Group 1 - The investment rating for the aluminum industry shows a significant increase in public fund allocation from 0.01% in Q3 2020 to 0.7% in Q3 2024, indicating a positive trend in investment attractiveness [1] - The core viewpoint highlights that the average PE (TTM) of the aluminum industry has decreased from approximately 30X in 2020 to about 13X in 2024, suggesting an improvement in the safety margin for investments [1] - The report indicates that the pricing logic for alumina and aluminum products remains upward due to supply rigidity, which is expected to maintain high industry prosperity [1] Group 2 - The global gold supply has entered a structurally tight state, with supply-demand fundamentals expected to determine the pricing floor for gold [2] - The report notes a significant increase in central bank and ETF gold consumption over the past decade, indicating a structural change in gold consumption patterns [6] - Historical data shows that gold prices tend to rise during U.S. interest rate cuts, with an average increase of 66.7% during such periods [18][44] Group 3 - The global platinum market is experiencing a structural shortage, with supply showing signs of contraction since 2016 [50] - The report predicts that global platinum demand will reach 7.22 million ounces in 2024, reflecting a 20.33% increase from 2020 [28] - The supply of molybdenum is characterized by strong rigidity, with a projected price increase potential of nearly 40% due to tight supply-demand dynamics [37] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity cycles and inventory cycles in driving commodity prices, suggesting a potential resurgence in the metal industry [38][39] - The analysis indicates that the metal industry should focus on four main lines: industrial metals, new materials, small metals with elastic demand, and precious metals with strong hedging properties [43][79] - The overall financial health of the industry has improved, with average ROE rising from 2.49% to 8.31% and average ROA increasing from 0.98% to 3.53% from Q1 2021 to Q3 2024 [89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the transportation industry in 2025, emphasizing the selection of sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics [26][45]. Core Insights - The transportation industry has experienced a notable trend of increasing volume and decreasing prices throughout the year, significantly influenced by consumer downgrade [6][17]. - The report highlights that the demand for stable returns is a long-term trend, with the current interest rate reduction cycle enhancing the safety margin for high-dividend highway stocks [3][29]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors with expected supply-demand improvements and high earnings certainty, particularly those benefiting from the interest rate reduction cycle [7][46]. Summary by Sections Industry Review and Outlook - The transportation industry has seen a clear trend of volume increase and price decrease, with consumer downgrade playing a crucial role in this change [17][39]. - The industry is expected to gradually shift from oversupply to a balanced supply-demand situation, with profit elasticity likely to be released [5][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of recognizing price competition and the need for policy regulation to address potential challenges in 2025 [27][45]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of price competition, with performance differentiation among companies becoming more pronounced [2][66]. - The report notes that the growth of low-priced items has exceeded market expectations, leading to a renewed focus on market share by leading companies like Zhongtong [28][50]. - The competition will likely intensify in 2025, as major players re-engage in the battle for market share, potentially increasing the intensity of price wars [71][72]. Highway Sector - The highway sector is benefiting from its strong cash flow and high dividend characteristics, attracting continuous market attention [9][29]. - The report indicates that the valuation of highway stocks is improving due to the reassessment of toll revenue and the decline in risk-free interest rates [29][60]. - The sector is currently in a high-certainty upward cycle, with increasing focus on dividend payouts [9][60]. Aviation Sector - The aviation industry is experiencing slow demand recovery, with low growth in supply expected to gradually alleviate oversupply issues [29][31]. - The report highlights that passenger load factors have significantly improved compared to previous years, although ticket prices remain lower than pre-pandemic levels [10][38]. - The report suggests that the valuation of aviation stocks may be better reflected through operating cash flow metrics rather than traditional PE and PB ratios [31][46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a shift in the company's main drivers from direct retail supermarkets to bulk sales and e-commerce, with a current store penetration rate of 44% and a potential opening space of 81,000 stores nationwide [2][3] - The company is expected to see significant growth in its bulk snack channel, which is projected to account for approximately 25% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, driven by natural growth from brand store expansions, increased SKU counts, new strategic partnerships, and core product sales growth [3][4] - The total market size for the bulk snack industry is estimated to reach 210.6 billion yuan, with the company currently holding a market share of about 35% [3][4] Group 2 - The report forecasts the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 51.98 billion, 64.29 billion, and 76.49 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 6.45 billion, 8.27 billion, and 10.35 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 26.44%, 28.24%, and 24.9% [4] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth momentum through its expansion in Douyin, bulk sales, and distribution channels, indicating a robust long-term growth potential [4] Group 3 - The chemical industry is anticipated to see a marginal recovery in 2025, driven by improvements in supply-demand dynamics, with specific sub-sectors expected to present good investment opportunities [5][7] - The report highlights three major investment directions: sub-industries with improving supply-demand dynamics, leading enterprises driven by capital expenditure and R&D, and high-end chemical new materials benefiting from increased demand and domestic substitution [6][7][25] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of the furniture retail sector, noting that the implementation of "old-for-new" subsidy policies has significantly improved sales figures, with a notable increase in retail values in October and November 2024 [69][70] - The anticipated continuation of subsidy policies into 2025 is expected to further support demand in the home furnishings market, particularly benefiting compliant and financially robust companies [71]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strongly Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price range of 58.88-35.78 yuan [7][15] Core Views - The company has transitioned from being primarily driven by direct supermarket sales to being driven by discount snack stores and e-commerce, with distribution as the foundation [97] - The company's growth potential is strong, driven by multiple channels including TikTok, discount snack stores, and distribution networks [15] - The company's revenue from discount snack channels is expected to reach 30 billion yuan in the future, with a potential 4x growth compared to 2023 [11][58] Channel Development - The company's traditional supermarket channel revenue has declined from 94% in 2020 to 59% in 2023, but still grew by 12.32% YoY in 2023 [1] - The discount snack channel contributed 25% of total revenue in H1 2024, with future growth driven by increased SKUs, new strategic partnerships, and core product sales [5][6] - E-commerce revenue grew by 48.40% YoY in H1 2024, accounting for 23.6% of total revenue, up 9.1 percentage points from 2022 [60] Market Potential - The discount snack market is projected to reach 210.6 billion yuan, with the potential for 81,000 stores nationwide [10][11] - The company's revenue from the discount snack channel is expected to grow to 30 billion yuan, driven by increased market share and SKU expansion [58] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to be 5.198 billion yuan in 2024, 6.429 billion yuan in 2025, and 7.649 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 26.44%, 28.24%, and 24.9% respectively [15] - Net profit is expected to be 645 million yuan in 2024, 827 million yuan in 2025, and 1.035 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 26.44%, 28.24%, and 24.9% respectively [15] Competitive Landscape - The company is the only fully self-manufacturing company among the top five snack brands, with a natural GMV share of 41.74% on TikTok in Q1 2024 [37] - The company's SKU count in discount snack stores has increased from 40 in 2023 to over 50 in 2024, with further growth expected [33] Regional Expansion - The company's sales are concentrated in Central China, accounting for 39% of total sales in 2023, with significant growth potential in other regions [77] - The company has 3,315 distributors nationwide, with a focus on Central and East China, and plans to expand further into other regions [159]

行 业 研 究 （1）供需格局有望改善的子行业。结合前述我们对于国内化工供给和需求格局的分析，我们认为，从供给端来看，受到行 业竞争加剧、市场价格下行、投资回报率降低等因素的影响，国内化工行业固定资产投资增速有所放缓，部分产品产能投放 趋于尾声。此外，国家节能降碳政策的要求驱动相关高耗能行业落后产能逐步淘汰改造。叠加海外老旧化工品产能退出力度 加大；从需求端来看，国内制造业需求和出口需求均已有明显改善，目前国内宏观经济政策持续发力，整体需求端有望持续 改善；此外，大规模设备更新、消费品以旧换新等具体政策，也有助于拉动汽车、家电产业链相关化工品的需求。因此我们 认为国内部分化工子行业的供需格局有改善趋势，我们看好钛白粉、添加剂（氨基酸和维生素）、化纤、制冷剂等子行业的供 需格局有望逐步好转。 投资策略：我们认为 2025 年国内化工行业供需格局有改善预期、行业景气度有望边际回暖。不论是从价格周期角度、还是 行业竞争格局边际变化的角度来看，我们认为部分细分领域存在较好的投资机会。我们建议重点关注：①供需格局有望改善 的子行业；②资本开支扩张和研发驱动成长的龙头企业；③受益于需求增加、或国产替代持续推进的部分高端化 ...

东兴晨报 P1 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 深证成指 10,671.43 1.27 中小板 6,517.45 1.44 香港恒生 20098.29 1.08 名称 价格 行业 发行日 星图测控 6.92 计算机 20241224 中力股份 20.32 机械设备 20241224 分析师推荐 出（20241219） 按消费类型看，必选消费持续稳健，可选品类表现分化。按消费类型来看， 2024 年 11 月商品零售额同比增长 2.8%，餐饮收入同比增长 4%，餐饮消费增 速反超商品零售增速，也受到双十一大促时间错配扰动。商品零售中，粮油 食品、饮料类、日用品类销售额分别同比+10.1%、-4.3%和+1.3%，必选消费 表现较为稳健；可选消费品类表现分化，化妆品类、服饰鞋帽类、金银珠宝 类等当月同比负增长，家用电器类、家居类等同比双位数增长，表现亮眼。 风险提示：消费需求不足，市场竞争加剧等。 行业供需表现：11 月猪价先跌后涨，均价继续回调。农业农村部监测数据显 A 股新股日历（日内上市新股） 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 东兴晨报 P2 后市周期预判：从阶段性节奏来看，年末生猪供需两端均有提振，供给端 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the food and beverage industry, particularly focusing on the holiday gifting opportunities in the snack food sector [1]. Core Insights - The introduction of the "Gift Giving" feature by WeChat Shop is expected to create a new consumption channel, especially benefiting food and beverage companies with gifting attributes [10][11]. - The feature is anticipated to enhance user engagement and increase online sales for companies that actively embrace this channel, with a particular focus on snack food enterprises [11][34]. - The upcoming holiday seasons, including Christmas, New Year, and Valentine's Day, are expected to drive significant gifting transactions, particularly in categories like alcoholic beverages, snack foods, and dairy products [34]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes recent weekly performance across various sub-sectors in the food and beverage industry, with declines observed in categories such as beer (-1.38%), meat products (-3.87%), and dairy products (-8.61%) [35]. - The top-performing companies in the alcoholic beverage sector included ST Tongpu (3.97%) and Huangtai Wine (2.03%), while the worst performers included Hainan Coconut Island (-10.01%) and Jinfeng Wine (-10.61%) [36]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry has a total market capitalization of approximately 49,235.26 billion, with a circulating market value of about 47,654.96 billion [11]. - The average industry price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.06, indicating the current valuation landscape within the sector [11]. Key Company Tracking - Companies such as Three Squirrels and Qiaqia Foods are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the new gifting feature due to their proactive strategies in the snack food segment [11][34].

行 业 研 究 2024 年 12 月 23 日 看好/维持 轻工制造 行业报告 股票家数 168 3.7% 行业市值(亿元) 10457.17 1.09% 流通市值(亿元) 9356.48 1.2% 行业平均市盈率 28.65 / 资料来源：恒生聚源、东兴证券研究所 家居行业：以旧换新补贴政策支撑 需求 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 事件：2024 年 11 月家具类商品零售类值 190 亿元，同比+10.5%；1-11 月家具 类商品零售类值 1505 亿元，同比+2.9%。 家具零售数据改善，以旧换新补贴效果明显。9 月以来各地家居以旧换新政策 陆续落地，其中广东、四川等区域补贴政策实施较早，其中广东截至 10 月 20 日，家装厨卫"焕新"已实现销售额 16.1 亿元，销售 58.8 万套，效果明显。 在标杆地区带动下，各地区政策陆续推进，补贴范围逐步扩大。2024 年 1-9 月家具类商品零售类值累计同比仅为 1.1%，而 10-11 月同比分别达到+7.4%、 +10.5%，以旧换新补贴政策效果明显，11 月增长速度环比提升，表明以旧换 新补贴参与范围在继续扩大。 ...

（分析师：程诗月 执业编码：S1480519050006 电话：010-66555458） 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 东兴晨报 P12 （一）AI 眼镜：AI 眼镜是具有便携和交互性的可穿戴设备，AI 端侧最佳载体之一。目前 AI 智能眼镜发展仍 处于探索期，多家公司布局探索 AI 智能眼镜方案，包括传统手机厂商、互联网大厂、以及初创公司等，2024 年下半年有相关 AI 智能眼镜新品亮相发布。WellsennXR 预测，预计到 2035 年 AI+AR 智能眼镜渗透率有望 达到 70%，全球 AI+AR 智能眼镜销量达到 14 亿副，或将成为下一代通用计算平台和终端。 （二）高速铜连接：高速铜缆 DAC 具有成本低且能最大程度降低功耗的优势，在服务器内部的短距离传输场 景中实现高速平行互联。英伟达作为全球 AI 产业的领航者，GB200NVL72 基于 Blackwell 的架构，在性能上 具有巨大的升级，采用铜缆连接方式作为数据中心柜内连接方式，将助力高速铜互联将进入快速发展时期。 LightCounting 预测，至 2027 年年底，全球高速铜缆的出货量将达到 2000 万条规 ...

Group 1: Food and Beverage Industry - The central economic work conference emphasizes boosting consumption as a key focus, with specific actions aimed at increasing the income and reducing the burden on the middle and low-income groups to enhance their consumption capacity and willingness [1][4][73] - The report anticipates a recovery in food and beverage consumption, particularly in sub-sectors closely related to economic prosperity, such as liquor and condiments, driven by national stimulus policies [4][76] - Companies with continuously improving market share are recommended for investment, including Guizhou Moutai, Anjijia Food, and Three Squirrels [4] Group 2: Construction and Engineering Industry - Major state-owned construction companies are experiencing significant growth in new overseas contracts, with China State Construction Engineering Corporation leading the way [5][64] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is enhancing the competitiveness of Chinese construction firms in international markets, with a notable increase in new contracts from Belt and Road countries [5][64][65] - The report suggests that the positive impact of proactive fiscal and monetary policies will improve demand in the construction sector, recommending companies like China Communications Construction Company and China State Construction [81] Group 3: Banking Industry - The report indicates that government bonds are a major contributor to social financing, with a notable increase in government bond issuance supporting the financial system [9][84] - There is a marginal improvement in long-term loans for residents, while corporate credit remains weak, indicating a need for further recovery in the corporate sector [11][84] - The banking sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in economic fundamentals and improved credit conditions, with a focus on long-term investment opportunities [85][86] Group 4: Ice and Snow Industry - The ice and snow industry is projected to grow significantly, with government policies supporting the development of ice and snow sports facilities and related economic activities [25][94] - The number of ice and snow venues has increased, indicating a growing interest in winter sports, with a notable rise in both skiing and skating facilities [91] - The report highlights the potential for high-end ski resorts to capture a larger market share, driven by increasing consumer demand and government support for the ice and snow economy [17][25]