Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next 6 months [4][34]. Core Insights - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have decreased, while U.S. natural gas futures prices have significantly increased. As of January 10, 2025, domestic LNG ex-factory prices were 4458 CNY/ton, down 2.07% month-on-month, and U.S. natural gas futures prices rose 24.84% month-on-month to 3.98 USD/MMBtu [2][9]. - In December, China's natural gas production fell by 23.12% month-on-month to 469,920 tons, while the apparent consumption also saw a slight decline [14]. - European natural gas imports increased by 1.78% month-on-month in December, but imports from Russia decreased by 7.29% [3][19]. Summary by Sections Natural Gas Prices - Domestic LNG ex-factory prices have shown a year-on-year decline of 20.02% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.07% [9]. - U.S. NYMEX natural gas futures prices have increased by 31.34% year-on-year and 24.84% month-on-month [9][10]. Supply and Demand - China's natural gas production in December was 469,920 tons, down 23.12% from the previous month [14]. - The apparent consumption of natural gas in China decreased slightly by 0.08% month-on-month [14]. Inventory Levels - U.S. natural gas inventory decreased by 9.58% month-on-month to 142,081 thousand barrels [15]. - European natural gas inventory fell by 17.18% month-on-month to 768.88 billion kWh [18]. Imports and Exports - European natural gas imports in December totaled 166,741.17 million cubic meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 1.78% [19]. - Imports of natural gas from Russia to Europe decreased by 7.29% month-on-month [19][22]. - China's natural gas imports rose by 7.06% month-on-month to 1,155.81 million tons [23][24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [9] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant advancements in high-speed optical module production capacity by Huagong Zhengyuan, with a monthly capacity of 400G optical modules reaching 400,000 to 450,000 units by Q3 2024, and plans to expand to 700,000 units [1] - Long光卫星 has successfully completed a 100Gbps laser communication test between satellite and ground, marking a major breakthrough in high-speed optical network transmission [21] - 中际旭创 is experiencing strong demand for 800G optical modules, with large-scale purchases from CSP customers and no notifications of order cancellations [22] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry consists of 117 listed companies, with a total market value of 46,182.63 billion and a circulating market value of 16,059.0 billion [5] - The average P/E ratio for the industry is 22.18 [5] Recent Market Trends - During the week of January 6-10, 2025, the communication index fell by 1.48%, while the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.34% [12] - Key A-share communication stocks showed varied performance, with 中国移动 down 3.00% and 中际旭创 up 0.53% [19] Important Industry Announcements - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments are promoting the development of a "space-ground integrated" satellite internet [21] - 中际旭创 plans to ramp up production of 800G silicon photonics starting in 2025, with 1.6T optical modules expected to follow [22]

Group 1: Electronic Industry Investment Outlook - The electronic industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index in 2024, with a rise of 17.39% compared to 14.30% for the CSI 300 and 17.45% for the ChiNext index [1] - The current hardware innovation cycle combined with the AI wave is ushering in a new development phase for the electronic industry, with a focus on smart hardware innovation [2] - Key areas of innovation include AI glasses, high-speed copper connections, and HBM (High Bandwidth Memory), with significant market potential projected for each segment [3][4][5] Group 2: AI Glasses - AI glasses are seen as a leading wearable device with high portability and interactivity, expected to reach a penetration rate of 70% by 2035, with global sales projected to hit 1.4 billion units [2] Group 3: High-Speed Copper Connections - High-speed copper cables are anticipated to see significant growth, with global shipments expected to reach 20 million units by the end of 2027, generating over $1.2 billion in annual revenue [3] Group 4: HBM Market - The HBM market is projected to contribute 10% of total DRAM output by 2025, doubling from 2024, with an estimated market size growth to $7.95 billion by 2029 [4] Group 5: Beneficiary Companies - Beneficiary companies for AI glasses include Hengxuan Technology, Rockchip, and others [6] - Beneficiary companies for high-speed copper connections include Wolong Nuclear Materials and others [7] - Beneficiary companies for HBM include Tongfu Microelectronics and others [8] Group 6: Metal Industry Investment Outlook - The global interest rate turning point is evident, with a significant increase in the number of countries lowering rates, indicating a shift from a tightening to a loosening monetary policy [16] - The metal industry is experiencing a strong cycle, with industrial metals like copper, lead, and zinc showing substantial returns [16][22] - The average ROE in the metal industry has improved from 2.49% to 8.31%, indicating enhanced profitability [22] Group 7: Construction Materials Industry - The construction materials industry is undergoing supply-side optimization, driven by policy changes and market consolidation, which is expected to improve supply-demand dynamics [25][27] - Major companies like Conch Cement are showing signs of profitability improvement amid industry challenges [25] Group 8: Automotive Industry Investment Outlook - The automotive market is expected to maintain stability, with a significant increase in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, reaching 43.8% [34] - The trend towards hybrid vehicles is accelerating, with hybrid model sales growing by 89.3% [34] - The profitability of automotive parts manufacturers is on the rise, with a net profit margin of 5.8% reported for the first three quarters of 2024 [36] Group 9: Food and Beverage Industry - The company Salted Fish has shifted its primary growth driver from direct sales to multi-channel strategies, including bulk and e-commerce [41] - The market for bulk snack stores is projected to grow significantly, with the number of stores expected to reach 45,000 by 2025 [42] Group 10: Transportation Industry - The transportation industry is facing price competition challenges, with a focus on improving supply-demand dynamics and identifying high-performing companies [46][48]

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 Q3：产业市场现状？后摩尔时代，先进制程工艺演进逼近物理极限，先进封 装（AP）成了延续芯片新能持续提升的道路之一。2025 年中国先进封装市场 规模将超过 1100 亿元，年复合增长率达 26.5%。CoWoS 先进封装技术主要应 用于 AI 算力芯片及 HBM 领域。英伟达是 CoWoS 主要需求大厂，在台积电的 CoWoS 产能中，英伟达占整体供应量比重超过 50%。目前，HBM 需要 CoWoS 等 2.5D 先进封装技术来实现，HBM 的产能将受制于 CoWoS 产能，同时 HBM 需求 激增进一步加剧了 CoWoS 封装的供不应求情况。 Q4：中国大陆主要有哪些企业参与？ 目前国内长电科技、通富微电、华天科 技等企业参与。长电科技拥有高集成度的晶圆级 WLP、2.5D/3D、系统级（SiP） 封装技术和高性能的 Flip Chip 和引线互联封装技术；通富微电超大尺寸 2D+封装技术及 3 维堆叠封装技术均获得验证通过；华天科技已掌握了 SiP、 FC、TSV、Bumping、Fan-Out、WLP、3D 等集成电路先进封装技术，持续推进 FOPLP 封装工艺开发和 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "positive," indicating a relative performance stronger than the market benchmark index by more than 5% [70]. Core Insights - The CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) technology is a 2.5D advanced packaging method that integrates multiple chips on a single silicon interposer, enhancing chip interconnectivity and performance [3][4]. - The advanced packaging market in China is projected to exceed 110 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.5% [4][30]. - The demand for CoWoS technology is driven by the rise of AI computing chips and high bandwidth memory (HBM), with NVIDIA accounting for over 50% of the CoWoS capacity at TSMC [4][33]. Summary by Sections CoWoS Technology Overview - CoWoS is a 2.5D advanced packaging technology that connects chips to a silicon wafer and integrates them with a substrate, allowing for high-density interconnects [3][4]. - The technology has undergone five iterations since its development by TSMC in 2011, with different types including CoWoS-S, CoWoS-R, and CoWoS-L, each with unique characteristics and applications [4][19]. Advantages and Challenges of CoWoS - Advantages include high integration, speed, reliability, and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional packaging methods [22][25]. - Challenges involve manufacturing complexity, yield issues, electrical integrity, and thermal management [28][22]. Market Landscape - The global advanced packaging market has grown from $30 billion in 2020 to $43.9 billion in 2023, with a projected increase to $47.25 billion in 2024 [30][32]. - In China, the advanced packaging market is expected to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for high-performance computing and AI applications [30][32]. Key Players in China - Major companies involved in the CoWoS technology in China include Changjiang Electronics Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huada Semiconductor, each with unique technological capabilities and market positions [39][44][50]. Future Trends in CoWoS Technology - CoWoS-L is anticipated to become the primary packaging type, combining the advantages of CoWoS-S and InFO technologies, enhancing electrical performance and integration flexibility [5][56]. - The introduction of embedded deep trench capacitors (eDTC) in CoWoS-L is expected to improve power distribution network performance significantly [56][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the advanced packaging sector will continue to benefit from the growth of AI and high-performance computing, with recommended investment targets including Changjiang Electronics Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Huada Semiconductor [60].

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 分析师推荐 【东兴策略】区间震荡趋势未改 逢低布局正当其时（20250103） 市场仍旧处于价值中枢区间，震荡趋势未改。我们认为，A 股已经进入新的 牛市周期，目前处于牛市周期的第二阶段，政策底之后的震荡阶段，最终通 过区间震荡形成市场底，这个阶段的方向性并不强，主要原因是政策出台后 等待基本面的恢复，市场处于强预期弱现实阶段，指数缺乏向上突破的动力。 从历史上历次牛市行情的演绎过程来看，市场都会走出或长或短的市场底阶 段，根据我们 A 股 2025 年策略展望判断，市场在政策反转之后，新的价值中 枢在 3200-3300 点，目前调整到价值中枢下轨，仍属于正常波动期间，我们 判断 2025 年市场极端下跌空间 10%，指数也就是 3000 点附近，目前市场持 续性下跌动力和空间均不大，短期市场在量能有所萎缩的状态下，可能会进 入弱势震荡阶段，重新寻找支撑位，市场慢牛格局仍会延续，底部抬升仍是 大概率，市场的恐慌性情绪只在短期内影响市场波动，不会改变市场中期向 上的格局， 逢低布局正当其时，大科技和消费是重点。市场在短期出现连续调整，有利 于市场底的探明，越接近价值中枢下轨，市 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 1 月 7 日星期二 分析师推荐 【东兴通信】通信行业：卫星互联网新星鸿擎科技完成 A1 轮融资，华工科 技 400G 硅光光模块国内批量出货——（20250106） 周观点： 华工正源在数通光模块建立产品矩阵优势和技术前瞻优势。 华工正源在数通光模块产品布局较宽。公司产品覆盖 400G 到 800G 的全系列 光模块，以及自研硅光 1.6T 高端模块产品，并且正在开发 3.2T 等下一代光 模块。800G 光模块是目前 AI 大模型企业主流需求产品，公司在 800G 光模块 方面产品丰富、表现突出。 华工正源数通光模块产品性能广受行业认可。2023 年第十届 ICC 讯石产品英 雄榜评选中，公司 800GOSFPDR8LPO 硅光模块获 2023 光通信最具竞争力产品 称号。2024 年，在 CFCF 展上，公司 800GOSFP2xFR4TRO 产品获 2024 年度最 具影响力光通信产品，800ZR/ZR+QSFP-DD 相干光模块获光模块类 2024 年度 产品创新奖。此外，公司在 2024 年 3 月的 OFC、9 月的 CIOE 展上，相继推出 1.6 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 1 月 6 日星期一 分析师推荐 【东兴策略】A 股 2025 年投资展望：砥砺前行 慢牛可期（20250103） 主要观点： A 股进入新的牛市周期：政策反转奠定牛市基础，A 股的牛市周期总是与当时 全球和国内政治经济周期息息相关，本轮经济下行周期主要特征是房地产下 行周期带来资产负债表受损，需求端不断下行，为了扭转下行趋势而推出系 列重要政策。利率下行带来风险偏好提升，中美进入利率下行共振期，美联 储预计 2025 年继续降息两次，中国央行表示未来有较大的降息降准空间。A 股市场供需格局改善，IPO 数量和融资额均大幅下降，同时居民端股票配置 偏低，机构配置比例提升，基金发行仍有较大增量。经济呈现弱复苏，地产 下行趋势边际改善，这一轮经济周期本质是地产下行周期，只要地产能够企 稳，宏观经济就能企稳，2025 年预计房地产销售负增减弱。中央财政还有较 大的举债空间和赤字提升空间，广义赤字 2025 年有望至 12 万亿左右。制度 性红利逐渐显现，资本市场高质量发展内涵发生重大变化：从注重融资功能 的增量向推动存量质量转变，通过加大分红，增强上市公司股东回报，鼓励 ...

纺服轻工行业 2025 年投资展望： 内需回 暖与外需韧性 2025 年 1 月 6 日 看好/维持 纺服轻工 行业报告 投资摘要： 回顾市场表现：2024 年轻工制造板块年内先跌后涨，截至 12 月 20 日，申万行业划分下的轻工制造板块年内收跌，跌幅 1.4%， 弱于沪深 300 指数。轻工制造 11 个子板块中，家居相关子板块普遍收跌，拖累整体。服装家纺板块，2024 年微微收跌，跑 输沪深 300，但纺织制造板块整体表现较好，有约 30%上涨，服装家纺板块表现较差。 基本面方面：轻工内销方面，24Q3 家居销售承压明显，上市公司业绩端普遍承压，主要因地产竣工数据压力的传导。24 年 10 月起随着补贴铺开，家居销售恢复同比增长，Q4 业绩有望维稳。轻工出口方面，国内出口数据上半年受益于低基数实现 增长，下半年出口有所走弱，部分企业如匠心家居、建霖家居三季报依然增速较高，显著优于行业数据。纺织服装 2024 年 呈现分化，纺织制造较为景气，行业及上市公司业绩呈现增长，服装家纺动销较弱，社零及上市公司业绩均有下滑。 分板块看： 一、家居板块：国补有望填平需求低谷，地产企稳可期 展望 2025 年：住宅竣工 ...

2025 年 1 月 6 日 看好/维持 通信 行业报告 通信行业：卫星互联网新星鸿擎科 技完成 A1 轮融资，华工科技 400G 硅光光模块国内批量出货 周观点： 华工正源在数通光模块建立产品矩阵优势和技术前瞻优势。 华工正源在数通光模块产品布局较宽。公司产品覆盖 400G 到 800G 的全系列光模块，以及自研硅光 1.6T 高端模块产品，并且正在开 发 3.2T 等下一代光模块。800G 光模块是目前 AI 大模型企业主流 需求产品，公司在 800G 光模块方面产品丰富、表现突出。 华工正源数通光模块产品性能广受行业认可。2023 年第十届 ICC 讯石产品英雄榜评选中，公司 800G OSFP DR8 LPO 硅光模块获 2023 光通信最具竞争力产品称号。2024 年，在 CFCF 展上，公司 800G OSFP 2xFR4 TRO 产品获 2024 年度最具影响力光通信产 品，800ZR/ZR+ QSFP-DD 相干光模块获光模块类 2024 年度产品 创新奖。此外，公司在 2024 年 3 月的 OFC、9 月的 CIOE 展上， 相继推出 1.6T 高速硅光模块的产品，抢占新一代技术制高点。 ...