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深度|木头姐:从滚动衰退到牛市?以AI为核心的技术发展已进入黄金时期,市场或进入超预期增长与低通胀并存的新常态
Z Potentials· 2025-05-10 04:39
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "rolling recession" and its implications for the labor market, automation, and economic outlook, emphasizing the cautious hiring practices of companies and the potential for increased automation to replace labor as profit margins shrink [2][11][20]. Group 1: Labor Market and Employment - The labor shortage post-pandemic has led companies to be more cautious in hiring, resulting in a phenomenon of labor "hoarding" [2]. - Companies are unlikely to lay off workers until their profits are significantly impacted, which is already occurring for some [2]. - The article suggests that if deflation becomes a significant theme, companies will accelerate the trend of replacing labor with capital [2]. Group 2: Automation and AI - The article addresses fears surrounding automation and AI, noting that while some jobs may be replaced in the short term, historically, technological advancements have created more jobs in the long run [3]. - The example of agricultural automation is cited, where initial job displacement was followed by increased productivity and job creation [3]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Taxation - The article presents a perspective on tax policy through the lens of the Laffer Curve, suggesting that optimal tax rates can maximize government revenue [8][9]. - It highlights that despite discussions of recession, sectors like high-end consumption and government spending, which have supported economic growth, are now showing signs of decline [8][11]. - The article expresses optimism about the market's future, suggesting it is gradually overcoming pressures from interest rates, market concentration, and valuation issues [8][11]. Group 4: Rolling Recession and Monetary Policy - The article defines "rolling recession" and discusses its current state, indicating that real GDP has begun to decline, with negative growth reported in the first quarter [11][20]. - It notes that the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes have led to stagnation in housing sales and manufacturing, contributing to the recession [21][27]. - The article emphasizes that consumer confidence has plummeted across all income levels, with low-income consumers particularly affected [38][39]. Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Trends - The article predicts that truly disruptive innovations will see significant market value growth over the next five years, while traditional market segments may experience limited growth [8][61]. - It discusses the potential for a new market environment characterized by fluctuating interest rates and lower-than-expected inflation, drawing parallels to historical economic conditions [64][66]. - The article concludes with a positive outlook for the market, suggesting that it is moving towards a productivity-driven recovery that could end the current rolling recession [8][11].
速递|支付巨头Stripe发布全球首个支付AI基础模型,英伟达迁移速度创纪录
Z Potentials· 2025-05-10 04:39
Core Insights - Stripe announced a series of new product launches at its annual user conference, Stripe Sessions, including an AI-based payment model, stablecoin-supported account services, and a new Orchestration solution [1][4] - The new AI model is trained on billions of transaction data, enhancing fraud detection capabilities significantly, with a reported 64% improvement in detection rates for large enterprises [2][3] AI-Based Payment Model - The AI foundation model captures hundreds of nuanced signals in each transaction, which previous models could not achieve [1] - The old model reduced card testing attacks by 80% over two years, showcasing the effectiveness of Stripe's fraud detection efforts [1] - The new model employs self-supervised learning, allowing it to autonomously discover features and adapt to changing fraud patterns [3] Stablecoin and Multi-Currency Solutions - Stripe plans to collaborate with startups like Ramp, Squads, and Airtm to launch multi-currency cards supported by stablecoins, enabling multinational companies to operate in a unified currency [3][4] - This initiative follows Stripe's acquisition of the stablecoin platform Bridge three months prior [4] Orchestration and Payment Services - The Orchestration feature allows businesses to manage and optimize multiple payment service providers from a single dashboard, regardless of whether Stripe is used as the payment processor [4] - Stripe highlighted several AI companies using its billing products, including OpenAI and Anthropic [4] Additional Announcements - Stripe expanded its payment method support to 125 options, including UPI and PIX [7] - The company introduced a new "Managed Payments" service to assist businesses with global tax, fraud prevention, and dispute management [7] - Stripe Tax now covers 102 countries, up from 57, automating the entire tax lifecycle from monitoring to reporting [7]
速递|AI营销战升级:Meta十年老将空降微软,用户增长加速,难敌ChatGPT80%市场份额
Z Potentials· 2025-05-10 04:39
图片来源: Unsplash 微软已聘请一位曾在 Meta 和华纳时代任职的资深营销高管,担任该公司 Copilot 消费者人工智能聊 天 bot 的创意总监,据透露。此次招聘表明,在日益拥挤的市场中, AI 公司正开始将注意力集中在 营销其 AI 聊天 bot 上。 • 微软聘请前Meta首席创意官马克·达西担任Copilot创意总监,强化品牌建设与产品设计,应对 OpenAI、谷歌等对手的营销竞争。 • 达西曾主导Meta旗下多平台广告战略,其加入或推动Copilot在消费者市场的差异化定位。 • 虽Copilot集成于Windows、必应等生态推动用户增长,但Similarweb数据显示其市占率不足5%, 远低于ChatGPT。 马克 ·达西( Mark D ' Arcy )曾在 Meta 担任营销高管长达十年直至 2021 年离职,他将向微软人工 智能 CEO 穆斯塔法·苏莱曼( Mustafa Suleyman )汇报工作。 苏莱曼领导的部门主要负责 Copilot ——一款类似 ChatGPT 的聊天机器人,该产品已深度集成至微软 Windows 操作系统、必应搜索引擎及 Edge 浏览器中,同时 ...
速递|OpenAI亚洲合规新动作:OpenAI定制化数据驻留服务覆盖日印新韩
Z Potentials· 2025-05-09 03:35
图片来源: Unsplash OpenAI 为日本、印度、新加坡和韩国的 ChatGPT 企业版、 ChatGPT 教育版及 API 用户推出了数据 驻留选项。 此举允许符合条件的客户将数据存储在这些国家境内,助力企业遵守当地数据主权法规。 API 用户可通过创建新项目并选择首选区域启用该功能,而 ChatGPT 企业版和教育版客户则可设置 工作区,实现包括用户对话、提示词及上传文件在内的本地化数据存储。 这一举措基于 OpenAI 现有的数据隐私与安全措施,包括对静态数据采用 AES-256 加密,对传输中数 据使用 TLS 1.2 + 协议。 OpenAI 同时澄清,除非用户明确选择加入,否则不会使用客户数据来训练其模型。数据驻留功能旨 在让客户对其数据拥有更多控制权,同时遵守 GDPR 和 CCPA 等全球标准。 深入思考: 1.亚洲不断演变的数据主权格局推动本地化策略 OpenAI 扩展数据驻留选项反映了亚洲日益复杂的监管环境,各国数据本地化法律差异显著。 许多亚洲国家已实施严格的数据主权法律,要求企业将公民数据存储在本国境内,如中国的《个人信 息保护法》和印度的《数字个人数据保护法》所示。 企业若不 ...
深度|前谷歌CEO谈全球AI竞赛:AI竞争核心是系统能否自我演化;AI不仅没有泡沫,反而被严重低估了
Z Potentials· 2025-05-09 03:35
图片来源: YouTube Z Highlights 埃里克 · 施密特( Eric Schmidt ),前谷歌 CEO ,曾担任美国国家安全委员会 AI 事务负责人,现任 Relativity Space 公司董事长,是全球 AI 战略与技术治 理的重要声音之一。本次对谈录音于 2024 年在 YouTube 频道《 AI Founders Journey 》发布,聚焦创始人心理、人工智能竞赛、中美开源博弈及超级智能 时代的社会挑战。 创始人心理:从天赋到验证机制 主持人: 大家好,欢迎收听《 AI 创始人之旅》第一期节目。我是主持人 Air 。今天非常高兴邀请到我的朋友 Eric Schmidt 。他曾担任谷歌 CEO ,现在 是 Relativity Space 的首席执行官。嗨, Eric ,很高兴再次见到你。顺便祝贺你获得新职位。首先,你想怎么介绍自己? Eric Schmidt : 我曾是谷歌的首席执行官,现在担任 Relativity Space 的董事长,这是一家专注于大型火箭的私营航天企业。很多人可能不知道,其实我并 不是那种典型的创业者类型。 主持人: 有趣,那我们就从这里聊起吧。作为创始 ...
速递|设计师的AI新基建?Figma推出网站生成器与营销素材批量生产线
Z Potentials· 2025-05-09 03:35
该公司的网站创建工具名为 Figma Sites 。这家初创企业表示,设计师常在 Figma 内构建网站外观原 型。借助这款新型 AI 工具,他们能轻松创建并发布网站。 网站生成后,协作者无需额外指令即可通 过编辑器直接修改站点元素。 通过此次发布,该公司正与 Canva 和 Adobe 等创意解决方案展开竞争,同时对标 WordPress 、 Wix 、 Hostinger 和 Replit 等 AI 驱动的网站与原型创建平台。 图片来源: Figma 用户还能在确保网站响应式设计的同时,添加过渡效果、动画及滚动特效。 Figma 正为其网站增加直 接生成博客文章的功能,这意味着 Sites 将内置内容管理系统( CMS )——这项即将上线的功能允 许用户在博客设计界面内编辑文章,并管理缩略图、 URL 别名等其他素材。 设计公司 Figma 推出多项新功能,包括基于 AI 的网站与网页应用创建工具、面向营销人员的批量素 材生成方式,以及一款全新绘图工具。 对于股票行情等交互元素,您可以添加自定义代码或利用 AI 生成代码。 另一方面, Figma Make 是一款类似的 AI 驱动工具,更侧重于创意构思和 ...
速递|OpenAI领导层重组:Inscart CEO出任应用负责人,未来推动营利部门上市,奥特曼聚焦AI研究
Z Potentials· 2025-05-09 03:35
图片来源: Unsplash OpenAI 确认正聘请 Instacart 的CEO Fidji Simo 负责公司部分部门,这是该企业重大领导层重组的一 部分。 OpenAI 的CEO 萨姆·阿尔特曼(Sam Altman)表示他将持续监管对公司人工智能的研究与基础设施 团队,而将公司大部分其他事务交由西莫( Simo)负责。 近几个月来,两位与阿尔特曼讨论过招聘事宜的人士透露,他已表示对全面运营公司缺乏兴趣,这引 发外界对其 CEO 头衔保留时长的疑问。但他也可能决定长期担任 CEO 一职。 西莫在 5 月 7 日晚间向员工发送了一封邮件,称未来几个月她将出任 OpenAI 应用部门 CEO 的新角 色,"主导产品、业务及其他公司职能"。 阿尔特曼在 X 平台上发文表示,西莫将向他汇报工作。 阿尔特曼以既智慧又善于交际的领导者形象闻名,他避免冲突。他的兴趣范围广泛,从为人工智能开 发的新硬件设备到其他公司及产品,如核聚变初创企业 Helion 。 据知情人士透露,自前首席技术官米拉 ·穆拉蒂于九月突然离开 OpenAI 后,阿尔特曼在公司产品与 研究组织中承担了更大的职责。 Simo 在邮件中表示, In ...
速递|Anthropic推出Claude网页搜索API,单次查询成本直降GPT-4o三成
Z Potentials· 2025-05-08 05:33
Core Insights - Anthropic has launched a new API that enables its Claude AI model to perform web searches, allowing developers to build applications that provide up-to-date information [1][2] - The introduction of this API aligns with the trend of AI companies enhancing model capabilities to attract new customers [1] - The API allows Claude to utilize reasoning to determine if a specific request can benefit from the latest information, generating search queries, retrieving results, and providing answers with citations [1][2] Summary by Sections - **API Functionality**: The new API allows developers to enhance Claude's knowledge with real-time data through web searches, eliminating the need for developers to manage search infrastructure [1] - **Search Optimization**: Claude can optimize queries and perform multiple searches, with developers able to customize search behavior and restrict specific domains [2][4] - **Pricing Structure**: The pricing for the search functionality starts at $10 for every 1,000 searches, supporting various Claude models including Claude 3.7 Sonnet and Claude 3.5 Sonnet [2] - **Claude Code Integration**: The web search feature is being integrated into Claude Code, which enables developers to access the latest API documentation and technical articles [4][5]
速递|OpenAI首投机构再出手!Khosla1750万美元押注“轻量化AI”Fastino,AI训练平民化
Z Potentials· 2025-05-08 05:33
图片来源: Fastino 科技巨头常吹嘘需要庞大昂贵 GPU 集群的万亿参数 AI 模型,但 Fastino 正采取截然不同的策略 这家位于帕洛阿尔托初创公司称,他们发明了一种新型 AI 模型架构,专为小型化和特定任务设计。 其模型小到仅需总值不足 10 万美元的低端游戏显卡即可完成训练。 该方法正引发关注。 Fastino 透露,已获得由 Khosla Ventures 领投的 1750 万美元种子轮融资,该风 投机构正是 OpenAI 的首个风险投资人。 这使得该初创公司的总融资额接近 2500 万美元。去年 11 月,它曾由微软风投部门 M12 和 Insight Partners 领投,在一轮预种子融资中筹集了 700 万美元。 "我们的模型速度更快、准确性更高,训练成本仅为旗舰模型的一小部分,同时在特定任务上表现优 于它们," Fastino 的CEO兼联合创始人 Ash Lewis 表示。 Fastino 开发了一套小型模型,销售给企业客户。每个模型专注于公司可能需要的特定任务,如敏感 数据脱敏或企业文档摘要。 Fastino 尚未透露早期指标或用户情况,但表示其性能已令早期用户惊叹。例如, L ...
速递|AI代码安全赛道火热:Ox Security完成9400万美元总融资,微软、瑞士电信押注
Z Potentials· 2025-05-08 05:33
Ox 目前年经常性收入约 1000 万美元, Ziv 预计这一数字年底前将翻番——并计划在未来两到三年内 实现正向现金流。 图片来源: Ox Security 随着 "氛围编码"日益流行,科技公司纷纷鼓励其雇佣的开发者采用生成式 AI 工具,一家专注于扫描 AI 生成代码漏洞的平台近日完成了新一轮融资。 5 月 7 日Ox Security 宣布完成 6000 万美元 B 轮融资,该平台能对 AI 和人工编写代码进行统一风险 建模。本轮由 DTCP 领投, IBM Ventures 、微软、瑞士电信风投、 Evolution Equity Partners 及 Team 8 跟投,使 Ox 总融资额达到 9400 万美元。 Neatsun Ziv 与 Lior Arzi 于 2021 年在纽约和特拉维夫创立 Ox 。这对拥有软件与 IT 工程背景的创始 人在 Check Point 相识,曾共同开发这家安全公司的威胁防御产品线。 Ox 平台同时面向安全团队和开发者,提供应用程序代码扫描工具并保障企业供应链安全。该平台能 建模威胁、推荐修复方案,协助代码审查并生成突出漏洞及成因的高管报告。 "过去一年里,人工智 ...