Group 1: Global Commodity Outlook - The World Bank projects a 5% decline in the overall commodity price index by 2025, followed by a further 2% drop in 2026, driven by improved supply conditions[31] - Energy prices are expected to decrease by 6% in 2024, with Brent crude oil averaging $80 per barrel, falling to $73 per barrel in 2025[31] - Agricultural prices are forecasted to decline by 9% in 2024 and 4% in 2025, stabilizing in 2026 due to favorable global harvests and climate conditions[36] Group 2: State Capital Concentration - The effective concentration of state capital in strategic emerging industries is anticipated to enhance national security in defense, food, and energy sectors, with increased support for information security, aerospace, and renewable energy industries[4] - Emphasis on strategic and specialized restructuring is expected to facilitate the integration and development of related emerging industries, allowing leading companies to grow stronger[4] - State capital will focus on technology attributes and emerging fields, promoting high-tech and high-quality production capabilities, thereby enhancing overall productivity[4] Group 3: High-Frequency Macro Data - Daily average steel production has shown a month-on-month increase, while construction material inventory has decreased year-on-year[5] - Passenger car wholesale and retail sales have increased year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of vehicle replacement policies[5] - The land transaction area in second and third-tier cities has risen year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in real estate activity[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal market is expected to see a rebound due to the impact of cold weather, which is anticipated to increase demand for coal as heating needs rise [3] - The report highlights that the coal price is likely to stabilize around 850 RMB/ton, with a potential rise to over 1000 RMB/ton by 2025, supported by a recovering economy and stable demand [3][7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal mining sector has underperformed the market with a decline of 0.9% compared to a 1.9% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [116] - The report notes that the price of thermal coal has decreased by 1.55% to 824 RMB/ton, while coking coal prices remained stable at 1640 RMB/ton [5][54] Price Analysis - The report indicates a divergence in coal prices, with thermal coal prices declining while coking coal prices have remained stable [54] - The average price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port for Q5500 grade is reported at 824 RMB/ton, down 1.55% from the previous week [54][5] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a slight increase in coal supply due to the resumption of production in major mining areas, while demand remains stable [3] - The report highlights that the total coal production in China for the first ten months of 2024 reached 3.892 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [119] Inventory Analysis - The total inventory at major ports has increased, with southern ports showing a rise of 1.99% and northern ports increasing by 5.27% [91] - The report states that the inventory at Qinhuangdao port decreased by 1.15% to 6.85 million tons [92] International Market - The report discusses the international coal market, noting a narrowing price gap between domestic and international coal prices, with the price difference for thermal coal at 42.38 RMB/ton [115] - The Newcastle port thermal coal price is reported at 87.8 USD/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.57% [106]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of export tax rebates for UCO (Used Cooking Oil) is expected to weaken exports and disrupt the low-quality competition cycle within the industry. This change may lead domestic UCO companies to shift their focus towards domestic sales, breaking the reliance on export subsidies [6][9] - The domestic SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) industry is accelerating, with several companies achieving significant milestones in product certification and production [9][32] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The cancellation of export tax rebates for UCO is anticipated to enhance raw material self-sufficiency and reduce costs for domestic producers, potentially improving the global competitiveness of China's biomass fuels [6][7] - The domestic SAF sector is witnessing rapid development, with multiple companies obtaining necessary certifications and producing compliant products [9][32] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index decreased by 0.6% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.3 percentage points [4][37] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has declined by 2.5%, underperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [4][37] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 426 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 195 stocks rose while 226 fell during the week. The top gainers included Zhuoyue New Energy (+61.5%) and Fospower Technology (+61.2%) [42] - The top decliners included Zhizheng Co., Ltd. (-16.1%) and Lingpai Technology (-15.0%) [42] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for certain chemical products, including UCO, effective December 1, 2024 [5] - The price of European SAF has increased significantly, indicating a rising demand for biofuels [5] 5. Product Price and Spread Analysis - The report highlights significant price fluctuations in various chemical products, with notable increases in vitamins and natural gas prices [10] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets that have entered a long-term value zone, as well as industries facing supply constraints that may see price elasticity [11][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Views - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to a rise in safe-haven asset prices, particularly gold and silver, with gold prices increasing by 5.4% domestically and silver prices rising by 3.5% [3][4]. - The report highlights that the domestic aluminum price remains strong, with the average price of domestic alumina increasing by 2.82% to 5633.53 CNY/ton [4]. - The report suggests that the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from favorable monetary policies and economic recovery, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals [9]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have risen significantly, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange closing at 624 CNY/gram, reflecting a weekly change of 5.4% and an annual increase of 34.0% [41]. - COMEX gold futures closed at 2718 USD/ounce, with a weekly increase of 5.9% [41]. Industrial Metals - Domestic metal prices have shown mixed trends, with copper prices declining by 0.1% to 73760 CNY/ton, while aluminum prices decreased by 1.7% to 20420 CNY/ton [56][67]. - The report notes that the aluminum industry is facing profit pressures, with the cost of electrolytic aluminum at 21096 CNY/ton and a profit margin of -396 CNY/ton [70]. Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have decreased, while tungsten concentrate prices have increased, indicating a potential recovery in demand for tungsten in manufacturing [5]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded, with a focus on the growth of energy metal demand in the future [5]. - The report recommends monitoring companies such as China Minmetals, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium for potential investment opportunities [5].

Group 1: USD Strength and RMB Resilience - The USD index reached a new high of 107.49 on November 22, surpassing levels from late June 2023 and approaching levels seen in October 2023[4] - The RMB exchange rate moved from approximately 7.1 in early October to around 7.25 by late November, showing resilience despite the strong USD[4] - Current USD to RMB levels are not considered high compared to 7.27 in late June and 7.3 in October 2022, indicating RMB's relative strength[4] Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Resilience - Domestic policies have improved economic growth expectations, reversing previous pessimism and contributing to RMB's resilience[4] - The exit of foreign trade companies from interest rate arbitrage has led to a concentrated release of settlement demand, supporting the RMB[5] - The "trade surplus not settled" gap has shown signs of slowing expansion, indicating a potential return of USD income to the domestic market[6] Group 3: Risks to RMB Exchange Rate - Short-term risks include the potential for the USD to strengthen further if the US economy shows resilience and the Fed pauses rate hikes in December[9] - Mid-term risks involve the possibility of the Euro weakening, which could maintain USD strength due to economic recovery issues in core Eurozone countries[10] - Long-term risks stem from the Biden administration's fiscal policies, which may continue to support a strong USD despite concerns over US sovereign credit[10] Group 4: Commodity Market Implications - The strengthening USD has led to a decline in commodity prices, with COMEX gold and LME copper prices dropping to $2,576 per ounce and $8,768 per ton, respectively[11] - A further strengthening of the USD may create buying opportunities in commodities, particularly gold, which remains a key asset in portfolio diversification[11] - Demand for metals is expected to rise due to technological advancements, particularly in AI and data centers, which will drive consumption of copper and tin[11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail trade industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The "Guzi Economy" is highlighted as a high-growth market with a fragmented landscape and an increasing number of players, driven by the rapid development of the "ACG" (Anime, Comic, Game) culture [3][12]. - The overall market size for the ACG and its derivative markets reached 221.9 billion yuan in 2023, with the peripheral and derivative market accounting for 102.4 billion yuan, showing a growth rate that has consistently outpaced the content market since 2017 [3][12]. - The number of users in the ACG sector is on the rise, reaching 500 million in 2023, with younger generations, particularly those born after 2000, expected to drive future growth [14]. - The report emphasizes the rapid increase in consumer spending in the ACG sector, particularly in the collectible toy market, which is largely driven by IP licensing and high demand from fans [20]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes a significant increase in the trading volume and market activity within the ACG sector, with a notable 104% year-on-year growth in second-hand transactions on platforms like Xianyu [20]. Competitive Landscape - The peripheral market for ACG products is characterized by low concentration, with many competitors and a high level of consumer bargaining power, leading to intense competition [4][22]. - Key players include Pop Mart, 52toys, and Miniso, each focusing on different aspects of the supply chain and market strategy [4][22]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities within the "Guzi Economy": - **Guangbo Co., Ltd.**: Focuses on cultural and creative products, leveraging partnerships with well-known IPs to enhance its product offerings [23][24]. - **Aofei Entertainment**: A leading player in the ACG IP space, known for its collaborations with popular brands to create merchandise [25]. - **Morning Glory Co., Ltd.**: Engages in the ACG market with various brands and has successfully launched products in collaboration with popular games [26]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. **Consumer Sentiment**: Emphasizing beauty and personal care sectors, with recommendations for companies like Juzhibio and Aimeike [28]. 2. **Cross-Border E-commerce**: Despite short-term tariff concerns, long-term growth is expected, with companies like Pop Mart and Miniso highlighted [29]. 3. **Recovery in Traditional Retail**: Identifying potential rebounds in the restaurant and retail sectors, with a focus on companies like Haidilao and Yonghui Superstores [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - November retail sales for narrow passenger vehicles are expected to reach 2.4 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 15.4% and a month-on-month increase of 6.1% [3][14] - The penetration rate for new energy vehicles is projected to be approximately 53.3% in November, indicating a seasonal strengthening of the new energy market [3][14] - The Ministry of Commerce is planning to advance next year's vehicle replacement policy to stabilize market expectations and promote the trade of used cars [3][14] - Major automakers are accelerating the electrification and intelligence of their vehicles, supported by favorable policies that are expected to sustain steady growth in industry sales [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Key News - The China Passenger Car Association forecasts November retail sales of narrow passenger vehicles at 2.4 million units, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 1.28 million units [3][14] - The Ministry of Commerce reports that the number of vehicle scrapping and replacement applications has exceeded 2 million, with a 50% year-on-year increase in scrapped vehicle recovery from January to October [3][14] - Xiaopeng Motors is launching its first model, the G6, in the UK market [3][14] - Geely's new brand "firefly" is set to launch its first model in mid-2025 [3][14] 2. Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with the CSI 300 index declining by 2.60% while the automotive sector fell by only 1.92% [4][18] - The report highlights that the automotive sector's performance ranks 18th among the major sectors in the A-share market this week [4][18] 3. Valuation Trends - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and automotive parts have seen a decline this week [4][24][25] - The report indicates a slight decrease in the PE ratio for the automotive parts sector [4][25] 4. New Vehicle Releases - Upcoming vehicle launches include the MG7, Zhijie S7, and BinYue, with expected release dates in late November 2024 [4][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [2] Core Insights - The continuous development of domestic computing power is accompanied by the adoption of liquid cooling solutions, which are becoming essential for improving data center energy efficiency [3][26] - The demand for liquid cooling servers is entering a growth phase characterized by both volume and price increases, with a projected CAGR of 47.6% from 2023 to 2028 in China's liquid cooling server market [27][28] - Nvidia's recent financial performance indicates sustained demand for computing power, which is further supported by the ongoing US-China technological competition that opens up opportunities for domestic alternatives [28][30] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - The quality and scale of computing power are growing in resonance, with policies improving data center energy efficiency. In 2023, China's data center electricity consumption reached 150 billion kWh, a 15.4% increase year-on-year, accounting for 1.63% of total national electricity consumption [3][26] - Liquid cooling solutions are effective in enhancing data center efficiency, with the Chinese liquid cooling server market reaching $1.26 billion in the first half of 2024, a 98.3% year-on-year increase [27][28] - Nvidia reported a record revenue of $35.1 billion for Q3 of the 2025 fiscal year, reflecting a 94% year-on-year growth, indicating strong and ongoing demand for computing power [30] Industry News - Nvidia's Q3 revenue highlights the robust demand for AI computing power, suggesting potential growth opportunities for domestic computing power alternatives due to import restrictions [30] - SpaceX's successful sixth test flight of the Starship and FAA's approval for increased launch frequency signal a competitive acceleration in global satellite internet deployment [31] - The successful completion of 6G integrated testing by China Telecom indicates advancements towards direct satellite communication capabilities [34] - The National Data Bureau's draft guidelines for national data infrastructure construction signify a shift in focus towards data infrastructure, presenting new opportunities for traditional communication equipment manufacturers [35][37] Weekly Review and Recommended Portfolio - The communication sector experienced a decline of 3.56% this week, with a focus on investment opportunities in domestic computing power, satellite internet, and digital infrastructure [38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a turning point in 2025, indicating the potential for a new cycle [2] - The white liquor sector saw a brief recovery during the Spring Festival in early 2024, but demand weakened post-peak, leading to a gradual valuation adjustment. Stimulus policies introduced in Q3 have since improved market sentiment [2][4] - The mass consumer goods sector has shown signs of fatigue due to weak consumer power, but high-cost performance products are gaining popularity. A moderate recovery in domestic demand is anticipated in 2025, driven by both internal and external factors [2][4] - The overall industry is at a bottom waiting for recovery, with policy space expected to open up [2] Summary by Sections 2024 Review - The food and beverage sector has faced pressure, with a year-to-date decline of 5.41% as of November 15, 2024. The sector's performance has been significantly influenced by macroeconomic conditions and terminal demand [10] - The white liquor sector has declined by 8.10% year-to-date, while the mass consumer goods sector has shown a mixed performance, with soft drinks up by 19.09% [17] Investment Recommendations - For the white liquor sector, it is recommended to focus on undervalued leading companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, among others. Additionally, companies like Shui Jing Fang and Zhen Jiu Li Du are expected to benefit from demand recovery [4] - In the mass consumer goods sector, attention should be paid to the restaurant supply chain, seasoning products, and the beer and beverage segments, which are expected to benefit from consumption policies [4] 2025 Outlook - The industry is expected to see a reversal in fundamentals, with a series of policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand. The GDP growth rate is projected to remain strong, with consumer spending contributing significantly to economic growth [28] - The restaurant sector is showing signs of moderate recovery, with a positive outlook for food and beverage demand as policies take effect [28]

Group 1: Framework and Analysis - The report presents a framework for analyzing U.S. Treasury yields, integrating "real interest rates + inflation expectations" and "risk-neutral rates + term premiums" as two main paradigms of nominal yield analysis[2] - The combined framework results in a four-factor model for U.S. Treasury yields, which includes expected real interest rates, inflation expectations, actual risk premiums, and inflation risk premiums[3] - The analysis indicates that from September 16, 2024, to October 31, 2024, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y) increased by 66.99 basis points (bp), with contributions from various factors: expected real interest rates (E(RIR) +13.64bp, 20.36%), inflation expectations (E(π) +9.72bp, 14.51%), risk premium (TP_RRP +32.29bp, 48.20%), and inflation risk premium (TP_IRP +11.34bp, 16.93%)[4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The expected real interest rate (E(RIR)) reflects strong economic resilience in the U.S., with a potential short-term maintenance at relatively high levels due to the impact of Trump's policy 2.0[6] - Inflation expectations (E(π)) have been slightly revised upwards, but the Federal Reserve maintains a long-term inflation target around 2%, suggesting limited future contributions to Treasury yields from this factor[6] - The term premium related to inflation risk (TP_IRP) is influenced by potential inflation volatility, with the likelihood of significant spikes being low due to the Fed's normalization path and political uncertainties[7] Group 3: Market Trends and Future Outlook - Recent trends indicate that U.S. Treasury yields are showing signs of peaking, with upward momentum slowing down, suggesting that the most intense phase of trading related to Trump may have passed[8] - The report anticipates that by the end of 2024, the 10-year Treasury yield may oscillate around 4.7%, particularly if economic resilience continues and the December FOMC meeting results in a pause in rate hikes[9] - In the medium to long term, while normalization of monetary policy is expected to continue, the downward movement of nominal rates may be limited due to the influence of term premiums on long-term yields, potentially leading to a "bear steepening" of the yield curve[9]