所有反對者 都在喊 特斯拉 拿出數據證明 你的 FSD 絕對安全！ 但今天 我告訴你一個 讓監管機構 都沉默的真相 要證明 FSD 的絕對安全 在數學上 根本就是一個 不可能完成 的任務！ 這不是我說的 這是頂級智庫 蘭德公司的報告 聽好了 人類司機大概 每開一億英里 才會出一次 致命事故 你想用數據證明 AI 比人類安全 那麼一點點 比如說 20% 需要什麼？ 答案是一支由 100 輛車組成的 測試車隊 一天 24 小時 一年 365 天 不停地在路上跑 中間不能出 任何致命事故 這樣需要跑多久？ 500 年！ 你沒聽錯 500 年！ 等這個數據跑出來 我們人類 可能都已經 移民火星了！ 所以你看 這就形成了 一個死循環 監管機構說 拿出數據我就批准 但沒有 大規模的批准 就永遠跑不出 那個海量的數據 這就是傳統思維 和特斯拉模式 最根本的衝突 他們要的 是一個根本 不存在的 「絕對安全」證書 而這正在 成為一堵 阻礙我們 通往未來的 最厚的牆. ...

你知道現在 特斯拉的 FSD 有多麼憋屈嗎？ 這麼說吧 我們創造出了一個 反應速度堪比 F1 賽車手 還擁有 360 度 無死角視野 的超級 AI 司機 它永遠不會累 不會分心 更不會路怒 但結果呢？ 我們卻逼著它 去遵守一套 為這個星球上 最菜鳥最容易分心 的駕駛員設計的 「笨蛋法規」！ 這是一種什麼感覺？ 這就像 你請來了一位 圍棋世界冠軍 然後跟他說 嘿 我們來下跳棋吧 而且你要求 他每走一步都 必須要想半天 千萬不能走太快 因為你怕 看不懂他的招數 很荒謬！ 對不對？ 數據就在那裡 94% 的交通事故 都是人類 自己搞出來的！ 現在一個更安全的 司機出現了 我們卻用一套 保護低水平 駕駛的舊規矩 把它綁得死死的 這根本不是在 追求安全 這是在扼殺未來！ 所以問題來了 當天才已經出現 我們還要繼續 遷就笨蛋嗎？. ...

Autonomous Driving Technology & Safety - FSD V14 aims to evolve autonomous driving from executing commands to reasoning and planning routes like a human brain, integrating navigation and real-time adjustments [1] - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) data indicates that 94% of accidents are caused by human error, highlighting the potential safety advantages of AI drivers who don't get tired, distracted, or impaired [1] - Current autonomous driving systems, like Tesla's FSD and Waymo, demonstrate safety levels exceeding average human drivers, potentially saving $190 billion annually in the US by reducing accidents [1] - A 2024 study indicates that while AI generally has a lower accident rate, its accident rate can exceed human drivers during twilight hours [1] Regulatory & Implementation Challenges - The existing traffic regulations are designed for the lowest common denominator of human drivers, creating a mismatch when applied to advanced AI systems [1] - A key challenge is ensuring AI behavior is predictable and understandable to human drivers, as AI might make mathematically optimal decisions that appear sudden or confusing to humans [1] - A report from the RAND Corporation suggests that proving the absolute safety of autonomous driving through road testing alone is statistically impossible due to the extremely low probability of fatal accidents [1] - Regulatory fragmentation across the 50 US states, with varying laws and driver definitions, poses a significant legal hurdle for autonomous vehicle deployment [2] Future Vision & Urban Planning - Experts from MIT and the World Economic Forum suggest that simply replacing existing cars with autonomous vehicles without proper planning could worsen traffic congestion [2] - The ideal future model involves shared autonomous vehicle fleets (Robotaxis) integrated with public transportation, potentially eliminating 80% of parking spaces in city centers [2] - The evolution of FSD is paving the way for a revolution that will reshape cities and disrupt traditional industries such as insurance, oil, parking real estate, and auto repair [2]

Charging Network Efficiency - Tesla's supercharging stations have a queueing probability of only 0.6% globally [1] - The utilization of Tesla's supercharging network has increased nearly threefold compared to previous years [1] - Tesla's supercharging network is now open to users of multiple brands, including Ford and General Motors [1] Strategic Analysis - Tesla has managed to reduce queueing times despite increased usage and opening the network to other brands [1] - The report suggests a hidden strategy ("阳谋") behind Tesla's success in managing its charging network [1]

奔馳在中國市場 剛剛經歷了一場 史詩級的崩盤！ 2025年第三季度 豪華車市場的 成績單出來了 寶馬賣了 14萬7千輛 還行 原地踏步 但奔馳呢？ 你猜賣了多少？ 12萬5千輛！ 跟去年比 暴跌了27%！ 沒錯 將近三分之一的車主 就這麼 憑空消失了！ 這在奔馳的歷史上 簡直是災難 那消失的 這些豪華車主 都去哪了呢？ 不知道特斯拉 算不算最大的贏家 因為同一個季度 特斯拉在中國 賣了超過17萬輛 超過寶馬奔馳 或者說這 已經不是超越了 而是碾壓！ 三十年來 BBA在中國 就是信仰 但現在 這個信仰的基石 正在被馬斯克 一磚一瓦地拆掉 你覺得 傳統豪華車的時代 真的要結束了嗎？. ...

Market Trends & Competition - Mercedes-Benz sales in China plummeted by 27% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025, indicating a significant setback in its most important market [1] - Tesla's Q3 2025 sales in China exceeded 170,000 units, surpassing both BMW (147,000 units) and Mercedes-Benz, signaling a shift in luxury car market dominance [1] - BMW's sales in China remained relatively flat with a 0.4% decrease compared to the same period last year, and a year-to-date decrease of over 11% [1] - The definition of luxury in the Chinese automotive market is shifting from traditional features to technological advancements like OTA updates, fast car computer systems, and advanced driver-assistance systems [1] - Tesla's brand image is associated with future technologies like rockets, space, and AI, giving it a competitive edge over traditional luxury brands [1] Tesla's Operational Advantages - The probability of waiting in line at Tesla Supercharger stations globally has decreased to 0.6%, the lowest ever [2] - Tesla's Supercharger network usage has increased nearly threefold since 2019, with an average of eight cars served per charging pile per day [2] - Tesla's Supercharging costs are approximately 30% lower than other fast-charging networks in North America [2] - Tesla is introducing a virtual queue system for busy Supercharger stations, allowing users to remotely reserve a charging spot via the app [2] Cybertruck & FSD Updates - SpaceX is using Cybertrucks at its various facilities, serving as an endorsement of the vehicle's durability and capabilities [2] - FSD V14 is expected to be released on Cybertruck by the end of the month, reducing driver intervention prompts and improving the overall user experience [2] - Tesla is offering a retrofit service for physical turn signal stalks on the Model 3 in the US, priced at $595 [2]

Concerns Regarding Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) Strategy - Tesla's FSD V14 is primarily being rolled out to HW4 (Hardware 4) vehicle owners [1] - Millions of HW3 (Hardware 3) owners who previously purchased FSD may be disadvantaged [1] - Tesla had promised that vehicles produced after 2016 would have sufficient hardware [1] - Elon Musk has stated that HW3 will require upgrades to use future versions of FSD, which will be a difficult process [1] - AI5 chip, which is 40 times more powerful, is in development, raising concerns about future hardware obsolescence [1] Potential Shift in FSD Model - FSD may be transitioning from a one-time purchase to a subscription-like model requiring continuous hardware upgrades [1] Criticism of Tesla's Approach - Tesla's strategy is facing scrutiny regarding its support for older hardware and the evolving FSD requirements [1]

你知道嗎？ 馬斯克最近 天天掛在嘴邊的 FSD V14 有感知 (Sentient) 這詞兒背後 藏著一個 驚天的陽謀 你以為有感知 是個技術指標？ 大錯特錯！ 這根本就不是 一個工程學詞彙 在技術上它 什麼也代表不了 這其實是一場 高明的心理戰！ 你想想 當我們不再討論 冰冷的 每英里需要 干預幾次這種數據 而是開始爭論 我的車到底 有多像一個人？ 特斯拉就已經贏了 他這是在幹嘛？ 他是在給你 做心靈馬殺雞！ 當你感覺你的車 像個有生命 的夥伴時 它犯點小錯 你會怎麼樣？ 你大概會原諒它！ 你會覺得它 畢竟還在學習嘛 你看 就這麼一個詞 馬斯克就把一個 需要被嚴格 審視的安全工具 包裝成了一個 你需要呵護 共同成長的 電子寵物 這招簡直是 把用戶心理 拿捏得死死的！ 高 實在是高！. ...

FSD V14 Key Updates & Technology - FSD V14.1% focuses on refining existing capabilities rather than introducing entirely new features, emphasizing practicality for everyday use [1] - The "Arrival Options" system offers a Robotaxi-style drop-off experience, demonstrating advanced path planning in complex, non-standard environments [1] - The new "Sloth Mode" aims to personalize the driving experience, making FSD's behavior more aligned with human driving habits to build trust [1] - FSD V14's neural network model has 10 times more parameters than previous versions, enhancing its ability to understand, remember, and correlate driving scenarios [1] Hardware Controversy & Business Model - The FSD V14 update is primarily being rolled out to vehicles equipped with HW4 computers, creating uncertainty for millions of HW3 owners who were promised full self-driving capabilities [1][2] - Tesla may shift from a one-time software purchase model to a bundled hardware and software subscription service, potentially requiring hardware upgrades every few years [2] - The value of Tesla's used cars may be significantly affected by hardware versions, creating complexity and risks for owners' asset preservation [3] Industry Competition & Market Valuation - The automatic driving competition is mainly led by two different technical philosophies and business paths, represented by Tesla and Google's Waymo [3] - Wedbush analysts view FSD as Tesla's "golden goose," predicting a potential market capitalization of $2 trillion by early 2026 and $3 trillion by the end of 2026 [3] - JPMorgan analysts maintain an "Underweight" rating on Tesla, focusing on car deliveries and sales data while largely ignoring the potential of autonomous driving, robotics, or energy storage [3]

Industry Perspective - The automotive industry is shifting from selling transportation tools to selling AI-powered robots with future earning potential [1] - Traditional automakers like Ford and Hyundai are viewed as selling depreciating assets, while Tesla is selling an evolving asset [1] Tesla's Strategy - Tesla's strategy involves prioritizing core AI technology (FSD) over traditional car features like screens and sunroofs [1] - Tesla is positioning its vehicles as Robotaxis capable of generating income for owners through future OTA updates [1] Investment Implication - Purchasing a Tesla, even a base model, is framed as an investment in the future of AI and autonomous driving [1] - The purchase price of around $30,000 is considered an "entry ticket" to the AI revolution [1]