债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.02.17 | | | 债 ——REITs 周报 本报告导读： 过去一周 REITs 指数整体上行，产权类 REITs 表现相对较好，其中仓储类和产业园 类 REITs 领涨，水利和保障房类 REITs 表现相对一般。 投资要点： | 板块补涨行情延续 | [Table_Authors] | 刘玉(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 021-38038263 | | ——REITs 周报 | | liuyu024100@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880523050002 | | 本报告导读： | | | | 过去一周 REITs 指数整体上行，产权类 REITs 表现相对较好，其中仓储类和产业园 | | 汤志宇(研究助理) | | 类 REITs 领涨，水利和保障房类 REITs 表现相对一般。 | | 021-38031036 | | 投资要点： | | tangzhiyu028695@gtjas.com | | | 登记编号 | S0880123070149 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 新 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a potential valuation recovery for the liquor sector, indicating that recent stock price movements have largely reflected market pessimism, with expectations of policy improvements supporting this outlook [1][2]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing a stable fundamental environment, with the "opening red" performance in 2025 aligning with expectations and a general post-festival stability in operations. The report anticipates a decline in the overall liquor market by less than 10%, with sales revenue expected to drop more than volume due to price declines [2]. - Recent macroeconomic policies have become more positive, with a focus on boosting consumption as a priority for domestic demand expansion. Initiatives such as the issuance of consumption vouchers are expected to stimulate related sectors, particularly dining [1]. - The report highlights that the liquor industry is currently facing high inventory levels, prompting companies to focus on inventory reduction and channel profitability. Major brands have begun controlling inventory and adjusting sales strategies to manage cash flow [2]. Summary by Sections - **Market Performance**: The liquor sector's performance during the "opening red" period in 2025 was in line with expectations, with a projected decline in market size of less than 10%. Mid to low-end liquor products are outperforming high-end counterparts [2]. - **Policy Environment**: Recent government policies are aimed at enhancing consumer spending, with specific measures to support income growth and consumption capabilities. This is expected to positively influence the liquor market [1]. - **Valuation and Stock Performance**: As of February 12, stock prices for major liquor brands have adjusted to reflect pessimistic market expectations, with valuations for key companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye at relatively low levels, suggesting potential for recovery [2].

Group 1: Economic Theory and Challenges - The "Balassa-Samuelson effect" indicates that differences in actual exchange rates and inflation levels between two countries are fundamentally determined by productivity differences in their tradable sectors, particularly manufacturing[1] - Higher productivity in the tradable sector leads to higher price levels and stronger currency purchasing power[1] - Despite significant productivity improvements in China, the country faces low price levels and exchange rate stability pressures, indicating a disconnect from classical theory[1] Group 2: Wage Transmission Issues - The transmission of productivity gains to wages, especially in the service sector, is crucial for the "Balassa-Samuelson effect" to hold[2] - Labor compensation in East Asian countries, including China, is generally lower than in Western countries, hindering the transmission of productivity to wages[2] - Since 2017, the growth rate of labor compensation in China has slowed, with a decline noted in 2021, despite significant productivity gains in manufacturing[2] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Implications - The allocation of fiscal funds is more important than the scale of spending; effective transmission of "productivity-wage-inflation" is essential for the "Balassa-Samuelson effect" to be realized[3] - Current market expectations for increased fiscal deficits and stimulus may reflect traditional investment-focused fiscal thinking, which may not yield the desired economic impact[3] Group 4: Risk Considerations - There are discrepancies between international and historical experiences compared to China's unique circumstances, which may affect the applicability of the findings[4] - Inconsistencies in statistical definitions across international comparative data may also pose challenges to the analysis[4]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in DeepSeek R1, highlighting its algorithm optimization that reduces performance requirements for computing chips, thus accelerating the adaptation of domestic computing power [1]. Core Insights - DeepSeek R1 is an open-source, low-cost solution that addresses the core bottleneck of advanced processes, facilitating the growth of domestic computing power. It offers excellent cost-performance ratio, matching the performance of o1 models and is expected to lead the domestic AI ecosystem [2]. - The demand for inference drives the expansion of total computing power, with ASIC chips taking on more inference tasks. DeepSeek R1's high inference performance is expected to promote the prosperity of inference chip clusters and AI applications, with long-term investments in AI infrastructure shifting towards inference computing [2]. - The performance of the distilled small model in DeepSeek R1 is impressive, accelerating the deployment of edge AI and significantly enhancing hardware experience, thus opening up growth opportunities for edge hardware [3].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for the AI industry, particularly focusing on the advancements in domestic AI infrastructure and chip technology [1]. Core Insights - DeepSeek R1 optimizes algorithms to reduce the performance requirements of computing chips, facilitating the adaptation to domestic computing capabilities. This shift is driven by increasing restrictions on overseas computing resources, making self-sufficient computing a necessary choice. The development of advanced domestic processes is expected to gain momentum [1]. - The AI infrastructure is shifting towards inference computing, where ASIC chips offer a higher cost-performance ratio in inference scenarios. Efficient and low-cost ASIC chips are anticipated to benefit from this trend [1]. - The R1 distilled small model demonstrates strong performance, accelerating the implementation of edge AI, thereby opening growth opportunities for edge hardware [1].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The long-term trend of gold pricing has shifted to being influenced by the RMB exchange rate, with current Shanghai gold serving as a good tool for hedging against exchange rate expectations [2][5] - The relationship between CPI and Shanghai gold premium is expected to reconnect once the level of early mortgage repayment returns to low levels, indicating a potential for gold to maintain its cost-effectiveness [2] - The central bank's resumption of gold purchases signals a stabilization of the exchange rate, but the probability of a significant gold market rally is low, with expectations leaning towards market fluctuations [3] - The actual interest rates of US Treasury bonds are identified as the main short-term pricing factor for gold, with recent fluctuations attributed to economic policy uncertainties related to the US elections [4] Summary by Sections Latest Views - The report highlights that the Shanghai gold premium is a reflection of market expectations regarding the exchange rate and is crucial for tracking cross-border capital flows [2] - The high level of swap premiums necessitates cautious judgment regarding future Shanghai gold premiums, suggesting that holding Shanghai gold is a favorable hedging strategy [2] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The resumption of gold purchases by the central bank is interpreted as a move to stabilize the exchange rate amidst a backdrop of diverging currency trends in Asia and the US Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting phase [3] - The future trajectory of gold prices will depend significantly on whether the economic cycles of the US and other major economies move in sync or diverge [3] Recent Currency and Gold Fluctuations - The report notes that the actual interest rates of US Treasury bonds have been a key factor in the short-term fluctuations of gold prices, with notable divergences occurring during significant geopolitical events [4] - The current low level of Shanghai gold premiums suggests a higher certainty in Shanghai gold compared to London gold [4] Underlying Logic of Recent Gold Surge - The report indicates that the monetary attributes of gold are no longer the primary pricing factors, with the central bank's gold purchases and gold ETF inflows being the main driving forces behind the recent gold market dynamics [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook on the growth potential of smart driving penetration rates [1]. Core Insights - The penetration rate of smart driving is expected to accelerate, particularly with the ongoing advancements from leading companies like BYD. The launch of BYD's "Tianshen Eye C" solution, which includes advanced hardware and features, is a significant development in this regard [1]. - The cost of smart driving technology is decreasing, and the price range for smart driving vehicles is also lowering, which is likely to sustain the growth in penetration rates. Technological advancements, such as DeepSeek, are expected to reduce the reliance on computing power and data, further lowering the entry barriers for smart driving solutions [2]. Summary by Sections - **Smart Driving Solutions**: BYD has introduced the Tianshen Eye C solution, featuring a three-camera setup and multiple radar systems, enabling high-speed NOA and intelligent parking capabilities. The solution aims for a 99% success rate in parking scenarios and is expected to be fully developed by the end of 2025 [1]. - **Vehicle Integration**: BYD plans to equip its entire lineup with the Tianshen Eye system, with 21 models set to launch, enhancing the accessibility of advanced smart driving features across various price segments [1]. - **Technological Advancements**: The integration of DeepSeek technology into BYD's architecture is anticipated to enhance AI capabilities in vehicles, promoting a dual-cycle of AI development between vehicle and cloud systems [2].

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in mobile pollution source exhaust catalyst manufacturers, specifically highlighting Zhongzi Technology and Aofu Environmental Protection as beneficiaries [2]. Core Insights - The air quality in China has shown continuous improvement, with the proportion of days with good air quality in urban areas rising from 83.1% in 2016 to 85.5% in 2023, and the average PM2.5 concentration decreasing by 29% [2]. - Mobile sources, including light-duty vehicles, have become the primary source of pollution, contributing significantly to total emissions. In 2023, the total emissions from motor vehicles amounted to 14.473 million tons, with CO, hydrocarbons (HC), NOx, and PM emissions being 7.252 million tons, 1.742 million tons, 4.814 million tons, and 46,000 tons respectively [2]. - The implementation of the National VI standard for light-duty vehicles has tightened emission limits by 40-50% compared to the National V standard, with specific limits for CO and HC increased by one-third [3]. Summary by Sections Emission Standards - The National VI standard was released in December 2016, with compliance required for all light-duty vehicles sold and registered from July 2020 for standard 6a and from July 2023 for standard 6b [3]. - The current standards have execution loopholes, which the proposed amendments aim to address by enhancing management measures, including parameter calibration and recall systems [3][4]. Pollution Sources - Fixed pollution sources have been effectively controlled, leading to significant improvements in air quality, while mobile sources remain a challenge [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for stricter enforcement of emission standards for mobile sources to mitigate their impact on air quality [2].

投资建议：我们判断当前光伏板块已处于预期底部位置，行业基本面底部企稳，供给侧积极变化正在发生，后续行 业景气上行与供需改善预期持续提升，板块机会有望显现，维持行业增持评级。建议重点关注：1）库存持续向 下，盈利有望率先改善的电池、硅片、光伏玻璃环节，以及各环节格局较优的龙头企业。2）新技术持续突破，BC 电池组件效率优势领先，铜浆、叠栅等技术创新逐步应用。 光伏景气回升价格持续修复,行业自律效果逐步显现。伴随行业自律持续推进,春节前后光伏产业链价格已开始呈现 全面上涨的态势。根据infolink报价，光伏硅片与电池片的价格近期均有明显上涨；硅业分会对于各品质的硅料的 周度报价也呈现全面上涨；组件环节最新的招标各家一线龙头企业积极响应协会成本以上价格的号召,海外如欧洲 市场价格也已开始酝酿涨势。一季度正处于光伏行业需求淡季，但是伴随行业自律持续推进，当前行业库存已处于 健康甚至是触底阶段，价格开始上涨趋势。我们判断，随着后续景气回升需求起量，结合行业自律与供给侧改革的 推进，光伏产业链价格有望进入全面上涨通道。 行业底部企稳板块机会显现，关注供需格局优化与新技术进展。当前光伏板块已处于预期底部位置，行业基本面正 ...

为深入洞察新消费趋势，国君轻纺刘佳昆团队从微观角度，结合问卷调查等方式，围绕"谷子、AI+、宠物经济"等当前消费热点，为投资者提供了解新消费趋势的不同视角。 与市场认知不同的 5 个核心发现： 调查概况：本次消费调查问卷统计时间为2025年1月28日-2月2日，共收集到156份问卷星有效答卷。被调查者年龄分布看，18-35岁占比近一半。 1、谷子经济日本IP全面占优？否！在非动漫IP领域，有5成年轻人倾向买国谷IP产品。 2、AI产品付费意愿不高？否！近8成年轻人正在使用AI产品，超过半数愿意付费。 3、宠物消费支出太高？否！大部分消费者宠物支出占比低于5%，每月低于500元。 4、微信小店渗透缓慢？否！已有3成消费者使用过，零食是主要购买品类。 5、以旧换新折扣吸引力有限？否！超8成消费者认为有吸引力，家电换新意愿最高。 根据本次调研，发现以下与市场认知不同的五点核心结论： 1. 谷子经济 国谷崛起，MOLLY等国谷非动漫类IP已经超越部分三丽鸥等经典日谷IP。此前市场认为谷子经济的核心IP主要来自日谷，其不仅在动漫 IP领域遥 遥领先，同时三丽鸥等经典IP日谷产品牢牢占据消费者心智；但问卷调查发现，国谷产 ...