本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 国投证券宏观定期报告 周度经济观察 ————国内财政压力突出，海外降息周期临近 袁方1束加沛2 张端怡（联系人）3 2024 年 08 月 27 日 内容提要 财政收入的持续收缩与支出的刚性，一定程度上体现了政府部门的收支矛 盾，预计这一过程在短期内难以明显改善。需要警惕其与经济减速的互相强化。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔会议上表态偏鸽，认为政策调整的时机已 经到来。这意味着 9 月美联储大概率首次降息，市场也在沿着这一方向开启降息 交易。美债收益率和美元指数下行正在途中，美股也将交易经济软着陆的场景。 在市场启动降息和经济软着陆交易的背景下，纳指表现远远强于中概股，表 明市场对基本面的变化高度敏感。因此尽管美国降息有助于我国货币政策的宽 松，但仅仅通过利率政策或许难以完全解决我国需求不足的问题。A 股或许仍处 于寻底过程中。 风险提示：（1）地缘政治风险 （2）政策出台超预期 1宏观分析师，yuanfang@essence.com.cn，S1450520080004 2宏观分析师，shujp@essence.com.cn，S1450523010002 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a 6-month target price of 23.66 CNY, corresponding to a 14 times dynamic price-to-earnings ratio for 2024 [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.73 billion CNY for H1 2024, a year-over-year decrease of 4.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 760 million CNY, down 8.5% year-over-year. The second quarter alone saw a revenue of 2.49 billion CNY, down 9.6% year-over-year, and a net profit of 360 million CNY, down 18.2% year-over-year [2][3]. - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, proposing a cash dividend of 5.0 CNY per 10 shares, totaling approximately 470 million CNY, which accounts for 62.2% of H1 2024 net profit [2]. - Despite short-term operational pressures, the company demonstrates confidence in its long-term development by maintaining a high dividend level [2]. Revenue Performance - In Q2 2024, the company's main sales channels showed a slight decline, with online sales of range hoods and gas stoves decreasing by 5% and 3% year-over-year, respectively. The company’s e-commerce performance is believed to be better than other channels [2]. - The company is actively expanding new channels, with offline retail channel revenue growth close to overall performance. However, the national residential completion area decreased by 21% year-over-year, impacting the engineering channel revenue [2]. - The revenue from the company's core products, including range hoods and gas stoves, showed relatively stable performance, with declines of 3%, 1%, and 4% for range hoods, gas stoves, and dishwashers, respectively [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 decreased by 2.4 percentage points year-over-year, with the difference between gross profit margin and selling expense ratio declining by 1.2 percentage points year-over-year, attributed to increased market competition and pressure from the real estate sector [3]. - Operating cash flow for Q2 2024 decreased by 420 million CNY year-over-year, primarily due to slower cash collection and increased maturity of bank acceptance bills [3]. - The company is expected to continue optimizing its product structure and improving operational efficiency, which may enhance long-term profitability [3]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 and 2025 are 1.69 CNY and 1.70 CNY, respectively [3]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024 is 10.68 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.59 billion CNY, reflecting a decrease from previous years [7][12]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to be 14.9% in 2024, with a slight decline in return on equity (ROE) to 13.7% [12][13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A" with a target price of 62.99 CNY over the next six months, corresponding to a 45x PE for 2024 [4][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2024, achieving a revenue of 2.427 billion CNY (+17.48%) and a net profit of 308 million CNY (+49.92%) [1]. - The gross margin improved significantly to 42.05% (+7.84 percentage points) in the first half of 2024, driven by an optimized product mix and increased sales of proprietary brands [2]. - The company’s proprietary brands have gained popularity among consumers, with sales during the 618 shopping festival exceeding 470 million CNY, a 40% increase year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a net profit margin of 12.71% (+2.75 percentage points) and a net profit of 308 million CNY, with a significant increase in gross margin [2]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.329 billion CNY (+14.48%) and a net profit of 160 million CNY (+32.64%) [1]. - The company expects net profits for 2024 to reach 560 million CNY, with growth rates of +30.6% for 2024, +25.3% for 2025, and +25.0% for 2026 [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully expanded its distribution channels, focusing on online direct sales complemented by a broad offline distribution network [3]. - The proprietary brand strategy has led to a stable increase in market share, positioning the company to maintain its leading status in the pet food market [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy - A" with a target price of 10.35 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE of 15x for 2024 [4][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q2 2024, achieving 100 million CNY, which represents a year-on-year growth of 131.5%. The non-recurring net profit also reached 100 million CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 88.0% [1][3]. - The revenue for the first half of 2024 was 1.39 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 42.4%. Notably, overseas revenue accounted for 1.2 billion CNY, growing by 54.5% year-on-year, which constitutes 85.9% of total revenue [2][3]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was 31.4%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by higher overseas orders and lower raw material costs, particularly stainless steel, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 5.9% [3][2]. - The company effectively controlled its expenses, with sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios improving year-on-year, contributing to a net profit margin increase of 4.6 percentage points [3][2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.36 billion CNY, with a net profit forecast of 249.8 million CNY, reflecting a growth trajectory [8][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 0.71 CNY in 2024, with a projected net profit margin of 9.9% [10][8]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is anticipated to reach 19.0% by 2024, indicating strong profitability [10][8].

公司快报 2024 年 08 月 27 日 视源股份(002841.SZ) Q2 收入延续快速增长 事件：视源股份公布 2024 年半年度公告。公司 2024H1 实现收 入 101.2 亿元，YoY+21.4%；实现归母净利润 5.0 亿元，YoY-17.8%。 经折算，Q2 单季度实现收入 56.3 亿元，YoY+22.8%；实现归母净 利润 3.2 亿元，YoY-0.5%。随着国内经济环境改善，公司教育业 务和企业会议业务有望迎来复苏。 Q2 收入延续快速增长：2024Q2 公司收入保持快速增长，我们判 断主要受海外业务和生活电器业务增长拉动。根据公司公告， 2024H1 公司海外业务、生活电器业务分别增长 69%、61%。公司海 外 ODM 业务一方面不断加强与品牌客户的合作关系，稳固存量市 场份额；另一方面积极获取欧洲、印度教育信息化带来的设备需 求。同时，公司通过不断丰富升级产品矩阵、强化与微软等头部 客户的战略合作推动海外自主品牌业务的发展。受国内教育平板 行业采购需求疲软影响，我们判断 Q2 公司教育业务有所承压。根 据公司公告，2024H1 公司教育业务收入下降 14%。 Q2 盈利能力同比 ...

公司快报 2024 年 08 月 27 日 浪潮信息(000977.SZ) 中报业绩高增，以全栈能力满足 AI 算力需求 事件概述： 近日，浪潮信息发布《2024 年半年度报告》。上半年，公司实现营业 收入 420.64 亿元，同比增长 68.71%；实现归母净利润为 5.97 亿元， 同比增长 90.56%；扣非归母净利润 4.22 亿元。归母净利润与扣非归 母净利润与此前发布的业绩快报区间保持一致，营收增速高于业绩快 报中 60%的初步测算。 单季度业绩维持高增长趋势，服务器产业链龙头地位稳固 2023 年第四季度以来，公司单季度业绩维持高增长态势。2023 年 Q4 实现营业收入 177.70 亿元（YoY+6.04%），归母净利润 9.96 亿元 （YoY+86.52%）；2024 年 Q1 实现营业收入 176.07 亿元（YoY+85.32%）， 归母净利润 3.06 亿元（YoY+64.39%）；2024 年 Q2 实现营业收入 244.57 亿元（YoY+58.49%），归母净利润 2.91 亿元（YoY+129.01%）。我们认 为，单季度业绩持续高增长，或为公司全年的业绩高增奠定基础。 截 ...

证券研究报告 小家电Ⅲ 投资评级 买入-A 维持评级 6 个月目标价 37.62 元 股价 (2024-08-26) 31.49 元 交易数据 总市值(百万元) 2,706.42 流通市值(百万元) 2,706.42 总股本(百万股) 85.95 流通股本(百万股) 85.95 12 个月价格区间 25.0/39.69 元 升幅% 1M 3M 12M 相对收益 4.4 10.7 3.1 绝对收益 1.9 3.0 -7.3 李奕臻 分析师 相关报告 Q1 经营明显改善，业绩实现 扭亏 2024-04-25 [Table_Finance1] (亿元) 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 主营收入 9.0 12.7 13.4 16.8 20.3 净利润 -1.2 -0.5 0.7 1.3 1.7 每股收益(元) -1.45 -0.59 0.84 1.56 2.01 每股净资产(元) 5.50 4.71 5.79 6.88 8.29 公司快报 2024 年 08 月 27 日 倍轻松(688793.SH) Q2 经营效率提升，费用率下降 事件：倍轻松公布 2024 年半年度报告。公司 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 64.25 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current stock price of 53.88 CNY as of August 26, 2024 [2][7]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable revenue growth and significant improvement in operational quality, with a reported revenue of 20.455 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.72%, and a net profit of 3.189 billion CNY, up 12.76% year-on-year [1][6]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In H1 2024, the pharmaceutical segment achieved revenue of 4.069 billion CNY, a growth of 9.6% year-on-year, with core products like Yunnan Baiyao aerosol spray exceeding 1.2 billion CNY in sales, growing over 30% [2]. - The health products segment reported revenue of 3.144 billion CNY, slightly down, but net profit increased by 1.7% to 1.231 billion CNY, with a gross margin improvement of 0.7 percentage points [2]. - The traditional Chinese medicine resources segment saw revenue of 0.894 billion CNY, a growth of approximately 22% year-on-year, while the provincial pharmaceutical company maintained stable revenue at 12.19 billion CNY [2]. Financial Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 29.30% in H1 2024, an increase of 1.75 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 15.59%, up 1.67 percentage points [6]. - Operating cash flow reached 3.262 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 44.84%, indicating improved cash management [6]. - The company’s projected revenues for 2024 to 2026 are 39.667 billion CNY, 41.449 billion CNY, and 43.327 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.593 billion CNY, 5.070 billion CNY, and 5.537 billion CNY [7][9]. Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for 2024 to 2026 are 20.9, 19.0, and 17.4 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend [7][9]. - The company maintains a high dividend yield, projected to increase from 2.8% in 2022 to 5.2% by 2026 [9].

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 2024 年 08 月 26 日 通策医疗(600763.SH) 业绩增长阶段性承压，继续夯实口腔医 疗基础设施 事件： 2024 年 8 月 23 日，公司发布 2024 年中期报告。2024 年上半年公 司实现营业收入 14.11 亿元，同比增长 3.52%；实现归母净利润 3.10 亿元，同比增长 1.77%；实现扣非归母净利润 3.06 亿元，同比增长 4.33%。单季度来看，2024 年 Q2 公司实现营业收入 7.02 亿元，同 比增长 2.04%；实现归母净利润 1.37 亿元，同比增长 0.85%；实现 扣非归母净利润 1.35 亿元，同比增长 4.49%。 业绩增长阶段性承压，种植业务恢复两位数增长。 2024 年 H1 公司口腔医疗门诊量达到 171 万人次，同比增长 8%左右， 营业收入和净利润同比基本持平，我们推测主要受消费降级影响，业 绩增长阶段性承压。分业务来看：2024 年 H1 种植业务实现营业收入 2.55 亿元，同比增长 11.3%，恢复两位数增长，我们推测主要得益于 集采持续放量和客单价逐步平稳；2024 年 H1 正 ...

2024 年 08 月 26 日 恺英网络(002517.SZ) 海外新游起量，下半年产品储备丰富 事件： 998345867 公司发布 2024 年半年报：1）2024 年上半年公司实现营收 25.55 亿 元，同比增长 29.28%；归母净利润 8.09 亿元，同比增长 11.72%；扣 非净利润 8.01 亿元，同比增长 18.55%；2) 2024 年 Q2 单季公司实现 营收 12.48 亿元，同比增长 22.13%；归母净利润 3.83 亿元，同比减 少 11.85%；扣非净利润 3.77 亿元，同比减少 3.30%;3）公司拟每 10 股派息 1 元（含税），合计派息金额超过 2 亿元。 上半年营收和净利实现双位数增长, 海外新游开始起量。 1）分业务看，2024 年上半年公司移动游戏业务收入 20.95 亿元，同 比增长 23.42%，为收入增长主力；信息服务业务收入 3.97 亿元，同 比大幅增长 76.59%。公司业绩增长，主要系公司复古情怀的《原始传 奇》《热血合击》《敢达争锋对决》等长线产品的稳定运营，创新品类 的《仙剑奇侠传：新的开始》《石器时代：觉醒》等产品贡献增量， 以及收购浙江 ...