[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 食品饮料 2024 年 10 月 07 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|-------|------------------|-------|----------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 政策强刺激下信心回升，乐观看待本 | | 食品饮料 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 优于大市 | | | 轮行情 | | | | | | | 食品饮料行业周报 | | 20240923-20240930 | 证券分析师 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 食品饮料 沪深300 -43% 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《食品饮料行业周报 20240916- 20240920-茅台注销式回 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the fourth quarter [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights four main investment themes for the pharmaceutical sector: 1) rebound of undervalued blue-chip stocks and benefiting Hong Kong stocks, 2) focus on companies with positive short-term changes and a price-to-book (PB) ratio less than 1, 3) companies with solid fundamentals supporting long-term growth, and 4) companies expected to have high earnings growth in the second half of 2024 [2][5][6]. Summary by Sections Main Investment Themes - **Theme 1: Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks and Benefiting Hong Kong Stocks** - The market sentiment has quickly recovered following central bank policies and political meetings, leading to a rebound in the pharmaceutical sector. Key focus areas include undervalued blue-chip stocks and industry leaders, as well as quality Hong Kong consumer and innovative companies benefiting from U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [5][6]. - **Theme 2: Companies with Positive Short-Term Changes and PB < 1** - The report suggests focusing on companies with positive changes, particularly those with a PB ratio less than 1, especially state-owned enterprises. Companies expected to benefit from short-term pharmaceutical policies, mergers, and buybacks are highlighted [6][7]. - **Theme 3: Companies with Solid Fundamentals for Long-Term Growth** - Emphasis is placed on companies with strong fundamentals and logical business models, as these are expected to provide long-term valuation support. Recommended companies include those in the pharmaceutical sector with stable fundamentals [7][8]. - **Theme 4: Companies with High Earnings Growth Expectations for 2024H2** - The report advises focusing on companies expected to exceed market earnings expectations in the second half of 2024 and into 2025, indicating significant growth potential [8]. Market Performance Review - From September 23 to September 30, 2024, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index rose by 28.1%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.6%. However, year-to-date, the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Index has declined by 7.2%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 24.3% [8][10][13]. Notable Stocks - The report identifies several stocks to watch, including: - **Undervalued Blue-Chip Stocks**: Aier Eye Hospital, Tongce Medical, Huaxia Eye Hospital, and others [6]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: Jinxin Fertility, Haijia Medical, etc. [6]. - **Strong Fundamentals**: Heng Rui Medicine, Innovent Biologics, and others [7]. Sector Valuation - As of September 30, 2024, the overall valuation of the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Sector is 32.4, reflecting a 7.2 increase since the beginning of the year, ranking it 9th among Shenwan's first-level classifications [11]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the Shenwan Pharmaceutical Sector in the past two weeks was 555.3 billion, accounting for 7.0% of the total A-share trading volume, with a significant increase of 250% compared to the previous trading period [12]. Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 15.9% in the week from September 30 to October 4, outperforming the Hang Seng Index by 5.7% [17]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed overview of the current state and future outlook of the pharmaceutical industry, highlighting key investment opportunities and market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor sector in the Hong Kong market [2][19]. Core Insights - The semiconductor sector has shown significant performance, with notable stock price increases for companies such as Hongguang Semiconductor (315.58%), Jingyang Group (115.22%), and others, indicating strong market interest and potential growth [5][9][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the semiconductor sector's performance post-holiday, suggesting a continued focus on this area for investment opportunities [5][6]. Market Performance Summary - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index closed at 22,736.87, up 10.20%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 17.38% to 5,227.13. The semiconductor stocks led the gains, with significant increases in their share prices [5][9][12]. - In the U.S. market, the Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 0.10%, and other major indices showed modest gains, indicating a relatively stable performance compared to the Hong Kong market [5][12]. Key Events Recap - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang reported strong demand for the Blackwell chip, contributing to a 2.90% increase in NVIDIA's stock price for the week [6]. - Tesla announced a recall of over 27,000 electric pickups due to a rearview camera issue, which impacted its stock price negatively, resulting in a 3.99% decline for the week [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor companies such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Changdian Technology, as well as IC design firms like Zhaoxin and Aiwai Electronics, indicating a diversified approach to investment within the semiconductor sector [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a shift with the U.S. proposing to ban connected vehicles using Chinese software and hardware, which may impact supply chains and market dynamics [10] - Geely is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia by establishing a joint venture assembly plant in Vietnam with an investment of approximately $168 million, aiming for an initial production capacity of 75,000 vehicles per year [11] - The report highlights a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales, with retail sales reaching 1.027 million units in August, marking a 17% month-on-month growth and a penetration rate exceeding 50% for two consecutive months [10] Summary by Sections Industry Key News - The U.S. plans to prohibit the use of Chinese software and hardware in connected and autonomous vehicles, with Canada considering similar measures [10] - A new $1 billion fund has been established in the U.S. to assist automotive parts suppliers in transitioning to electric vehicle production [10] - The automotive market has faced cumulative retail losses of 138 billion yuan due to ongoing price wars, with a reported discount rate of 17.4% in August [11] Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector underperformed the broader market, with the SW passenger vehicle index rising by 11.72% and the commercial vehicle index by 8.37% [5] - The report suggests that major automakers are accelerating their electric and intelligent vehicle strategies, supported by favorable policies that are expected to sustain industry growth [5] New Vehicle Releases - New models launched include the Zhijie R7, LYNK Z10, and Avita 07, with prices ranging from 21.99 to 33.98 million yuan for the R7 [21] - The report details various new energy and hybrid models introduced by different manufacturers, indicating a trend towards more environmentally friendly vehicles [21] Upstream Data Tracking - The report notes fluctuations in raw material prices, including a decrease in steel and aluminum prices since March 2024, while natural rubber prices continue to rise [8][24]

Market Performance - As of September 27, 2024, the Hong Kong stock market led global markets with the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Index rising by 25.1% and 14.7% respectively[1] - Other Asia-Pacific markets also performed well, with India's SENSEX30 and Japan's Nikkei 225 both increasing by over 3%[1] - The US stock indices maintained high levels, with gains ranging from 1.5% to 2.5%, while European markets showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 rising by 3.0% and 2.1% respectively, and the UK's FTSE 100 declining by 0.7%[1] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve opened a rate cut channel with a 50 basis point reduction in September, but the future path remains uncertain[1] - The US economy is currently in a "Goldilocks" phase, with September's Markit Services PMI at 55.4, above the expected 55.2, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[1] - Initial jobless claims were reported at 218,000, lower than expected, and the core PCE year-on-year growth for August was 2.7%, matching expectations and slightly above the previous value of 2.6%[1] Investment Strategy - In the context of weakening rate cut expectations and significant domestic policy support, it is recommended to focus on Hong Kong stocks and the Renminbi[2] - For Hong Kong stocks, high dividend sectors and flexible consumer internet sectors are suggested for investment[2] - US stocks are expected to maintain high-level fluctuations under the soft landing assumption, with a focus on defensive assets like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices[2] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could lead to tighter liquidity from central banks and impact equity market valuations[2] - A downturn in global economic conditions could negatively affect market performance[2] - Escalation of geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East or Ukraine, may heighten global risk aversion and lead to market volatility[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The report confirms that the fundamentals of the coal industry are at a bottom, with deepening dividend value expected in the future [1][6]. - The coal price is anticipated to stabilize at a high level after a rebound, with strong support expected at 850 RMB/ton, and a potential rise to over 1000 RMB/ton by 2025 [3][6]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report highlights that the coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with coal prices showing an upward trend. For instance, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price rose to 867 RMB/ton, a 0.12% increase week-on-week [5][63]. - The report notes that the coal sector's performance is bolstered by favorable government policies aimed at economic support [6]. Price Analysis - Thermal coal prices have shown resilience, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 price increasing by 0.12% to 867 RMB/ton, while the main焦煤 price at Jing Tang Port rose to 1780 RMB/ton, up 0.56% [5][18]. - The report indicates that the domestic and international coal price differentials are narrowing, with the thermal coal price differential at 26.95 RMB/ton and the main焦煤 price differential at 200.17 RMB/ton [6][60]. Supply and Demand - The report provides insights into supply dynamics, noting an increase in railway input to Qinhuangdao Port, which rose by 29.41% to 484,000 tons, and a significant increase in port throughput by 49.50% to 604,000 tons [35][41]. - The demand for coal is expected to improve, particularly in non-electric sectors, with the methanol and urea production rates remaining high at 87% and 86%, respectively [3][6]. Inventory Analysis - The report indicates a mixed inventory situation, with Qinhuangdao's coal inventory increasing by 8.69% to 5.63 million tons, while key power plant inventories showed a slight decrease [44][48]. - The steel industry also saw an increase in焦煤 and焦炭 inventories, with焦煤 inventory rising by 0.26% and焦炭 inventory increasing by 3.31% [48]. Policy Impact - The report discusses the impact of recent government policies aimed at supporting the coal sector, including a new stock repurchase financing tool to encourage companies to buy back shares, which is expected to enhance the investment value of coal stocks [4][6]. - The report emphasizes that the coal sector's dividend value is likely to be further highlighted due to these supportive policies [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the utility sector [3] Core Insights - The utility sector has shown significant growth, with the Shenwan (2021) utility industry index rising by 7.9% and the environmental industry index increasing by 12.7% [3][27] - The report highlights the ongoing expansion of the carbon market in China, with plans to include more participants and sectors [3][59] - Recommendations include focusing on energy-saving and environmental protection sectors, which are expected to maintain high growth [5] Market Performance - The utility sector's performance has been strong, with various sub-sectors such as energy conservation and environmental protection showing notable increases in stock prices [3][29] - Specific sub-sectors like air pollution control and water treatment have seen significant gains, with air pollution control rising by 24.9% [3][29] Industry Dynamics - The National Energy Administration reported a cumulative installed power generation capacity of approximately 3.13 billion kilowatts as of August, a year-on-year increase of 14.0% [55] - The report emphasizes the importance of the circular economy and resource recycling, with government initiatives supporting these areas [3][56] - The report also notes the increase in investment in power generation and grid projects, with a total investment of 497.6 billion yuan in power generation projects, up 5.1% year-on-year [55] Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Jiangsu New Energy, China Nuclear Power, and Huaneng International, among others [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in renewable energy, such as wind and solar power, which are expected to continue growing rapidly [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utilities sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The national carbon market in China has achieved a cumulative trading volume of over 470 million tons and a transaction value of 27.9 billion yuan, with carbon prices fluctuating around 90 yuan per ton [3][10]. - The International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation has released guidelines for the voluntary application of ISSB standards, encouraging companies to report sustainability progress to investors [3][12]. - The report highlights significant growth in renewable energy, with non-fossil energy generation accounting for 40% of total electricity consumption in August 2024, marking a 78.5% increase in installed capacity since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Hotspot Focus - **Domestic**: The cumulative trading volume of the national carbon market has reached 4.76 million tons, with a transaction value of 27.9 billion yuan. The carbon market is expected to expand its coverage and improve data quality [3][10]. - **International**: The ISSB standard guidelines aim to assist companies in voluntarily applying sustainability reporting standards, with major investors encouraging this practice [3][12]. 2. Policy Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has issued implementation opinions to promote high-level protection and accelerate development in central regions, focusing on green and low-carbon transformation [13][15]. 3. ESG Product Tracking - **Bonds**: As of September 27, 2024, China has issued 4,824 ESG bonds with a total scale of 13.70 trillion yuan, and 1,098 billion yuan was issued in the current month [33]. - **Public Funds**: There are 555 existing ESG products with a total net value of 516.3 billion yuan, with environmental protection products making up the largest share [37]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: There are 610 existing ESG products, with pure ESG products accounting for 55.74% of the total [40]. 4. ESG Expert Opinions - The President of Central University of Finance and Economics emphasized the importance of green finance in supporting low-carbon transformation and proposed several initiatives for integrating finance with sustainable development [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [3] Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by both external monetary easing and internal economic stimulus measures [3][6] Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have seen a slight increase, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot price for Au9999 closing at 597 CNY per gram, reflecting a weekly change of 1.5% [24] - COMEX gold futures closed at 2681 USD per ounce, with a weekly change of 1.3% [24] 2. Industrial Metals - Prices for industrial metals have generally risen, with SHFE copper prices increasing by 3.9% and LME copper prices by 4.9% [40][44] - The average processing fee for imported copper concentrate has risen to 7.5 USD per ton, indicating a positive outlook for copper and aluminum [7] 3. Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased by 1.3%, while tungsten prices have seen a slight decline [7][83] 4. Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have slightly increased, while cobalt prices remain stable [7] - Nickel prices have also seen a modest rise, with SHFE nickel prices up by 3.2% [74] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a comprehensive outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector, with specific recommendations for precious metals and industrial metals [7] - For precious metals, companies such as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold are recommended, while for industrial metals, companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum are highlighted [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The computer industry has experienced significant profit downgrades due to a slowdown in fiscal spending, with a notable decline in net profit for the first half of 2024 [4] - The industry is currently at a valuation bottom, with a cumulative decline of 28.88% from January 1 to September 23, 2024, making it one of the worst-performing sectors [4] - Recent monetary and fiscal policies are expected to support a rebound in the computer sector, with increased liquidity and government measures aimed at stabilizing the capital market [5] - The development of domestic innovation (信创) is gaining momentum, with clear policy support and significant potential for growth in the second half of the year [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer industry saw a net profit of 10.783 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decline of 33.40% [4] - The industry’s PE and PS ratios as of September 23, 2024, are 31.83 and 2.24, respectively, both at historical low percentiles [4] Policy Impact - The government has initiated measures such as issuing special bonds to stimulate demand in the domestic innovation sector, with a focus on increasing procurement from state-owned enterprises [5] - The central bank's recent announcements regarding liquidity support and measures to stabilize the stock market are expected to enhance investor confidence [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current stock prices in the computer sector are at historical lows, indicating a potential for overall sector rebound [6]