - Scenario analysis indicates that if Hong Kong sales maintain strong momentum (doubling the baseline growth rate), AIA and Prudential could see net earnings yield potential of 2.5% to 3.5% by 2028, along with an IFRS operating profit upside of 2.5% to 3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Citi's report predicts that Pop Mart (09992) will enhance its ability to withstand IP cyclical risks through a diversified strategy centered on IP, revitalizing new demand [1] Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - Recent data tracking by Citi shows an increase in app downloads, particularly in China and the US, driven mainly by the launch of the new series Skullpanda x My Little Pony [1] - Citi observes high consumer interest in the new series on Instagram, indicating strong market engagement [1] - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Pop Mart with a target price of HKD 415, based on a projected 28x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers and Market Potential - Looking ahead to 2026, Citi forecasts that breakthroughs in IP diversification, product innovation, and monetization across various fields will drive growth for the company [1] - The next hit IP launch and the popularity of non-LABUBU IP in overseas markets are expected to boost investor confidence [1] - Other iconic IP products like SKULLPANDA, TWINKLE TWINKLE, and CRYBABY are emerging as new growth drivers with their own fan bases, not merely substitutes for LABUBU [1] Group 3: Market Expansion and Competitive Position - Investor discussions about Pop Mart's growth sustainability are focused on the US market, which presents a large potential market size [2] - The company's global expansion is expected to be supported by organizational upgrades, localized operations, and strengthened supply chains [2] - Compared to most global toy and IP peers, Pop Mart commands a premium, likely due to its rapid growth driven by overseas expansion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Xiaonan Guo (03666) experienced a significant stock decline, with a drop exceeding 16% at one point and a previous day drop of over 28% due to media reports about the closure of its restaurants [1] Group 1: Company Operations - The company announced that it has temporarily suspended operations of its ten restaurants under the "Shanghai Xiaonan Guo" brand to align with a strategic restructuring [1] - The board clarified that the claim regarding "deposits and prepaid cards being non-refundable" is incorrect, and the company is processing refunds for deposits [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - As of the latest report, the stock price is at 0.024 HKD with a trading volume of 656,500 HKD [1]

Group 1: Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a phase of supply improvement starting in the second half of 2024, with profitability gradually recovering by 2026 [1][2] - The average cement price in 2025 is projected to be 372.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.6 yuan/ton year-on-year, with a cumulative production decline of 7.2% [2] - A total of 16 million tons/year of capacity has been removed through capacity replacement, which may lead to asset impairment for several companies [2] Group 2: Glass Industry - The flat glass industry is experiencing a significant decline, with the average price in 2025 expected to be 1323.3 yuan/ton, down 383.4 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] - Daily melting capacity has dropped below 150,000 tons, a decrease of 27,000 tons/day from previous highs, indicating an acceleration in the cold repair cycle [3] - The profitability of photovoltaic glass is under pressure, with a projected average price of 21 yuan/square meter in 2025, down 3 yuan/square meter from 2024 [3] Group 3: Fiberglass and Electronic Fabrics - The average price of fiberglass yarn in 2025 is expected to be 3866 yuan/ton, an increase of 174 yuan/ton year-on-year, indicating stable market conditions [4] - The average price of ordinary electronic fabric is projected to be 9012 yuan/ton in 2025, up 539 yuan/ton year-on-year, reflecting improving market conditions [4] - Demand for special electronic fabrics is accelerating, contributing positively to the performance of companies in this segment [4] Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - Companies like Three Trees and Hanhai Group are maintaining strong revenue and profit performance through effective channel development and brand advantages [5] - Companies in the gypsum board and retail pipeline sectors are expected to maintain strong operational quality, with potential for significant performance improvement in 2026 [5] - Several consumer building material companies are anticipated to release credit risks in 2025, allowing for a more favorable performance outlook in 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The coal stocks continue their recent upward trend, driven by supply reduction policies in Indonesia aimed at boosting coal prices [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Mongolian Coal (00975) increased by 5.15%, reaching HKD 12.65 [1] - Yanzhou Coal (01171) rose by 4.38%, reaching HKD 13.36 [1] - Power Development (01277) gained 3.23%, reaching HKD 1.92 [1] - Yancoal Australia (03668) increased by 2.36%, reaching HKD 33.78 [1] - China Coal Energy (01898) rose by 2.11%, reaching HKD 12.58 [1] Group 2: Supply Reduction Policies - Indonesian mining officials announced a significant reduction plan, leading to a suspension of spot coal exports [1] - The production quotas issued to major miners in Indonesia were reduced by 40% to 70% compared to the full-year level of 2025, as part of a strategy to boost coal prices [1] Group 3: Price Trends - Longcheng Securities reported that the logic of supply contraction driving coal prices upward has been validated [1] - Domestic coal supply has rapidly contracted due to inspections of overproduction, with Qinhuangdao thermal coal prices rising from a low of RMB 609 per ton to RMB 834 per ton [1] - The overall trend of coal prices internationally mirrors that of the domestic market, with exporting countries like Indonesia aiming to raise prices to improve corporate performance and enhance fiscal health [1] - Current coal prices are still considered low, with a significant distance from reasonable price levels, indicating a potential for price increases driven by policy-induced supply reductions [1]

消息面上，美国2025年12月零售销售表现低于预期，降息预期略有升温。与此同时，市场等待周三将公 布的美国1月非农就业报告。法国巴黎银行大宗商品策略主管David Wilson本周最新表示，随着宏观经 济和地缘政治风险持续存在，本轮黄金涨势"合情合理"，金价可能在年底前攀升至每盎司6000美元，金 银比也将进一步走高。 万国黄金集团 分时图 日K线 周K线 月K线 17.41 1.44 9.02% 11.15% 7.45% 3.69% 0.00% 3.69% 7.45% 11.15% 14.19 14.78 15.38 15.97 16.56 17.16 17.75 09:30 10:30 12:00/13:00 14:00 16:10 500 61万 122万 183万 万国黄金集团(03939)涨超7%，高见17.32港元创上市新高。截至发稿，涨7.39%，报17.15港元，成交额 2.22亿港元。 万国黄金集团此前公告，预期2025年度公司拥有人应占溢利约14亿至15亿元，同比增长约143%至 161%。环球富盛认为，公司2025年归母净利润预计同比大幅增长，受益于金价提升。该机构指出，公 司金岭矿扩建 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Innovent Biologics (01801) has entered into a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly (LLY.US) to jointly develop new biopharmaceuticals focused on oncology and immunology globally, marking a significant milestone in Innovent's journey towards becoming a global biopharmaceutical company [2] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - The collaboration between Innovent Biologics and Eli Lilly is seen as a positive surprise, highlighting Innovent's strong research and development platform [2] - Morgan Stanley reaffirms Innovent Biologics as a top pick among Chinese biotech companies, maintaining an "Overweight" rating with a target price of HKD 111 [2] Group 2: Long-term Vision - Innovent's management reiterated its long-term vision, benefiting from a dual-engine growth strategy in the areas of generic biologics and oncology drugs [2] - Morgan Stanley remains impressed with Innovent's execution capabilities in its commercial and R&D product lines, as well as its strong business development abilities [2]

Core Viewpoint - Zhongwei New Materials (02579) has seen a significant increase in stock price, rising over 10% to HKD 37.42, with a trading volume of HKD 94.45 million, driven by news regarding Indonesia's nickel mining quotas [1][1]. Group 1: Industry Insights - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced a nickel mining quota for 2026, with an approved production target of only 260 million to 270 million tons, significantly lower than the 2025 target of 379 million tons [1][1]. - Zhongwei New Materials is positioned to benefit from potential supply-demand gaps in the nickel market, as noted by Zhongyou Securities, which suggests that nickel is one of the few metals absent from the current bull market in non-ferrous metals [1][1]. Group 2: Company Developments - The company has secured a supply of 600 million wet tons of nickel ore through investments, partnerships, long-term agreements, and exclusive sales, which is expected to enhance profitability as nickel ore export quotas tighten [1][1]. - Zhongwei New Materials has established nickel resource smelting capacity of 195,000 metal tons, creating a vertically integrated ecosystem from resource extraction to smelting and materials, which will positively impact operating profits with rising LME nickel prices [1][1].

Core Viewpoint - Emerging markets are experiencing a significant rally, reaching historical highs driven by optimism in Asian tech stocks related to artificial intelligence and a weakening US dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose by 1% to 1565.05 points, surpassing the previous record set in late January [1]. - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index also reached a historical peak, with various benchmark indices from countries like South Korea, Mexico, and Brazil hovering near record levels [1]. - Emerging markets have seen a cumulative increase of over 30% in 2023, primarily led by Asian markets such as Taiwan and South Korea [1]. Group 2: Capital Flows and Investor Sentiment - Global funds are shifting from crowded US tech stocks, particularly large-cap tech, to other regions and sectors, benefiting Asian tech stocks and the semiconductor supply chain due to anticipated AI capital expenditures [3]. - Despite a strong market sentiment, actual investor positioning remains light, with foreign capital outflows of $6.6 billion from the South Korean market this year [5]. - Countries like Mexico, Brazil, and Vietnam are expected to benefit from global supply chain adjustments, potentially solidifying the upward momentum of emerging market stocks [5]. Group 3: Currency Trends - Emerging market currencies are also strengthening, with the MSCI currency index rising by 0.2% as the US dollar index declines [3]. - A report from LGT Private Banking expresses a positive outlook on the short-term performance of emerging Asian currencies, particularly the Korean won, New Taiwan dollar, and Chinese yuan [4].