Vanguard 7.38% 截 至12月31日止财政年度 22年历史 23年历史 24年预测 25年预测 26年预测 总营业收入（美元百万元） 116,609 134,902 159,010 179,865 200,584 变动 -1.12% 15.69% 17.87% 13.12% 11.52% GAAP净利润 23,200 39,098 51,558 60,147 68,584 摊薄每股盈利 8.6 14.9 19.8 23.4 26.9 变动 -37.65% 73.21% 33.34% 17.84% 15.18% 基于501.7美元的市盈率（估） 58.4 33.7 25.3 21.5 18.6 每股派息（美元） 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 股息现价比 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 来源：公司资料，第一上海预测 来源：彭博 季度业绩摘要：公司 24Q1 总收入 364.6 亿美元，同比增长 27.3%， 低于公司上季度指引中值的 367.5 亿美元，但高于彭博一致预期的 361.3 亿美元。1）Family of Apps 收入 360.2 亿美元，其中广告 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tesla (TSLA) [1]. Core Insights - Tesla is expanding its Texas factory to accommodate a new AI computing cluster, aiming for a 100 MW capacity by August 2024, which may increase to over 500 MW in the future [1]. - The next-generation autonomous driving computer, referred to as AI5, is expected to be ten times more powerful than the current HW4 and will be implemented in vehicles by the second half of 2025 [1]. - Tesla's upcoming Master Plan 4 is anticipated to play a significant role in the company's strategic direction, following the impactful Master Plan 3 [1]. Summary by Sections Company Developments - Elon Musk revealed plans for a new AI computing cluster in Texas, with an initial target of 100 MW by August 2024, potentially increasing to over 500 MW in 18 months [1]. - The AI5 hardware, which will replace the current HW4, is set to be introduced in late 2025, enhancing Tesla's autonomous driving capabilities [1]. Market Activity - Tesla has reduced the prices of its Model 3 vehicles in Canada, with the RWD model now priced at 49,990 CAD, making it eligible for government rebates [2]. - The Model 3 Long Range has also seen a price drop to 59,990 CAD, while the new Model 3 Performance remains unchanged at 69,990 CAD [2]. Supply Chain Agreements - Tesla signed a lithium supply agreement with a subsidiary of China's Yahua Group, ensuring the procurement of lithium carbonate and hydroxide from 2025 to 2027, with a contract value of 5.6 billion RMB [3]. - This agreement is expected to support production at Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory [4]. Sales Performance - In the week of June 10 to June 16, 2024, Tesla's domestic insurance registrations were approximately 11,700 vehicles, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter decline of about 5% and a year-over-year decline of about 19% [4].

招金矿业(1818) 首发报告 买入 2024 年 6 月 21 日 黄金行业优质高成长公司,增长潜力巨大,目标价 17.46 港元 业绩高速增长:公司 2023 年全年实现销售收入 84.24 亿人民币 (下同),较去年增长 6.82%;实现毛利 33.70 亿,同比增长 26.90%;毛利率为 40.1%,同比增长 6.33 个百分点;实现归母净 利润 6.86 亿元,同比增长 70.77%,业绩实现大幅增长。2023 年 全年公司完成黄金产量 24.68 吨,同比下滑 9.75%;其中实现矿 产金 17.58 吨,同比下降 8.63%,冶炼加工金为 7.11 吨,同比下 滑 12.39%。矿产金产量下滑主要是因为公司买断金减少所导致。 海域金矿未来可期:海域金矿从 2019 年 7 月取得采矿许可证后 正式开始建设,截至目前,海域金矿项目仍处于项目建设阶段, 按照项目规划,海域金矿将于 2025 年实现初步建成。该项目采 用地下开采,拟采用粗碎-半自磨+顽石破碎-浮选流程,选矿回 收率预计可以达到 97%,采选规模为 396 万吨矿石/年,项目总投 资约为 60 亿元人民币。在整体投产达产后,预计海域金 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年6月17日 星期一 【公司评论】 特斯拉（TSLA）：周报 李京霖 852-25321957 特斯拉2024股东大会 Jinglin.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 当地时间2024 年 6 月 13 日在德州工厂举行了特斯拉2024 年年度股东大会。 李倩 股东们对12项提案进行了投票表决，其中最受瞩目的两项提案是马斯克的薪酬方 852-25321539 案，以及将特斯拉的注册地从特拉华州迁至德克萨斯州的提案，投票结果为均获 Chuck.li@firstshanghai.com.hk 通过。 陈晓霞 然后马斯克对公司的多个方面进展进行了分享，主要包括： 852-25321956 xx.chen@firstshanghai.com.hk 机器人：马斯克相信机器人Optimus将为公司带来巨大的利润，光是Optimus就 能带来20万亿美元的市值。承诺特斯拉将在2025年开始“限量生产”擎天柱， 行业 汽车 并于明年在工厂内测试机器人。他预测明年将有1,000多个或数千个擎天柱机器 股价 178.01 ...

宏观经济评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 第一上海 宏观经济评论 FOMC 成员认为今年年底联邦基金利率中位数应该预期在 5.1%，2025 底是 4.1%， 2026 年底为 3.1%。 我们过去以来反复强调的一点，苹果对于这个 AI 是受益的，而且是非常受益的， 因为苹果是可以在它的平台上像挑选搜索引擎一样，可以自由的挑选所有的 AI 引 擎。Open AI 或是 Google 的 German，还有 Anthropic 等等，都是候选对象，让他 们进行一个赛马。并且通过跟苹果的合作，苹果可以最大限度地满足它的用户的需 求，并且从中收取费用。所以市场对苹果的公布的计划是非常满意的，后续股价也 有一个非常靓丽的表现，这个也是符合我们预期的，我们继续坚定长期看好苹果。 微软 第一上海 宏观经济评论 Google 和微软，作为没有自己硬件平台的这种纯软件公司，长期看来这个风险是 不小的，抗风险能力与软硬件一体的公司难以相提并论。 现在台积电的订单 3 纳米的产能已经被包圆了，订单已经排满到 2026 年；5 纳米 节点的产能利用率也是相当高的，这个价格也都面临向上 ...

公司评论 第一上海研究部 research@firstshanghai.com.hk 2024年6月19日 星期三 【公司评论】 金煊 嘉楠科技（CAN.US，未评级）：公司近期业绩及经营摘要 852-25321539 FY24Q1 财务表现： Lexy.jin@firstshanghai.com.hk 公司总收入为 3509 万美元，超出此前预期值 3300 万美元 6%。公司主要收入来源 为销售矿机的收入，为 2340 万美元，FY23Q4 为 4910 万美元，同比-52%；挖矿收 行业 TMT 入为1046万美元，FY23Q4为370美元，环比增长182.1%。公司净亏损为3940万 股价 1.22美元 美元，环比收窄-71.7%。此外，公司通过挖矿自持1057枚比特币，为历史新高。 矿机销售业务： 市值 3.56亿美元 FY24Q1 公司销售了 340 万 Thash/s 算力，目前公司 A14 系列矿机持续销售中，将 已发行股本 2.86亿股 于本年度 Q2、Q3 集中交付。近期推出的最新的阿瓦降 A1566，单机平均算力达到 52周高/低 3.5美元/0.75美元 185 TH/s,能耗为18. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to BYD Electronics with a target price of HKD 54, indicating a potential upside of 36% from the current stock price of HKD 39.55 [2][3]. Core Insights - BYD Electronics reported a 38.3% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2024, reaching RMB 36.5 billion, with a net profit growth of 33% [2]. - The acquisition of Jabil's manufacturing operations in Chengdu and Wuxi for RMB 15.8 billion is expected to enhance operational capabilities and contribute positively to net profit despite incurring financial costs in the short term [2]. - The automotive electronics segment is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenue growth of 50% in 2024, driven by high-value new products [2]. - The company is expanding its business boundaries into AI servers, home energy storage, smart home devices, gaming hardware, and drones, indicating a diversification strategy [2]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2022, BYD Electronics reported total revenue of RMB 107.19 billion, with a net profit of RMB 1.86 billion [4]. - Revenue is forecasted to grow to RMB 162.41 billion in 2024, with a net profit of RMB 5 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 25% [4]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 8.3% in 2024, with net profit margins improving to 3.08% [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from RMB 1.79 in 2023 to RMB 2.22 in 2024, representing a growth of 23.8% [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the company [1] Core Insights - Shanghai Industrial Holdings (the company) has four core business segments: infrastructure and environmental protection, healthcare, real estate, and consumer products, which are stable and solid [1] - The company has shown a steady growth in revenue and net profit over the years, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% and 5.4% respectively [2] - The company is actively expanding its business through acquisitions and new projects, which are expected to contribute to future profitability [6] Business Overview - **Infrastructure and Environmental Protection**: This segment includes toll roads, bridges, water services, and clean energy. It accounted for 31.8% of total revenue and 64.2% of net profit in 2023 [1] - **Healthcare**: The company holds a 50% stake in Shanghai Shanshi Yangtze River Delta Ecological Development Co., which acquired a 40% stake in Shanghai Pharmaceuticals. This segment contributed 2.2% to net profit in 2023 [1] - **Real Estate**: This segment includes property development and management, contributing 58.4% to total revenue and 23.2% to net profit in 2023 [1] - **Consumer Products**: This segment includes Nanyang Tobacco and Yongfa Printing, contributing 9.8% to total revenue and 10.4% to net profit in 2023 [1] Financial Performance - In the fiscal year 2023, the company achieved revenue of 32.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, and net profit of 3.61 billion RMB, up 42.5% year-on-year [2] - The company maintains a healthy financial structure with a debt-to-asset ratio of 56.8% and a stable dividend payout ratio around 40% [4] - The company has a cash balance of approximately 25 billion HKD, representing about 14% of total assets [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of its business post-pandemic, with significant growth in its real estate segment and new projects in wastewater treatment and tobacco production [6] - The diversified business model and strong cash flow provide resilience against economic cycles, with a projected dividend yield of 8% [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 3.25, indicating a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 2.81 [1]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a gradual increase in the proportion of innovative drugs, which will likely enhance revenue growth in the future. The innovative drug revenue grew by 13.3% year-on-year to HKD 9.89 billion, accounting for 37.8% of total revenue [1]. - The company’s adjusted net profit for 2023 is projected to increase by 1.5% to HKD 2.59 billion, despite a decline in net profit attributable to shareholders by 8.3% to HKD 2.33 billion [1]. - The company has a robust pipeline of innovative products, with several expected to launch in the coming years, which will contribute to revenue growth [1]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported total revenue of HKD 26.2 billion, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year. The revenue breakdown includes oncology drugs (33.6%), liver disease (14.6%), respiratory (11.3%), and others [1][2]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.8 percentage points to 81.0%, while R&D expenses amounted to HKD 4.7 billion, representing 18% of total revenue [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 3% year-on-year to HKD 6.07 billion, with cash reserves reaching HKD 21.1 billion, including net cash of HKD 9.27 billion [1]. Product Pipeline - The company’s innovative product pipeline includes several key drugs, with expected launches in 2024 and 2025, such as Bemarituzumab and TQB3616, which are anticipated to significantly impact revenue [1]. - The company’s subsidiary, invoX, has shown promising results with its FS222 product, indicating strong potential for future development [1]. Market Position - The company has a market capitalization of HKD 52.8 billion, with a P/E ratio of 20.7 for 2024, reflecting its growth potential in the pharmaceutical industry [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 29.73, which is equivalent to 10.5 times the forecasted earnings per share for 2024 [4][5]. Core Insights - Despite intense industry competition, the company is expected to outperform the industry due to its stable pricing strategy, continuous product upgrades, and increased penetration of high-end products [4][5]. - The company reported a revenue growth of 5.1% to HKD 23.77 billion in 2023, driven by a 12.2% increase in tissue paper sales and a 17.7% growth in e-commerce channels [3][4]. - The gross profit margin decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 33.7% due to rising raw material costs and increased promotional expenses [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a net profit of HKD 2.80 billion, representing a 45.5% increase compared to the previous year [5][6]. - The operating profit rose by 38.6% to HKD 3.98 billion, with a decrease in operating expense ratio by 0.3 percentage points to 21.3% [3][5]. - The company maintained a robust balance sheet with net cash of approximately HKD 5.39 billion, an increase of HKD 0.86 billion from the previous year [3][4]. Business Segments - Tissue paper business grew by 12.2% to HKD 13.75 billion, benefiting from a nationwide sales network and strong growth in high-end products [4][5]. - Sanitary napkin sales increased by 0.4% to HKD 6.18 billion, with gross margin improving from 61.8% in the first half to 66% in the second half [4][5]. - The adult diaper segment saw a 4.3% growth to HKD 1.25 billion, with gross margin rising from 36% to 40% due to lower raw material prices [4][5]. Future Outlook - For 2024, the company anticipates low single-digit revenue growth in tissue paper, sanitary napkins, and adult diapers, despite ongoing competitive pressures in the personal care industry [4][5]. - The report highlights that the company’s stable pricing strategy and product upgrades are expected to help it outperform the industry amid challenging market conditions [4][5].