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三中全会全面解读:关于三中全会的八件事
Tebon Securities· 2024-07-19 22:30
Group 1: Innovation and Reform - Emphasis on effective organization and continuous innovation as key mechanisms for development[1] - Central enterprises play a crucial role in supporting a new national system for innovation[5] - Focus on talent and education as foundational strategies for driving innovation[7] Group 2: Economic and Financial Mechanisms - Reform of fiscal and financial mechanisms to address central-local financial authority adjustments and risk prevention[2] - Strengthening financial regulation to ensure comprehensive risk management and accountability[11] - Tax reforms aimed at optimizing consumption tax to guide industry structure upgrades[10] Group 3: Sustainable Development - Promotion of harmonious coexistence between humans and nature, with a focus on green and low-carbon development[3] - Energy transition strategies aiming for a 30% electrification level in end-use energy by 2025[14] Group 4: Market and Globalization - Construction of a unified national market to enhance the market economy's foundational systems[13] - Commitment to embracing globalization and enhancing international cooperation to leverage market advantages[15]
7月18日三中全会全面解读:关于三中全会的八件事
Tebon Securities· 2024-07-19 07:02
术攻关,着眼产业链整体突破,压紧压实责任,加速攻关突破"。科技产业与传 统重工业存在一定区别,部分重大科技设施和公共产品存在着"高投入、低回 报"的特征,市场主体投资难度较大,央企承担重要的引领和基础作用,有助于 以点带面的推动创新发展。此外从统筹发展与安全的角度,科技创新日益成为国 际战略博弈的主要战场,这也意味着国央企可能需要扮演更重要的角色。其余市 场化主体在此基础上进行创新行为,形成良好互动,形成国央企"突破卡点,大 步在前",其他企业"逐步创新,小步在后"格局。 2)有效激励创新。兵马未动,粮草先行,推动科技创新发展需要金融体系和资 本市场支持,2023年 10月中央金融工作会议定调科技金融作为"五篇大文章" 之首。我们认为,有效激励创新重点关注两个方面,其一是央行通过科技创新和 技术改造再贷款加大支持,其二是需要资本市场通过"合理高估值"激励创新, 此前6月19日,吴清主席的发言和相关新政的出台紧紧把握住"推动新质生产力 和创新发展"的主旋律,其一是围绕新质生产力,研究相关企业的投融资需求、 激励约束、公司治理等方面的需求,提供针对性的资本市场工具;其二是考虑科 技创新企业发展的特殊性和不确定性, ...
公用事业:煤电低碳化改造方案公布,关注绿氢及CCUS
Tebon Securities· 2024-07-19 05:30
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 公用事业 2024 年 07 月 19 日 公用事业 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号:S0120522120001 邮箱:guoxue@tebon.com.cn 联系人 刘正 邮箱:liuzheng3@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 公用事业 沪深300 -24% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 煤电低碳化改造方案公布,关注绿 氢及 CCUS [Table_Summary] 投资要点: 事件:2024 年 7 月 15 日,国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合印发《煤电低碳化改 造建设行动方案(2024—2027 年)》,统筹推进存量煤电机组低碳化改造和新上煤 电机组低碳化建设,加快构建清洁低碳安全高效的新型能源体系。 方案节点明确,要求 2025 年首批项目全部开工。《方案》明确提出,到 2025 年, 首批煤电低碳化改造建设项目将全部开工,相关项目的度电碳排放较 2023 年同类 煤电机组的平均碳排放水平将降低约 20%。到 ...
高能环境:固废龙头聚“废”成塔,资源化蓄势待发
Tebon Securities· 2024-07-19 03:00
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Gaoneng Environment (603588 SH) for the first time [12][26] Core Views - The company's resource utilization business is expected to see significant growth driven by capacity expansion and metal price increases [12] - Gaoneng Environment is projected to achieve revenues of 15 21/17 46/19 32 billion yuan in 2024-2026 with YoY growth of 44%/15%/11% [12][26] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 0 92/1 11/1 27 billion yuan in 2024-2026 with YoY growth of 81%/21%/15% [12][26] Business Performance Resource Utilization - Solid and hazardous waste resource utilization revenue increased by 59 5% YoY in 2023 accounting for 61 14% of total revenue [78] - The business is expected to grow at 66 9%/18 7%/13 3% in 2024-2026 with gross margins of 10%/11%/11% [9][11] - Jiangxi Xinke project completed front-end treatment upgrades potentially improving profitability [9] Environmental Operations - The company operates 13 waste-to-energy projects with total daily processing capacity of 11 000 tons/day [134] - 7 hazardous waste disposal projects with total licensed capacity of 161 800 tons/year [134] - Environmental operations revenue grew 11 71% YoY in 2023 with gross margin of 46 57% [11] Environmental Engineering - New environmental engineering contracts reached 3 123 billion yuan in 2023 up 6 4% YoY [24] - Revenue declined 23 84% YoY in 2023 but is expected to grow 10%/5%/3% in 2024-2026 [11] Technological Upgrades - Multiple technical upgrades completed at key subsidiaries including Gaoneng Pengfu and Jingyuan Gaoneng improving production efficiency and capacity [3][131] - Upgrades include smelting system drying system ultra-low emission system and oxygen-enriched side-blowing smelting system [3] - These improvements have increased processing capacity by 30% and reduced metal content in waste residue [3] Market Position - The company has established a comprehensive solid and hazardous waste treatment system covering the entire industrial chain [36] - As of 2023 the company holds hazardous waste operation licenses for 1 145 million tons/year including 983 000 tons/year for resource utilization [36] - The company benefits from its location in key industrial clusters ensuring stable waste supply [36] Financial Projections - Total revenue is expected to grow from 10 58 billion yuan in 2023 to 19 32 billion yuan in 2026 [11] - Gross profit margin is projected to stabilize around 16 7%-17 1% in 2024-2026 [11] - EPS is forecasted to increase from 0 33 yuan in 2023 to 0 83 yuan in 2026 [15]
逆变器:多企业业绩预披露环比改善明显,预期未来增长可期
Tebon Securities· 2024-07-19 00:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the inverter segment, indicating expected future growth [2]. Core Insights - The inverter segment shows significant improvement in profitability for companies like DeYe and Jinlang Technology, outperforming the main industry chain of silicon materials, silicon wafers, and modules [5]. - The inverter plays a crucial role in connecting photovoltaic arrays to the grid, converting direct current to alternating current, and ensuring the long-term operational efficiency of solar power plants [5]. - The performance of inverter companies in Q2 2024 is expected to improve due to the recovery of overseas inventory and stable growth in traditional markets, alongside explosive demand in emerging markets [5]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - DeYe is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.183 to 1.283 billion yuan in H1 2024, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase from 433 million yuan in Q1 2024 to approximately 750 to 850 million yuan in Q2 2024 [5]. - Jinlang Technology anticipates a net profit of 325 to 400 million yuan in H1 2024, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase from 20 million yuan in Q1 2024 to about 305 to 380 million yuan in Q2 2024 [5]. - In contrast, major players in the main industry chain, such as Tongwei and TCL Zhonghuan, are expected to report substantial losses in the same period [5]. Market Dynamics - The improvement in performance for inverter companies is attributed to sustained demand in markets like Brazil, India, and Germany, as well as explosive growth in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [5]. - Companies are leveraging their competitive advantages in emerging markets, leading to strong shipment momentum and market share growth [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key companies: - Sungrow Power Supply, recognized as a leading inverter company with a solid industry position [6]. - DeYe, which has a comprehensive product range and a strong presence in emerging markets [6]. - Jinlang Technology, noted for its technological influence and market position across various inverter sectors [6]. - GoodWe, which possesses core technologies in power electronics and energy management [6].
半导体行业点评:半导体设备限制加紧,国产设备替代加速
Tebon Securities· 2024-07-18 13:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 半导体 2024 年 07 月 18 日 半导体 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 陈蓉芳 资格编号:S0120522060001 邮箱:chenrf@tebon.com.cn 陈瑜熙 资格编号:S0120524010003 邮箱:chenyx5@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 半导体 沪深300 -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《2024 半年度业绩预告点评-思特 威(688213.SH):Q2 业绩超预期, 智 慧 安 防 与 手 机 CIS 双 击 》, 2024.7.16 2.《恒玄科技 2024 H1 业绩预告点评 -营收再创季度历史新高,看好 AI 可 穿戴发展趋势》,2024.7.14 3.《晶晨股份 2024H1 业绩预告点评 -Q2 收入创季度新高,前期投入收获 期或至》,2024.7.11 4.《中科飞测(688361.SH):半导体 量测设备龙头,打造国产薄弱环节平 台化企业》,2024.7.8 5.《需求复苏+库 ...
电力设备行业点评:光伏全面进入N型时代,BC电池增益效果明显
Tebon Securities· 2024-07-18 00:00
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the photovoltaic industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the advancements in BC (Bifacial Cell) technology, which shows significant efficiency improvements over traditional TOPCon products, with a reported increase in power generation by 9.55% for Aiko's ABC components compared to TOPCon [5]. - BC technology is recognized as a key driver for technological upgrades in the photovoltaic industry, with its complex manufacturing process creating high technical barriers [5]. - Major companies like Longi Green Energy and Aiko are rapidly expanding their BC production capacities, with Longi aiming for 70GW of total BC capacity by the end of 2025 [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The photovoltaic industry is transitioning into a new era with the adoption of advanced battery technologies, particularly BC technology, which offers higher conversion efficiency and better performance in low-light conditions [5]. Company Developments - Longi Green Energy plans to replace its production capacity to meet increasing market demand, targeting 200GW of monocrystalline silicon wafer capacity and 100GW of BC battery capacity by 2025 [6]. - Aiko has established a production capacity plan of 100GW for its ABC technology across multiple bases, achieving an average conversion efficiency of 27% for its ABC batteries [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on integrated component companies with new battery technologies, such as JinkoSolar, Longi, JA Solar, and Trina Solar, as well as leading inverter companies like Sungrow and DeYe, and stable auxiliary material companies like Foster and Flat [6].
电力设备行业点评:提高电网安全高质量发展,南方电网推动千亿级设备更新
Tebon Securities· 2024-07-18 00:00
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 电力设备 2024 年 07 月 17 日 电力设备 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 彭广春 资格编号:S0120522070001 邮箱:penggc@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 电力设备 沪深300 -44% -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 资料来源:聚源数据,德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《阳光电源:全球逆变器龙头企业, 多维度布局新能源业务》,2024.5.28 2.《九洲集团(300040.SZ): 业绩 短期承压,电网设备+并网规模增量 可期》,2024.5.26 3.《西子洁能(002534.SZ):计提资 产减值拉低 23 年利润,在手订单充 足静待花开》,2024.5.21 4.《隆基绿能(601012.SH)业绩点 评-减值拖累盈利,财务状况稳健穿 越行业周期,HPBC 电池技术实现差 异化竞争》,2024.5.12 5.《通威股份(600438.SH)业绩点 评-盈利阶段性承压,硅料电池双龙 头地位稳固,持续降本增效强化核心 竞争力》,2024.5 ...
传媒互联网行业6月报:AI视频有望迎来爆发;电影暑期档热度逐步提升
Tebon Securities· 2024-07-17 13:30
baao[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 传媒 2024 年 07 月 17 日 传媒 优于大市(维持) 证券分析师 马笑 资格编号:S0120522100002 邮箱:maxiao@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王梅卿 邮箱:wangmq@tebon.com.cn 市场表现 传媒 沪深300 -44% -37% -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 相关研究 1.《传媒互联网行业周报:关注百 度萝卜快跑产业链投资机会,快手 将 开 源 文 生 图 大 模 型 可 图 》 , 2024.7.14 2.《 传 媒 互 联 网 行 业 周 报 : WAIC2024 圆满落幕,青木股份更 名为青木科技》,2024.7.7 3.《6 月游戏行业点评:腾讯 DNF 和哔哩三谋等表现突出,跟踪暑期 档把握游戏低估值机会》, 2024.7.4 4.《传媒互联网行业周报:OpenAI 终止对中国大陆提供 API 服务,世 界 人 工 智 能 大 会 即 将 举 行 》 , 2024.6.30 5.《传媒互联网海外 7 月金股 ...
电力设备:光伏多企业布局沙特,出海迈上新高地
Tebon Securities· 2024-07-17 09:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant investments by multiple companies in Saudi Arabia's renewable energy sector, including a major energy storage project by Sungrow Power and new photovoltaic projects by JinkoSolar and TCL Zhonghuan [5][6] - The projects aim to enhance the stability and reliability of Saudi Arabia's power grid, aligning with the country's Vision 2030 goals [5] - The report identifies key players in the industry, recommending investment in companies with integrated component advantages, leading inverter manufacturers, and established auxiliary material firms [6] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Sungrow Power signed a contract for a 7.8GWh energy storage project in Saudi Arabia, with delivery starting in 2024 and full capacity expected by 2025 [5] - JinkoSolar plans to establish a joint venture for a 10GW high-efficiency battery-grade component project in Saudi Arabia, with an investment of approximately 9.85 billion USD [6] - TCL Zhonghuan aims to build a 20GW photovoltaic crystal chip factory in Saudi Arabia, with a total investment of around 20.8 billion USD [6] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include JinkoSolar, LONGi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar for their integrated component advantages [6] - Leading inverter manufacturers such as Sungrow Power and DeYe are expected to benefit from overall market growth [6] - Established auxiliary material companies like Foster and Flat Glass are also highlighted for their stable market positions [6]