[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 房地[Table产_Title]及 物管行业 24 年第 22 周周报 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 一线城市积极跟进“517 新政”，政策传导初见成效 报告日期 2024-06-02 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现  本周政策情况：沪广深超预期跟进“517新政”，目前北京外均跟进。 14% 本周沪广深三个一线城市跟进“517新政”，目前除北京外，各省市均 4% -5%06/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 已跟进“517新政”，除沪深外首套、二套首付比均下调至15%、25%， -15% 首套、二套房贷利率下限均已取消。 -24%  本周基本面情况：政策传导初见成效，成交环比回升。据 Wind 及克 -34% 尔瑞，本周 53 城新房成交面积 506 万方，环比上升 23%，同比下降 房地产 沪深300 27%，受“517 新政”热度及月末成交节奏带动，本周新房成交热度 回升。二手房方面，本周14城网签口径成交203万方，环比上 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|家用电器 证券研究报告 [家Table用_Title电] 器行业 [Table_行Grade] 业评级 持有 前次评级 持有 加征关税政策落地，预计影响有限 报告日期 2024-06-02 核心[T 观abl 点e_Su ：mmar y ] [相Tab对le_市Pic场Quo表te] 现 ⚫ 部分家电品类对美出口加征关税豁免到期。2024年5月24日，美国 24% 15% 贸易代表办公室（USTR）宣布为即将豁免到期的429项特定产品（包 6% 括352项商品和77项与COVID相关商品）提供14天的过渡期，期 -2% 06/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 限由2024年5月31日延长至2024年6月14日，其中部分产品豁 -11% 免期限将进一步延长至 2025 年 5 月 31 日。就家电而言，相较过去 -20% 家用电器 沪深300 2~3 年持续获得加征关税豁免的品类，本次豁免范围剔除了部分零部 件、便携暖风机、太阳能热水器、部分型号立式冷柜、部分型号净水 器、部分型号电壁炉、扫地机器人、立式吸尘器、空气炸锅，仅剩部 [ ...

Xm l [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|计算机 证券研究报告 [计Table_算Title] 机行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 从 AIPC 的深度思考看主题的脆弱，坚定 报告日期 2024-06-02 基本面选股 [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 14% 2% 06/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 ⚫ 核心观点：1.以AIPC为例，主题基础薄弱，持续性有限。2.行业整体 -9% -21% 缺少基本面驱动，从估值水平和成长性看空间有限。3.市场化驱动领域 -32% 的工业软件、AI算力、智能汽车、医疗IT，以及预期差较大的部分金 -44% 融IT个股等成长性较好。仅仅是不同个股之间存在长短期空间和机会 计算机 沪深300 成本等差异。4.建议，行业配置淡化，基于基本面聚焦局部领域和个股。 ⚫ AI PC的空间和生态趋势对A股行业内公司而言未必很乐观。1.结论： [分Ta析ble师_A：uth or] 刘雪峰 对A股计算机行业而言，AIPC的市场空间恐较Android领域小、兑 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 证券研究报告 [公Table_用Title] 事业行业深度跟踪 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 电力系统的“破壁”：挖掘调节价值、加快绿电建设 报告日期 2024-06-02 核心[T 观able 点_Sum ：mary] [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 关注：浙能电力+华润电力+国电电力+广州发展+长江电力+桂冠电力 4% -1% ⚫ 从系统的破壁看电力体制改革，电改其实并不复杂。我们认为电力体 06/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 -6% 制改革用三点就可以概括：（1）绿电占比提升是大势所趋，过去10年 -10% 从3.3%升至15.5%，预计2027年就将提升至20%以上；（2）由于绿 -15% 电发电的不稳定，火电等调节电源的价值势必被挖掘，因此出台容量、 -20% 公用事业 沪深300 辅助服务等电价政策；（3）绿电竞争激烈，在加速装机的过程中，环 境价值、市场化交易有待推出。从步骤上来看，回顾去年 8 月提出的 电改金字塔：即首先要明确不同电源的各种价值、其次是通过全面的 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|国防军工 证券研究报告 国[Table防_Title军] 工行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 航空出海与大飞机进展加速，重视军工β回暖 报告日期 2024-06-02 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [分Ta析ble师_A：uth or] 孟祥杰 SAC 执证号：S0260521040002  我们重点强调关注民航、燃机出海，叠加国产大飞机、装备景气复苏 SFC CE No. BRF275 共振机遇。全球民航正处于新一轮补库存周期，空客、RR 订单维持 010-59136693 高景气，例如本周据“智慧西飞”公众号，5月27日至29日，欧洲 mengxiangjie@gf.com.cn 航空安全局（EASA）对中航西飞空客项目产品符合性和安全性进行 分析师： 吴坤其 了审核，中航西飞顺利通过EASA审核。5月27日，据“中国东方航 SAC 执证号：S0260522120001 空”微信公众号，东航正式接收新增订100架C919的首架机，机队 SFC CE No. BRT139 规模增至6架。我们认为全球民航市场或正逐 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gujing Gongjiu, with a target price of 306.41 CNY per share based on a 27x PE valuation for 2024 [4]. Core Views - Gujing Gongjiu has maintained its leading position in the Anhui province market due to its strong channel capabilities and timely reforms in response to macroeconomic changes [2]. - The company has outperformed the industry over the past three years, with a stock price increase of 5.2% compared to a 27.6% decline in the SW Baijiu II index [19]. - Gujing Gongjiu is well-positioned for national expansion, leveraging its superior channel management compared to Shanxi Fenjiu [2]. - The company's sales expense ratio is expected to decline as it benefits from economies of scale, with a significant portion of revenue coming from outside its home province [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 20,254 million CNY in 2023 to 33,957 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 21.0% [3]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 4,589 million CNY in 2023 to 8,859 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 30.7% [3]. - The EPS is forecasted to rise from 8.68 CNY in 2023 to 16.76 CNY in 2026 [3]. Market Dynamics - The Anhui white liquor market has seen rapid expansion, with the market size growing from approximately 250 billion CNY in 2017 to over 400 billion CNY in 2023, driven by a significant increase in the mid-to-high-end segment [26][27]. - Gujing Gongjiu has benefited from the third round of consumption upgrades in Anhui, with its products positioned in the mid-to-high-end price range [24]. Competitive Positioning - Gujing Gongjiu's channel strategy has evolved through five major phases, adapting to changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics [12][13]. - The company has successfully implemented a multi-channel strategy, enhancing its market presence and consumer engagement [17]. Management and Governance - The management team has extensive experience within the company, with a strong focus on aligning internal interests and enhancing operational efficiency [32][33]. - The current leadership has a proven track record in sales and marketing, contributing to the company's competitive edge in the market [34].

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|建筑材料 2024年5月31日 证券研究报告 [建Table_筑Title] 材料行业 国务院印发《2024—2025 年节能降碳行动方案》，建材行业有望受益 分析[T师ab：l 谢璐 分析师： 张乾 e_Author] SAC 执证号：S0260514080004 SAC 执证号：S0260522080003 SFC CE.no: BMB592 021-38003688 021-38003687 xielu@gf.com.cn gzzhangqian@gf.com.cn 请 注意，张乾并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 2024年5月29日，国务院印发《2024—2025年节能降碳行动方案》，增强“水泥纳入碳市场预期”和“落后 产能退出”预期，行业有望迎来新一轮供给侧改革。关于建材行业节能降碳，（1）首提“加强建材行业产量监 测预警”，我们判断：一是为建材尤其是水泥 “碳管理”做准备，2024年4月3日生态环境部就水泥熟料行业 温室气体排放核算与核查技术指南公开征求意见，其中，熟料产 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [房Table_地Title] 产行业 [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 沪广深放松，高能级城市有望进入上行周期 报告日期 2024-05-31 核心[T 观able 点_Sum ：mary] [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 ⚫ 一线超预期跟进“517新政”，精细化提振需求。上海、广州、深圳先 20% 9% 后放松购房政策，上海、深圳首套房最低首付降至20%，广州降至15%， -2% 05/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 非户籍社保要求年限上海主城从5年缩短至3年，广州从2年降至半 -12% 年。按揭利率方面，广州首套下调45bp，上海、深圳首套下调35bp， -23% 主要二线城市首套平均降幅21bp，一线利率降幅较大。此外，一线新 -34% 房地产 沪深300 政还包括二孩家庭购房、离异购房、公积金贷款、三套贷款等多维度的 放松。这是本轮周期一线放松中力度最强的一轮，购房门槛及购房成本 均为历史最低。一线城市放松显著强化资本市场对于政策态度的信心。 [分Ta析ble师_A： ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|机械设备 证券研究报告 [造Table_船Title] 行业跟踪报告（七） [Table_G行rade] 业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 集运价格回暖，探讨集装箱船订单二次提 报告日期 2024-05-31 速的可能性 [相Tab对le_P市icQ场uote表] 现 [Table_Summary] 10% 核心观点： 2% -6%05/23 08/23 10/23 01/24 03/24 05/24 ⚫ 下游航运景气度超预期，集运价格在多重因素驱动下迎来大幅上涨， -14% 带动船东盈利中枢改善。由于红海危机和地缘政治冲突造成船只绕航， -22% 导致有效运力紧张，以及终端需求复苏带来的运量增长，近期集运价格 -30% 机械设备 沪深300 持续上涨，带动船东盈利和资产负债表改善。根据各公司官网，多家全 球头部集装箱船东24Q1业绩显著环比提升，收入环比增速5%-20%， 利润环比扭亏，马士基和赫伯罗特提高了全年盈利预测的下限。 [分Ta析ble师_A：uth or] 代川 ⚫ 集装箱船东近期询价和下单积极，新船价格和二手船价上涨。在下游 SAC 执证号：S026051708 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 19.58 HKD and a fair value of 29.88 HKD per share [4]. Core Insights - The company's newly launched self-developed game "Let's Go Muffin" has shown excellent performance, significantly boosting the company's revenue. The game entered the top 10 best-selling list in its first week and reached the fourth position by May 28, 2024 [2][10]. - The self-developed games are expected to enhance user activity on the TapTap platform, with increased advertising revenue driven by intensified competition for user acquisition [2][28]. - Cost reduction and efficiency improvements are evident, with a decrease in overall expenses and a reduction in employee numbers from 2,327 in 2021 to 1,452 in 2023, leading to an expected improvement in profitability [2][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Breakthrough in Self-Developed Games - The self-developed game "Let's Go Muffin" launched in January 2024 in the Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan markets and in May 2024 in mainland China, achieving a top 10 position in sales shortly after launch [10]. - The game is expected to have a strong revenue performance, contributing positively to the company's overall financial results [10][13]. 2. Increased Activity on TapTap and Advertising Revenue Growth - The launch of "Let's Go Muffin" is anticipated to drive user growth on the TapTap platform, as the game requires a TapTap account for login, which may lead to increased advertising revenue due to heightened competition for user acquisition [28][29]. - The summer of 2024 is expected to see a high density of new game launches, which will likely increase user acquisition costs and advertising revenue [21][23]. 3. Financial Performance: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Gains - The company reported a revenue of 33.89 billion RMB in 2023, a slight decline of 1.22% year-on-year, but with a gross profit increase of 12.7% [38]. - The company has successfully reduced sales expenses by 6.23% to 8.65 billion RMB and R&D expenses by 20.89% to 10.16 billion RMB, indicating a focus on core products and cost efficiency [38][40]. - The net loss for the company narrowed significantly to 0.83 billion RMB in 2023 from 5.53 billion RMB in 2022, suggesting a positive trend in financial recovery [38]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are projected at 52.63 billion RMB, 62.46 billion RMB, and 66.74 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits expected to reach 5.58 billion RMB, 7.64 billion RMB, and 8.35 billion RMB [2][39]. - The report employs a segmented valuation method, estimating the game business at 72.09 billion RMB and the community business at 58.55 billion RMB, leading to a total fair valuation of 143.6 billion HKD [2].