公 司 研 究 皖通高速（600012.SH）：现金收购 优质路产，有望增厚利润 事件：公司公告拟以自有/自筹资金收购安徽省交通控股集团（公司实控人）持 有的阜周高速和泗许高速 100%股权，资产交易对价为人民币 47.7 亿元。本 次交易构成关联交易。 阜周高速和泗许高速地理区位较好，且剩余收费年限较长：阜周高速是国家重 点干线济广高速（G35）在安徽境内的组成部分，设计标准双向四车道，收费 里程 83.57 公里，收费到期日为 2039 年 12 月 26 日，目前收费年限剩余 15 年。泗许高速是国家重点干线盐洛高速（G1516）在安徽境内的组成部分，设 计标准双向四车道，收费里程 52.20 公里，收费到期日为 2042 年 12 月 23 日， 目前收费年限剩余约 18 年。收购资产均系国高网和安徽省"五纵十横"高速 公路网络中的重要组成部分，区位优秀，且剩余收费年限较长。 收购资产的创收能力较为优秀：阜周高速 2023 年实现营收 4.32 亿元，24 年 1-10 月营收 3.20 亿元，对应到 23 年和 24 年 1-10 月的单公里日均收入（以 实际收费天数计算）分别约 1.50 万元和 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 我们对美联储的预期略有收窄。我们对美联储 2025 年降息次数的预期从 2 次略收窄至 1~2 次，同时认识到存在不降息的概率。 资本市场方面，美国十年期国债利率下限 3.7~3.85%，上限 4.75~5%。我们的 模型并不支持美十债再次突破 5%。极端情况下，若美十债有效 5%，则美股可 能再次迎来震荡。 美股处于泡沫，维持中性略偏积极。银行信贷有所放松，实体经济投资止跌 反弹，叠加 AI 技术突破，股市短期风险不大。但类似 1997-2000 年的长期泡 沫再次出现，本次泡沫尚未达到 2000 年水平。历次长期趋势的泡沫湮灭均与 货币政策收紧有关。鉴于美联储尚未进入加息通道，我们在 2023 年年底对长 期趋势的看法从中性谨慎转为中性，中性是对泡沫的警惕，去掉谨慎是目前 尚没有货币政策导致的流动性问题。目前，美国国债抵押市场利率波动正常， 联邦隔夜拆借利率非常平稳，表明市场短期资金流动性充裕。叠加特朗普减 税预期，我们对美股的态度维持中性略偏积极。2024 年 12 月点阵图的变动 符合我们的预期，美股回调属于正常范围内的表现，当前标普 500 超出长期 趋势 31%。建 ...

股票家数 65 1.43% 行业市值(亿元) 39295.67 4.14% 流通市值(亿元) 34103.31 4.45% 行业平均市盈率 11.88 / 行 业 研 究 2025 年 1 月 3 日 看好/维持 煤炭 行业报告 行业基本资料 占比% 行业指数走势图 分析师：莫文娟 010-66555574 mowj@dxzq.net.cn 执业证书编号： S1480524070001 煤炭行业：动力煤价格下跌，下游 库存减少 国内动力煤价格继续下跌，国外动力煤价格下跌。截至 12 月 20 日，国内秦皇 岛动力煤山西优混 5500 平仓价格 771 元/吨，环比上月跌 7.44%；国际上澳大 利亚、欧洲、南非动力煤价格月环比均下跌：澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港 NEWC 动 力煤离岸价格 130.00 美元/吨，环比上月下跌 7.14%；南非理查德 RB 动力煤 离岸价格 107.00 美元/吨，环比上月下跌 4.46%；欧洲三港 DES ARA 动力煤 离岸价格 111.00 美元/吨，环比上月下跌 9.76%。 陕晋蒙三省国有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量环比均下降，动力煤月度进口量环比上 涨。11 月国有重点煤矿煤炭月度 ...

Economic Overview - The economic divergence between Europe and the U.S. is evident, with European countries facing stagnation while the U.S. economy remains resilient, benefiting dollar assets[6][14]. - By Q3 2024, GDP levels in Germany, France, the UK, and Japan are projected to exceed 1-3.5% above 2019 averages, indicating a prolonged stagnation in Europe[14]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in 2025 has narrowed to 1-2 times, with a possibility of no rate cuts at all[2]. - The current model suggests that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will remain between 3.7-3.85% and not exceed 5%[8]. Market Conditions - The U.S. stock market is viewed as slightly positive, with the S&P 500 currently exceeding its long-term trend by 31%[2]. - The financial environment is loosening, with banks not tightening loan standards for medium and large enterprises, which supports investment growth[39]. Inflation and Consumer Behavior - Inflation risks are rising, influenced by Trump's tax and tariff policies, but the ultimate trajectory will depend on various factors, including monetary policy[7][63]. - The household debt burden remains low, with the debt repayment ratio at a historical low of 5.78% as of Q2 2024, indicating strong consumer spending potential[9][46]. Investment Recommendations - It is advised to moderately increase allocation to short-term bonds and maintain long positions in U.S. equities while closely monitoring liquidity conditions[9][66]. - The anticipated tax cuts and regulatory relaxations under Trump could further stimulate investment in cyclical industries[52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the lithium battery industry, with an investment rating of "Buy" for 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The lithium battery sector is expected to recover in 2025, driven by a stabilization of fundamentals and accelerated application of new technologies [3][41]. - The profitability of the battery segment is projected to continue its upward trend, with leading companies benefiting from differentiated products and overseas business growth [2][39]. - The report highlights the ongoing industrialization of solid-state batteries and the increasing demand for fast-charging technologies as key growth drivers for the sector [11][12]. Summary by Sections Battery Segment - The battery segment is characterized by strong bargaining power due to high customization demands, leading to stable profitability. The segment is expected to maintain a recovery trend in profitability through 2025 [2][39]. - Leading companies like CATL and Guoxuan High-Tech are anticipated to benefit significantly from their differentiated product offerings and overseas market expansions [2][39]. Material Segment - Despite some companies facing profit margin declines, the concentration in the lithium battery materials sector is expected to increase, leading to a potential recovery in profit levels [4]. - The report identifies key beneficiaries in the material segment, including companies like Zhongwei and Shengtai Technology, which are positioned to gain from ongoing product iterations and cost reductions [4][12]. New Technologies - The report emphasizes the rapid industrialization of solid-state batteries, which are expected to replace existing high-end applications in the medium to long term. Companies with advanced solid-state technology, such as Guoxuan High-Tech and CATL, are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [4][11]. - The demand for fast-charging capabilities is driving material upgrades, with companies like Xinde New Materials and Tiannai Technology positioned to benefit from innovations in conductive agents and lithium salts [12][29]. Market Outlook - The global power battery installation scale is projected to reach approximately 993 to 1,053 GWh in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14% to 20% [29][30]. - The report notes that the lithium carbonate and cathode material prices are expected to remain stable at low levels through 2025, with limited potential for reversal [18][29].

Group 1: Securities Industry Outlook - The report highlights that the securities industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and favorable policies in 2025, with a focus on performance improvement and valuation recovery [2][5][45] - It notes that the central political bureau and economic work conference have introduced several positive policies, including more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which are expected to stabilize the stock and real estate markets [2][5] - The report anticipates that the securities industry will see a significant increase in trading volume, with daily average trading volume reaching 20,150 billion since September 24, compared to 5,973 billion in August and 7,972 billion in September [2][5] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for head institutions in the securities industry to innovate and develop investment opportunities in the medium to long term, particularly focusing on value stocks that are currently undervalued [6][45] - It suggests that the integration frequency and intensity within the securities industry are expected to increase in 2024, with a trend likely to continue into 2025, driven by top-down initiatives [5][6] - The report highlights the growing importance of ETFs in wealth management and investment strategies, indicating that ETFs will play a crucial role in the investment landscape [2][6] Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The report indicates that the current regulatory environment remains stringent, with no significant changes expected in the short term, which may impact the growth of the securities industry [2][5] - It mentions that the regulatory focus will likely remain on optimizing the capital market environment and standardizing the behavior of various participants [2][5] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The report notes that the market's trading enthusiasm has been significantly stimulated by the regulatory authorities' positive statements since September 24, leading to a stable high trading volume [2][5] - It also points out that the market's valuation has seen a significant recovery, with the current valuation at 1.59 times PB, which is at the 40.50% percentile of historical valuations, indicating more upside potential [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, with an investment rating of "Buy" for 2024 [17][40]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to benefit from consumption growth and cyclical changes, with a focus on the recovery of demand and supply dynamics in the livestock sector [12][36]. - The report highlights the importance of cost management for pig farming enterprises, indicating that those with cost advantages are likely to achieve moderate expansion while underperforming capacities will be eliminated [11][67]. - The report emphasizes the potential for gene-modified seeds and the restructuring of the agricultural industry due to trade tensions between China and the U.S., which may create favorable conditions for certain agricultural sectors [4][19]. Summary by Sections Main Line One: Focus on the Pig Farming Industry - The pig farming industry is experiencing a structural change post-African swine fever, with increased scale and a reduction in price volatility. The average price of live pigs is projected to be between 15-16 yuan/kg in 2025, down from 2024 but still within a profitable range [11][67]. - The report suggests that the supply of breeding sows will maintain a slow recovery, with the number of breeding sows reaching approximately 40.73 million by October 2024, a slight increase from earlier in the year [7][70]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Tian Kang Biological, which are expected to benefit from their cost advantages [11][40]. Main Line Two: Consumption Improvement Expectations - The report anticipates a rebound in meat consumption driven by policy incentives, particularly in the poultry and aquaculture sectors, which are expected to show high elasticity in response to improving consumer demand [10][31]. - The poultry industry, particularly the white feather chicken segment, is expected to recover due to structural shortages and improved profitability, while yellow chicken profitability is also projected to remain stable [18][31]. Main Line Three: Trade Tensions and Agricultural Sector Opportunities - The report notes that U.S.-China trade tensions may lead to agricultural products being used as a countermeasure, which could impact prices and highlight the importance of food security strategies [4][19]. - The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is expected to reshape the competitive landscape of the seed industry, with leading companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech being highlighted for their early investments in this area [4][19]. Main Line Four: Growth in Pet Consumption - The pet food market is experiencing robust growth, with domestic brands gaining market share and aligning with health and premiumization trends. Companies such as Zhongchong Co. and Petty Co. are recommended for their strong positioning in this sector [19][19]. - The pet healthcare segment is also expected to see growth, with domestic products gradually replacing imports, providing a second growth curve for companies involved in pet healthcare [19][19].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate industry, particularly focusing on core cities where the market is expected to stabilize and recover first [85] Core Views - The real estate market is expected to stabilize and recover, with core cities leading the way due to stronger demand and policy support [85] - The report predicts a continued decline in housing sales and prices, but at a slower pace, with sales area and prices expected to drop by 13.5% and 5.7% respectively in 2024 [3] - New housing starts are projected to decrease by 18.8% in 2025, reflecting a cautious approach by developers in response to market conditions [5] - The report highlights the resilience of housing prices in higher-tier cities, with first-tier cities expected to see a stabilization in prices due to strong demand and limited supply [16] Sales and Market Trends - The report forecasts a 11.3% decline in housing sales revenue in 2025, with sales area expected to drop by 8.1% [80] - Housing prices in 70 major cities have fallen significantly since their peak, with new home prices down by 9.6% and second-hand home prices down by 16.1% as of November 2024 [69] - The report notes that higher-tier cities have shown greater resilience in housing prices, with first-tier cities experiencing smaller declines and shorter durations of price drops compared to lower-tier cities [73] Construction and Investment - Housing completions are expected to decrease by 10.7% in 2025, with a significant backlog of projects due to the "guaranteed delivery" policy [47] - Construction area is projected to decline by 9.4% in 2025, reflecting a slowdown in new projects and a focus on completing existing ones [53] - Real estate development investment is forecasted to drop by 11.9% in 2025, driven by reduced land purchases and lower construction intensity [59] Policy and Strategy - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support in stabilizing the market, with central authorities showing a strong commitment to maintaining market stability [28] - Investment strategies focus on high-quality developers with a strong presence in core cities, such as Poly Development, China Merchants Shekou, and China Resources Land [22] Urban Tier Analysis - First-tier cities are expected to see a faster recovery in housing prices due to strong demand and limited supply, with second-hand home prices likely to stabilize before new home prices [16] - Second-tier cities show a mixed performance, with cities like Hangzhou, Chengdu, and Xi'an leading in price resilience due to strong population inflows and economic growth [16] - Third-tier cities face significant challenges, with weak demand and prolonged inventory pressure, although further price declines are expected to be limited [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for several companies, including Kingsoft (金山办公), Foxit Software (福昕软件), Zhongke Shuguang (中科曙光), and others, indicating a positive outlook for the computer industry in 2025 [2][30]. Core Insights - The investment strategy focuses on three main lines: the leaders in various segments of the domestic IT innovation (信创) ecosystem, companies with urgent self-controllable demands, and key participants in the Huawei supply chain [1][2]. - The AIGC (Artificial Intelligence Generated Content) industry is experiencing rapid growth, with IDC predicting a global AI industry scale of $623.3 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.5% [1][43]. - The report highlights structural opportunities in new productivity sectors, including intelligent driving, quantum computing, low-altitude economy, vehicle-road cloud integration, and data element markets [1][2][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Review - The computer sector's performance has been roughly in line with the CSI 300 index, with a significant rebound since September 2024 [23][27]. - The report notes that large-cap companies have shown better performance, with a 71.43% increase in companies with a market cap over 50 billion [39] [12]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates improvements in market liquidity and risk appetite, with a focus on IT innovation and AI applications as key investment themes [18][27]. - It emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis, cost-effectiveness, and attractiveness in assessing the sustainability of market trends [18][14]. Investment Strategy - The report identifies key companies in the IT innovation sector, such as China Software (中国软件), Taiji (太极股份), and others, as potential investment targets [1][2]. - It also highlights the rapid development of intelligent driving technologies, with expectations for significant market growth by 2025 [47][52]. Other New Productivity Sectors - The intelligent driving sector is projected to see a penetration rate of 16% for L2+ driving functions by 2025, with a market size of 39.5 billion yuan [47]. - Quantum computing is still in its early stages, with significant potential for future applications [53]. - The low-altitude economy is expected to have high development certainty, with infrastructure construction leading the way [1][18].