Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [2] Core Viewpoints - In October 2024, the air conditioning production reached 14.06 million units, a year-on-year increase of 48.0%, while sales were 12.87 million units, up 37.9% year-on-year. Domestic sales accounted for 6.29 million units, increasing by 24.1%, and external sales were 6.58 million units, up 54.3% year-on-year [30][31] - The report recommends investing in companies such as Haier Smart Home and Hisense Home Appliances, which are expected to benefit from the policy of replacing old appliances with new ones. Other recommended companies include Hisense Visual, Aima Technology, Yadea Holdings, and XGIMI Technology, which are also expected to benefit from domestic demand recovery [37][61] - The report highlights a significant increase in retail data for major appliances during the week of November 11-17, 2024, with air conditioning offline sales up 319.2% and online sales up 252.9% year-on-year [47] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The white goods sector shows steady growth with stable ROE and high dividend advantages, likely benefiting from the old-for-new policy [37] Weekly Market Review (November 18-22, 2024) - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 2.6%, while the home appliance sector index decreased by 2.1% [42][46] Industry Overview - The report notes that in October 2024, the cumulative production of air conditioners from January to October was 166.7 million units, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, with cumulative sales of 167.71 million units, up 14.6% year-on-year [30][31] - The report discusses the trend of Chinese home appliance companies expanding into emerging markets, with exports to Latin America and Africa showing significant growth [61][63]

Investment Rating - The report provides a strong investment rating for the software and services industry, particularly highlighting NVIDIA's performance and growth potential [55]. Core Insights - NVIDIA's FY25Q3 results exceeded expectations with a revenue of $35.08 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 93.6% [14]. - The data center segment showed robust growth, with revenues increasing by 112% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for Hopper products [32]. - The gaming segment also performed well, with a revenue increase of 14.8% year-over-year, supported by the sales of GeForce RTX GPUs [41]. - The report anticipates continued strong demand for AI and data center products, projecting significant revenue growth through FY2026 [36]. Summary by Sections FY25Q3 Performance - NVIDIA achieved a revenue of $35.08 billion, a 93.6% increase year-over-year, with net profit reaching $19.31 billion, also up 108.9% [14][15]. - The gross margin was reported at 74.6%, with operating expenses decreasing to 12.2% of revenue [15]. Data Center Product Launches - The data center revenue reached $30.77 billion, up 112% year-over-year, with strong contributions from Hopper and Blackwell products [32]. - Blackwell's full production is expected to meet demand through FY2026, with significant sales anticipated in FY25Q4 [34]. Gaming Business - Gaming revenue was $3.28 billion, reflecting a 14.8% year-over-year increase, driven by the GeForce RTX 40 series [41]. - The introduction of new AI PCs is expected to enhance performance in gaming and creative applications [42]. Professional Visualization - Professional visualization revenue reached $490 million, up 16.8% year-over-year, primarily due to the adoption of RTX workstations [43]. Automotive Sector - The automotive segment reported $450 million in revenue, a 72% increase year-over-year, driven by demand for NVIDIA's Orin platform [44]. Performance Guidance - For FY25Q4, NVIDIA expects revenue to reach approximately $37.5 billion, with a projected gross margin of 73% [45]. - The company anticipates initial cost increases due to Blackwell's launch, with margins expected to improve in subsequent quarters [45]. Consensus Estimates and Valuation - Bloomberg consensus estimates project NVIDIA's revenues for FY2025 and FY2026 to be $128.6 billion and $194 billion, respectively, with significant year-over-year growth [48].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal market has shown a slight decline recently, with port thermal coal prices decreasing and the coking coal market remaining weak. However, with the onset of winter and increased demand for heating, coal prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise [5][6] - The introduction of the 2025 long-term coal contract policy indicates a positive outlook for coal prices, which are anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase [6] Market Dynamics - Recent market dynamics indicate that the CCI5500 thermal coal price index has dropped by 13 RMB/ton to 832 RMB/ton, while the annual long-term contract price for November is 699 RMB/ton, remaining stable month-on-month [5][11] - The domestic port thermal coal prices have slightly declined, with production area prices also showing a downward trend due to higher temperatures and slow coal consumption by power plants [5][11] - The coal production capacity utilization rate for 100 sample thermal coal mines is at 92.0%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase week-on-week [61] Industry Outlook - The coal industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, which should support coal prices in the medium term [6][11] - Key companies to watch include those with stable earnings and high dividends, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as those with low valuations and long-term growth potential like Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy [6] Key Companies - Notable companies with a "Buy" rating include: - China Shenhua [10] - Shaanxi Coal [10] - China Coal Energy [10] - Yanzhou Coal [10] - HuaiBei Mining [10] - Shanxi Coking Coal [10]

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns a **Buy** rating to the smart car industry, maintaining the same rating as the previous assessment [3] Core Views - **Smart driving enters the affordable era**: With technological cost reductions and increased supply of new models, high-end smart driving features are now available in vehicles priced below 200,000 CNY, leading to a rapid increase in penetration rates [3][25][28] - **Differentiation in OEM self-developed solutions**: OEMs are divided into three tiers based on their capabilities, with top-tier companies like Tesla leading in integrated chip and software development, while lower-tier OEMs rely on external suppliers like Huawei [3][53] - **Long-term opportunities for suppliers**: The differentiation in OEM capabilities ensures sustained demand for Tier 1 and Tier 2 suppliers, with AI chips and algorithm providers gaining prominence [3][159][175] Policy and Market Trends - **Policy advancements**: China's smart connected vehicle policies are progressing through four stages—road testing, demonstration applications, product access, and market regulation—with L3 autonomous driving expected to be fully operational soon [22][23] - **Penetration rate growth**: The penetration rate of high-end smart driving (excluding Tesla) increased from 1.6% in January 2023 to 5.2% in October 2024, driven by new models from brands like Xiaomi, Geely, and Changan [28][30] OEM Strategies and Competitive Landscape - **Top-tier OEMs**: Companies like Tesla, NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto are leading with integrated chip and software development, aiming for an Apple-like ecosystem [3][53] - **Mid-tier OEMs**: Traditional automakers like BYD, Changan, and Geely are adopting a mix of Huawei and NVIDIA solutions, focusing on self-developed algorithms for product differentiation [53][56] - **Lower-tier OEMs**: Companies with limited R&D capabilities, such as Seres and BAIC, rely on external solutions like Huawei's full-stack offerings [53][159] Supply Chain Impact - **Tier 1 suppliers**: The differentiation in OEM capabilities ensures long-term demand for Tier 1 suppliers, with competition varying across domains like smart driving, smart cockpit, and chassis control [159][160] - **Tier 2 suppliers**: AI chip and algorithm providers are gaining prominence, with NVIDIA, Huawei, and Qualcomm expected to dominate the high-end smart driving chip market [175][177] - **Emergence of Tier 0.5 suppliers**: Companies like Huawei and Momenta are evolving into Tier 0.5 suppliers by offering integrated solutions with product definition capabilities [180][181] Investment Recommendations - **OEMs to watch**: Huawei-backed companies like Seres, Changan, and BAIC, as well as leading smart driving OEMs like XPeng, Li Auto, and NIO [182] - **Key suppliers**: Tesla supply chain players like Yinlun, Top Group, and Xinquan, as well as companies benefiting from penetration rate growth like Bethel, Baolong, and Desay SV [182] - **Technical services**: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute is highlighted for its role in technical services [182]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2024-11-24 SFC CE No. BNU965 021-38003625 [T相关研究： able_DocReport] 银行投资观察 20241117:暂 2024-11-17 时较弱的流动性与银行投资 思路切换窗口 银行行业:财政发行加速不影 2024-11-17 响年底前货币宽松——银行 资负跟踪 20241117 [Table_Title] 跨境流动性跟踪 20241124 人民币小幅升值，中美利差收窄 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 本期观察区间：2024/11/16-2024/11/22，数据来源于 Wind、同花顺。 汇率走势：人民币小幅升值。根据同花顺，本期末 SDR 兑人民币汇率 为 9.47，人民币较上期末升值 0.33%，其中美元、欧元、日元、英镑 兑离岸人民币汇率较上期末分别变动+0.3%、-1.1%、+0.2%、-0.6%。 中美利差：中美利差小幅收窄。根据同花顺，本期末 10Y 中美国债利 差（中国-美国）为-2.3%，较上期末上升 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the utility industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The Guangdong electricity trading plan has been released, emphasizing three factors: electricity volume, electricity price, and cost transmission. The market scale is set to expand significantly, with the annual trading scale limit for the generation side increasing by 60 billion kilowatt-hours compared to 2024 [1][37] - The report suggests a more market-oriented approach in Guangdong's electricity pricing, reflecting both fixed and variable costs, and indicates a positive outlook on electricity price agreements due to stable coal prices and tight supply-demand dynamics [1][38] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on supply-demand dynamics rather than being overly pessimistic about electricity volume and price agreements, suggesting that the thermal power sector is transitioning to more stable profit margins [1][38] Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy Review - The Guangdong Provincial Energy Bureau has issued a notice regarding electricity market trading for 2025, which includes an increase in market scale and improvements in the spot market operation mechanism [1][37][38] Section 2: Industry Data Tracking - Recent data shows that domestic and international coal prices have stabilized, while coastal power plant loads have decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year [1][8] - Natural gas prices have significantly dropped, with recent weeks showing signs of stabilization [1][9] Section 3: Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - Several companies in the utility sector are highlighted with "Buy" ratings, including China Power, Huadian International, and others, with reasonable values projected for their stocks [3] Section 4: Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the interconnection of four main lines of focus within the electricity sector: electricity price expectations, capital operations, and the performance of undervalued green and hydropower sectors [1][38] Section 5: Stock Performance Tracking - The report notes that the electricity index has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index by approximately 21% since late September [1][38]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Hold" [4] Core Insights - The "stabilize real estate" and "local debt" policies have significantly improved expectations for the sector, with further policy support anticipated. Despite facing short-term challenges, the construction materials industry is expected to gradually stabilize, with opportunities emerging as various segments reach their bottom [29][36] - The retail construction materials sector shows strong resilience supported by demand for second-hand and existing home renovations, while leading cyclical material companies continue to generate excess profits at the bottom of the cycle. Focus is recommended on growth-oriented, high-valuation elasticity consumer building materials, cement and glass leaders with bottom-line improvements, and opportunities in structural growth sectors like pharmaceutical glass [29][36] Summary by Sections 1. Real Estate Transactions - Real estate transaction data indicates a rebound in October due to policy catalysts, but a marginal decline in November. New home transaction volume in 50 cities shows a cumulative year-on-year decline of 26.3% for 2024, with a slight recovery in November [29][30] - Second-hand home transactions in 13 cities show a cumulative year-on-year increase of 6.5% for 2024, with significant growth in October and November [29][30] 2. Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector benefits from stable long-term demand and increasing industry concentration. Leading companies are expected to have substantial growth potential despite the current downturn in new construction starts [41] - Key companies to watch include SanKeTree, Rabbit Baby, North New Materials, Weixing New Materials, China Liansu, Dongfang Yuhong, and East Peng Holdings, with additional attention on Jianlang Hardware and others [41] 3. Cement - Cement prices have seen a slight increase, with expectations of a fluctuating trend moving forward. The average national cement price is reported at 429 RMB/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 56 RMB/ton [29] - The industry is currently at a historical valuation low, with a positive outlook for companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [41] 4. Glass and Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is experiencing weak supply and demand, with electronic yarn prices remaining stable. The average price for 2400tex winding direct yarn is 3608 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous period [2] - Float glass prices have weakened, with an average price of 1453 RMB/ton, down 26.9% year-on-year. However, demand remains stable, and leading glass companies are currently undervalued [2][41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the ongoing deepening of investment-side reforms in the capital market, with a focus on the accelerated mergers of leading securities firms. The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is reported at 1.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a 21.8% decrease month-on-month. The margin balance stands at 1,845.17 billion yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.06% [2][22] - In the insurance sector, the introduction of standardized claims regulations is expected to enhance public perception of insurance, supporting long-term growth. The gradual rollout of growth-stabilizing policies is likely to benefit long-term interest rates and equity markets, maintaining a high profit growth rate for the year [2][26] - The report suggests focusing on stocks in the securities and insurance sectors, highlighting companies such as Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, and China Pacific Insurance [2][26] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance - As of November 22, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3,267.19 points, down 1.91%, while the Shenzhen Component Index is at 10,438.72 points, down 2.89% [19] 2. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary (a) Insurance - The insurance sector is experiencing a recovery phase, benefiting from strong demand for savings products. The long-term interest rates are low, and the asset side of insurance is awaiting marginal changes. The introduction of unified service standards for claims is expected to improve public sentiment towards insurance [22][26] (b) Securities - The capital market is advancing steadily, with significant reforms and mergers among leading securities firms. The report highlights the merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, which is progressing rapidly, with a shareholder meeting scheduled for December [27][32] 3. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed valuations and financial metrics for key companies in the sector, recommending a "Buy" rating for several firms, including China Ping An, New China Life, and China Pacific Insurance, among others [11][26]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - Base metals are expected to see demand expectations stabilize, with prices anticipated to fluctuate. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are decreasing, and domestic fiscal policies are gradually being implemented to support domestic demand recovery. Industrial metal supply remains weak, and high costs for electrolytic aluminum are expected to lead to price fluctuations in industrial metals. Attention is drawn to the results of the 2025 copper TC long-term contract negotiations. Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum (A+H), Western Mining, Jincheng Mining, China Aluminum (A+H), Yun Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [1][2] - In the steel sector, supply and demand are recovering, with steel prices slightly declining and profitability continuing to decrease. On the supply side, blast furnace operations have increased, but steel mill profitability is declining, with significant constraints on pig iron supply. Demand is expected to recover in the short term, with a focus on the implementation of macroeconomic policies. Cost pressures are likely to weaken profitability, suppressing raw material procurement demand. The supply-demand balance is expected to remain stable in the short term, with steel prices fluctuating. Recommended stocks include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Jiuli Special Materials, and Yongjin [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Performance of Nonferrous Metals Industry - From November 18 to November 22, the Shenwan Industrial Metal Index fell by 2.33% to 1808.41 points, while the Precious Metal Index rose by 2.41% to 14798.49 points. The Small Metal Index increased by 0.63% to 16775.14 points, and the New Metal Materials Index rose by 3.47% to 6606.18 points [26] 2. Metal Prices - Base metals prices showed mixed trends: LME copper rose by 0.02% to $8,972.50 per ton, LME aluminum fell by 1% to $2,630 per ton, LME lead increased by 3.43% to $2,018 per ton, LME zinc rose by 0.63% to $2,972 per ton, LME tin increased by 1.47% to $28,950 per ton, and LME nickel rose by 2.20% to $15,815 per ton. SHFE copper fell by 0.14% to ¥73,760 per ton, SHFE aluminum decreased by 1.73% to ¥20,420 per ton, and SHFE lead rose by 1.28% to ¥16,975 per ton [46][49] 3. Macroeconomic Overview - The report highlights the impact of macroeconomic policies on the metal industry, emphasizing the importance of government measures to stabilize economic growth and their potential effects on metal demand and pricing [1][2]

金融工程|量化投资专题 2024 年 11 月 25 日 证券研究报告 基于相似度的因子研究 多因子 Alpha 系列报告之(五十三) 报告摘要: 图:SIM corr 因子分组收益统计 数据来源:中证指数,广发证券发展研究中心 识别风险,发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 28 分析师: 张钰东 SAC 执证号: S0260522070006 0755-23487806 zhangyudong@gf.com.cn 安宁宁 SAC 执证号: S0260512020003 SFC CE No. BNW179 0755-23948352 anningning@gf.com.cn 张钰东并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 ● 研究背景:金融市场存在羊群效应,即股票之间存在一定领先滞后效应, 当某只股票收益率较高时,会吸引投资者的关注,而这种关注会溢出到 具有相似特征的股票上,即若相似股票在上一期获得较高收益时,预期 该股票本期可获得高收益。通过挖掘股票之间的相似性信息,可以捕捉 潜在的投资机会。 O 相似度刻画基本逻辑:结合近期学术成果,本报告从财务、市场特征等 指标相 ...