风险提示：长期债券收益率下行、代理人超规模下滑、大灾损害提升。 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 保险Ⅱ行业 7 月行业保费点评-人身险与财产险的保费 增长均有所提速 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 人身险方面，受益于预定利率下调及居民储蓄意愿较高等因素，景气 度仍然较高。根据国家金融监督管理总局及公司月度保费公告，1-7 月 人身险公司保费收入增速为 13.1%，较 1-6 月的 13%有所提速，主要 受益于预定利率切换带来的需求释放，且增速明显高于同期的上市险 企，如平安（6.3%）、国寿（4.4%）、新华（-6.4%）、太保（-2.6%）， 预计主因上市险企更加注重高价值的业务，主动优化缴费结构和渠道 结构，截至 7 月底的市场份额分别为平安（12.6%，同比-0.8pct，下 同）、国寿（18%，-1.5pct）、新华（3.9%，-0.8pct）、太保（5.9%， -0.9pct）。其中寿险 6 月单月保费增速为 16.1%，较前值的 19.7%有所 收窄，主要前期部分代理人自发宣导预定利率下调已经推动一部分保 费兑现；健康险单月保费增速为 9.3%（前值为 7.5%），增速的提升 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hangzhou Bank [2] Core Views - Hangzhou Bank's H1 2024 performance shows revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders growing by 5.4%, 5.4%, and 20.1% year-on-year, respectively. The growth rates compared to Q1 2024 changed by +1.86 percentage points, +0.89 percentage points, and -1.05 percentage points [1][9] - Key highlights include significant growth in loan and deposit volumes, with interest-earning assets increasing by 13.8% year-on-year, and loans and investment assets growing by 16.5% and 16.1%, respectively. The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains stable at 0.76% for six consecutive quarters [1][9] - The report emphasizes the narrowing net interest margin and pressure on non-interest income, with net fee and commission income declining by 9.9% year-on-year [1][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue growth of 5.4% and net profit growth of 20.1% reflect strong operational performance despite some pressures [1][9] - The bank's total assets grew by 13.79% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 16.47% and deposits by 13.70% [9][12] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio stands at 0.76%, with a provision coverage ratio of 545.17%, indicating strong asset quality management [1][9] - The report notes a slight increase in personal loan risks, with non-performing rates for corporate and retail loans at 0.76% each [1][9] Income Sources - Other non-interest income surged by 28.32%, primarily driven by increased investment income, which rose by 55.40% year-on-year [1][9] - The bank's net interest margin decreased to 1.42%, down 8 basis points from the previous year, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and LPR adjustments [1][9] Profitability Forecast - The forecast predicts net profit growth of 20.38% and 18.29% for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with EPS expected to be 2.80 and 3.34 CNY per share [1][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A / Buy - H" with a current price of 18.43 CNY / 11.18 HKD and a fair value of 23.08 CNY / 14 HKD [2]. Core Views - The company reported stable performance in its 2024 mid-year report, with revenue of 30.183 billion CNY, down 4.18% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.570 billion CNY, down 6.51% year-on-year. The net assets increased by 8.23% year-on-year to 284.5 billion CNY, and the leverage ratio (excluding agency funds) rose from 4.27 times at the end of 2023 to 4.43 times in H1 2024 [3][10][12]. - The business is developing in a balanced manner, with the proportion of heavy assets increasing to 48%. Key revenue components include net investment income of 11.949 billion CNY (up 0.4% year-on-year), investment banking revenue of 1.735 billion CNY (down 54.6%), brokerage business revenue of 4.880 billion CNY (down 7.8%), and asset management revenue of 4.914 billion CNY (down 1.1%) [3][4][14]. - The company is focusing on high-quality development in light asset wealth management, leveraging its leading position in investment banking and deepening internationalization. The asset management business saw a decline in revenue, while the fund management business experienced strong growth [3][16][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue and Profit Stability - Revenue decreased by 4.18% year-on-year to 30.183 billion CNY, and net profit decreased by 6.51% to 10.570 billion CNY. The annualized ROE increased to 7.92%, and the leverage ratio slightly improved [10][12][11]. 2. Balanced Business Development - The revenue structure is balanced, with heavy asset business proportion rising to 47.8%. Investment income accounted for 43.8% of total revenue, while brokerage and asset management contributed 18% each [14][15]. 3. Wealth Management and Internationalization - The company is enhancing its wealth management services and expanding its global footprint, with a focus on high-net-worth clients and institutions. The number of clients reached 14.7 million, and the total managed assets remained above 10 trillion CNY [16][19]. 4. Asset Management Performance - The asset management business reported a revenue decline of 4%, while the fund management business grew by 19.8%. The company maintains a leading market share in private asset management [17][19]. 5. Investment Banking Performance - The investment banking segment faced challenges, with revenues down 54.6%. However, the company remains a leader in the market, completing numerous A-share underwriting projects [20][22]. 6. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to benefit from institutionalization and internationalization trends. The estimated net asset per share for 2023-2024 is projected to be 19.23 CNY and 20.58 CNY, respectively, with a fair value of 23.08 CNY per share for A-shares and 14 HKD for H-shares [4][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuliangye [5] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 50.65 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.06 billion yuan, up 11.9% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 15.82 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.1% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 5.01 billion yuan, which is an increase of 11.5% year-on-year [2] - The product lines are performing well, with revenue from Wuliangye and other liquor products reaching 39.21 billion yuan and 7.91 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 11.5% and 17.8% [2] - The company is expanding its distributor team, with a net increase of 98 and 268 distributors for Wuliangye and Wuliang Nuo Xiang liquor respectively [2] - The gross margin improved, with H1 2024 gross margin at 77.4%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, and Q2 2024 gross margin at 75.0%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Cash flow is strong, with sales cash receipts reaching 49.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [2] Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The report maintains previous earnings forecasts, expecting revenues of 92 billion yuan, 102 billion yuan, and 111 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 9% respectively [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 33.4 billion yuan, 37.1 billion yuan, and 40.8 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 11%, and 10% respectively [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 13, 12, and 11 for 2024-2026 [3] - The report suggests a target price of 146.29 yuan per share based on a 17x P/E for 2024 [3]

证券研究报告 | --- | --- | |------------------------|------------| | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-08-27 | [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | --- | --- | |---------------------------|------------| | 汽车行业 2024 年中期策略: | 2024-06-27 | | 双轮驱动下的需求依然值得 | | | 期待 | | | 汽车行业：乘用车海外（出 | 2023-09-04 | [Table_Title] 汽车行业：乘用车海外（出口）系列三 谁将引领下阶段全球汽车电气化进程？ [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 写在前面：21 年以来，国内新能源在政策端多层推动、供给端强产品 力产品推出、需求端新能源接受程度持续提升驱动下渗透率快速提升， 中国品牌凭借过去在"驱动技术的有效选择与储备"加持下持续向上， 其中诞生于中国市场的新品类—"电为主，油为辅"的插电混动（本篇 报告先以 PHEV ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [1]. Core Viewpoints - On August 23, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee reviewed policies to further promote the new pattern of Western Development, emphasizing the importance of energy resource engineering investment opportunities [2][3]. - The meeting highlighted three major construction areas: environmental governance, energy resources, and urbanization. It stressed the need for high-level protection and green low-carbon development, as well as the acceleration of energy resource project construction [3]. - The report suggests a continued focus on power engineering and integrated mining service and blasting companies. It recommends companies involved in green electricity construction and supporting energy/storage construction, such as China Huadian Heavy Industries and China Power Construction [3]. - The mining service and blasting industry is projected to have a market space of approximately 286.4 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the rich mineral resources in the West and increasing demand for blasting engineering [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the strategic significance of the Western Development initiative in relation to national energy, resource, food security, and border stability [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report reaffirms the need to focus on power engineering and integrated mining service companies, highlighting the importance of clean energy base construction and the expected growth in the mining service and blasting market [3]. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the construction and mining sectors, all rated as "Buy," with reasonable values and projected earnings per share for 2024 and 2025 [9].

证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业 加快构建房地产新模式，推动住房体检养老保险制度 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 明确房地产新模式概念，构建新模式下行业制度。24 年 8 月 23 日国 新办举行"推动高质量发展"系列主题新闻发布会探讨房地产新模式， 通过完善住房供应体系重点增加保障性住房供给，建立"人、房、地、 钱"要素联动机制，有序推进现房销售，建立城市房地产融资协调机 制及项目"白名单"制度，建立房屋体检、房屋养老金、房屋保险制 度，建设绿色、低碳、智能、安全的"好房子"等六个方面推动行业 进入 "发展新模式"。"新模式"的持续推进将较大程度上从制度层面 完善行业中土地、金融、财税等运行逻辑，从供给端改变行业运行逻 辑，区分市场需求、改善产品供给、提高行业安全性，为行业持续平 稳健康发展从根本上和制度上提供保障。 ⚫ 推动住房体检、养老、保险制度，22 城先行试点。本次会议中提到"建 立房屋体检、房屋养老金、房屋保险制度"，在上海等 22 城先行试点， 重点建立政府的公共账户。24 年 8 月 21 日上海人大常委会上提到将 定期对房屋进行安全检查消除隐患、在房屋需要 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" for companies with significant revenue elasticity in payment services, accelerated fee increases, and rapid development in overseas business [2]. Core Insights - The domestic payment industry is experiencing a consolidation of licenses, leading to an increase in market concentration among top players. As of June 2024, there are approximately 50 licensed payment institutions with card acquiring qualifications, down from 270 licenses issued from 2011 to 2017 [2][8]. - The report highlights that the comprehensive fee rates for major listed payment companies are expected to rise, which could enhance their gross margins. The fee rates had reached historical lows during the pandemic but have begun to increase since 2023 [2][20]. - The overseas payment business is showing high gross margins, with companies like Lianlian and Fuyou benefiting from lower comprehensive rates in international markets. The cross-border e-commerce sector is also expanding, with export values increasing significantly from 0.61 trillion yuan in 2018 to 1.83 trillion yuan in 2023 [2][20]. - The report anticipates that the digital economy will drive the development of the payment industry, with SaaS solutions enhancing value-added services for clients [2][20]. Summary by Sections Domestic Industry Background - The reduction in payment licenses has led to a concentration of market share among the top five payment companies, whose transaction volume share increased from 42.5% in June 2022 to 49.6% in March 2024 [8][12]. - The comprehensive fee rates for payment services are expected to rise, with the potential for gross margin growth as the industry recovers from previous low points [20][21]. - The trend of third-party payment companies accelerating their penetration into QR code payments is noted, with a shift in merchant preferences towards independent service providers due to data security concerns [27][29]. Overseas Industry Background - Companies like Lianlian and Fuyou have a significant proportion of their revenue coming from overseas operations, with high gross margins compared to domestic operations [2][20]. - The report indicates that the overseas payment business can contribute incremental revenue, as domestic players expand their international footprint [2][20]. Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of the digital economy in driving the payment industry's high-quality development, with a focus on providing diversified payment products and solutions [2][20]. - The growth of value-added services is becoming a crucial strategy for payment companies to enhance customer loyalty [2][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue, PPOP, and net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2024, with year-on-year changes of -3.5%, -6.3%, and -1.6% respectively. This represents a slowdown compared to the first quarter of 2024 [3]. - Key positive factors include growth in personal loans and a rebound in net interest margin, while challenges include a contraction in asset size and pressure on non-interest income [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company experienced a revenue decline of 3.5%, PPOP down 6.3%, and net profit down 1.6% compared to the previous year. The growth rates have decreased by 3.48 percentage points, 6.47 percentage points, and 3.07 percentage points respectively from the first quarter of 2024 [3]. - The company’s net interest margin improved to 1.29% in the first half of 2024, up 2 basis points from the first quarter of 2024 and 1 basis point from the full year of 2023 [3]. Loan and Deposit Growth - As of the end of the second quarter of 2024, total loans grew by 6.1% year-on-year, with retail loans increasing by 5.8%. The growth in personal loans was driven by consumer and business loans, while mortgage loans remained weak [3]. - The company’s deposits saw a year-on-year growth of 2.4% as of the end of the second quarter of 2024, with a significant reduction in deposits of 29.8 billion yuan in the second quarter due to manual interest adjustments [3]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.32% as of the end of the second quarter of 2024, with a slight increase in personal loan NPLs by 8 basis points [3]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 204.82%, up 7.8 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating a stronger buffer against potential loan losses [3]. Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit growth for 2024 and 2025 is 0.1% and 2.0% respectively, with expected EPS of 1.15 and 1.17 yuan per share. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 6.91X for 2024 and 6.76X for 2025, and a PB ratio of 0.60X for 2024 and 0.57X for 2025 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 96.17 CNY per share based on a 20x PE valuation for 2024 [4][8]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 4.748 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 2.97%, and a net profit of 1.236 billion CNY, down 2.21% year-on-year. The gross margin was 37.15%, a decline of 4.61 percentage points year-on-year [3][7]. - The company is experiencing growth in its emerging market layout, particularly in the inverter and energy storage sectors, with significant sales in countries like Pakistan, Germany, Brazil, India, and South Africa [2][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 5.956 billion CNY, projected to grow to 12.000 billion CNY by 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 60.4% [3][10]. - The company's net profit is expected to increase from 1.517 billion CNY in 2022 to 3.068 billion CNY in 2024, representing a growth rate of 71.3% [3][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise from 3.53 CNY in 2022 to 4.81 CNY in 2024 [3][10]. Business Segments - Inverter Business: Revenue for the inverter segment is expected to reach 6.514 billion CNY in 2024, with a gross margin of approximately 49% [7][9]. - Energy Storage Battery Packs: Revenue is projected to grow significantly, reaching 3.000 billion CNY in 2024, with a gross margin of around 38% [7][9]. - Heat Exchanger Series: Expected revenue for this segment is 1.469 billion CNY in 2024, with a stable gross margin of 11% [10]. - Dehumidifier Series: Revenue is anticipated to be 0.879 billion CNY in 2024, maintaining a gross margin of approximately 32% [10].