Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3][4]. Core Insights - The performance growth trend is alleviating, with leading companies showing outstanding results. In 2023, the lithium battery industry began a price decline, leading to a significant number of companies experiencing revenue declines. However, this trend has improved in 2024, with fewer companies reporting negative growth [34][38]. - The profit space is under pressure across the industry, but the battery segment is showing signs of recovery. The overall weighted ROE for the lithium battery industry has not yet recovered, but some leading companies are beginning to see improvements [48][49]. - The debt repayment capacity of leading companies has improved, while others are increasing leverage to alleviate financial pressure. The operating cash flow continues to flow towards battery leaders, indicating a concentration of financial strength in this segment [34][48]. - The financial framework indicates that the profitability of lithium iron phosphate and battery segments is approaching a turning point, with leading companies beginning to see improvements in ROE [34][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Growth - The downward trend in performance is easing, with leading companies performing well. In 2024 Q1-Q3, the battery segment's revenue concentration is increasing, accounting for 50.78% of the total industry revenue [34][38]. 2. Profit Space - The overall industry is under pressure, but the battery segment is showing early signs of recovery. Leading companies are stabilizing their gross margins, with notable improvements in companies like Ningde Times and others [48][49]. 3. Debt Repayment Capacity - Leading companies are experiencing reduced debt pressure, while others are increasing leverage. The overall industry is still in a clearing phase, with many companies facing extended payment terms [34][48]. 4. Operating Efficiency - The industry is under pressure due to a clearing phase, with a significant number of companies experiencing declines in fixed asset turnover rates. However, some leading companies are beginning to stabilize [34][48]. 5. Financial Framework - The profitability turning point for lithium iron phosphate and battery segments is approaching, with leading companies starting to see improvements in their financial metrics [34][48]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends re-evaluating balance sheets and focusing on leading companies in the battery and lithium iron phosphate materials sectors, as well as those in electrolyte, anode materials, copper foil, and separator segments [34][48].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies in the dairy industry, including Mengniu Dairy, Yili Group, and New Hope Dairy [4][5]. Core Insights - The current cycle of raw milk prices has experienced a significant decline, with prices dropping by 28.5% from their peak in 2024. The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.13 CNY/kg in late October 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% [57][60]. - The supply-demand imbalance has been exacerbated by weak demand recovery and the inertia of upstream production expansion, leading to a prolonged adjustment period for raw milk prices [57][60]. - The report anticipates that by 2025, the supply-demand dynamics for raw milk may return to balance, driven by a reduction in dairy cattle numbers and improved demand conditions [86]. Summary by Sections Current Cycle Summary - The raw milk market has been in a downward trend since 2024, with significant price adjustments observed. The average price of fresh milk has seen a year-on-year decline of 10.9%, 12.7%, and 14.9% in Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [57][60]. - The total supply of raw milk in Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 3.0%, 3.5%, and 5.3% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply situation [86]. Historical Cycle Review - Historical analysis shows that after the last major price decline in 2015-2016, leading companies like Yili and Mengniu saw a recovery in profitability as prices stabilized [57][60]. - The report highlights that during previous downturns, once prices stabilized, leading companies achieved significant excess returns compared to market indices [57][60]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the supply-demand gap is narrowing, with expectations for a gradual recovery in demand for dairy products. The profitability of leading dairy companies is expected to improve as the market stabilizes [86]. - The report emphasizes the competitive advantages of leading dairy companies in terms of sourcing, distribution, and branding, which will support their long-term stability in the market [86]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises continued monitoring of the supply adjustments and demand recovery in the dairy sector. It recommends focusing on leading companies such as Mengniu Dairy, Yili Group, and New Hope Dairy for potential investment opportunities [86].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for multiple companies in the textile and apparel industry, including 比音勒芬, 报喜鸟, 锦泓集团, 海澜之家, and others [6][7]. Core Insights - The 2024 Double Eleven sales period saw a significant increase in GMV, reaching 1,441.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year growth of 26.6% compared to 1,138.6 billion CNY in 2023 [2]. - The performance of the apparel sector during this period was commendable, with clothing sales on e-commerce platforms growing by 21.4% year-on-year [2]. - The competitive landscape on Tmall for various apparel sub-sectors remains stable, with slight changes in rankings among leading brands [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of online sales channels, which are crucial for the textile and apparel industry, as online retail for clothing grew by 4.1% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The total sales during the Double Eleven period for 2024 reached 1,441.8 billion CNY, with e-commerce platforms contributing 1,109.3 billion CNY and live-streaming platforms contributing 332.5 billion CNY, marking increases of 20.1% and 54.6% respectively [2]. - The top ten categories in sales included home appliances, mobile digital products, and clothing, with clothing maintaining its position [2]. Competitive Landscape - On Tmall, the top brands in men's clothing included 优衣库, 波司登, and 太平鸟, while 波司登 led in women's clothing [3]. - The overlap of top brands between Tmall and Douyin is low, indicating a distinct competitive environment on different platforms [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in various sub-sectors that performed well during the Double Eleven sales, particularly in casual wear and children's clothing [3]. - Companies such as 比音勒芬, 森马服饰, and 海澜之家 are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their strong performance and market position [3][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Views - Recent market dynamics indicate a slight decline in port thermal coal prices, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price index dropping by 2 RMB/ton to 853 RMB/ton. The annual long-term contract price for November at ports is 699 RMB/ton, remaining stable month-on-month. The overall market is weak, with coal prices expected to stabilize and potentially rebound due to upcoming winter storage demand and improved macroeconomic expectations [4][5][6] - The macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth have been implemented since late September, leading to improved expectations for the fourth quarter and the medium to long term. The increase in winter storage demand and supply constraints are expected to keep coal prices stable or slightly rising [5][6] Market Dynamics - Thermal coal prices at ports have shown a slight decline, with the CCI5500 thermal coal price index at 853 RMB/ton, down 2 RMB/ton week-on-week. The main production areas have seen stable or slightly rising prices, with some high-calorie coal types experiencing price increases [50][57] - The coal supply-demand balance remains relatively stable in the Shanxi and Inner Mongolia regions, while the overall market is weak due to high inventory levels and low downstream purchasing activity [4][5][6] Industry Outlook - The coal industry index has increased by 2.0%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.5 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 11.7%, also underperforming the CSI 300 index by 8.0 percentage points [108] - The report highlights key companies with stable earnings and high dividends, such as Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua, as well as companies with low valuations and long-term growth potential like Yanzhou Coal and China Coal Energy [5][6] Key Companies - Notable companies include: - Shaanxi Coal: Buy rating, with a reasonable value of 26.90 RMB/share and an estimated EPS of 2.18 RMB for 2024 [7] - China Shenhua: Buy rating, with a reasonable value of 44.13 RMB/share and an estimated EPS of 2.90 RMB for 2024 [7] - Yanzhou Coal: Buy rating, with a reasonable value of 24.91 RMB/share and an estimated EPS of 2.49 RMB for 2024 [7] - Huayang Co.: Buy rating, with a reasonable value of 10.96 RMB/share and an estimated EPS of 0.86 RMB for 2024 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haoyang Co Ltd (300833 SZ) with a target price of 59 08 RMB per share [1][3] Core Views - Haoyang Co Ltd's Q3 2024 performance fell short of expectations with revenue of 278 million RMB (-8 04% YoY -21 52% QoQ) and net profit of 55 million RMB (-36 50% YoY -45 87% QoQ) [1] - The company's overseas expansion continues with the acquisition and integration of Denmark's SGM and the establishment of a subsidiary in Vietnam [1] - Revenue is expected to grow to 1 329 billion RMB in 2024 1 601 billion RMB in 2025 and 1 935 billion RMB in 2026 [1][2] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue was 946 million RMB (-6 39% YoY) with net profit of 258 million RMB (-16 80% YoY) [1] - Gross margin remained stable at 51 48% in Q3 2024 while net margin dropped significantly to 20 29% (-9 01pct YoY -8 86pct QoQ) [1] - 2024-2026 EPS is forecasted at 2 95 3 52 and 4 22 RMB per share respectively [1][2] Valuation - The company is valued at 20x PE for 2024 based on its strong export position favorable order book and healthy cash flow [1] - EV/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 15 84 in 2022 to 5 49 in 2026 indicating improving valuation metrics [2][28] Growth Prospects - Revenue growth is projected at 1 9% in 2024 20 4% in 2025 and 20 9% in 2026 [2] - Net profit growth is forecasted at 2 0% in 2024 19 3% in 2025 and 19 7% in 2026 [2] Profitability - ROE is expected to improve from 14 7% in 2024 to 17 9% in 2026 [28] - Gross margin is projected to remain stable around 50% from 2024 to 2026 [28] Balance Sheet - Total assets are forecasted to grow from 2 747 billion RMB in 2024 to 3 250 billion RMB in 2026 [16][26] - Current ratio is expected to improve from 14 76 in 2024 to 12 13 in 2026 indicating strong liquidity [28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kedali (002850 SZ) with a target price of 128 18 yuan per share [6] Core Views - Kedali's 24Q3 financial performance showed strong profitability with revenue of 3 146 billion yuan (+10 35% YoY) and net profit of 368 million yuan (+28 70% YoY) [2] - The company's gross margin was 23 42% in 24Q3, slightly down by 0 40pct QoQ, while the net margin improved to 11 68% (+0 17pct QoQ) [2] - Kedali's overseas expansion and robot business are expected to drive future growth, with a focus on harmonic reducers and other core components [4] Financial Performance - For 24Q1-Q3, Kedali achieved revenue of 8 592 billion yuan (+10 60% YoY) and net profit of 1 016 billion yuan (+27 86% YoY) [2] - The company's expense control was effective, with a 24Q1-Q3 period expense ratio of 3 59% (-0 39pct YoY) and R&D expense ratio of 5 26% (-0 33pct YoY) [3] - Kedali's 24Q3 sales expense ratio was 0 34% (-0 04pct QoQ), and the management expense ratio was 2 40% (-0 38pct QoQ) [3] Profit Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow to 13 561 billion yuan in 2024, 16 889 billion yuan in 2025, and 19 579 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - Net profit is projected to reach 1 411 billion yuan in 2024, 1 736 billion yuan in 2025, and 2 097 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - EPS is forecasted to be 5 21 yuan in 2024, 6 41 yuan in 2025, and 7 74 yuan in 2026 [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's 2025 PE ratio is estimated at 17 08x, with an EV/EBITDA of 10 35x [5] - ROE is expected to improve from 11 8% in 2024 to 13 3% in 2026 [5] Overseas Expansion and Robot Business - Kedali has established overseas production bases in Germany, Sweden, and Hungary to meet the capacity needs of international customers [4] - The robot business, focusing on core components like harmonic reducers, is expected to contribute to future growth [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Gigadevice (603986 SH) with a target price of 102 82 yuan per share [1][3] Core Views - Gigadevice announced the acquisition of a 70% stake in Suzhou Saixin Electronics for 581 million yuan, with Gigadevice contributing 316 million yuan for a 38 07% stake [1] - Suzhou Saixin specializes in lithium battery protection and power management chips, with a unique single-wafer solution and patents Its products are used in wearable devices and power banks, with clients including Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo [1] - The acquisition strengthens Gigadevice's analog chip capabilities and enhances market competitiveness through synergies in supply chain and customer base [1] - Gigadevice plans to adjust its DRAM chip R&D project from LPDDR3 to LPDDR5 and add a new automotive electronics chip R&D project [1] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 7593 million yuan in 2024E to 10387 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 14 5% [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 1139 million yuan in 2024E to 2259 million yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 24 2% [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 1 71 yuan in 2024E to 3 39 yuan in 2026E [2] - ROE is expected to improve from 7 1% in 2024E to 11 2% in 2026E [2] Financial Ratios - Gross margin is projected to stabilize around 39% from 2024E to 2026E [12] - Net margin is expected to increase from 15% in 2024E to 21 7% in 2026E [12] - P/E ratio is forecasted to decline from 53 85 in 2024E to 27 14 in 2026E, indicating improving valuation [12] Strategic Adjustments - Gigadevice is shifting its DRAM chip R&D focus from LPDDR3 to LPDDR5 to align with industry trends [1] - A new automotive electronics chip R&D project has been added to expand its presence in the automotive sector [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Goertek Inc (002241 SZ) with a target price of 28 03 RMB per share [1][3] Core Views - Goertek's Q3 2024 financial performance was strong with significant profit growth despite a slight revenue decline [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 revenue: 69 646 billion RMB (-5 82% YoY) - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit: 2 345 billion RMB (+162 88% YoY) - Q3 2024 revenue: 29 264 billion RMB (+1 7% YoY) - Q3 2024 net profit: 1 120 billion RMB (+138 16% YoY) - The company's product lines are progressing well with improved profitability [1] - Goertek continues to focus on its "Precision Components + Smart Hardware" strategy [1] Business Strategy and Market Position - Goertek is maintaining its industry leadership position while developing new growth areas [1] - The company is actively expanding in emerging smart hardware products and automotive electronics [1] - AI integration in consumer electronics is expected to drive demand for Goertek's precision components [1] Financial Projections - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026: 0 80/1 04/1 32 RMB per share [1] - Revenue growth projections: - 2024: 3 6% (102 099 billion RMB) - 2025: 3 8% (105 954 billion RMB) - 2026: 10 9% (117 543 billion RMB) [2] - Net profit growth projections: - 2024: 152 7% (2 749 billion RMB) - 2025: 29 3% (3 556 billion RMB) - 2026: 27 4% (4 529 billion RMB) [2] Financial Ratios and Valuation - P/E ratio projections: - 2024: 29 91x - 2025: 23 12x - 2026: 18 16x [2] - ROE projections: - 2024: 8 3% - 2025: 9 9% - 2026: 11 4% [2] - EV/EBITDA projections: - 2024: 12 51x - 2025: 10 79x - 2026: 9 15x [2] Product Development - Goertek is focusing on: - Acoustic optical and microelectronic precision components - VR/MR/AR products - Smart wireless headphones - Wearable devices - Smart home products [1] - The company is building its GPS manufacturing system to enhance smart manufacturing capabilities [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 32.80 CNY per share based on a PE valuation of 47 times for 2025 [3][13]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in underwater acoustic electronic defense equipment, benefiting from the modernization and informatization of naval equipment, as well as the long-term strategic development of underwater defense systems [5][6]. - The recovery of downstream demand has led to a significant improvement in the company's performance in Q3 2024, with notable increases in net profit and operating income compared to the previous year [1][6]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by both underwater electronic defense products and non-acoustic business applications, with projected revenues of 40.45 billion CNY, 45.69 billion CNY, and 52.86 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating income of 1.872 billion CNY, a decrease of 3.49% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 21.50% to 149 million CNY [1]. - The gross margin improved by 2.50 percentage points to 35.55%, and the expense ratio decreased by 0.45 percentage points to 26.88% [1][6]. Revenue Projections - The company anticipates revenue growth rates of 12.6%, 12.9%, and 15.7% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to grow by 11.1%, 44.7%, and 41.7% in the same period [2][6]. Business Segments - Underwater electronic defense products are projected to see revenue growth of 18.53%, 15.93%, and 19.72% from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding gross margins of 30.0%, 32.0%, and 34.0% [6][12]. - Special electronic products are expected to grow by 15.16%, 18.66%, and 20.11% over the same period, maintaining a gross margin around 40% [7][12]. - The electronic information segment is projected to grow at a slower rate of 5.0% annually, with stable gross margins of 20% [7][12]. Valuation - The report suggests a reasonable value of 32.80 CNY per share based on a comparison with similar companies and historical valuation levels, reflecting the company's strong position in the defense equipment sector [13][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.19 CNY per share, based on a 20x PE valuation for 2024 [4][2]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 of 2024 met expectations, with revenues of 851 million CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 8.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 146 million CNY, down 28.47% year-on-year [1]. - The company is experiencing a drag on performance from its subsidiaries and joint ventures, with investment income from these entities showing losses in the current year compared to the previous year [1]. - New production capacity is being gradually released, particularly from the Mingde factory, which is expected to enhance the company's growth through synergies with its North American operations [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 1.23 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 1.5% [3]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 231 million CNY, reflecting a decline of 7.9% compared to 2023 [3]. - The company’s EPS is forecasted to be 0.96 CNY in 2024, with a gradual increase to 1.48 CNY by 2026 [3]. - The EBITDA is expected to be 379 million CNY in 2024, with a steady increase in subsequent years [3]. Performance Metrics - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was reported at 38.72%, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.70 percentage points [1]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 17.64%, down 3.71 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 9.3% in 2024, improving to 11.4% by 2026 [3][25].