Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry, indicating a relative strength against market benchmarks with expected returns exceeding 5% [6][62]. Core Insights - The food and beverage industry is witnessing a shift towards stable development among liquor companies, as evidenced by the recent series of distributor conferences held by major brands like Moutai and Wuliangye [12][14]. - Moutai plans to adjust its product offerings for 2025, focusing on increasing the overall supply of its flagship products while reducing the volume of certain variants [12]. - Wuliangye emphasizes price stability and market share acquisition as key strategies for the upcoming year, implementing tailored approaches for different regions and distributors [13]. - Liquor companies are increasingly prioritizing quality over quantity, aiming for sustainable growth and improved financial health rather than merely pushing for higher sales volumes [14]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage sector comprises 126 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 49,462.88 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.12% increase [2]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the industry stands at 22.17, indicating a moderate valuation level [2]. - Recent market performance shows a decline across various sub-sectors, with the liquor segment experiencing a drop of 2.56% [29]. Company Performance Tracking - Recent stock performance highlights include Yanjing Beer with a 3.09% increase and Bai Run shares rising by 2.72%, while companies like Jin Feng and Hainan Coconut Island faced significant declines [4][30]. - The report notes that the liquor industry is focusing on enhancing brand value and consumer engagement, particularly targeting younger demographics [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-bank financial industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2][24]. Core Insights - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have announced multiple fee reduction measures for 2025, which are expected to lower trading costs by approximately 1.5 billion yuan, enhancing trading activity and market liquidity [3]. - Following recent policy announcements aimed at stimulating the capital market, investor confidence is anticipated to rise, further boosting trading enthusiasm [4]. - The report highlights the potential for increased market concentration in the securities industry due to accelerated mergers and acquisitions, suggesting that leading firms may see their investment value recognized by the market [5]. Summary by Sections Fee Reduction Initiatives - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will waive listing fees for companies and reduce various transaction-related fees, with an estimated total reduction of about 965 million yuan for 2025 [3]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will also eliminate listing fees for funds and bonds, with an expected reduction of nearly 500 million yuan, bringing the total fee cuts from both exchanges to around 1.5 billion yuan [3]. Market Environment and Investor Sentiment - The report notes that the recent policy environment has significantly activated market enthusiasm, with expectations for further positive impacts from upcoming central government meetings [4]. - Continuous improvements in the capital market environment are expected to benefit various business operations within the securities industry, leading to performance enhancements and valuation increases [4]. Industry Trends - The report anticipates that the trend of mergers and acquisitions will strengthen the "Matthew Effect" in the securities industry, leading to higher market concentration [5]. - The growth of ETFs is highlighted as a significant opportunity, with differentiated investment demands suggesting continued focus on the investment value of securities ETFs [5].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a key policy direction for 2025, particularly in the context of real estate drag and external uncertainties [1] - The report highlights the potential impact of U.S. tariffs and tax cuts on inflation uncertainty, which may affect interest rate cuts [1] - The central economic work conference has identified expanding domestic demand and preventing real estate risks as critical components of risk prevention for 2025 [1] Industry Overview - The construction materials sector is advised to focus on supply-side optimization and mergers, benefiting leading and excellent companies [4] - The construction sector is expected to see improved demand elasticity influenced by central government fiscal efforts, with state-owned enterprises benefiting significantly from policies [4] - The report suggests that the transportation sector is experiencing a price competition phase, with a focus on supply-demand marginal improvements and policy adjustments [11][23] Company Insights - Zhonghe Technology is planning a major asset restructuring involving the acquisition of a 71.97% stake in Zhonghe Xiyi through a share issuance [7] - Changan Automobile is projected to achieve a total scale of over 3 million vehicles in 2025, with a market share exceeding 9.4% and a procurement amount of 148.7 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [8] - The report indicates that the logistics sector, particularly leading companies like Zhongtong and YTO, are expected to maintain stable profitability during downturns due to their advantages in franchisee stability [12] Market Trends - The report notes that the retail and social services sectors are experiencing a recovery in consumer spending, with a 3.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales from January to November 2024 [46] - The report identifies a shift towards "interest consumption," which is expected to drive growth in sectors like toys and beauty products, benefiting companies that can leverage IP and engage younger consumers [66][89] - The metal industry is anticipated to see a strong cycle driven by liquidity changes and inventory cycles, with a focus on industrial metals and new materials [16][29]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-banking financial sector, particularly the securities industry, with a "看好" (positive) rating for 2025 [1] Core Views - The securities sector outperformed major market indices in 2024, with the Shenwan Secondary Securities Index rising by 33.32% year-to-date as of December 20, 2024 [1] - The industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in the capital markets in 2025, driven by supportive macroeconomic policies and regulatory improvements [2] - The "9.24" policy announcements in 2024 significantly boosted market trading volumes, with daily average trading volume reaching 20.15 trillion yuan in October, up from 5.973 trillion yuan in August [3] - Wealth management and ETF-related businesses are seen as key growth areas for securities firms, with potential for rapid expansion in fee-based income [3] - The report highlights the importance of asset allocation and risk management capabilities for securities firms, especially in a volatile market environment [4] - Industry consolidation is expected to accelerate in 2025, with several major mergers and acquisitions anticipated, including potential deals involving Guotai Junan & Haitong, Minsheng & Guolian, and others [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance and Policy Impact - The securities sector experienced a strong rebound in 2024, driven by multiple policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting investor confidence [1] - The "9.24" policy announcements in 2024 led to a significant increase in market trading volumes, with daily average trading volume stabilizing above 1 trillion yuan in the latter months of the year [3] - The report expects continued policy support in 2025, including more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, which could further benefit the securities industry [2] Wealth Management and ETF Opportunities - The rapid growth in ETF investments is seen as a key driver for wealth management businesses, with securities firms expected to focus on ETF-related products and services [3] - The report notes that the rise in ETF investments could lead to increased fee income for securities firms, particularly in the area of fund settlement services [3] - Wealth management transformation remains a critical focus for securities firms, with a shift towards higher-value advisory services and product offerings [53] Industry Consolidation and Regulatory Trends - The report anticipates an acceleration in industry consolidation in 2025, with several major mergers and acquisitions expected to take place [5] - Regulatory trends are expected to remain focused on improving the capital market environment and standardizing the behavior of market participants [2] - The report highlights the importance of regulatory clarity and policy support in driving industry performance and valuation recovery [4] Investment Strategy and Valuation - The report suggests that the securities sector's valuation remains attractive, with a current PB ratio of 1.59x, which is at the 40.50% percentile of its 10-year historical range [4] - The report recommends focusing on leading securities firms with strong innovation capabilities and undervalued stocks, particularly those with exposure to wealth management and ETF-related businesses [5] - The report also emphasizes the importance of policy direction in determining the industry's performance and valuation recovery in 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" for the food and beverage sector, indicating a favorable outlook for the next six months [47]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "Gift Giving" feature by WeChat is expected to create a new consumption channel, particularly benefiting food and beverage companies with gifting attributes during peak gifting seasons like the Spring Festival and Valentine's Day [1][4]. - Companies that actively embrace this new channel are likely to gain a competitive edge, especially in the snack food segment, which has historically invested less in WeChat stores [11]. - The collaboration between companies like Laiyifen and Tencent enhances their market presence and operational capabilities, leveraging consumer data for targeted marketing [35]. Summary by Sections WeChat Gift Giving Feature - The "Gift Giving" feature is in a testing phase and aims to meet the growing gifting demand in a competitive online environment [1][4]. - This feature is anticipated to significantly boost transactions during major holidays, providing a new sales avenue for food and beverage companies [1]. Strategic Partnerships - The report highlights that certain companies, such as Laiyifen, are strategic partners with Tencent, allowing for deep collaboration in areas like marketing and digital infrastructure [2]. Supply Chain Innovations - Companies are restructuring their supply chains through self-built factories and innovative partnerships with raw material suppliers to reduce costs [3]. Market Dynamics - The food and beverage industry is seeing a shift towards online sales, with companies like Laiyifen and Good Products experiencing rapid growth in gift box sales, indicating a strong market response to the new gifting trend [33][34]. - The report notes that snack food companies are particularly well-positioned to capitalize on the WeChat gifting feature due to their lower historical investment in online channels [11][34].

回避：相对弱于市场基准指数收益率 5％以上。 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 分析师推荐 块（20241226） 行业回顾：量升价降贯穿全年，消费降级对行业影响较明显 截至 2024 年 12 月 24 日，年初以来交运板块涨幅约 12.5%，与之对比沪深 300 涨幅为 15.4%。虽然涨幅略低于沪深 300，但运输板块在申万一级板块中涨幅 依旧相对靠前。子板块中，市场对于高确定性子板块和周期底部反转的子板 块更加关注。 回顾今年全年，我们认为量升价降是今年运输行业比较明显的一个趋势，而 消费端的降级对于这种变化起到了比较关键的作用。量升意味着国内市场的 潜在需求依旧有待挖掘，价降则说明了增量客户对于性价比提出了更高的要 求，下沉市场的重要性继续凸显。 25 年展望：正视行业价格竞争，重视供需边际改善和政策调控 我们认为，量升价降不仅是今年的现状，由此可能带来的价格内卷性竞争也 是 25 年行业可能会面临的挑战。12 月召开的中央经济工作会议中明确提出， 要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，规范地方政府和企业行为，说明政府部门对于 明年价格竞争加剧的可能性有充分的认识，同时也说明国家对于反内卷 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------|-------|-----------------------|-----------------------------------------------|-------------|---------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 商贸零售&社会服务行业 | 2025 \n望：政策激发消费活力，聚焦高景气赛道 | 年投资展 \n | 2024 年 12 月 27 日 \n看好/维持 \n商贸零售 行业报告 | | | 分析师 刘田田 电话： | | 010-66554038 | 邮箱： liutt@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： S1480521010001 | | | 分析师 魏宇萌 电话： | | 010-66555446 | 邮箱： weiym@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： S1480522090004 | 投资摘要： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy rating for the construction and building materials industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [12][19]. Core Insights - The real estate sector's negative cycle continues to impact various aspects of the Chinese economy, constraining domestic demand and healthy economic development. The decline in new and second-hand housing prices has persisted for nearly three years, although there are signs of a slowdown in the cycle's acceleration [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the return to a long-term healthy development trajectory for the real estate sector is essential to avoid systemic risks for the Chinese economy. As the downward momentum in real estate weakens and policy measures begin to take effect, the pessimistic expectations from prolonged declines are expected to improve, leading to a recovery in industry valuations [2][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The negative cycle in real estate has affected the real estate chain, government chain, consumption chain, and financial chain, significantly constraining the release of domestic demand and impacting overall economic health. The cumulative income from land use rights transfer and general public revenue decreased by 22.4% and 0.6% respectively from January to September 2024 [1][11]. - The cumulative social financing scale from January to November 2024 was 29.42 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.62%, with a more significant drop of 20.47% when excluding government bond issuance [1][11]. Policy Measures - 2024 is seen as a year to counteract the drag from real estate, address local government debt, and promote new productive forces. The report highlights the importance of government bond issuance and monetary policy adjustments to stimulate domestic demand [11][31]. - The report outlines that various policies have been introduced since the fourth quarter of 2021 to address the issues in the real estate sector, including measures to stimulate housing demand and support the normal operation of real estate companies [16][31]. Industry Outlook - The construction and building materials industry is expected to return to a new balance due to supply-side optimization and stabilization in the real estate sector, which will improve valuations and performance. The report notes that the industry has faced intense competition and many small to medium enterprises are struggling [14][15]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong competitive advantages and risk resilience, as they are likely to benefit the most from supply-side improvements and potential mergers and acquisitions [18][19]. Key Company Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts and ratings for key companies in the industry, with several companies receiving a strong buy recommendation based on their expected performance and market conditions [19][20].

行 业 研 究 金属行业：西部矿业（601168.SH）：持续优化的多金属采选冶一体化西部龙头 （II）-冶炼及多元板块拆分梳理 公司积极融入世界级盐湖产业基地建设，通过股权投资等方式进入盐湖提镁、盐湖提锂等 相关领域。公司拥有青海团结湖镁盐矿，含镁盐资源量 3046.25 万吨，氯化镁品位 36%， 证载规模 50 万吨/年，剩余资源可开采年限 60 年。2023 年，公司镁类产品实现营业收入 4.62亿元，同比增长41.29%，毛利率高达21.69%，较2022年增加3.93个百分点。2024H1， 公司生产高纯氢氧化镁 58919 吨，完成计划的 58.92%。 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 矿山实际开工率受政策影响出现下滑等。 S1480522060001，021-25102909，liuhang-yjs@dxzq.net.cn 当前硬件创新周期叠加 AI 浪潮，电子行业迎来新的发展阶段。我们建议积极关注行业层面 边际变化，重视智能硬件端创新，看好方向如下： 投资建议：当前硬件创新周期叠加 AI 浪潮，电子行业迎来新的发展阶段。我们建议积极关 首席周观点：2024 年 ...

以报告日后的 6 个月内，公司股价相对于同期市场基准指数的表现为标准定义： 强烈推荐：相对强于市场基准指数收益率 15％以上； 行业投资评级（A 股市场基准为沪深 300 指数，香港市场基准为恒生指数，美国市场基准为标普 500 指 数）： 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 东兴晨报 P1 2024 年 12 月 26 日星期四 A 股新股日历（本周网上发行新股） *价格单位为元/股 *价格单位为元/股 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 【东兴有色金属】金属行业 2025 年度展望：流动性周期切换叠加库存周期 新一轮基钦周期开启有助商品价格弹性释放。从 2003 年 2024 年，我们观察 发现，市场已经经历了 5 轮库存周期的切换。每轮库存周期的变化重点有分 化，而从库存周期的变化角度观察，当前或已经到了主动去库存周期的尾声。 当前，市场在低库存状态下进入被动库存调整阶段，库存的变化受订单的实 际推动及行业需求预期的变动影响，而企业利润率及有效现金流亦对库存周 期的变化起到实质影响。考虑到低库存状态下经济新动能的有效带动，新一 轮基钦周期的开启或令行业由被动库存操作向主动补库存转变（从 ...