[Table_Main] 公司研究|国防军工|电子信息化 证券研究报告 国博电子(688375)公司首次覆盖 2024年03月17日 报告 [Table_Invest] [Table_TTit/leR] 组件领军者，多维度发力未来可期 买入|首次推荐 ——国博电子(688375)公司首次覆盖报告 [报Ta告ble要_S点um：m ary] [当Ta前b价le_：T a rgetPr7ic2e.4] 6元  T/R组件领军者，军民领域齐头并进 国博电子背靠中电科 55 所，T/R 组件技术积累深厚，目前是国内面向各军 [基Ta本bl数e_据Ba se] 工集团销量最大的有源相控阵 T/R 组件研发生产平台，同时公司设计的射 52周最高/最低价（元）： 96.09 / 53.28 频集成电路多项指标达到国际先进水平，在射频芯片新产品上取得突破，是 A股流通股（百万股）： 176.97 全球范围内具备 GaN 射频模块批量供货能力的极少数企业之一。近 5 年， A股总股本（百万股）： 400.01 公司的营业收入和净利润持续稳定增长，并积极开展技术研发和市场开拓， 流通市值（百万元）： 12823.18 募投项目 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Jahwa (600315) [6][10]. Core Views - The company faced revenue and profit pressure in 2023 due to multiple internal and external factors, but profitability has been optimized. The revenue for 2023 was CNY 6.598 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 500 million, an increase of 5.93% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company is undergoing organizational restructuring, which is expected to enhance growth potential in the future. The average age of newly recruited and replaced personnel is around 30 years, with a focus on digital operations and sales management [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In 2023, the skincare category achieved revenue of CNY 1.994 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.98%, while the personal care and baby products category saw a revenue decline of 13.35% to CNY 1.856 billion [4]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 58.97%, up 1.85 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin increased to 7.58%, up 0.94 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Channel Performance - Online and special channels generated revenue of CNY 1.773 billion and CNY 361 million, respectively, with e-commerce channels growing by 4.6% year-on-year. Interest e-commerce saw growth exceeding 100% [4]. - The company closed 82 counters and stores in the department store channel, with a total of 574 counters and stores remaining by the end of the year [4]. Future Projections - The report forecasts revenue for 2024-2026 to be CNY 7.370 billion, CNY 8.033 billion, and CNY 8.650 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at CNY 633 million, CNY 742 million, and CNY 848 million [6][11].

[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 证券研究报告 2024 年 2 月金融数据印象 在资本市场上，这个现象会映射为持续性的 risk-off，毕竟在风险偏好上， 银行的风险偏好是显著低于非银的，因此，银行的资本权重越大，资产风格越 向债券倾斜，这比起 2016 年的债券市场牛平行情，有了更坚实的基本面。 库存周期，经济增长也能稳住，但这也不解决长期问题，如果实体的资产负债 表不扩张，基本面也会有隐忧。 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|---------|-------| | [Table_Index] 主要数据： | | | | 上证综指： | 3054.64 | | | 深圳成指： | 9612.75 | | | 沪深 300 ： | 3569.99 | | | 中小盘指： | 3549.36 | | | 创业板指： | 1884.09 | | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 / 6 资料来源：Wind，国元证券研究所 资料来源：Wind，国元证券研究所 同样重要的是，财政也没法出清这些资金： 资料来源：Wind，国元证券研究所 资 ...

[Table_Title] 宏观研究报告 证券研究报告 2024 年 03 月 17 日 宏观与大类资产周报：有为方治 投资要点： | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------|--------------------------------------| | 投资建议： | 2024.03.12 | | | 宏观经济：虽然金融周期至此，但当前靠全球定价的库存周期，经济增长 | | | | 也能暂时性稳住，经济基本面不是定价资产的核心线索。 | [Table_Author 报告作者 | ] | | 资产配置：流动性梗阻现象映射在资产配置上就是持续性的 risk-off ，这 | 分析师 | 杨为敩 | | 超出了周期定义的范畴。 | 执业证书编号 | S0020521060001 | | | 邮箱 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating to the telecommunications and electronics industry, anticipating continued high prosperity and performance realization from related enterprises [3]. Core Insights - The telecommunications sector is experiencing a positive market trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.60%, and the ChiNext Index by 4.25% during the week of March 11-15, 2024. The Shenwan Communications Index increased by 1.30% [3][10]. - The report highlights the significant investment by China Telecom Quantum Group, which plans to invest 1.9 billion yuan to acquire a controlling stake in Guoshield Quantum, marking a strategic move in the quantum technology sector [3][4]. - The global quantum computing market is projected to grow from $1.1 billion in 2022 to $7.6 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48.1% [3]. Market Overview - The telecommunications sector's index rose by 0.43% this week, with the highest increase in the communication engineering and services sub-sector, which saw a rise of 7.66% [10][13]. - Individual stocks within the telecommunications sector showed significant gains, with Putian Technology leading at 36.15%, followed by Mingpu Optoelectronics at 35.42% and Huaxing Chuangye at 27.54% [15]. Key Company Announcements - China Telecom's quantum group has launched its first operational quantum communication solution, which has surpassed one million users, and has developed several benchmark cases in quantum security applications [3][4]. - Notable company announcements include: - Yitong Technology reported a revenue of 182 million yuan for 2023, a decrease of 46.12% year-on-year [30]. - Fuzhida reported a revenue of 815 million yuan for 2023, an increase of 0.82% year-on-year [30]. - Tianfu Communication's preliminary report indicated a revenue of 1.939 billion yuan, up 62.07% year-on-year [30]. Suggested Investment Focus - The report suggests focusing on the computing power industry chain and satellite internet as potential investment directions [3]. - Recommended stocks include: - Computing Power: Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Yuanjie Technology, Huhua Electric, and Industrial Fulian [4]. - Satellite Communication: Haige Communication, Fuzhida, China Telecom, Zhenlei Technology, and Fudan Microelectronics [4].

[Table_Main] 行业研究|能源| 能源Ⅱ 证 券研究报告 能源Ⅱ行业研究报告 2024年03月15日 [Table_Invest] [Ta海ble_外Titl变e] 压器供需错配，国产厂商出海加速 推荐|首次 ——变压器行业深度研究报告 [报Ta告ble要_S点um：m ary] [过Ta去bl一e_年Pic市Q场uo行te]情  需求端：多重因素驱动，海外变压器需求有望持续高涨 27% 海外变压器需求高涨的驱动因素在于：1）发电侧：大量新能源项目积 15% 压，带动电网升级扩容的需求。2）电网侧：欧美等发达经济体电网老 3% 化，变压器等关键电力设备存在更换需求。3）用电侧：北美制造业回 -9% 流带动工业用电力设备需求，终端电气化和算力持续驱动电力需求增 -20% 长。变压器是电网的关键设备，其新增和更换容量有望持续增长。根 3/15 6/14 9/13 12/13 3/13 据IEA，APS下预计2022-2030年变压器的需求增加到3.5 TW/年。 能源Ⅱ 沪深300 从结构来看，配电端的变压器需求占比更高。 资料来源：Wind  供给端：变压器扩产受限制，美国本土供给不足依赖进口 [ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index within the next six months [5][17]. Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved, and it is well-positioned to benefit from the explosive demand for AI hardware in the digital economy [2][4]. - Despite a short-term revenue decline due to business restructuring, the company has seen substantial growth in its AI server market share and overall profitability across its business segments [3][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of 476.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.94% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.04 billion yuan, an increase of 4.82% year-on-year [2][10]. - The fourth quarter saw revenue of 147.52 billion yuan, down 2.15% year-on-year, and net profit of 7.56 billion yuan, down 8.72% year-on-year [2]. Revenue Breakdown - Cloud computing revenue reached 194.31 billion yuan, with AI server products accounting for nearly 50% of this segment, reflecting a significant market share increase [3][11]. - The communication and mobile network equipment segment generated 278.98 billion yuan, with notable growth in high-speed switches and routers [3][11]. - Industrial internet revenue was 1.65 billion yuan, with the company contributing to the establishment of nine world-class lighthouse factories [3][12]. Profitability - The gross margins for cloud computing, communication and mobile network equipment, and industrial internet were 5.08%, 9.80%, and 49.81%, respectively, showing year-on-year increases [3][12]. - The cloud computing segment achieved its highest gross margin since its IPO in 2018, driven by the rising share of AI-related products [12][14]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for computing hardware, with projected revenues of 543.77 billion yuan, 604.90 billion yuan, and 677.56 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][6]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 24.58 billion yuan, 28.20 billion yuan, and 32.44 billion yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 18x, 16x, and 14x [5][6]. Strategic Positioning - As a leader in the digital economy, the company is poised to capitalize on the AI hardware demand surge, with a strong focus on R&D and a robust patent portfolio [4][14]. - The company has established a global digital management system that enhances production flexibility and supply chain resource management, positioning it favorably for future growth [14].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7]. Core Viewpoints - The company focuses on brand building and enhancing brand visibility through collaborations with top celebrities and media, achieving over 5.5 billion brand touches in 2020 [1]. - The company has a comprehensive channel strategy, emphasizing both B2B and B2C channels, with a significant focus on enhancing the capabilities of its distributors [2][4]. - The company has seen a steady increase in the number of distributors, reaching 3,285 by Q3 2023, although this represents a slight decline from the previous year due to a focus on optimizing distributor performance [3][4]. - The company’s revenue from customized seasoning products has shown significant growth, with a 23.25% year-on-year increase in Q1-Q3 2023 [28]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin have improved, with Q1-Q3 2023 gross margin at 36.89% and net margin at 14.31%, reflecting effective cost management [59]. Summary by Sections Brand Strategy - The company has engaged in high-profile collaborations to enhance brand recognition, including partnerships with celebrities and media outlets, resulting in substantial brand exposure [1]. Distribution Channels - The company employs a dual-channel strategy, focusing on both B2B and B2C, with a strong emphasis on enhancing distributor capabilities and expanding its market reach [2][4]. - The number of distributors has increased significantly since the company's listing, although recent adjustments have led to a slight reduction in distributor count to focus on performance [3]. Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of approximately 4.48 billion yuan for 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 31.17% [19]. - The revenue from the company's main products, including hot pot base and Chinese cuisine seasonings, accounted for 88.49% of total revenue in 2022, with steady growth observed [20]. Market Position - The company holds a strong position in the hot pot seasoning market, with its brands "Good People" and "Big Red Robe" collectively capturing a significant market share [72]. - The customized seasoning segment is rapidly growing, driven by increasing demand from the restaurant industry, with a notable rise in the number of clients served [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2024 performance shows significant growth, with estimated net profit attributable to the parent company ranging from 40 to 48 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 80.29% to 113.15% [5] - The growth is driven by the rapid development of new energy and energy storage data center businesses, with new energy vehicle-related revenue increasing and customer structure optimization [5] - The company has expanded its energy storage and data center liquid cooling pipeline systems, with batch production starting for energy storage systems and small-scale supply for data center server systems [5] - The company is promoting integrated supply and efficiency improvements, enhancing customer stickiness and supply value through rubber + nylon integrated pipelines and self-made components [5] Financial Forecasts - The report raises the company's net profit forecast for 2023-2025 to 164, 236, and 293 million yuan, respectively, with basic earnings per share of 0.76, 1.09, and 1.35 yuan [5] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 776.49 million yuan in 2021 to 1,992.86 million yuan in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.25% [10][13] - The company's net profit margin is projected to remain stable at around 14.80% to 14.88% from 2023 to 2025 [10] Valuation - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 23.40 in 2023 to 13.12 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation [5][13] - The target price is set at 21.8 yuan, with a 6-month target period [9] Business Highlights - The company's new energy business is accelerating, with key customers including major brands such as BYD, Geely, and Li Auto [5] - The company has established partnerships with over 40 clients in the energy storage sector and is a key supplier for a major domestic data center client [5] Historical Performance - The company's stock price has shown a downward trend over the past year, underperforming the CSI 300 index [16]

[Table_Invest] 增持|首次推荐 资料来源：Wind、Ifind、国元证券研究所整理 图 1: 公司收入、归母净利及增速……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 6 图 17: 公司分地区经销商数量及增速 . 图 23: 公司分档次白酒收入及增速…………………………………………………………………… 14 [Table_Main] 公司研究|日常消费|食品、饮料与烟草 证券研究报告 [Table_TargetPrice] 金徽酒(603919)公司首次覆盖报告 2024 年 03 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 陇上美酒，C 端置顶 ——金徽酒（603919）首次覆盖报告 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 金徽酒：甘肃领先酒企，深耕西北、布局全国 1）甘肃领先酒企。公司是我国甘肃省领先酒企，地处秦岭腹地、嘉陵江畔， 毗邻世界自然遗产九寨沟。2022 年，公司收入/归母净利为 20.12/2.80 亿 元，2011-2022 ...