Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the communication industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The signing of a memorandum of cooperation between Shanghai Yuanxin Satellite Technology Co., Ltd. and Brazil's state-owned telecom company Telecomunica es Brasileiras S.A. marks a significant step in the global satellite communication landscape, indicating China's progress in achieving global satellite signal coverage [4][5]. - The "Qianfan" satellite constellation, which is designed to provide comprehensive satellite communication services, is expected to consist of over 14,000 low-orbit broadband multimedia satellites, with 1,296 satellites planned for the first phase [4]. - The report highlights the rapid advancements in satellite internet infrastructure in China, with numerous successful satellite launches and the establishment of ground stations, indicating a robust growth potential in the satellite internet sector [4][6]. - The competition between China and the U.S. in the satellite internet domain is intensifying, with SpaceX leading in satellite launches and establishing a vast satellite communication network, while China aims to launch over 28,000 satellites in the future [4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The communication sector has shown varying performance, with a notable decline of 26% from November 2023 to March 2024 compared to the CSI 300 index [3]. Related Research - Several reports have been published recently, focusing on the intensifying competition in core technologies, the impact of sanctions, and the opening of value-added telecom services [4]. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the emerging trends in domestic satellite To C (consumer) applications, showcasing the potential for commercial viability and the formation of a business ecosystem [5][6]. - New services such as satellite internet packages and mobile satellite communication are being introduced, indicating a growing market for satellite services [6]. Suggested Focus Stocks - The report lists several companies across various segments, including satellite manufacturing, communication security, and ground equipment, which are poised to benefit from the growth in the satellite internet sector [7].

证券分析师 姓名：陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 证券分析师 姓名：李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 0 证券研究报告 | 行业年度策略 计算机 行业投资评级 | 优于大市（维持） 2024年11月19日 围绕自主可控的新质生产力再创新 ——计算机行业2025年年度策略 研究助理 姓名：王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 核心逻辑 新一轮创新周期正在蓄能，重拾信心研发投入有望回暖加速产品迭代。 复盘移动互联网和云计算两大创新周期，都表现出流动性宽松&技术爆发下研发投入增加、新品供给活跃度提升的特征，最终形成科技牛市行情。12-15年（移动互联网）：创业板指和计算机（申万）指数最高点，分别为 3982.25、10340.48，相较12年初，最高累计涨幅达到463.18%、607.75%；19-21年（云计算）：创业板指和计算机（申万）指数最高点，分别为3563.13、6724.39，相较12年初，累计涨幅分别为403.90%、360.25%。 新一轮创新大周期的条件正在完善：一 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Baofeng Energy (600989.SH) [1] Core Views - Baofeng Energy is a leading domestic coal-to-olefins enterprise with a comprehensive "coal-coke-olefins" integrated industrial chain, currently holding coal mining rights capacity of 11.02 million tons/year, coke capacity of 7 million tons/year, and olefins capacity of 2.2 million tons/year [4][25] - The company has shown strong growth potential with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.8% in revenue and 23.9% in net profit from 2013 to 2023, with a gross margin of 37% and a net margin of 22% [4][40] Summary by Sections 1. Baofeng Energy: Domestic Coal-to-Olefins Leader - The company has expanded its scale through acquisitions and project developments, establishing three main business segments: olefins, coking, and fine chemicals [25][29] 2. A Reliable Chemical Growth Leader: Steady Capacity Release and Cost Advantages 2.1. Strong Growth Momentum: Capacity Enters High-Speed Release Period - The company is entering a significant production phase in 2024, with the Inner Mongolia Phase I 3 million tons olefins project expected to start production in November 2023, increasing total olefins capacity to 5.2 million tons/year, approximately 2.4 times the current capacity [5][53] - Future plans include a 500,000 tons/year olefins capacity in Ningdong Phase IV and a 4 million tons/year capacity in Xinjiang, potentially increasing total olefins capacity to 9.7 million tons/year, 4.4 times the current capacity [5][53] 2.2. Significant Cost Advantages: Olefins Cost Curve on the Left Side - The company benefits from a cost advantage in coal-to-olefins production, with a cost saving of 1,490 RMB/ton compared to China Shenhua in 2023 [6][56] - The Inner Mongolia project is expected to further reduce costs by approximately 873 RMB/ton due to advanced technology and shorter transportation distances [6][56] 3. Price Judgments on Olefins: Weakening Correlation with Oil Prices - The correlation between olefins prices and oil prices has weakened, with the sensitivity of olefins prices to oil prices decreasing as production capacity expands [7][9] - The global olefins production capacity growth is expected to slow down, with a projected CAGR of 3.5% for polyethylene and 3.7% for polypropylene from 2024 to 2026 [9][9] 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 65.58 billion RMB, 141.35 billion RMB, and 169.90 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 0.89 RMB, 1.93 RMB, and 2.32 RMB [9][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the beauty and personal care industry [2]. Core Insights - Traditional agency operators like Liren Lizhuang and Yiwang Yichuang are experiencing significant declines, with Liren Lizhuang's revenue in 2023 being only 60% of its peak in 2020, and Yiwang Yichuang showing stagnation from 2020 to 2023 [8][19]. - The report identifies several factors contributing to the decline of traditional operators, including reliance on a single market segment, failure to adapt to new sales channels like Douyin, and the shift of brands from agency partnerships to in-house teams [8][19]. - Companies like Qingmu Technology and Ruoyuchen are showing high growth by adapting their business models and expanding into new markets [19][20]. Summary by Sections Traditional Agency Operators - Liren Lizhuang's revenue in 2023 was only 60% of its 2020 peak, with a continued decline in net profit growth in Q1-Q3 of 2024 compared to 2023 [8]. - Yiwang Yichuang's performance has been stagnant from 2020 to 2023, with a noticeable drop in profits [8]. - Key reasons for the decline include a narrow focus on specific product categories, rapid changes in sales channels, and the inability to maintain brand partnerships as brands shift to self-managed teams [8][19]. New Business Models - Water Sheep Co. has transitioned from a traditional TP model to a CP model, focusing on sustainable partnerships with brands and offering comprehensive operational services [11]. - Qingmu Technology has embraced high-growth sectors, maintaining a stable revenue share from agency operations while expanding into new categories and leveraging technology for growth [16][19]. - Both companies are actively acquiring or incubating their own brands, with Water Sheep's acquisition of the luxury brand Ifidan showing promising results [20][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that traditional agency operators should seek transformation by diversifying product categories, exploring new sales channels, and collaborating with new brands to sustain growth [27]. - The shift from agency to brand ownership is highlighted as a strategic move for companies like Ruoyuchen and Qingmu Technology, which have the operational resources and e-commerce expertise to support this transition [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2]. Core Insights - North American AI application companies have exceeded performance expectations, and the future demand for infrastructure is becoming clearer [4]. - The acceleration of AI applications by major internet companies is expected to lead to bulk orders for domestic training cards to meet high-speed inference needs [6]. - The development of AI terminals is promising, with advancements in AI glasses and smart driving technologies anticipated [7]. Summary by Sections Application Developments - Companies like AppLovin, Palantir, and Salesforce have shown significant progress in their respective fields, driving stock performance. AppLovin's stock rose by 630.46% from the beginning of 2024 to November 15, 2024, while Palantir's revenue reached $726 million, a 30% year-on-year increase, with a stock rise of 283.05% in the same period. Salesforce's new Agentforce platform has also contributed to a 24.16% stock increase [5]. Cloud Computing and AI Infrastructure - The report highlights three catalysts for domestic computing power: 1. Overseas policies restricting advanced chip supplies to mainland China, increasing the urgency for domestic production. 2. Domestic policies supporting AI computing power, particularly in the context of self-controlled innovation. 3. The expected increase in domestic AI chip production as a response to these policies [5]. AI Terminal Innovations - The report notes advancements in AI glasses, with companies like Meta and Apple making significant moves in this space. Additionally, Tesla's upcoming FSD V13 is expected to enhance autonomous driving capabilities significantly [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in domestic computing power, AI glasses, smart driving, and AI smartphones, including HaiGuang Information, Huafeng Technology, and others [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent adjustment in export tax rebate policies is expected to impact domestic aluminum exports significantly, with a potential reduction in price competitiveness for domestic products [6][5] - The policy change may lead to a narrowing of the price gap between domestic and international aluminum prices, with estimates suggesting a maximum adjustment of 1351 RMB per ton [7] - Despite short-term risks of price declines due to the policy changes, the report anticipates a gradual improvement in domestic demand, supporting a strong outlook for aluminum prices in the long term [8] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown varying performance, with a notable decline of 22% from November 2023 to March 2024 compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum and copper products, effective December 1, 2024 [4] - The volume of aluminum products affected by the rebate cancellation has been significant, with totals of 540.37 million tons in 2021, 612.60 million tons in 2022, and 523.67 million tons in 2023 [5] Price Impact - As of November 17, 2024, domestic aluminum prices have shown a decline, with Shanghai aluminum at 20,460 RMB per ton, reflecting a 1.63% drop, while London aluminum prices increased by 5.56% to 2,656.5 USD per ton [6] - The report projects that if the current trade levels are to be maintained, the domestic price may need to adjust downward while international prices may rise, leading to a more balanced market [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests several companies for investment, including Ming Tai Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Nanshan Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, and Lizhong Group, indicating a positive outlook for these firms despite short-term price risks [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential for price increases in chemical products and the development of coal chemical industry in Xinjiang as two main investment themes [1] - The supply-demand tightness combined with smooth pricing trends suggests that the price increase for propanol is likely to continue [5] - The report emphasizes that the leaf acid market is experiencing significant price increases, with expectations for this trend to exceed previous forecasts [6] - The coal chemical industry in Xinjiang is expected to benefit from substantial investments and policy support, positioning it as a key area for future growth [7][8] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that recent policies aimed at boosting the economy, particularly in real estate and consumption, are expected to enhance demand for chemical products [31] - It suggests that the chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved supply-side conditions and increased global market share [31][32] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index decreased by 3.6% during the week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [36] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has declined by 1.9%, significantly lagging behind the broader market indices [36] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 426 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 92 stocks rose while 332 fell during the week [43] - The top gainers included companies like Bofei Electric (+30.9%) and Jiaao Environmental Protection (+25.7%), while the largest decliners included companies like Bluefeng Biochemical (-25.9%) and Yanggu Huatai (-18.7%) [43] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report notes that 25 central enterprises are expected to invest approximately 939.57 billion yuan in Xinjiang's coal and chemical sectors by 2028 [4][8] - The price of propanol has increased by 13.7% week-on-week, indicating strong market demand [4] 5. Product Price and Price Difference Analysis - The report details significant price increases for various chemical products, with leaf acid prices rising by 22.2% [9] - It also highlights the price fluctuations of other chemicals, indicating a mixed performance across the sector [9] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets that are entering a long-term value zone, with companies like Baofeng Energy and Wanhua Chemical highlighted for potential recovery [10] - It also emphasizes the importance of supply constraints in certain chemical products, recommending companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Harmony for their pricing power [10]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|行业周报 商贸零售 2024 年 11 月 17 日 商贸零售 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 2023/1…2023/1…2023/1… 商贸 零售 沪深 300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《中国中免：盈利能力略有下降， 静待客单价复苏》，2024.11.13 2.《——商社周报 11.10-大选落地后 关税担忧升级，出口链影响几何？》， 2024.11.10 3.《——商贸社服周专题 1103-为何 达播主导今年双十一？》，2024.11.3 4.《——商社周报 1026-宠物三季报 总结：板块延续高景气，双十一开售 数据亮眼》，2024.10.26 5.《——商贸社服周报 1020-双十一 首周总结：胶原成分爆发，品牌表现 分化》，2024.10.20 双十一总结：美妆赛道国货领先， 宠食赛道高景气度 ——商贸社服周专题 1117 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 周专题：2024 年双十一结束，平台端 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Insights - The core insight of the report highlights the cancellation of export tax rebates for copper and aluminum products starting December 1, 2024, which may impact market dynamics [4]. - The report notes that the price of alumina remains strong, with a recent increase in average domestic prices [5]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a decline of 22% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [3]. - Recent price movements indicate a downward trend in various metals, with copper and aluminum prices decreasing by 4.2% [5][57]. Key Data Points - As of November 15, 2024, the SHFE copper price is 73,860 CNY/ton, down 4.2% week-on-week, while LME copper is at 9,055 USD/ton, down 2.9% [57]. - The average price of domestic alumina is reported at 5,567 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.21% [5]. - The report indicates that the total capacity for electrolytic aluminum in China is 45.01 million tons, with an operating capacity of 43.76 million tons, resulting in a utilization rate of 97.45% [75]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals and industrial metals, with specific stock recommendations including Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining for gold and copper respectively [7]. - It emphasizes the potential for price recovery in industrial metals driven by policy support and economic expectations [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that national policies are strongly promoting the future of coal chemical industry in Xinjiang, with significant investments expected to enhance energy security and support economic development in the region [4][6] - Xinjiang is projected to become a strategic resource base for the country, with coal production expected to increase significantly during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of local coal mining and conversion, suggesting that on-site transformation will become mainstream due to tightening approvals for new coal production capacities in other regions [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry has shown a performance trend with fluctuations ranging from -34% to +26% compared to the CSI 300 index from November 2023 to July 2024 [3] Policy and Investment - A total of 183 projects have been signed with an expected investment of 939.57 billion yuan by 2028, focusing on coal, oil, gas, and renewable energy in Xinjiang [4][6] - Key projects include a 170 billion yuan coal-to-oil project and several coal chemical utilization projects, indicating a robust pipeline for coal chemical development in Xinjiang [6] Coal Production and Competitiveness - Xinjiang's coal resources are substantial, with an estimated 2.19 trillion tons of coal available, accounting for about 40% of the national total [5] - The report notes that Xinjiang's coal production has increased by 19.1% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2024, outpacing national growth [5] Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in coal mining and chemical production in Xinjiang, including Guanghui Energy, Baofeng Energy, and Hubei Yihua, as well as engineering and service firms supporting Xinjiang's development [7][8]