Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - Focus on companies: China General Nuclear Power, Huadian International Power, Zhejiang Energy, Sheneng Co., Huaneng International, Guangzhou Development, Yangtze Power, and Funiu Co. [2] - Electricity consumption growth has slowed, with hydropower's squeezing effect diminishing, leading to a rebound in thermal power growth. In July, total electricity consumption increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with the secondary industry growing by 5.0% [2][15] - Mid-year performance reports are being released, with 22 companies in the GFGY sample reporting a total net profit of 46.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%. Six companies announced mid-term dividend plans, indicating strong cash dividend capabilities in the utility sector [2][13] - The introduction of auxiliary service guidelines marks the second phase of the thermal power value cycle, with expectations for continuous improvement in quarterly profits and stable coal prices [2][8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Thermal Power Growth and Mid-term Dividends - Several utility companies have increased mid-term dividends, reinforcing the sector's utility attributes. As of August 24, 22 companies in the GFGY sample have released mid-year reports, with six announcing dividend plans [13] - In July, total electricity consumption increased by 5.7% year-on-year, with the secondary industry contributing significantly [15][29] Section 2: Policy Review - The report discusses the implementation of major equipment updates in key energy sectors, reflecting ongoing policy support for the industry [8] Section 3: Industry High-frequency Data Tracking - Recent data shows stabilization in domestic and international coal prices, with coastal power plant loads decreasing month-on-month but increasing year-on-year [8] Section 4: Key Company Announcements and Sector Tracking - The report tracks individual company dynamics, including those of Guodian Power, Zhejiang Energy, China General Nuclear, and Huadian International, highlighting their performance and market positioning [8][29]

[Table_PicQuote] 气延续 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 基础化工行业 制冷剂配额调整落地，民爆需求持续区域分化 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 行业基础数据跟踪：据 wind 资讯，8 月 17 日~8 月 23 日，SW 基础 化工板块下降 3.11%，跑输万得全 A 指数 0.88pct；化工子行业下跌较 多，表现较差的有粘胶、纯碱、无机盐和民爆制品等板块，表现较好的 有氮肥板块。 ⚫ 化工品价格下跌较多:据百川、wind 资讯，在我们跟踪的 336 个产品 中,上涨、持平、下跌的产品数量分别 61 种、162 种、113 种,占比分 别为 18%、48%和 34%。化工品价格下跌较多。价格涨幅前五：液氯、 维生素 A(50 万 IU/g)、二乙醇胺、醋酸、维生素 B1(98%)。价格跌幅 前五：日本 LNG 现货、棉短绒(短丝)、亚洲柴油、焦炭、美国 HenryHub 期货。 ⚫ 制冷剂剩余配额调整落地。根据氟务在线公众号，生态环境部近日下 发最新配额政策，分配剩余 HFC-32 生产配额数量 3.5 万吨，分配配 额仅限 2024 年度有 ...

证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业：乘用车海外（出口）系列二 谁将拉动中国品牌海外份额持续向上 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 乘用车出口数据口径众多，如何从繁杂的数据中寻找最有效的线索 呢？综合考虑数据的前瞻性和可得性，并结合我们对车企量利分析的 核心需求，我们筛选出以下四个核心跟踪指标：海外终端份额、海外终 端售价、海外库存和本地化生产占比。 ⚫ 复盘：21-24H1（H1 指上半年）终端份额快速提升的背后驱动力拆解。 海外不包括美日韩市场后乘用车年销量区间为 3000-4000 万辆，以上 即为中国品牌车企份额有望突破的海外市场空间，24H1 中国品牌乘用 车在其中的终端加权市占率为 7.4%。从驱动力来看，新能源、俄罗斯 市场和俄罗斯以外燃油车市场共同拉动海外终端份额提升。根据各国 官网和 Marklines 数据，其中：（1）新能源：拉动力度逐年增强，21- 24H1 分别拉动份额提升 0.1/0.4/0.6/0.4pct，主要系在西欧、泰国和巴 西市场的接连突破；（2）俄罗斯市场：21-24H1 拉动份额提升 0.2/0.0 /1.2/1.3pct，主要是由于其市场 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several major insurance companies, including China Pacific Insurance (A/H), China Property & Casualty Insurance (H), China Life Insurance (A/H), and Ping An Insurance (A/H) [1] Core Views - The implementation of new accounting standards (IFRS 9 and IFRS 17) has significantly impacted the insurance industry, leading to increased profit volatility and reduced revenue scale [1] - The new standards have brought about major changes in the classification of financial assets and the measurement of insurance contract liabilities, affecting both the asset and liability sides of insurance companies [1] - The transition to the new standards has been smoother for listed companies, with non-listed companies expected to implement the standards by 2026 [1] IFRS 9 - Asset Reclassification and Profit Volatility - Financial assets are now classified into three categories (AC, FVOCI, FVTPL) instead of four, leading to a significant increase in FVTPL assets, which are more sensitive to market fluctuations [12][13] - The proportion of FVTPL assets has risen sharply, with companies like China Life, Ping An, and China Pacific seeing FVTPL ratios of 30.1%, 23.6%, and 25.8% respectively in 2023 [14] - The new classification has increased profit volatility, as changes in the fair value of FVTPL assets directly impact the income statement [16] IFRS 9 - Impairment Model Changes - The shift from the incurred loss model to the expected credit loss (ECL) model under IFRS 9 has led to more prudent asset allocation, with insurers focusing on lower-risk assets [18] - The ECL model requires insurers to recognize credit losses earlier, which has led to stricter asset quality reviews and a preference for low-risk investments [18] IFRS 17 - Insurance Contract Liability Measurement - IFRS 17 has introduced significant changes in the measurement of insurance contract liabilities, with a focus on better matching assets and liabilities [24] - The new standard has redefined insurance contracts, leading to a significant reduction in reported revenue, particularly for life insurance companies, due to the exclusion of investment components [25] - The introduction of the Contractual Service Margin (CSM) under IFRS 17 allows for the absorption of non-economic assumption changes, helping to smooth profit volatility [34] IFRS 17 - Financial Statement Changes - The new standard has simplified the balance sheet by consolidating various reserve accounts into a single insurance contract liability category [49] - The income statement now separates insurance service performance and investment performance, providing clearer insights into the sources of profit [49] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights that listed companies have successfully transitioned to the new accounting standards and recommends investing in major insurers like China Pacific, China Property & Casualty, China Life, and Ping An [1] Industry Impact - The new standards have led to increased profit volatility and reduced revenue scale, but the intrinsic value assessment logic, product strategies, and solvency systems remain unchanged [1] - The implementation of IFRS 9 and IFRS 17 has brought about a significant transformation in the insurance industry, with a focus on higher-quality development [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 26.86 CNY per share, unchanged from previous ratings [4][16]. Core Views - In the first half of 2024, the company's technical service revenue grew by 17.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring items, increased by 14.5% [2][9]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 2.0 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.0 billion CNY (up 16.9%) and 3.8 billion CNY (up 14.5%) before and after non-recurring items, respectively [2][9]. - The technical service and equipment manufacturing segments generated revenues of 1.63 billion CNY and 370 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year increases of 17.5% and 35.1%, respectively. The growth in technical services is attributed to the company's focus on strategic advantages and emerging business opportunities, particularly in intelligent and new energy testing [2][9][12]. Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 40.6%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the increased proportion of lower-margin equipment manufacturing [12][15]. - The net profit margin was 20.1%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year. The operating expense ratio was 14.9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with specific expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs showing varied changes [12][15]. - The company expects EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.90 CNY, 1.03 CNY, and 1.18 CNY per share, respectively [16]. Business Strategy and Market Position - The company is positioned as a rare player in the automotive testing sector, benefiting from opportunities in electric and intelligent vehicles. It aims to transform into a data service provider and index platform [15][16]. - The integration of inspection and testing resources with its controlling shareholder, China Inspection Group, is expected to enhance market competitiveness and drive growth in testing business volume and pricing due to regulatory upgrades and new standards [15][16].

[Table_Title] 恒立液压（601100.SH） 盈利能力回升，多成长曲线逐步兑现 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 降本措施有序推进，盈利能力稳步回升。（1）公司整体：公司 24H1 实 现收入 48.33 亿元，yoy+8.6%；归母净利润 12.88 亿元，yoy+0.7%； 扣非归母净利润12.40亿元，yoy-0.2%；毛利率为41.64%，yoy+2.6pct； 净利率为 26.7%，yoy-2.1pct。（2）汇兑损益&政府补助：24H1 相较 于同期少了 1.96 亿元的汇兑收益，多了 0.3 亿元的政府补助，若剔除 二者影响看，24H1 公司归母净利润 yoy+16.2%，高于收入增速；截至 2024 年 6 月末，公司共实施降本项目 300 余个，降本措施成效初显。 （3）单季度看：24Q2 公司实现营收 24.71 亿元，同比+22.1%，归母 净利润 6.86 亿元，同比+5.0%，扣非归母净利润 6.54 亿元，同比+1.7%， 相较于 24Q1 均实现大幅好转。 ⚫ 非挖液压件快速增长，线性驱动小批量供货。（1）非挖产品：24H1 公 司销售非标油缸 13. ...

[Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业 金价仍将稳步上行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 基本金属：海外降息预期再强化，预计基本金属价格震荡回升。美国、 欧洲制造业实际需求继续承压，美联储、欧洲央行降息预期均再强化， 以旧换新政策支撑内需改善，供给端短期扰动减小，预计基本金属价格 震荡回升。建议关注：洛阳钼业（A+H）、西部矿业、金诚信、中国铝 业（A+H）、云铝股份、天山铝业等。 钢铁：钢价及成本反弹，盈利面继续创历史新低，关注供给约束。供给 端，高炉开工环比下滑，钢厂盈利率继续下降，铁水供给约束明显。需 求端，淡季需求偏弱。成本端，预计低盈利率继续压制原料采购需求。 价利方面，供需格局短期弱化，购销差价预期偏弱，供给约束预期提 升，预计短期钢价震荡为主。建议关注：宝钢股份、华菱钢铁、久立特 材、抚顺特钢等。 贵金属：美联储释放鸽派信号，金价续涨动力强劲。据美联储，其 7 月 议息会议纪要显示，大多数官员倾向于在 9 月会议上降息，认为通胀 风险降低而就业风险上升；同时，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球 央行年会讲话上再次强调"就业下行风险增加"，关于货币政策表态整 体偏鸽，强化了市场 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 失效的 M1 ——银行投资观察 20240825 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 板块表现方面：本期（2024/8/19-2024/8/23），Wind 全 A 下跌 2.1%， 银行板块整体（中信一级行业）上涨 2.9%，排在所有行业第 2 位，跑 赢万得全A。国有大行、股份行、城商行、农商行变动幅度分别为 4.21%、 1.99%、2.82%、2.64%。恒生综合指数上涨 0.6%，H 股银行涨幅 1.5%， 跑赢恒生综合指数，跑输 A 股银行。 个股表现方面：Wind 数据显示 A 股银行涨幅前三为沪农商行上涨 10.24%、宁波银行上涨 5.95%、江苏银行上涨 5.87%，跌幅前三为浙 商银行下跌 2.48%、常熟银行下跌 1.63%、郑州银行下跌 1.13%。H 股银行涨幅靠前为渤海银行上涨 4.44%、中国银行上涨 2.29%。 银行转债方面：Wind 数据显示本期银行转债平均价格上涨 0.22%，跑 赢中证转债 1.23 个百分点。个券方面，涨幅靠前为成银转债（+1.80%）。 盈利预期方 ...

[Table_Title] 煤炭行业月报（2024 年 7 月） 库存压力缓解煤价有望好转，中期分红力度加大凸显股息优势 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 煤炭板块回顾：7 月煤炭板块承压，年初以来跑赢大盘 3.2pct。根据 Wind，7 月由于部分公司业绩预告低预期、来水较好火电承压、焦煤 产业链需求淡季等影响，煤炭（中信）板块下跌 8.7%，跑输沪深 300 指数 8.2 个百分点。年初以来，板块累计上涨 0.2%，仍跑赢沪深 300 指数 3.2 个百分点，排名中信各行业指数 6/30。目前板块 PE（TTM） 10.7 倍，而 PB（最新报告期）1.40 倍，估值均处于历史中等位置，其 中市盈率仅高于银行和建筑板块。 ⚫ 煤炭市场回顾：7 月煤价总体弱势，但火电同比降幅收窄，原煤产量环 比小幅回落。（1）国内煤价：7 月以来，动力煤和焦煤市场价表现偏弱， 长协煤价保持平稳；（2）国际煤价：7 月以来，澳洲高卡动力煤价表现 强势，API5 指数总体平稳，峰景矿硬焦煤价跌幅明显；（3）国内需求： 7 月火电仍受水电、高基数等因素影响，但同比降幅收窄，非电行业中 化工表现较好，钢铁、建材仍较 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行资负跟踪 20240825 票据利率明显下行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本期：2024/8/19~8/25，上期：2024/8/12~8/18，下期：2024/8/26~9/1。 ⚫ 央行动态：据 Wind 数据（下同），本期央行公开市场共开展 11,978 亿 元 7 天逆回购操作，利率 1.70%，逆回购到期 15,449 亿元，整体实现 净回笼 3,471 亿元。下期央行公开市场将有 11,978 亿元逆回购到期。本 期央行逆回购余额有所回落，但依旧明显高于季节性，周五逆回购余额 再次扩张，市场或已开始储备跨月流动性备付，银行间流动性中性偏紧。 下期政府债缴款压力不大，但跨月资金面扰动下预计逆回购余额维持高 位，同时关注下期 MLF 续作量价。 ⚫ 政府债融资：本期政府债净缴款 763 亿元，预计下期政府债净缴款约 559 亿元，较本期有所回落。8 月下旬政府债净融资有所放缓，全月累计规 模超季节性，关注后续节奏上的持续性。 ⚫ 资金利率：本期资金利率震荡回升，下期跨月，预计资金利率继续回升， ...