[Table_Title] 轨交设备跟踪报告（八） 第二批高级修招标放量，五级修再超预期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 国铁发布年内第二批高级修招标公告，五级修累计招标 509 组。8 月 16 日，国铁采购平台发布第二批动车组高级修招标项目公告，其中五 级修 302 组，四级修 146.625 组，三级修 24 组，二次招标数量大超预 期。叠加 1 月份的首次招标，2024 年累计招标五级修 509 组，四级修 268 组，三级修 56 组。 ⚫ 高级修正式进入放量阶段，上行趋势有望延续。根据国铁采购平台，23 年五级修公开竞争性谈判采购 108 组，实际完成数量或高于该数字， 从公开招标量来看，今年五级修动车组数量同比显著大增。此前市场担 忧明后年动车组招标的持续性，但一方面，动车组高级修利润率较优， 集中放量将带来快速的利润增长，且今年部分订单有望延续至下一年； 另一方面，根据 wind，2013-2015 年的动车组采购量处于高峰期，明 后年高级修放量趋势预计仍将有望延续，轨交板块的后市场时代已经 到来。 ⚫ 重视高级修超预期带来的盈利释放，中期具备持续性+确定性。根据铁 道知识局公 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业 如何看待重卡行业出口市场空间 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 中国重卡出口近年显著增长，背后是 TCO（全生命周期总成本）的国 际竞争力。据海关总署，21 年以前中国重卡出口稳定在 8 万辆左右； 21 年重卡出口同比增长 79.6%至 14.1 万辆，迎来拐点；22 年、23 年 中国重卡出口保持较高增速，分别实现 19.1 万辆、31.9 万辆，同比增 速分别为 35.4%、66.7%；24 年上半年中国重卡出口 16.9 万辆，同比 增长 8.4%。欧美日韩生产的重卡新车与中国生产的重卡新车购入成本 差异过大，而欧美日韩生产的二手重卡在可使用里程数远低于中国生 产的重卡新车的情况下，售价不低于甚至略高于中国生产的重卡新车。 中国生产的重卡 TCO（全生命周期总成本）无论相比欧美日韩生产的 新车还是二手车均具有明显优势。 海外市场空间广阔，考虑到重卡产品的生产经营工具属性决定了用户 的认知具有滚雪球效应，我们预计重卡出口增长趋势长期可持续。中 国重卡出口的目标市场主要为亚非拉地区和俄罗斯。（1）亚非拉 ...

【广发非银&海外】中银航空租赁 （02588.HK） 负债端延续高企，待降息释放利润弹性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 公司公布 2024 年半年度业绩：上半年经营收入及其他收入总额 11.74 亿美元，同比增长 11%，净利润 4.60 亿美元，较 2023 年上半年的 2.62 亿美元增长 76%。剔除减值影响后，核心净利润同比增长 10%。 ⚫ 资产端：融资租赁扩表+飞机销售贡献收入弹性。（1）交付受供应紧缺 影响表现较弱，24H1 交付 18 架新飞机（23H1 为 16 架），自有飞机 利用率为 99%。18 架飞机中有 6 架记为经营租赁资产、有 12 架记为 融资租赁资产。（2）经营租赁：经营租赁收入 yoy-1.3%，占经营收入 总额近 80%。租金收入下降主因飞机销售数量大于经营租赁引入的飞 机数量，24H1 出售 15 架飞机（去年同期 3 架），经营租赁飞机资产余 额 187.49 亿美元，较 23 年底下滑 2%。24H1 经营租赁费率为 9.8%， 与 2023 年上半年一致，公司出售飞机平均机龄为 10 年，13-14 年飞 机租金收益率较高，上述资产出售可能结构 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates BYD and related core industry chain companies as "Buy" [4]. Core Insights - Electric intelligent technology innovation empowers Chinese electric vehicle leaders to seize opportunities in the fourth round of global automotive industry globalization. The report highlights the historical evolution of the automotive industry and identifies the current opportunity for Chinese companies to leverage their technological advantages and vertical integration capabilities to expand globally [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of market penetration potential, entry difficulty, and product advantages in assessing the adaptability of Chinese electric vehicle companies in overseas markets. It identifies the first-tier markets as the UK, India, Egypt, Australia, and Thailand, while the second-tier includes Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, Vietnam, and the Netherlands [2][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Seizing the Fourth Round of Global Automotive Industry Globalization - Electric intelligent technology innovation is restarting the globalization window for the automotive industry. Historical analysis shows that macroeconomic fluctuations, production technology changes, and consumer preferences have driven the restructuring of the global automotive landscape through four rounds [8]. - The fourth round (2020-2030) is characterized by electrification and intelligent technology, with Chinese companies leading the global electric vehicle market [8]. 2. Chinese Electric Vehicle Leaders Going Global - The report discusses the expansion of sales networks and production capacity in emerging markets, highlighting BYD's strategic focus on regions like Southeast Asia and South America. It notes that BYD aims to establish local production capacity of approximately 400,000 vehicles by 2025 [2][12]. - The report also mentions the competitive advantage of BYD's DM 5.0 technology in terms of fuel economy, which positions it favorably against European competitors as stricter emissions standards come into effect [2][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on global electric vehicle leader BYD and related core industry chain companies such as Hunan YN, Tianci Materials, and Xingyuan Materials for investment opportunities [2].

[Table_PageText] 腾讯控股|公告点评 三、风险提示 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|--------|-------|--------|--------|--------| | 主要财务比率 12 月 31 日 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | | | | | | | 主营收入增长率 | -1.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.4% | | 营业利润增长率 | -14.3% | 52.8% | 30.0% | 7.1% | 17.0% | | NonGAAP 业绩增速 | -7.2% | 34.9% | 39.7% | 12.0% | 12.4% | | | | | | | | | | 43.1% | 48.1% | 53.2% | 54.9% | 55.8% | | NonGAAP 净利率 | 20.8% | 25.9% | 33.4% | 34.6% | 36.2% | | NonGAAP ROE | 15.9% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingdee International (00268 HK) with a target price of HKD 11 88 per share [4][17] Core Views - Kingdee International reported H1 2024 revenue of RMB 2 87 billion, up 11 9% YoY, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB -220 million, improving from RMB -280 million in H1 2023 [2][6] - Cloud transformation continues to progress, with cloud business revenue growing 17 2% YoY to RMB 2 39 billion, accounting for 83 2% of total revenue ARR reached RMB 3 15 billion, up 24 2% YoY [2][7] - Key cloud products maintained high renewal rates: 97% for Cangqiong/Xinghan, 95% for Xingkong, and 92% for Xingchen, reflecting strong competitiveness in cloud services [2][9] - R&D and sales expense ratios declined by 0 9pct and 1 9pct YoY, respectively, indicating the cloud transformation is entering a harvest phase [2] Financial Performance - Traditional software revenue declined 8 8% YoY to RMB 480 million, while cloud revenue grew 17 2% YoY to RMB 2 39 billion [7] - Gross margin improved to 63 2% in H1 2024, up from 61 9% in H1 2023 [7] - Operating cash flow was RMB -166 million, slightly better than RMB -169 million in H1 2023 [7] - Contract liabilities related to cloud subscriptions reached RMB 2 71 billion, up 28 2% YoY [7] Cloud Business Breakdown - Cangqiong/Xinghan (PaaS/SaaS for large enterprises) revenue grew 38 9% YoY to RMB 550 million, with ARR up 29% YoY and a renewal rate of 97% [12][13] - Xingkong (mid-market SaaS) revenue increased 14 3% YoY to RMB 1 05 billion, with a renewal rate of 95% and 42,000 cumulative customers [14] - Xingchen (SME cloud) revenue surged 70 8% YoY, with a renewal rate of 92% [16] Market Expansion - Kingdee secured major clients in H1 2024, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China Aviation Group, and Dongfeng Motor [12] - The company expanded its global presence, signing 121 new overseas customers in regions like Southeast Asia and Europe [14] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts 2024-2026 revenue of RMB 6 51 billion, RMB 7 54 billion, and RMB 8 88 billion, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 14 6%, 15 9%, and 17 8% [17] - Based on a 6x PS multiple for 2024, the target price is set at HKD 11 88 per share [17] Competitive Positioning - Kingdee is positioned as a leading domestic cloud ERP provider, with strong market share growth, particularly in the large enterprise segment [17] - The company's financial quality is better than peers, with receivables accounting for only 2 6% of total assets in H1 2024, compared to 10 4% for Yonyou Network [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.47 CNY per share, based on a 13x PE for 2024 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.431 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 232 million CNY, up 2013.39% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 1.705 billion CNY, a 7.71% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 99 million CNY, up 457.68% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1][2]. - Profitability in Q2 2024 faced temporary pressure, with a gross margin of 11.24%, up 4.49 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.72 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 5.84%, up 4.72 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.98 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company anticipates price pressures on terminal food cardboard and the impact of high-priced pulp, but expects to improve profitability in H2 2024 through price increases, production of self-made pulp, and enhanced cost control [1][2]. - The company's core product output and sales showed stable growth, with a production volume of 580,800 tons of mechanical paper in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.57%, and sales of 566,100 tons, up 32.82% year-on-year. The company has diversified its product offerings, supporting future growth [1][2]. - The integration of pulp and paper production continues to advance, with 15 production lines established and a total designed capacity of 2.096 million tons. The company’s self-owned pulp line in Jiangxi has started production, aiding in cost reduction and smoothing out industry cycles [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 540 million CNY, 710 million CNY, and 840 million CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The expected revenue growth rates are 21.6% for 2024, 26.8% for 2025, and 15.3% for 2026 [2][8]. - The report indicates an EBITDA of 541 million CNY for 2023, with projections of 621 million CNY for 2024, 1.032 billion CNY for 2025, and 1.516 billion CNY for 2026 [2][8].

Xml [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业：AI 行业周报 谷歌发布智能语音助手 Gemini Live，昆仑万维推出 AI 音乐平台 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 国内 AI 动态跟踪：根据 SimilarWeb，上周（2024/8/5 - 2024/8/11） 国内主要 AI 大模型产品网页端访问量分别为：kimi 504.58 万次，环比 上升 4.02%；文心一言 410.22 万次，环比上升 1.85%；通义千问 178.18 万次，环比下降 7.06%；豆包 232.27 万次，环比上升 17.50%； 智谱清言 73.82 万次，环比下降 9.25%；讯飞星火 54.31 万次，环 比下降 1.13%；天工 AI 48.34 万次，环比下降 0.13%；腾讯元宝 21.75 万次，环比上升 7.98%。App 下载量看，根据七麦数据，kimi 8.30 万 次，环比下降 14.12%；文心一言 10.33 万次，环比下降 1.66%；通 义千问 7.58 万次，环比下降 36.69%；豆包 114.35 万次，环比上升 ...

[Table_Title] 万兴科技（300624.SZ） 24H1 业绩有所承压，AI 商业价值化探索进行时 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 24H1 营收同比略减，AI 商业化探索进行时。24H1，公司营收 7.1 亿 元，同减 1.8%。一方面，23H1 公司营收和利润的高基数是 24H1 营 收和利润同比减少的重要原因。另一方面，公司 AI 加持业务和产品的 商业化变现路径仍在探索，营收端体现尚不明显。我们认为，随着 AI 技术在各场景的深化和细化，公司有望推出更具创意的 AI 应用，差异 化的功能有利于其商业化落地进程。 毛利率有所下降，受 AI 算力相关投入增加影响。24H1，公司毛利率为 93.8%，同减 1.6pct，营业成本 4398 万元，同增 32.6%，主因系公司 加大 AI 投入带动算力相关费用快速增长。2024 年 1 月，公司推出"天 幕"大模型。我们认为，尽管公司对于 AI 业务的投入短期影响毛利率， 但其对 AI 大模型的定位以赋能为主，后续算力资源投入将维持在合理 范围，对于毛利率的影响有限。 AI 技术赋能各项业务和产品，商业化落地持续探索。当前，公司不仅 利 ...

[Table_Page] 中报点评|电力设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 东方电缆（603606.SH） 陆缆贡献营收增势，全球布局巩固韧性 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 二季度业绩略超市场预期，上半年业绩创历史高值。公司发布 2024 年 中报，24 年上半年实现营收 40.68 亿元，同比+10.31%；归母净利润 6.44 亿元，同比+4.47%。公司营业收入创历史高值，主要系陆缆系统 营收的大幅上涨。其中二季度实现营收 27.58 亿元，环比+110.43%， 同比+22.55%；归母净利润 3.81 亿元，环比+44.57%，同比+5.54%。 海缆高毛利持续稳定，在手订单可持续增长。根据公司财报，公司 24 年上半年实现海缆系统及海洋工程营收 17.69 亿元（其中海缆系统 14.85 亿元，海洋工程 2.84 亿元），同比-5.01%，占公司营收比重 43.48%，海缆系统平均毛利率约 40%，海洋工程平均毛利率约 33%； 陆缆系统实现营收 22.94 亿元，同比+25.91%，占公司营收比重 56.38%，陆缆系统平均毛利率约 10%。截至 2024 年 8 月 ...