Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Vertex Software (603383.SH), as it is covered for the first time [2][4]. Core Views - Vertex Software has over 20 years of experience in the securities IT sector and is expected to benefit from the digital transformation in the securities industry, particularly through its leading position in the "信创" (Xinchuang) initiative [3][4]. - The company has a rich product line that serves various departments within securities firms and is expanding into banking, futures, asset management, trust, and non-financial sectors [16][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Deepening Securities IT for High Growth - Vertex Software was established in 1996 and has evolved through three key phases: the foundational phase of centralized trading systems (2001-2007), expansion into other financial sectors (2008-2019), and a focus on Xinchuang with the launch of the A5 trading system [14][15]. - The company has shown significant growth, with a revenue increase of 19% in 2023, outperforming peers like 恒生电子 (Hang Seng Electronics) and 金证股份 (Jinzhen Co.) [24]. 2. Leading Xinchuang Layout - The company is positioned to capture market share during the critical upgrade of core trading systems in the securities industry, which is transitioning to distributed architectures [3][4]. - Vertex Software has successfully implemented the A5 system at Dongwu Securities, marking a significant milestone in the industry for full-stack Xinchuang deployment [3][19]. 3. Seizing Opportunities in Asset Management Transformation - The company is leveraging the transformation of securities firms and asset management to expand its product offerings, including wealth management and investment banking solutions [3][4]. - Vertex Software has established partnerships with over 40 asset management institutions, enhancing its market presence [20][22]. 4. Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for Vertex Software is projected to be 800 million, 930 million, and 1.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 250 million, 300 million, and 360 million yuan [4][24].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 通信 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------------------------| | | 2024 年 10 月 17 | | 千帆星座 通信 | 年提供服务，运营商 | | 优于大市（维持） | 切入合作有望加速落地 | 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 王金森 资格编号：S0120524090005 邮箱：wangjs＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 通信 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《市场震荡，"双强"标的具有持续 性》，2024.10.12 2.《BP 机事件和国家扶持政策，通 信 行 业 高 增 长 具 有 持 续 性 》， 2024.9.28 3.《北三备份星成功发射，北斗规模 应用条件成熟》，2024.9.23 4.《国内服务器出货，带来铜连接投 资机会》，2024.9.22 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, 晶晨股份 (688099.SH) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by market recovery and new product launches. Projected revenue is approximately 4.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 20.3%, and net profit is expected to be around 594 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 89.3% [4][5] - The third quarter is anticipated to set a new record for revenue, with an estimated 1.62 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% and a stable quarter-on-quarter performance. The gross margin is expected to be around 38.2%, up approximately 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [4][5] - The company continues to invest heavily in R&D, with a focus on expanding its product matrix and achieving breakthroughs in multiple new products [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company has experienced a relative performance of -43% compared to the沪深300 index as of October 2023 [3] Financial Data and Forecast - For 2024, the company forecasts revenues of 6.89 billion yuan and net profits of 797 million yuan, with a projected P/E ratio of 36 [6][7] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 36.4% in 2023 to 37.0% in 2024, with net profit margin increasing from 9.3% to 11.6% [7][9] Product Strategy - The T series products have seen over 50% year-on-year sales growth, while the W series Wi-Fi 6 chips have gained significant market share in domestic operator tenders [4][5] - The company has secured initial commercial orders for its 6nm chips based on the new ARM V9 architecture, which will be used in flagship products by several global operators [4][5] R&D Investment - The company has increased its R&D personnel by approximately 60 compared to the same period last year, with R&D expenses reaching about 1.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.07 billion yuan [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 740 million yuan for Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 43.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 60 million yuan, down 30.8% year-over-year. The revenue growth was driven by the recovery in the semiconductor industry and increased demand for high-performance chip testing [3][4] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 was 34.4%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points year-over-year. However, excluding stock-based compensation, the net profit attributable to shareholders would have been 106 million yuan, reflecting an 18.5% year-over-year increase [3] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 310 million yuan, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 26.0%, marking a historical high. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 50 million yuan, up 358.3% quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin of 42.5%, an increase of 12.4 percentage points [3][4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a current price of 59.00 yuan and a market performance comparison against the CSI 300 index [2] Financial Data - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,095 million yuan and a net profit of 132 million yuan. The expected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 51, 30, and 22 times, respectively [5][6] Business Strategy - The company focuses on high-end chip testing, with a strategy to expand into industrial-grade, automotive-grade, and high-performance product testing. It has successfully overcome testing challenges for various high-end chips and is now a leading provider of high-end chip testing services in mainland China [4][5] Future Outlook - The company anticipates revenue growth to reach 1,095 million yuan in 2024, 1,393 million yuan in 2025, and 1,623 million yuan in 2026, with net profits projected at 132 million yuan, 225 million yuan, and 302 million yuan for the same years [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the copper industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The copper market is experiencing a second price increase in 2024, driven by a shift in monetary policy from tightening to easing, with the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut boosting market sentiment [5][12][14] - Global copper supply is tightening, with a decrease in copper ore imports and an increase in refined copper exports, indicating a shift towards a more balanced supply-demand scenario [6][25] - Demand for copper is strong in sectors such as electricity, new energy vehicles, and home appliances, with significant growth in investment in power generation and grid infrastructure [31][36] Summary by Sections 1. Interest Rate Impact and Price Trends - The Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September 2024 has positively impacted copper prices, marking a transition to a looser monetary policy environment [12][14] - U.S. non-farm employment rose by 254,000 in September, exceeding expectations, which has alleviated concerns about the labor market [5][12] 2. Supply Dynamics - Copper ore imports in China decreased by 4.4% year-on-year in August 2024, while refined copper exports surged by 49.57% in the same month [25][23] - The spot price for copper concentrate has increased from $2.60 per dry ton at the end of June to $9.10 per dry ton by early October 2024 [23] 3. Demand Drivers - The electricity sector accounted for 46.7% of copper consumption, with significant investments in power generation and grid projects showing a year-on-year increase of 5.1% and 23.1%, respectively [31][36] - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing rapid growth, with production and sales of electric vehicles increasing by 32% and 33% year-on-year [31][36] 4. Inventory Levels - Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory has been decreasing since July 2024, while LME copper inventory remains at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [44] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and others, indicating a positive outlook for the copper sector [50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that policy initiatives are expected to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, highlighting cyclical investment opportunities [4][46] - The expansionary fiscal policy signals a shift that may alleviate market concerns and boost economic confidence, potentially increasing demand for end-use chemical products [4][46] - The current chemical production expansion cycle since 2021 may be nearing its end, with new policies aimed at high-quality development likely to lead to significant improvements in domestic supply [4][46] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The basic chemical sector underperformed the market this week, with the industry index declining by 10.7%, ranking 20th among 30 sectors [4][48] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has decreased by 8.0%, underperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index by 16.6 and 21.2 percentage points, respectively [4][48] Investment Opportunities 1. **Core Assets**: Current chemical product profitability may have bottomed out, with potential for valuation and earnings recovery. Key companies to watch include Baofeng Energy, Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Satellite Chemical [4][46] 2. **Supply Constraints**: Certain chemical products are experiencing supply disruptions, leading to price increases. Notable sectors include vitamins, sucralose, refrigerants, and polyester filament [5][46] 3. **Demand Certainty**: Sectors such as civil explosives, modified plastics, and compound fertilizers are expected to see upward demand trends, with key companies including Yipuli, Jiangnan Chemical, and Shidanli [6][46] 4. **High Dividend Resources**: High dividend assets are likely to see a revaluation, with focus on phosphate and titanium resources, as well as oil companies like CNOOC and Sinopec [6][47] Key News and Announcements - The government announced a series of fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth and demand, including increased debt limits and special government bonds to support state-owned banks [4][56] - Wanhua Chemical has resumed normal production after maintenance of its PDH unit, which has a capacity of 750,000 tons per year [57] - Other companies, such as Guotai Group and Chuanjinno, are also making significant investments and expansions in their respective sectors [57][58]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the consumer electronics sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The consumer electronics industry is entering a traditional peak season in Q4, with major Android manufacturers expected to launch flagship smartphones, which is anticipated to boost sales and user upgrade intentions [2][6]. - The introduction of new SoC chips from MediaTek and Qualcomm is expected to enhance AI capabilities and overall performance in smartphones, further driving consumer interest [3][6]. - The report highlights the rapid iteration of operating systems and AI integration across various brands, including Huawei's HarmonyOS NEXT and Xiaomi's Surge OS 2.0, which are set to enhance user experience [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The consumer electronics sector has shown a significant decline of 29% compared to the CSI 300 index, indicating a challenging market environment [2]. SoC and AI Developments - MediaTek's Dimensity 9400 SoC was launched on October 9, featuring a 35% increase in single-core performance and a 28% increase in multi-core performance compared to its predecessor, with a 40% reduction in power consumption [3]. - Qualcomm is expected to unveil its Snapdragon 8 Gen4 SoC on October 22, which will utilize a new self-developed CPU architecture, promising significant performance improvements [3]. Operating Systems and Software Innovations - Huawei's HarmonyOS NEXT began public testing on October 8, with commercial deployment expected in Q4, integrating advanced AI functionalities [4]. - Vivo's OriginOS 5 was announced on October 10, enhancing user interaction through AI features [5]. - OPPO is set to release ColorOS 15 on October 17, focusing on AI technologies and user experience improvements [5]. New Product Launches - A series of flagship smartphones from various manufacturers are scheduled for release in Q4, including models from OPPO, Vivo, Honor, and Xiaomi, which are expected to feature upgraded hardware and AI capabilities [6]. - The report anticipates that the release of these new devices, combined with promotional activities like Double Eleven, will stimulate demand and sales recovery in the Android smartphone market [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the Android supply chain, including brands and manufacturers such as Xiaomi, Transsion Holdings, and various component suppliers, as they are expected to benefit from the upcoming product launches and market recovery [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utilities sector [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the intensified debt resolution policies are expected to significantly benefit environmental companies [5][48] - The government is set to implement the largest debt resolution measure in recent years, which will alleviate pressure on local governments and support economic development [48] Summary by Sections Market Review - The public utilities sector index fell by 4.8% this week, while the environmental sector index decreased by 3.8% [4][24] - In the environmental sector, the water sector dropped by 4.1%, while air pollution control fell by 6.2% [26] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Water Resources is advancing major national water network projects, emphasizing the need for investment in water resource management and ecological restoration [4] - The National Energy Administration reported strong growth in renewable energy installations and generation, highlighting the importance of addressing grid connection and consumption issues [4][62] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on energy-saving and environmental protection sectors, with specific companies highlighted for investment opportunities, including Zhongyuan Environmental Protection and Beijiete [5][6] - The report suggests that companies like Sanxia Energy and Longyuan Power are key players in the renewable energy sector [4][6] Company Announcements - The report notes that environmental companies are facing significant accounts receivable issues, with a substantial portion of debts owed by government entities [49][52] - Companies such as Wangneng Environment and Lihua Technology are actively engaging in share repurchase plans to stabilize their stock prices [67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating that there is still room for valuation recovery [2]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is experiencing a tug-of-war between sentiment and fundamentals, with ongoing valuation repair potential [2]. - The report highlights various segments within the industry, including beer, dining supply chain, snacks, dairy products, and condiments, each with specific investment recommendations based on their performance and market conditions [5][11][12][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The liquor sector is currently in a phase where sentiment and fundamentals are in conflict, with an 8.21% decline in the liquor sector, which is greater than the 4.95% drop in the CSI 300 index [11]. - The beer sector is expected to maintain its overall upgrade and efficiency improvement trend, with a focus on high-end product development due to the recovery of dining and nightlife consumption scenarios [11]. 2. Market Review - The food and beverage sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 4.21 percentage points, with a 7.47% decline during the trading days from October 8 to October 11 [15]. - Most sub-sectors within the food and beverage industry showed a downward trend, with notable declines in health products (-9.71%), beer (-8.67%), and liquor (-8.21%) [17]. 3. Key Data Tracking - As of October 11, the overall valuation of the food and beverage sector stands at 21.23x, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 12.92x [20]. - The report tracks various price data, including liquor prices, which show stability in high-end liquor prices, while beer production has seen a year-on-year decrease of 10% [24][11]. 4. Company Announcements - Companies such as Eastroc Beverage and Yili have reported significant earnings growth, with Eastroc expecting a year-on-year increase of 57.04% to 64.89% in net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 [54]. - The report also notes various corporate actions, including share buybacks and management changes across several companies in the sector [54]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies within various segments, such as Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye in the liquor sector, Qingdao Beer and Chongqing Beer in the beer sector, and Yili and Mengniu in the dairy sector [14]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on resilient companies with strong fundamentals and those expected to benefit from improving demand conditions [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this area [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the coal sector is experiencing a resonance between policy support and fundamental market conditions, which enhances the attractiveness of investments in this sector [1]. - It highlights that coal prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, driven by factors such as reduced hydropower output and seasonal demand increases in the non-electric sector [1][2]. - The report also notes that the overall coal production in China has slightly decreased, which may provide strong support for prices in the medium to long term [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The coal mining sector has underperformed the broader market, with a reported decline of 5.7% compared to a 3.6% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [50]. Price Analysis - As of October 11, 2024, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is 852 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 1.73% week-on-week [11]. - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port has risen to 2010 CNY/ton, an increase of 7.49% [14]. - The report indicates a divergence in coal prices, with thermal coal prices declining while coking coal prices are on the rise [11][23]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The report notes a decrease in railway coal input to Qinhuangdao Port, with a reduction of 20.65% week-on-week [29]. - The total inventory at Qinhuangdao Port has decreased by 5.32%, indicating a tightening supply [34]. - The report also highlights that the operating rates of coking enterprises have improved, suggesting a recovery in demand for coking coal [29]. International Market Insights - The report mentions that international coal prices are showing mixed trends, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal price at 90.5 USD/ton, reflecting a 3.43% increase [41]. - The price gap between domestic and international coal has widened, with the domestic thermal coal price gap at 69.19 CNY/ton [47]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend yields, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, and suggests monitoring companies like Yancoal and Huainan Mining for potential investment opportunities [4].